VI. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
6.2 Saran Penelitian Lebih Lanjut
Spesifikasi model dalam penelitian ini masih dapat terus dikembangkan lebih lanjut. Perbaikan dapat dilakukan dalam bentuk pengembangan model ekonometrik, seperti penggunaan teknik ekonometrik spasial, mengingat emisi di suatu negara dapat mempengaruhi emisi di daerah tetangga.
Mengingat perilaku hubungan emisi gas rumah kaca dan pendapatan per kapita merupakan hubungan yang melibatkan beberapa fase pembangunan, maka penyempurnaan juga dapat dilakukan dengan menambah rentang data waktu penelitian lebih lama lagi dan menambah jumlah subjek (negara) kajian dengan performansi ekonomi yang lebih bervariasi untuk mendapatkan hasil estimasi yang lebih akurat.
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 57, 85-101.
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Kementerian Keuangan. 2010. Analisis Kebijakan Fiskal Untuk Penurunan Emisi GRK Sektor Energi: Pendekatan Model AGEFIS-2. Badan Kebijakan Fiskal. Jakarta.
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Lampiran 1. Hasil Estimasi Negara Maju Dengan Eviews A. Negara Maju Berpendapatan Tinggi (OECD)
(1) PLS
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 22:24 Sample: 1970 2006
Included observations: 37 Number of cross-sections used: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -18.88748 4.873638 -3.875438 0.0001
X1? 2.083818 1.024544 2.033899 0.0427
X2? -0.065085 0.053766 -1.210532 0.2269
R-squared 0.501110 Mean dependent var -4.625251 Adjusted R-squared 0.498391 S.D. dependent var 0.487610 S.E. of regression 0.345347 Sum squared resid 43.77005
Log likelihood -130.1149 F-statistic 184.3166
Durbin-Watson stat 0.010080 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(2) FEM
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 21:23 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -44.00733 1.916241 -22.96545 0.0000
X1? 7.720551 0.400904 19.25787 0.0000
X2? -0.377465 0.020969 -18.00124 0.0000
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_AUS--C 0.364719 _CAN--C 0.445520 _FRA--C -0.391533 _DEU--C 0.141210 _ITA--C -0.390207 _JPN--C -0.188435 _KOR--C -0.178930 _NZL--C -0.411388 _GBR--C -0.037114 _USA--C 0.646158 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Adjusted R-squared 0.939618 S.D. dependent var 0.487610
S.E. of regression 0.119820 Akaike info criterion -1.373766
Sum squared resid 5.139703 Schwarz criterion -1.246841
Log likelihood 266.1467 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.323350
F-statistic 523.0063 Durbin-Watson stat 0.088311
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(3) REM
Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/17/10 Time: 21:23
Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -43.81529 1.915586 -22.87305 0.0000
X1? 7.675330 0.400500 19.16438 0.0000
X2? -0.374863 0.020949 -17.89433 0.0000
Random Effects (Cross)
_AUS--C 0.361559 _CAN--C 0.441475 _FRA--C -0.388789 _DEU--C 0.139853 _ITA--C -0.387207 _JPN--C -0.187406 _KOR--C -0.174838 _NZL--C -0.407326 _GBR--C -0.036532 _USA--C 0.639210 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.232035 0.7895 Idiosyncratic random 0.119820 0.2105 Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.700725 Mean dependent var -0.391245
Adjusted R-squared 0.699094 S.D. dependent var 0.222892
S.E. of regression 0.122267 Sum squared resid 5.486399
F-statistic 429.6477 Durbin-Watson stat 0.082465
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.390455 Mean dependent var -4.625251
(4) REDUNDANT FIXED EFFECTS TESTS
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Pool: POOL
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 298.972357 (9,358) 0.0000
Cross-section Chi-square 792.523113 9 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 21:23 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -18.88748 4.873638 -3.875438 0.0001
X1? 2.083818 1.024544 2.033899 0.0427
X2? -0.065085 0.053766 -1.210532 0.2269
R-squared 0.501110 Mean dependent var -4.625251
Adjusted R-squared 0.498391 S.D. dependent var 0.487610
S.E. of regression 0.345347 Akaike info criterion 0.719540
Sum squared resid 43.77005 Schwarz criterion 0.751271
