ŝ
3(1*$58+3(1'$3$7$1 '$1.216806,580$+
7$1**$7(5+$'$3.(6(-$+7(5$$1.(/8$5*$
3(7$1,3(1**$5$3.23,',.(&$0$7$1&$1',5272
.$%83$7(17(0$1**81*
6.5,36,
8QWXN0HPSHUROHK*HODU6DUMDQD3HQGLGLNDQ 3DGD8QLYHUVLWDV1HJHUL6HPDUDQJ
2OHK
+DQLIDK$PDQDWXUURKLP 1,0
-8586$13(1',',.$1(.2120,
)$.8/7$6(.2120,
81,9(56,7$61(*(5,6(0$5$1*
ŝŝ
3(56(78-8$13(0%,0%,1*
6NULSVLLQLWHODKGLVHWXMXLROHK3HPELPELQJXQWXNGLDMXNDQNHVLGDQJSDQLWLD XMLDQVNULSVLSDGD
+DUL 6HQLQ
ŝŝŝ
3(1*(6$+$1.(/8/86$1
6NULSVLLQLWHODKGLSHUWDKDQNDQGLGHSDQ6LGDQJ3DQLWLD8MLDQ6NULSVL )DNXOWDV(NRQRPL8QLYHUVLWDV1HJHUL6HPDUDQJ SDGD
+DUL 5DEX
7DQJJDO 2NWREHU
3HQJXML, 3HQJXML,, 3HQJXML,,,
ŝǀ
3(51<$7$$1
ǀ
02772'$13(56(0%$+$1 0RWWR
³'DQ MDQJDQODK EHUSXWXV DVD GDUL UDKPDW$OODK6HVXQJJXKQ\DWLGDN EHUSXWXV DVD GDUL UDKPDW $OODK NHFXDOL RUDQJRUDQJ \DQJ NDILU´
46<XVXI
³5LGKR$OODKDGDSDGDULGKRNHGXD
RUDQJWXD´+50XVOLP
3HUVHPEDKDQ
7DQSD PHQJXUDQJL UDVD V\XNXU GDQ FLQWDNX NHSDGD $OODK 6:7 GDQ 1DEL 0XKDPPDG 6$:.XSHUVHPEDKNDQVNULSVLLQLXQWXN .HGXD RUDQJ WXDNX WHUFLQWD %DSDN $PLU
GDQ ,EX 7XSUL\DWL GHQJDQ VHJDOD NDVLK VD\DQJQ\D GDODP PHQGLGLN PHQMDGL
PRWLYDWRU GDQ VHQDQWLDVD PHQGR¶DNDQ
GDODPVHWLDSODQJNDKNX
ǀŝ 35$.$7$
3XMLGDQV\XNXUNHKDGLUDW$OODK6:7DWDVOLPSDKDQNDUXQLDGDQKLGD\DK 1\D VHKLQJJD SHQXOLV GDSDW PHQ\HOHVDLNDQ SHQXOLVDQ VNULSVL \DQJ EHUMXGXO
³3HQJDUXK SHQGDSDWDQ GDQ NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ
NHOXDUJD SHWDQL SHQJJDUDS NRSL GL .HFDPDWDQ &DQGLURWR .DEXSDWHQ
7HPDQJJXQJ´
3HQXOLV PHQ\DGDUL EDKZD NHEHUKDVLODQ LQL EXNDQODK NHEHUKDVLODQ LQGLYLGX VHPDWDQDPXQEHUNDWEDQWXDQGDQELPELQJDQGDULVHPXDSLKDN2OHKNDUHQDLWX SDGDNHVHPSDWLQLSHQXOLVEHUPDNVXGPHQJKDWXUNDQWHULPDNDVLKNHSDGD
3URI 'U )DWKXU 5RNKPDQ 0 +XP5HNWRU 8QLYHUVLWDV 1HJHUL 6HPDUDQJ \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ NHVHPSDWDQ NHSDGD SHQ\XVXQ XQWXN PHPSHUROHK SHQGLGLNDQGL811(6
'U :DK\RQR00'HNDQ)DNXOWDV(NRQRPL8QLYHUVLWDV1HJHUL6HPDUDQJ \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ NHVHPSDWDQ NHSDGD SHQ\XVXQ VHKLQJJD GDSDW PHQ\HOHVDLNDQVNULSVLGDQVWXGLGHQJDQEDLN
'U $GH 5XVWLDQD 06L .HWXD -XUXVDQ 3HQGLGLNDQ (NRQRPL )DNXOWDV (NRQRPL 8QLYHUVLWDV 1HJHUL 6HPDUDQJ \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ L]LQ NHSDGD SHQ\XVXQXQWXNPHODNXNDQSHQHOLWLDQ
