5. ANALISIS DAN PEMBAHASAN
6.3 Keterbatasan Penelitian
1. Hasil regresi ini belum dikontrol. Saran untuk penelitian berikutnya perlu untuk mengontrol variabel.
2. Variabel terikat pertumbuhan perusahaan pada firm growth model hanya diproksi dari pertumbuhan tenaga kerja. Saran untuk penelitian berikutnya diharapkan bisa menambah berbagai pendekatan lainnya.
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LAMPIRAN
Pengolahan Data Model Kebertahanan Perusahaan (Firm Survival) Hasil Estimasi Kebertahanan Perusahaan (Metode Regresi Probit)
probit kebertahanan ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor krisis Iteration 0: log likelihood = -934.83585
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -895.65507 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -895.39805 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -895.39805
Probit regression Number of obs = 1751 LR chi2(5) = 78.88 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -895.39805 Pseudo R2 = 0.0422 --- kebertahanan | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- ln_ukuran | .1503224 .0359549 4.18 0.000 .079852 .2207927 ln_produktv | .0630023 .0352624 1.79 0.074 -.0061107 .1321153 ln_intkapital | .0619655 .0149908 4.13 0.000 .032584 .0913471 rasioekspor | .0024003 .0009152 2.62 0.009 .0006065 .004194 krisis | -.158459 .0703852 -2.25 0.024 -.2964114 -.0205066 _cons | -.4151607 .2425925 -1.71 0.087 -.8906332 .0603118 ---
Nilai Marjinal Probit
dprobit kebertahanan ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor krisis Iteration 0: log likelihood = -934.83585
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -895.73941 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -895.39814 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -895.39805
Probit regression, reporting marginal effects Number of obs = 1751 LR chi2(5) = 78.88 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -895.39805 Pseudo R2 = 0.0422 --- kebert~n | dF/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| x-bar [ 95% C.I. ] ---+--- ln_uku~n | .0438948 .0104575 4.18 0.000 4.35779 .023398 .064391 ln_pro~v | .0183969 .0102909 1.79 0.074 6.80975 -.001773 .038567 ln_int~l | .0180942 .0043591 4.13 0.000 1.94291 .00955 .026638 rasioe~r | .0007009 .0002667 2.62 0.009 30.0232 .000178 .001224 krisis*| -.0465374 .0207733 -2.25 0.024 .4506 -.087252 -.005823 ---+--- obs. P | .7744146
pred. P | .7852357 (at x-bar)
--- (*) dF/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1
Goodness of Fit
lstat
Probit model for kebertahanan --- True --- Classified | D ~D | Total ---+---+--- + | 1356 395 | 1751 - | 0 0 | 0 ---+---+--- Total | 1356 395 | 1751 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as kebertahanan != 0
--- Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 100.00% Specificity Pr( -|~D) 0.00% Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 77.44% Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) .% --- False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 100.00% False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 0.00% False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 22.56% False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) .% --- Correctly classified 77.44%
Uji Multikoleniaritas (Pearson Correlation)
corr ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor krisis (obs=1751)
| ln_uku~n ln_pro~v ln_int~l rasioe~r krisis ---+--- ln_ukuran | 1.0000 ln_produktv | 0.2988 1.0000 ln_intkapi~l | 0.0707 0.0066 1.0000 rasioekspor | 0.2350 0.0430 0.2400 1.0000 krisis | -0.0496 0.1409 -0.0563 -0.2296 1.0000
Tabel Signifikansi Variabel Secara Parsial
kebertahanan perusahaan 1 2 3 4 5 6 ln_ukuran 0.197216 0.150322 (5.90)*** (4.18)*** [0.03343] [0.03595] ln_produktv 0.098851 0.063002 (3.04)*** (1.79)* [0.03250] [0.03526] ln_intkapital 0.07651 0.061966 (5.31)*** (4.13)*** [0.01442] [0.01499] rasioekspor 0.00448 0.0024 (5.27)*** (2.62)*** [0.00085] [0.00092] krisis -0.21296 -0.15846 (-3.20)*** (-2.25)** [0.06661] [0.07038] observasi 1759 1759 1759 1751 1759 1751
*** signifikan pada α<0.01 ; ** signifikan padaα<0.05 ; * signifikan pada α<0.1
Pengolahan Data Model Pertumbuhan Perusahaan (Firm Growth) Hasil Estimasi Pertumbuhan Perusahaan (Metode OLS)