Log likelihood -130.1149 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.732144
F-statistic 184.3166 Durbin-Watson stat 0.010080
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(5) HAUSMAN TEST
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 17.148678 2 0.0002
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
X1? 7.720551 7.675330 0.000324 0.0120
X2? -0.377465 -0.374863 0.000001 0.0046
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 21:24 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -44.00733 1.916241 -22.96545 0.0000
X1? 7.720551 0.400904 19.25787 0.0000
X2? -0.377465 0.020969 -18.00124 0.0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.941418 Mean dependent var -4.625251
Adjusted R-squared 0.939618 S.D. dependent var 0.487610
S.E. of regression 0.119820 Akaike info criterion -1.373766
Sum squared resid 5.139703 Schwarz criterion -1.246841
Log likelihood 266.1467 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.323350
F-statistic 523.0063 Durbin-Watson stat 0.088311
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B. Negara Maju Berpendapatan Tinggi (Non OECD) (1) PLS
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 22:00 Sample: 1970 2006
Included observations: 37 Number of cross-sections used: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -16.90151 5.870250 -2.879181 0.0042
X1? 1.678300 1.167845 1.437091 0.1515
X2? -0.045344 0.057877 -0.783456 0.4339
R-squared 0.425643 Mean dependent var -4.576247 Adjusted R-squared 0.422513 S.D. dependent var 0.852016 S.E. of regression 0.647468 Sum squared resid 153.8520
Log likelihood -362.6676 F-statistic 135.9878
Durbin-Watson stat 0.090827 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(2) FEM
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 20:41 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37
Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -40.20607 3.881316 -10.35887 0.0000
X1? 6.790490 0.781231 8.692039 0.0000
X2? -0.321476 0.039281 -8.183977 0.0000
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_BRB--C -1.262639 _BRN--C 0.067094 _CYP--C -0.284589 _KWT--C 0.666852 _MLT--C -0.536100 _QAT--C 1.040478 _SAU--C -0.299547 _SGP--C -0.334263 _TTO--C 0.344370 _ARE--C 0.598345 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.815588 Mean dependent var -4.576247
Adjusted R-squared 0.809922 S.D. dependent var 0.852016
S.E. of regression 0.371461 Akaike info criterion 0.889149
Sum squared resid 49.39801 Schwarz criterion 1.016074
Log likelihood -152.4926 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.939565
F-statistic 143.9373 Durbin-Watson stat 0.286896
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(3) REM
Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/17/10 Time: 20:42
Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -39.60067 3.875580 -10.21800 0.0000
X1? 6.645437 0.778853 8.532334 0.0000
X2? -0.313100 0.039135 -8.000557 0.0000
Random Effects (Cross)
_BRB--C -1.237602 _BRN--C 0.042289 _CYP--C -0.265382 _KWT--C 0.647125 _MLT--C -0.512769 _QAT--C 1.004585 _SAU--C -0.292690 _SGP--C -0.321693 _TTO--C 0.357540 _ARE--C 0.578597
Effects Specification
S.D. Rho
Cross-section random 0.548314 0.6854
Idiosyncratic random 0.371461 0.3146
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.261937 Mean dependent var -0.506542
Adjusted R-squared 0.257915 S.D. dependent var 0.433840
S.E. of regression 0.373729 Sum squared resid 51.26008
F-statistic 65.12371 Durbin-Watson stat 0.275159
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.256751 Mean dependent var -4.576247
Sum squared resid 199.0930 Durbin-Watson stat 0.070845
(4) REDUNDANT FIXED EFFECTS TESTS
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Pool: POOL
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 84.111658 (9,358) 0.0000
Cross-section Chi-square 420.350012 9 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 20:41 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -16.90151 5.870250 -2.879181 0.0042
X1? 1.678300 1.167845 1.437091 0.1515
X2? -0.045344 0.057877 -0.783456 0.4339
R-squared 0.425643 Mean dependent var -4.576247
Adjusted R-squared 0.422513 S.D. dependent var 0.852016
S.E. of regression 0.647468 Akaike info criterion 1.976582