'UV 6\DPVX +DGL 06L 'RVHQ 3HQJXML , \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ NULWLN VDUDQGDQDUDKDQ
ǀŝŝ
3URI 'U -RNR :LGRGR 03G VHEDJDL 'RVHQ 3HPELPELQJ GDQ 'RVHQ 3HQJXML ,,, \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ ELPELQJDQ DUDKDQ GDQ PRWLYDVL \DQJ VDQJDWEHUPDQIDDWVHODPDSHQ\XVXQDQVNULSVL
'RVHQGRVHQ )DNXOWDV (NRQRPL 8QLYHUVLWDV 1HJHUL 6HPDUDQJ \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ LOPX GDQ SHQJHWDKXDQ VHODPD SHUNXOLDKDQ KLQJJD GDSDW PHQJDQWDUNDQMDODQQ\DSHQ\XVXQDQVNULSVL
3DUDSHWDQLSHQJJDUDSNRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ \DQJVHQDQWLDVDPHPEDQWXEHUMDODQQ\DSHQHOLWLDQ
$GLNDGLNNX WHUVD\DQJ ,PDP $PDQDWXUURKPDQ GDQ $EGXO +DILG] 5RKPDWXUURV\LG \DQJ PHQJDMDUNDQNX DUWL NHVDEDUDQ XQWXN GDSDW EHUWLQGDN OHELKELMDNGDQGHZDVD
.HOXDUJD EHVDUNX 'XVXQ *HGDQJDQ .HFDPDWDQ &DQGLURWR \DQJ VXGDK PHQMDGL RUDQJ WXD GDQ VDKDEDW GDODP PHQELPELQJNX PHQMDGL RUDQJ \DQJ OHELKPDQGLULGDODPPHQMDODQNDQVHWLDSWDQJJXQJMDZDE\DQJGLEHULNDQ 6DKDEDW GDQ WHPDQWHPDQ 3HQGLGLNDQ (NRQRPL .RSHUDVL 7DKXQ
VHEDJDL WHPDQ VHSHUMXDQJDQ \DQJ WHODK EDQ\DN PHPEHULNDQ VHPDQJDW GDQ SHQJDODPDQGDODP PDVDNXOLDKVDPSDLWHUVHOHVDLNDQQ\DVNULSVLLQL
.HOXDUJD VDKDEDW GDQ WHPDQWHPDQ 3RQGRN 3HVDQWUHQ +XVQXO .KRWLPDK \DQJ WHODK PHPEHULNDQ SHQGLGLNDQ SHPEHODMDUDQ GDQ SHQJDODPDQ XQWXN PHQMDGLRUDQJ\DQJOHELKEDLN
6HPXD SLKDN \DQJ WLGDN GDSDW SHQXOLV VHEXWNDQ VDWX SHUVDWX \DQJ WHODK PHPEDQWXGDODPSHQ\XVXQDQVNULSVLLQL
ǀŝŝŝ 6$5,
$PDQDWXUURKLP +DQLIDK3HQJDUXK 3HQGDSDWDQ GDQ .RQVXPVL 5XPDK 7DQJJDWHUKDGDS.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD3HWDQL3HQJJDUDS.RSLGL.HFDPDWDQ
&DQGLURWR .DEXSDWHQ 7HPDQJJXQJ6NULSVL-XUXVDQ 3HQGLGLNDQ (NRQRPL
)DNXOWDV (NRQRPL 8QLYHUVLWDV 1HJHUL 6HPDUDQJ 3URI 'U -RNR :LGRGR 63G 03G
.DWD .XQFL 3HQGDSDWDQ .RQVXPVL 5XPDK 7DQJJD GDQ .HVHMDKWHUDDQ .HOXDUJD
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
3RSXODVLGDODPSHQHOLWLDQLQLDGDODKNHOXDUJDSHWDQLSHQJJDUDSNRSL \DQJ WLGDN PHPLOLNL ODKDQ SHUNHEXQDQ \DQJ EHUMXPODK NHOXDUJD 8NXUDQ VDPSHO PHQJJXQDNDQ UXPXV VORYLQ VHKLQJJD GLSHUROHK UHVSRQGHQ 3HQJDPELODQ VDPSHO PHQJJXQDNDQ WHNQLN DUHD SURSRWLRQDO UDQGRP VDPSOLQJ 7HNQLN SHQJXPSXODQGDWD\DQJGLJXQDNDQDGDODKNXHVLRQHUGDQGRNXPHQWDVL'DWD\DQJ GLNXPSXONDQGLDQDOLVLVPHQJJXQDNDQWHNQLNDQDOLVLVGHVNULSWLIXMLDVXPVLNODVLN GDQDQDOLVLVUHJUHVLEHUJDQGD