reg pertumbuhan ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 1356 ---+--- F( 4, 1351) = 14.88 Model | 9.13149007 4 2.28287252 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 207.337811 1351 .153469882 R-squared = 0.0422 ---+--- Adj R-squared = 0.0393 Total | 216.469301 1355 .159755942 Root MSE = .39175
--- pertumbuhan | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- ln_ukuran | -.0769563 .0109322 -7.04 0.000 -.0984023 -.0555102 ln_produktv | .0534715 .0109001 4.91 0.000 .0320886 .0748544 ln_intkapital | .0034316 .0043254 0.79 0.428 -.0050535 .0119168 rasioekspor | .0004783 .0002669 1.79 0.073 -.0000452 .0010018 _cons | -.077733 .0769877 -1.01 0.313 -.2287615 .0732955 --- Uji Heteroskedastisitas hettest
Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity Ho: Constant variance
Variables: fitted values of pertumbuhan
chi2(1) = 22.60 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Hasil Regresi Pertumbuhan Perusahaan dengan Robust Error
reg pertumbuhan ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor, ro
Linear regression Number of obs = 1356 F( 4, 1351) = 13.10 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.0422 Root MSE = .39175 --- | Robust
pertumbuhan | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- ln_ukuran | -.0769563 .0113395 -6.79 0.000 -.0992013 -.0547113 ln_produktv | .0534715 .0112417 4.76 0.000 .0314184 .0755246 ln_intkapital | .0034316 .004069 0.84 0.399 -.0045506 .0114139 rasioekspor | .0004783 .0002327 2.06 0.040 .0000218 .0009347 _cons | -.077733 .0703145 -1.11 0.269 -.2156705 .0602045 ---
Uji Sample Selection Bias (Model Heckman)
heckman pertumbuhan ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor, select (kebertahanan=ln_ukuran ln_produktv ln_intkapital rasioekspor krisis) Iteration 0: log likelihood = -1561.167
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -1545.9135 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -1545.2911 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -1545.2741 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -1545.2741
Heckman selection model Number of obs = 1751 (regression model with sample selection) Censored obs = 395 Uncensored obs = 1356 Wald chi2(4) = 53.81 Log likelihood = -1545.274 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 --- | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
---+--- pertumbuhan | ln_ukuran | -.066746 .0115718 -5.77 0.000 -.0894262 -.0440657 ln_produktv | .0572723 .0112503 5.09 0.000 .0352221 .0793225 ln_intkapital | .0077406 .004651 1.66 0.096 -.0013752 .0168564 rasioekspor | .0006795 .0002818 2.41 0.016 .0001272 .0012318 _cons | -.2298327 .0914927 -2.51 0.012 -.4091552 -.0505102 ---+--- kebertahanan | ln_ukuran | .1643398 .0370745 4.43 0.000 .0916752 .2370044 ln_produktv | .058515 .0353246 1.66 0.098 -.0107198 .1277499 ln_intkapital | .0596187 .0150178 3.97 0.000 .0301844 .089053 rasioekspor | .0022416 .0009147 2.45 0.014 .0004488 .0040344 krisis | -.1537011 .0684618 -2.25 0.025 -.2878837 -.0195184 _cons | -.4406296 .2439486 -1.81 0.071 -.9187601 .0375009 ---+--- /athrho | .4613945 .1494266 3.09 0.002 .1685237 .7542653 /lnsigma | -.8985222 .0313328 -28.68 0.000 -.9599335 -.837111 ---+--- rho | .4312201 .1216406 .1669462 .6376867 sigma | .4071709 .0127578 .3829184 .4329595 lambda | .1755803 .0539797 .069782 .2813785 --- LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) = 1.92 Prob > chi2 = 0.1663
Tabel Signifikansi Variabel Secara Parsial
pertumbuhan perusahaan 1 2 3 4 5 ln_ukuran -0.05699 -0.07691 (-5.59)*** (-7.03)*** [0.0102] [0.01094] ln_produktv 0.031419 0.05325 (2.97)*** (4.82)*** [0.01057] [0.0110] ln_intkapital 0.003754 0.003403 -0.88 -0.79 [0.00429] [0.00433] rasioekspor 0.000091 0.000486 -0.35 (1.77)** [0.00026] [0.00027] observasi 1363 1363 1363 1356 1356
*** signifikan pada α<0.01 ; ** signifikan pada α<0.05 ; * signifikan pada α<0.1
Hasil Regresi Persamaan Cobb-Douglas (MPK dan MPL)
regress ln_valueadded ln_capital ln_labor, robust
Linear regression Number of obs = 940 F( 2, 937) = 644.93 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.6538 Root MSE = 1.0188 --- | Robust
ln_valuead~d | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- ln_capital | .1299184 .0212905 6.10 0.000 .0881359 .171701 ln_labor | .6881546 .0305717 22.51 0.000 .6281576 .7481516 _cons | -1.138432 .3136395 -3.63 0.000 -1.753949 -.522915 ---