Sum squared resid 153.8520 Schwarz criterion 2.008313
Log likelihood -362.6676 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.989185
F-statistic 135.9878 Durbin-Watson stat 0.090827
(5) HAUSMAN TEST
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 6.494883 2 0.0389
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
X1? 6.790490 6.645437 0.003709 0.0172
X2? -0.321476 -0.313100 0.000011 0.0134
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/17/10 Time: 20:42 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -40.20607 3.881316 -10.35887 0.0000
X1? 6.790490 0.781231 8.692039 0.0000
X2? -0.321476 0.039281 -8.183977 0.0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.815588 Mean dependent var -4.576247
Adjusted R-squared 0.809922 S.D. dependent var 0.852016
S.E. of regression 0.371461 Akaike info criterion 0.889149
Sum squared resid 49.39801 Schwarz criterion 1.016074
Log likelihood -152.4926 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.939565
F-statistic 143.9373 Durbin-Watson stat 0.286896
Lampiran 2. Hasil Estimasi Negara Berkembang Dengan Eviews A. Negara Berkembang Berpendapatan Menengah
(1) PLS
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 22:28 Sample: 1970 2006
Included observations: 37 Number of cross-sections used: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 8.503874 2.933229 2.899152 0.0040
X1? -4.599946 0.723389 -6.358887 0.0000
X2? 0.335029 0.044355 7.553336 0.0000
R-squared 0.623552 Mean dependent var -6.340743 Adjusted R-squared 0.621500 S.D. dependent var 0.808038 S.E. of regression 0.497124 Sum squared resid 90.69745
Log likelihood -264.9021 F-statistic 303.9507
Durbin-Watson stat 0.012444 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(2) FEM
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 05:45 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2.800265 1.136249 -2.464481 0.0142
X1? -1.983816 0.283799 -6.990220 0.0000
X2? 0.184873 0.017661 10.46763 0.0000
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_BRA--C -0.771328 _MYS--C -0.238527 _MEX--C -0.148372 _ZAF--C 0.743085 _TUR--C 0.160240 _CHN--C 0.942596 _EGY--C 0.110100 _IND--C -0.100220 _IDN--C -0.440580 _THA--C -0.256994 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.961504 Mean dependent var -6.340743
S.E. of regression 0.160957 Akaike info criterion -0.783459
Sum squared resid 9.274811 Schwarz criterion -0.656534
Log likelihood 156.9399 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.733043
F-statistic 812.8794 Durbin-Watson stat 0.119720
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(3) REM
Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/19/10 Time: 05:46
Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2.766515 1.146912 -2.412144 0.0163
X1? -1.990732 0.283582 -7.019961 0.0000
X2? 0.185216 0.017646 10.49637 0.0000
Random Effects (Cross)
_BRA--C -0.768549 _MYS--C -0.237213 _MEX--C -0.147175 _ZAF--C 0.741836 _TUR--C 0.160112 _CHN--C 0.938647 _EGY--C 0.109469 _IND--C -0.101068 _IDN--C -0.439854 _THA--C -0.256205 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.510238 0.9095 Idiosyncratic random 0.160957 0.0905 Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.862154 Mean dependent var -0.328393
Adjusted R-squared 0.861403 S.D. dependent var 0.432511
S.E. of regression 0.161018 Sum squared resid 9.515103
F-statistic 1147.699 Durbin-Watson stat 0.116617
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.589877 Mean dependent var -6.340743
Sum squared resid 98.81078 Durbin-Watson stat 0.011230
(4) REDUNDANT FIXED EFFECTS TESTS
Pool: POOL
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 349.205148 (9,358) 0.0000
Cross-section Chi-square 843.684005 9 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 05:46 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 8.503874 2.933229 2.899152 0.0040
X1? -4.599946 0.723389 -6.358887 0.0000
X2? 0.335029 0.044355 7.553336 0.0000
R-squared 0.623552 Mean dependent var -6.340743
Adjusted R-squared 0.621500 S.D. dependent var 0.808038
S.E. of regression 0.497124 Akaike info criterion 1.448120
Sum squared resid 90.69745 Schwarz criterion 1.479851
Log likelihood -264.9021 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.460723
F-statistic 303.9507 Durbin-Watson stat 0.012444