%HUGDVDUNDQDQDOLVLVUHJUHVLOLQLHUEHUJDQGDGLSHUROHKSHUVDPDDQUHJUHVL< ; ;+DVLOXMLKLSRWHVLVGLSHUROHKKDVLOVHFDUDSDUVLDO
SHQGDSDWDQ EHUSHQJDUXK VLJQLILNDQ GDQ SRVLWLI WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD VHEHVDU GDQ NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD EHUSHQJDUXK VLJQLILNDQ GDQ SRVLWLI WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD VHEHVDU VHGDQJNDQ VHFDUD VLPXOWDQ SHGDSDWDQ GDQ NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD VHFDUD EHUVDPDVDPD PHPSHQJDUXKL NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD VHEHVDU VLVDQ\D VHEHVDU GLSHQJDUXKL ROHK YDULDEHOODLQ\DQJWLGDNGLWHOLWL
ŝdž $%675$&7
$PDQDWXUURKLP +DQLIDK 7KH ,QIOXHQFH RI LQFRPH DQG +RXVHKROG &RQVXPSWLRQ 7KH 5HVXOW RI )DPLO\ :HOIDUH &XOWLYDWRUV &RIIH LQ 'LVWULFW
&DQGLURWR 7HPDQJJXQJ UHJHQF\$ )LQDO 3URMHFW(FRQRPLFV (GXFDWLRQ
'HSDUWPHQW (FRQRPLFV )DFXOW\ 6HPDUDQJ 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\3URI 'U -RNR :LGRGR63G03G
.H\ZRUGV,QFRPH&RQVXPSWLRQ 2I+RXVHKROG DQG)DPLO\:HOIDUH
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
7KHSRSXODWLRQLQWKLVVWXG\DUHDIDPLO\RIVKDUHFURSSHUVZKRGRQWKDYHD FRIIHH SODQWDWLRQ ODQG WRWDOOLQJ IDPLOLHV 7KH VL]H RI WKH VDPSOH VORYLQ IRUPXOD XVHV VR REWDLQHG UHVSRQGHQWV 6DPSOLQJ XVLQJ UDQGRP VDPSOLQJ WHFKQLTXHVSURSRWLRQDODUHD'DWDFROOHFWLRQWHFKQLTXHVXVHGDUHTXHVWLRQQDLUHDQG GRFXPHQWDWLRQ 7KH FROOHFWHG GDWD ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ GHVFULSWLYH DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHVFODVVLFDVVXPSWLRQWHVWDQGPXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLV
%DVHGRQPXOWLSOHOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVUHJUHVVLRQHTXDWLRQREWDLQHG < ;;+\SRWKHVLVWHVWUHVXOWVREWDLQHGUHVXOWVSDUWLDOO\
dž '$)7$5,6,
+DODPDQ
+$/$0$1-8'8/ L
3(56(78-8$13(0%,0%,1* LL
3(1*(6$+$1.(/8/86$1 LLL
3(51<$7$$1 LY
02772'$13(56(0%$+$1 Y
35$.$7$ YL
5XPXVDQ0DVDODK
7XMXDQ3HQHOLWLDQ
0DQIDDW3HQHOLWLDQ
%$%,, /$1'$6$17(25,
.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD
.RQVHS'DVDU.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD )DNWRUIDNWRU\DQJ0HPSHQJDUXKL.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD 7DKDSDQWDKDSDQ.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD
3HQGDSDWDQ
.RQVHS'DVDU3HQGDSDWDQ
)DNWRUIDNWRU\DQJ0HPSHQJDUXKL3HQGDSDWDQ
.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD
.RQVHS'DVDU.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD
džŝ
7HRUL3HULODNX.RQVXPHQ
3HULODNX.RQVXPHQ'DODP3HPDVDUDQ
3HQHOLWLDQ7HUGDKXOX
.HUDQJND%HUILNLU3HQHOLWL
+LSRWHVLV3HQHOLWLDQ
%$%,,, 0(72'(3(1(/,7,$1
-HQLVGDQ'HVDLQ3HQHOLWLDQ
3RSXODVL GDQ6DPSHO
9DULDEHO3HQHOLWLDQ
3HQGDSDWDQ
.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD
.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD
7HNQLN3HQJXPSXODQ'DWD
.XHVLRQHU
'RNXPHQWDVL
9DOLGLWDVGDQ5HOLDELOLWDV,QVWUXPHQ3HQHOLWLDQ
9DOLGLWDV
5HOLDELOLWDV
7HNQLN$QDOLVLV'DWD
$QDOLVLV6WDWLVWLN'HVNULSWLI
8ML$VXPVL.ODVLN
8ML1RUPDOLWDV
8ML0XOWLNROLQLHULWDV
8ML+HWHURVNHGDVWLVLWDV
$QDOLVLV5HJUHVL/LQLHU%HUJDQGD
8ML+LSRWHVLV3HQHOLWLDQ
8ML6LJQLILNDQVL3DUVLDO8MLW 8ML6LJQLILNDQVL6LPXOWDQ8ML)
.RHILVLHQ'HWHUPLQDVL
%$%,9 +$6,/3(1(/,7,$1'$13(0%$+$6$1
džŝŝ
*DPEDUDQ8PXP
+DVLO$QDOLVLV 'HVNULSWLI 9DULDEHO3HQHOLWLDQ
+DVLO8ML$VXPVL.ODVLN
+DVLO$QDOLVLV5HJUHVL/LQLHU%HUJDQGD
+DVLO3HQJXMLDQ+LSRWHVLV
+DVLO$QDOLVLV.RHILVLHQ'HWHUPLQDVL
3HPEDKDVDQ
3HQJDUXK3HQGDSDWDQ7HUKDGDS.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD 3HQJDUXK.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD7HUKDGDS.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD 3HQJDUXK3HQGDSDWDQGDQ.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD7HUKDGDS
.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD
%$%9 3(18783
6LPSXODQ 6DUDQ
džŝŝŝ
'$)7$57$%(/
7DEHO +DODPDQ
8SDK%XUXK
'DIWDU$ORNDVL3HQJHOXDUDQ.RQVXPVL0DV\DUDNDW
3RSXODVL3HQHOLWLDQ
3URSRUVL3HQJDPELODQ6DPSHO
5LQJNDVDQ 8ML9DOLGLWDV9DULDEHO3HQGDSDWDQ 5LQJNDVDQ 8ML9DOLGDWDV9DULDEHO.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD 5LQJNDVDQ 8ML9DOLGDWDV9DULDEHO.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD 5LQJNDVDQ 8ML5HOLDELOLWDV,QVWUXPHQ3HQHOLWLDQ .DWHJRUL9DULDEHO3HQGDSDWDQ .DWHJRUL9DULDEHO.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD .DWHJRUL9DULDEHO.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HUNULSWLI9DULDEHO.