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(5) HAUSMAN TEST
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 2.275096 2 0.3206
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
X1? -1.983816 -1.990732 0.000123 0.5334
X2? 0.184873 0.185216 0.000001 0.6462
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 05:47 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37
Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2.800265 1.136249 -2.464481 0.0142
X1? -1.983816 0.283799 -6.990220 0.0000
X2? 0.184873 0.017661 10.46763 0.0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.961504 Mean dependent var -6.340743
Adjusted R-squared 0.960321 S.D. dependent var 0.808038
S.E. of regression 0.160957 Akaike info criterion -0.783459
Sum squared resid 9.274811 Schwarz criterion -0.656534
Log likelihood 156.9399 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.733043
F-statistic 812.8794 Durbin-Watson stat 0.119720
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B. Negara Berkembang Berpendapatan Rendah (1) PLS
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 22:32 Sample: 1970 2006
Included observations: 37 Number of cross-sections used: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 35.02013 4.690491 7.466198 0.0000
X1? -14.07338 1.341101 -10.49390 0.0000
X2? 1.103747 0.095632 11.54155 0.0000
R-squared 0.603321 Mean dependent var -9.087677 Adjusted R-squared 0.601160 S.D. dependent var 1.011445 S.E. of regression 0.638766 Sum squared resid 149.7442
Log likelihood -357.6610 F-statistic 279.0910
Durbin-Watson stat 0.089671 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(2) FEM
Dependent Variable: Y? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 06:08 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
C -1.765951 4.212888 -0.419178 0.6753
X1? -3.357943 1.248816 -2.688901 0.0075
X2? 0.327708 0.092224 3.553380 0.0004
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_AFG—C 0.327798 _BGD--C -0.396932 _CAF--C -0.511372 _ZAR--C -0.153759 _GHA--C 0.688689 _LAO--C -0.187443 _NPL--C -1.018274 _TZA--C 0.464872 _UGA--C -0.291245 _ZWE--C 1.077666 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.875305 Mean dependent var -9.087677
Adjusted R-squared 0.871474 S.D. dependent var 1.011445
S.E. of regression 0.362608 Akaike info criterion 0.840908
Sum squared resid 47.07156 Schwarz criterion 0.967832
Log likelihood -143.5680 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.891323
F-statistic 228.4560 Durbin-Watson stat 0.217888
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
(3) REM
Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 06/19/10 Time: 06:10
Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.421351 4.150051 -0.101529 0.9192
X1? -3.764184 1.227315 -3.067008 0.0023
X2? 0.358134 0.090515 3.956632 0.0001
Random Effects (Cross)
_AFG--C 0.329964 _BGD--C -0.396150 _CAF--C -0.497879 _ZAR--C -0.151704 _GHA--C 0.684360 _LAO--C -0.182230 _NPL--C -1.006061 _TZA--C 0.469351 _UGA--C -0.278254 _ZWE--C 1.028602 Effects Specification S.D. Rho
Cross-section random 0.543686 0.6921
Idiosyncratic random 0.362608 0.3079
Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.426249 Mean dependent var -0.990483
Adjusted R-squared 0.423122 S.D. dependent var 0.479217
S.E. of regression 0.363977 Sum squared resid 48.61995
F-statistic 136.3250 Durbin-Watson stat 0.212523
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.533337 Mean dependent var -9.087677
Sum squared resid 176.1631 Durbin-Watson stat 0.058655
(4) REDUNDANT FIXED EFFECTS TESTS
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Pool: POOL
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 86.763435 (9,358) 0.0000
Cross-section Chi-square 428.186067 9 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 06:09 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 35.02013 4.690491 7.466198 0.0000
X1? -14.07338 1.341101 -10.49390 0.0000
X2? 1.103747 0.095632 11.54155 0.0000
R-squared 0.603321 Mean dependent var -9.087677
Adjusted R-squared 0.601160 S.D. dependent var 1.011445
S.E. of regression 0.638766 Akaike info criterion 1.949519
Sum squared resid 149.7442 Schwarz criterion 1.981250