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.HEXWXKDQ3RNRN +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.HEXWXKDQ6RVLDO +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.HEXWXKDQ3HQJHPEDQJDQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HUNULSWLI9DULDEHO3HQGDSDWDQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI9DULDEHO3HQHULPDDQ3HQJKDVLODQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.HWHSDWDQ3HPED\DUDQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.HVHVXDLDQ3HNHUMDDQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HUNULSWLI9DULDEHO.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.RQVXPVLPDNDQDQ +DVLO$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI,QGLNDWRU.RQVXPVLEXNDQPDNDQDQ
+DVLO8ML1RUPDOLWDV
+DVLO8ML0XOWLNRORQLHULWDV
+DVLO8ML*OHMVHU
+DVLO8ML$QDOLVLV 5HJUHVL/LQLHU%HUJDQGD +DVLO3HQJXMLDQ6HFDUD3DUVLDO8MLW +DVLO3HQJXMLDQ6HFDUD6LPXOWDQ8ML) 8ML.RHILVLHQ'HWHUPLQDVL6HFDUD6LPXOWDQ 5
džŝǀ
'$)7$5*$0%$5
*DPEDU +DODPDQ
3DQGDQJDQ8PXP3HULODNX.RQVXPHQ6DPSDL6WUDWHJL3HPDVDUDQ .HUDQJND%HUILNLU 3HQHOLWL 'LDJUDP%DWDQJ$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI9DULDEHO.HVHMDKWHUDDQ.HOXDUJD 'LDJUDP%DWDQJ$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI9DULDEHO3HQGDSDWDQ 'LDJUDP%DWDQJ$QDOLVLV'HVNULSWLI9DULDEHO.RQVXPVL5XPDK7DQJJD
8ML1RUPDOLWDV
džǀ
'$)7$5/$03,5$1
/DPSLUDQ +DODPDQ
ϭ %$%, 3(1'$+8/8$1
/DWDU%HODNDQJ0DVDODK
.HVHMDKWHUDDQ .HOXDUJD DGDODK VXDWX NRQGLVL GLQDPLV NHOXDUJD GHQJDQ WHUSHQXKLQ\D VHPXD NHEXWXKDQ ILVLN PDWHULO PHQWDO VSLULWXDO GDQ VRVLDO \DQJ PHPXQJNLQNDQ NHOXDUJD GDSDW KLGXS ZDMDU VHVXDL GHQJDQ OLQJNXQJDQQ\D VHUWD PHPXQJNLQNQ DQDNDQDN WXPEXK NHPEDQJ GDQ PHPSHUROHK SHUOLQGXQJDQ \DQJ GLSHUOXNDQ XQWXN PHPEHQWXN VLNDS PHQWDO GDQ NHSULEDGLDQ \DQJ PDQWDS GDQ PDWDQJ VHEDJDL VXPEHU GD\D PDQXVLD \DQJ EHUNXDOLWDV %$3(50$6.%
6HGDQJNDQ GDUL SDQGDQJDQ \DQJ EHUEHGD GLQ\DWDNDQ EDKZD NHOXDUJD VHMDKWHUDDGDODKNHOXDUJD \DQJGLEHQWXNEHUGDVDUNDQDWDVSHUNDZLQDQ \DQJVDK PDPSX PHPHQXKL NHEXWXKDQ KLGXS VSLULWXDO GDQ PDWHULLO \DQJ OD\DN EHUWDTZD NHSDGD 7XKDQ <DQJ 0DKD (VD PHPLOLNL KXEXQJDQ \DQJ VHUDVL VHODUDV GDQ VHLPEDQJ DQWDU DQJJRWD GDQ DQWDU NHOXDUJD GHQJDQ PDV\DUDNDW GDQ OLQJNXQJDQ 8QGDQJ8QGDQJ5HSXEOLN,QGRQHVLD1RWDKXQ
7DUDI.HVHMDKWHUDDQWLGDNKDQ\DEHUXSDXNXUDQ\DQJWHUOLKDWILVLNGDQ NHVHKDWDQ WDSLMXJD\DQJWLGDNGDSDWGLOLKDWVSLULWXDO)HUJXVRQHWDOPHQ\DWDNDQEDKZD NHVHMDKWHUDDQNHOXDUJDGDSDWGLEHGDNDQNHGDODPGXDPDFDP\DLWXNHVHMDKWHUDDQ HNRQRPL IDPLO\ HFRQRPLF ZHOOEHLQJ GDQ NHVHMDKWHUDDQ PDWHULDO IDPLO\
PDWHULDOZHOOEHLQJ.HVHMDKWHUDDQHNRQRPLNHOXDUJDGLXNXUGDODPSHPHQXKDQ
Ϯ
NHVHMDKWHUDDQPDWHULLOGLXNXUGDULEHUEDJDLEHQWXNEDUDQJGDQMDVD\DQJGLDNVHV ROHKNHOXDUJD3XVSLWDZDWL
.RQVHS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ VDQJDW EHUNDLWDQ GHQJDQ NRQVHS NHEXWXKDQ GHQJDQ WHUSHQXKLQ\D NHEXWXKDQ PDND VHVHRUDQJ VXGDK GDSDW GLQLODL VHMDKWHUD .DUHQD WLQJNDWNHEXWXKDQ VHFDUDWLGDNODQJVXQJVHMDODQ GHQJDQLQGLNDWRUNHVHMDKWHUDDQ 7HRUL0DVORZPHQJJDPEDUNDQUXPXVDQWHQWDQJNHEXWXKDQ\DQJKLHUDUNLVGDODP EHQWXN VHJLWLJD GLPDQD NHEXWXKDQ \DQJ DGD GL DWDV DNDQ WHUSHQXKL VHWHODK NHEXWXKDQ GL EDZDKQ\D WHUSHQXKL 7LQJNDWDQ SDOLQJ EDZDK GDODP KLHUDUNLV NHEXWXKDQ WHUVHEXW DGDODK NHEXWXKDQ ILVLN \DQJ PHQ\DQJNXW NHEXWXKDQ SRNRN VHSHUWL VDQGDQJ SDQJDQ GDQ SDSDQ .HPXGLDQ EHUWXUXWWXUXW DGDODK NHEXWXKDQ DNDQ UDVD DPDQ NHEXWXKDQ VRVLDO GDQ NHEXWXKDQ SHQJKDUJDDQ DWDV GLUL 1LWLVXVDVWUR .HOXDUJD \DQJ VHMDKWHUD PHUXSDNDQ NHOXDUJD \DQJ GDSDWPHPHQXKLVHJDODNHEXWXKDQQ\DGDQGLVHEXWVHEDJDLNHOXDUJDEHUNXDOLWDV GHQJDQ WHUSHQXKLQ\D NHEXWXKDQ GDODP DVSHN SHQGLGLNDQ NHVHKDWDQ HNRQRPL VRVLDOEXGD\DNHPDQGLULDQNHOXDUJDGDQPHQWDOVSLULWXDOVHUWDQLODLQLODLDJDPD
'DODP VHEXDK NHOXDUJD XQWXN PHPHQXKL NHEXWXKDQ HUDW GHQJDQ EHVDUDQ SHQGDSDWDQ \DQJ GLKDVLONDQ GDUL SHNHUMDDQ GDQ GLNHOXDUNDQ VHEDJDL EHQWXN NRQVXPVLXQWXNPHQFDSDLNHVHMDKWHUDDQ6HEDJDLPDQDSHQHOLWLDQROHK:DJOHHW DOPHQ\DWDNDQ
³,QFRPHDQGFRQVXPSWLRQDUHVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGDQGH[WUHPHO\XVHIXO
PHDVXUHV RI HFRQRPLF ZHOIDUH DV WKH\ FDSWXUH WKH PHDQV E\ ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDOV DQG KRXVHKROGV FDQ DFKLHYH KXPDQ ZHOOEHLQJ ,QFRPH DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ WHQG WR KLJKO\ FRUUHODWH ZLWK HDFK RWKHU EHFDXVH FRQVXPSWLRQ GHULYHV IURP LQFRPH DQG LQFRPH LV HVVHQWLDO IRU
ϯ
'DSDW GLDUWLNDQ EDKZD SHQGDSDWDQ GDQ NRQVXPVL PHUXSDNDQ YDULDEHO VHGHUKDQD \DQJ PHQHQWXNDQ NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NDUHQD EDLN VHFDUD LQGLYLGX PDXSXQ UXPDKWDQJJDGDSDWGLJXQDNDQXQWXNPHQFDSDLNHVHMDKWHUDDQPDQXVLD
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
ϰ
3HNHUMDDQ VHEDJDL EXUXK SHQJJDUDS NRSL GLMDGLNDQ VHEDJDL VDWXVDWXQ\D WXMXDQPHQGDSDWNDQSHQJKDVLODQXQWXNPHPHQXKLNHEXWXKDQ\DQJEHUXEDKXEDK GDQ VHPDNLQ PHQLQJNDW VHVXDL GHQJDQ SHUNHPEDQJDQ ]DPDQ 0HUHND WLGDN PHPLOLNL SLOLKDQ VHODLQ WHWDS EHUWDKDQ ZDODXSXQ XSDK \DQJ GLEHULNDQ PDVLK UHQGDK