Log likelihood -357.6610 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.962123
F-statistic 279.0910 Durbin-Watson stat 0.089671
(5) HAUSMAN TEST
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 4.776165 2 0.0918
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
X1? -3.357943 -3.764184 0.053240 0.0783
X2? 0.327708 0.358134 0.000312 0.0852
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: Y?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 06/19/10 Time: 06:10 Sample: 1970 2006 Included observations: 37 Cross-sections included: 10
Total pool (balanced) observations: 370
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -1.765951 4.212888 -0.419178 0.6753
X1? -3.357943 1.248816 -2.688901 0.0075
X2? 0.327708 0.092224 3.553380 0.0004
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.875305 Mean dependent var -9.087677
Adjusted R-squared 0.871474 S.D. dependent var 1.011445
S.E. of regression 0.362608 Akaike info criterion 0.840908
Sum squared resid 47.07156 Schwarz criterion 0.967832
Log likelihood -143.5680 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.891323
F-statistic 228.4560 Durbin-Watson stat 0.217888
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 3. Singkatan yang Digunakan ADB = Asian Development Bank
EKC = Environmental Kuznet’s Curve
EIA = Energy Information Administration
FEM = Fixed Effects Model
GRK = Gas Rumah Kaca
IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
OECD = Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
PDB = Produk Domestik Bruto
PPP = Purchasing Power Parity
PWT = Penn World Table
REM = Random Effects Model
TOE = Tonne of Oil Equivalent
ABSTRACT
DIDA MIGFAR RIDHA. Analysis of Relationship between GHG emissions and with per capita income in develop and developing country. Under supervision of NUNUNG NURYARTONO and DEDI BUDIMAN HAKIM.
Relationship between national income (GDP) in a country and the resulting GHG emissions is a paradox, where the increase in national income (GDP) will have an impact on rising emissions. This research examines relationship between emission of green houses gasses and income per capita for develop and developing countries with various economic performances over the period of 1970-2006. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and panel data models, emission of green houses gasses are expressed as quadratic logarithmic function of income per capita, squared income per capita. As a result, the coefficient of income per capita is positive and greater than one and the coefficient of income per capita squared that is negative in developed countries are reviewed to explain that the emissions per capita have a relationship with per capita income in the form of inverted-U curve. The estimation results are consistent with the EKC hypothesis. The coefficient of income per capita is is negative and the coefficient of income per capita squared are positive in developing countries that were examined to explain that the emissions per capita have a relationship with per capita income in the form of a U-curve. The estimation results are not consistent with the EKC hypothesis.
I. PENDAHULUAN
1.1. Latar Belakang
Setiap negara menghasilkan output perekonomian yang dikuantifikasi sebagai pendapatan nasional atau Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). PDB yang dihasilkan pada suatu periode tertentu merupakan salah satu indikator pembangunan di suatu negara. PDB merupakan nilai barang dan jasa akhir berdasarkan harga pasar, yang diproduksi oleh sebuah perekonomian dalam suatu periode tertentu (kurun waktu) dengan menggunakan faktor-faktor produksi yang berada (berlokasi) dalam perekonomian tersebut (Case and Fair, 1996).
PDB disebut bertumbuh apabila jumlah permintaan total terhadap barang dan jasa dalam suatu perekonomian tertentu dan jumlah produksi total barang dan jasa dalam suatu perekonomian selama periode tertentu makin baik dibanding periode sebelumnya. Oleh karena itu, setiap negara memerlukan input sumber daya alam untuk menghasilkan barang dan jasa untuk proses produksi yang berbasis sumber daya alam maupun yang langsung dikonsumsi oleh rumah tangga. Dari proses industri, dihasilkan barang dan jasa yang kemudian dapat digunakan oleh rumah tangga untuk konsumsi.