7DEHO 8SDK%XUXK
1R %XUXK 3HQJJDUDSDQ /DNLODNL8SDK+DULDQ3HUHPSXDQ
3HWDQL3DOD:LMD
3HWDQL7HPEDNDX %XODQ
3HWDQL.RSL
6XPEHU.HORPSRN3HUWDQLDQ'HVD
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
ϱ
GDVDUQ\D VHVHRUDQJ \DQJ EHNHUMD PHQJKDUDSNDQ LPEDODQ \DQJ VHVXDL XQWXN PHPHQXKL NHEXWXKDQQ\D .DUHQD GHQJDQ WHUSHQXKLQ\D XSDK \DQJ VHVXDL PDND DNDQPHUDVDFXNXSXQWXNPHPHQXKLNHEXWXKDQKLGXSEDLNEDJLGLULQ\DPDXSXQ NHOXDUJDQ\DVHKLQJJDDNDQPHUDVDSXDVGDQPHQFDSDLSDGDWLQJNDWVHMDKWHUD
.RQVXPVLNHOXDUJDPHUXSDNDQVDODKVDWXNHJLDWDQHNRQRPLNHOXDUJDXQWXN PHPHQXKLEHUEDJDLNHEXWXKDQEDUDQJGDQMDVD'DULNRPRGLWL\DQJGLNRQVXPVL NHOXDUJD DNDQ PHPSXQ\DL NHSXDVDQ WHUVHQGLUL 2OHK VHEDE LWX NRQVXPVL GLMDGLNDQ VDODK VDWX LQGLNDWRU NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD 6HEDJDLPDQD SHQHOLWLDQ WHUGDKXOX \DQJ GLODNXNDQ ROHK 1GDNXODUDN GNN PHQ\DWDNDQ EDKZD SHQJHOXDUDQ UXPDK WDQJJD XQWXN PDNDQDQ SHQGLGLNDQ GDQ NHVHKDWDQ VHFDUD VLPXOWDQ EHUSHQJDUXK VLJQLILNDQ WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ PDV\DUDNDW .DEXSDWHQ.RWDGL3URYLQVL%DOL
'DODPNHJLDWDQNRQVXPVLVHWLDSNHOXDUJDPHPLOLNLMHQLVSHQJHOXDUDQ\DQJ EHUEHGD 3HUEHGDDQSRODNRQVXPVLSDGDVHWLDSNHOXDUJDGLMDGLNDQVHEDJDLEHEDQ DWDXWDQJJXQJDQGDODPPHPHQXKLNHEXWXKDQVHPXDDQJJRWDNHOXDUJDVHKLQJJD GLMDGLNDQ VHEDJDL XNXUDQ WHUFDSDLQ\D NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD VHFDUD PHUDWD GDQ XWXK6HEDJDLPDQD\DQJGLNDWDNDQROHK3DQJDULERZR
³+RXVHKROGFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQVDUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHDPRQJWKH
PRVWUHOLDEOHLQGLFDWRUVRIWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGSXEOLFZHOIDUH RIDFRXQWU\´
ϲ
SHPEDQJXQDQ HNRQRPL GDQ NHVHMDKWHUDDQ PDV\DUDNDW 1HJDUD NDUHQD VHWLDS NHOXDUJD WLGDN DGD \DQJ PHPLOLNL FDUD GDQ MXPODK SHQJHOXDUDQ \DQJ VDPD %HUGDVDUNDQ SHQJDUXK NRQVXPVL WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD GDSDW GLOLKDW GDULSRODNRQVXPVLNHOXDUJD
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
.HVHMDKWHUDDQ SDGD KDNHNDWQ\D WHUSHQXKLQ\D VHJDOD NHEXWXKDQ GHQJDQ PHODNXNDQ NHJLDWDQ NRQVXPVL \DQJ GLSHQXKL GHQJDQ SHQGDSDWDQ \DQJ GLPLOLNL KLQJJDPHQFDSDLNHSXDVDQ
%HUGDVDUNDQ XUDLDQ ODWDU EHODNDQJ GLDWDV PDND SHQHOLWL WHUWDULN XQWXN PHPEDKDV GDQ PHQHOLWL PDVDODK LQL GHQJDQ MXGXO ³3HQJDUXK 3HQGDSDWDQ GDQ
.RQVXPVL 5XPDK 7DQJJD 7HUKDGDS .HVHMDKWHUDDQ .HOXDUJD 3HWDQL 3HQJJDUDS
.RSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ´
5XPXVDQ0DVDODK
ϳ
6HEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK SHQGDSDWDQ WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD SHWDQL SHQJJDUDS NRSL GL .HFDPDWDQ &DQGLURWR .DEXSDWHQ 7HPDQJJXQJ"
6HEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQNHOXDUJDSHWDQLSHQJJDUDSNRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR .DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ"
6HEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK SHQGDSDWDQ GDQ NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD VHFDUDEHUVDPDVDPDWHUKDGDSNHVHMDKWHUDDQNHOXDUJDSHWDQLSHQJJDUDS NRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ"
7XMXDQ3HQHOLWLDQ
7XMXDQGDULSHQHOLWLDQLQLDGDODK
8QWXN PHQGHVNULSVLNDQ GDQ PHQJDQDOLVLV VHEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK SHQGDSDWDQ WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD SHWDQL SHQJJDUDS NRSL GL .HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ
8QWXN PHQGHVNULSVLNDQ GDQ PHQJDQDOLVLV VHEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD SHWDQL SHQJJDUDSNRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ
8QWXN PHQGHVNULSVLNDQ GDQ PHQJDQDOLVLV VHEHUDSD EHVDU SHQJDUXK SHQGDSDWDQ GDQNRQVXPVLUXPDKWDQJJDVHFDUDEHUVDPDVDPDWHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQNHOXDUJDSHWDQLSHQJJDUDSNRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR .DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ
0DQIDDW3HQHOLWLDQ
ϴ
0DQIDDW7HRULWLV
D +DVLO SHQHOLWLDQ LQL GDSDW GLJXQDNDQ VHEDJDL EDKDQ NDMLDQ GDODP PHQDPEDKSHQJHWDKXDQVHFDUDWHRULWLVWHQWDQJSHQJDUXKSHQGDSDWDQ GDQ NRQVXPVL UXPDK WDQJJD WHUKDGDS NHVHMDKWHUDDQ NHOXDUJD SHQJJDUDSNRSLGL.HFDPDWDQ&DQGLURWR.DEXSDWHQ7HPDQJJXQJ E +DVLO SHQHOLWLDQ LQL GDSDW GLSHUJXQDNDQ XQWXN UHIHUHQVL SHQHOLWLDQ
VHODQMXWQ\D\DQJUHOHYDQ
0DQIDDW3UDNWLV
D +DVLO SHQHOLWLDQ LQL GDSDW GLJXQDNDQ EDJL LQVWLWXVL VHEDJDL SHUWLPEDQJDQSHQJDPELODQNHELMDNDQGDODPPHQHQWXNDQWRODNXNXU SHQJXSDKDQ GDQ SHQJJRORQJDQ PDV\DUDNDW GDODP XNXUDQ NHVHMDKWHUDDQNHOXDUJD