Kegiatan produksi oleh industri dan konsumsi oleh rumah tangga menghasilkan residual atau limbah (waste). Residual hasil kegiatan produksi oleh industri dan konsumsi oleh rumah tangga mengalir ke dalam sistem lingkungan. Akumulasi aliran residual yang diproduksi melebihi kapasitas penyerapan lingkungan menimbulkan pencemaran lingkungan. Perman et al. (1996) melihat bahwa residual merupakan bagian intrinsic atau bagian yang tidak terpisahkan dari aktivitas ekonomi dan akan meningkat sejalan dengan peningkatan aktivitas tersebut.
Residual yang dihasilkan diantaranya berupa emisi gas seperti carbon dioksida (CO2), metana (CH4), nitrous oksida (NO2) yang terakumulasi dan
menjadi stock pollutan, dikenal dengan istilah emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) atau
Greenhouse Gas (GHG). Emisi GRK berperanan besar dalam meningkatnya peristiwa efek rumah kaca yang dalam skala besar akan mengakibatkan terjadinya
pemanasan global (global warming), lebih jauh lagi menyebabkan terjadinya perubahan iklim global (climate change).
Hasil kajian International Panel on Climate Change atau IPCC (2007) menunjukkan bahwa 11 dari 12 tahun terpanas sejak tahun 1850 terjadi dalam waktu 12 tahun terakhir. Kenaikan temperatur total dari tahun 1850-1899 sampai dengan tahun 2001-2005 adalah 0,76oC. Agar kenaikan temperatur dapat dibatasi dibawah 2oC, harus disepakati target global penurunan emisi sebesar 50% pada tahun 2050 dan komitmen negara maju untuk mereduksi emisi sekurang- kurangnya 80% pada tahun 2050 dengan base year tahun 1990.
Hubungan antara emisi GRK yang dihasilkan dan pendapatan nasional (PDB) di suatu negara merupakan suatu paradoks, dimana peningkatan pendapatan nasional (PDB) berdampak pada meningkatnya emisi GRK. Hubungan antara emisi GRK yang dihasilkan dan pendapatan nasional (PDB) di suatu negara menunjukkan seberapa besar kemampuan negara dalam mengelola penggunaan sumber daya secara efektif untuk setiap satu satuan PDB yang dihasilkan. Selain itu, hubungan antara emisi GRK yang dihasilkan dan pendapatan nasional (PDB) sekaligus juga dapat dijadikan tolak ukur kualitas lingkungan pada suatu negara.
Fenomena mengenai hubungan antara berbagai indikator degradasi lingkungan dengan tahapan pembangunan yang tercermin melalui pendapatan per kapita dapat dijelaskan melalui Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Hipotesis EKC menyatakan bahwa negara-negara berkembang yang umumnya merupakan negara-negara tipikal agraris, masih bertumpu pada sektor pertanian. Namun, seiring dengan berjalannya pembangunan, degradasi lingkungan (seperti tingkat emisi, polusi, intensitas energi, dan sebagainya) akan meningkat dengan cepat. Kondisi ini umumnya terjadi di negara-negara berkembang yang sedang memacu industri.
Pada tingkat pembangunan yang lebih tinggi, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terjadi akan membalikan keadaan. Pada fase ini pertumbuhan yang terjadi akan menurunkan tingkat degradasi lingkungan. Situasi ini umumnya terjadi di negara- negara maju yang mana mulai terjadi pergeseran fase pembangunan dari industri ke jasa. Pada fase ini juga terjadi alih teknologi produksi ke yang lebih efisien
dan ramah lingkungan, sehingga peningkatan aktivitas ekonomi yang terjadi akan menurunkan tingkat degradasi lingkungan.
Negara maju dan negara berkembang terus mengalami perkembangan cukup pesat dalam beberapa kurun waktu terakhir. Banyak industri baru tumbuh