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Climate Change and Land

Use Change in Amazonia

A report for the Amazonia Security Agenda Project

 

March 2013 amazoniasecurity.org

Jean P. Ometto, Gilvan Sampaio, Jose Marengo, Talita Assis, Graciela Tejada, Ana Paula Aguiar

Earth System Science Center (CCST)

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Climate Change and Land Use Change in Amazonia was produced for this project by Jean P. Ometto, Gilvan Sampaio, Jose Marengo, Talita Assis, Graciela Tejada, and Ana Paula Aguiar of Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil.

Suggested citation:

OMETTO, J. P., SAMPAIO, G., MARENGO, J., ASSIS, T., TEJADA, G. & AGUIAR, A.P. (2013) Climate Change and Land Use Change in Amazonia. Report for Global Canopy Programme and International Center for Tropical Agriculture as part of the Amazonia Security Agenda project.

This report was conducted by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Global Canopy Programme (GCP) for the

Amazonia Security Agenda. This report was supported with funds from the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and Fundación Futuro Latinoamericano (FFLA).

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Table of contents

1. Introduction ... 6

2. Land Use Change ... 10

2.1. Context ... 10

2.2. Land use and cover change (LUCC) ... 12

2.2.1. Global Scenarios ... 15

2.2.2. Amazon Basin ... 18

2.2.3. Brazilian Amazon ... 23

2.2.4. National Level ... 28

3. Climate change scenarios ... 31

3.1 Climate change models ... 31

3.2 Climate extreme events ... 39

3.3 Climate change and land use change ... 40

4. Case studies - Climate extreme events in Amazonia: imminent threat to human security ... 42

5. Conclusions and Policy Options ... 47

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Figure list

Figure 1: Study area ... 9 Figure 2. MEA (2005) . ... 16 Figure 3. Behavior of the driving forces of Geo-Amazonia (2005) scenarios 20 Figure 4. Loss of forest cover overlapped with drought probability for 2050. ... 21 Figure 5. Model results for the extreme-case scenarios in the year 2050 .... 22 Figure 6. The future of the Brazilian Amazon scenarios by the year 2020 .. 24 Figure 7. Deforestation and carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon biome: average of two socioeconomic scenarios with five protected areas scenarios. ... 25 Figure 8. Indirect land use changes caused by fulfilment of Brazil's biofuels production targets to 2020. ... 28 Figure 9: Climate change projections for 2015-2034 of near surface

temperature anomalies (C) for 15 CMIP3 Global Climate Models. ... 33 Figure 10: Climate change projections for 2015-2034 of near surface

temperature anomalies (C) for 9 CMIP5 Global Earth System Models . ... 34 Figure 11 - Climate change projections for 2015-2034 of precipitation

anomalies (mm/day) for 15 CMIP3 Global Climate Models ... 35 Figure 12 - Climate change projections for 2015-2034 of precipitation

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Table list

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1. Introduction

Global warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions by human activities and natural climate change presents a challenge for the world’s natural ecosystems. The acceleration of human-driven climate change poses serious questions and challenges for conservation strategies to cope with the expected changes in the distribution, physiology and ecology of most species. This is especially true for the tropical forests with its tremendous species diversity. Several studies have discussed the future of the Amazon (Osborn et al., 2011; Soares-Filho et al., 2010; Lapola et al. 2010; Gómez and

Nagatani et al., 2009; Malhi et al., 2008; Aguiar, 2006; Soares-Filho et al., 2006; Laurance et al., 2001) in the wake of global concerns about

biodiversity loss, deforestation-driven CO2 emissions through the

intensification of droughts and vulnerability to forest fires and intense land use and land cover changes.

The ecosystems of Amazonia are subjected to two different, but

interconnected, climatic driving forces: one is regional deforestation and land use change such as biomass burning and forest fragmentation, which affects local and regional climate, and the second is global climate change (Salati et al., 2006, IPCC 2007, SREX 2012). Many studies indicate that both of these changes in climate will contribute to regional increases in temperature. However, uncertainties are still considerably high for

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In principle, deforestation and global warming acting synergistically could lead to drastic biome changes in Amazonia. Oyama and Nobre (2003) have shown that two stable vegetation-climate equilibrium states are possible in Tropical South America. One equilibrium state corresponds to the current vegetation distribution where tropical forest covers most of the Basin. The other equilibrium state corresponds to a land cover in which most of the eastern Amazonia is covered by scarce vegetation, with more open canopy and more drought resistant species. It is not a trivial scientific question to find out at which point the current stable state could switch (perhaps abruptly) to the second state, given the combined forcing of land use and cover change (e.g. deforestation, forest fragmentation, increased forest fire) and global warming with a likely consequence of more intense droughts ( such as the severe drought which affected the region in 2005 and 2010; Marengo et al 2008, 2011a, b, c, Zeng et al 2008, Tomasella et al., 2010, 2012).

Some model projections (Cox et al., 2004, Oyama and Nobre, 2004, Salazar et al., 2007, Betts et al., 2008, Sitch et al., 2008, Salazar et al., 2010) show over the next few decades this risk of abrupt and irreversible change in vegetation structure in the region, with large-scale loss of biodiversity and pressure on livelihoods. This process is referred to as the “die-back” of the Amazon forest, which occurs after reaching a “tipping point” in regional climate (e.g. air temperature) or in deforested area (e.g. beyond 40% of forest cover loss, according to Sampaio et al., 2007). If the current pace of change (land cover and climate) remains unaltered we may well only find out that the “climate-vegetation” equilibrium has been reached after we have passed the threshold for its establishment.

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temperature, and eventually affecting the regional hydrological cycle. In simple terms, the increase in temperature induces larger

evapotranspiration in tropical regions which tends to reduce the amount of soil water, even when rainfall does not reduce significantly. This can trigger the replacement of the present-day vegetation by other vegetation types more adapted to drier conditions. If severe droughts become more frequent in the future, which is a common projection for a warmer planet, eastern Amazonia would experience more dramatic changes in vegetation type cover, since the models simulate a higher probability for that area to face frequent and intense droughts (Hutyra et al., 2005).

Land cover and land use change are, per se, strong pressures over natural systems. On the other hand, the Amazon in South America is home to more than 40 million people, which, despite intense urbanization, still live and depend on the region’s natural resources. The Amazon is a heterogeneous and complex landscape, where multiple forces can potentially contribute to changes in land use and cover (e.g. deforestation). Global markets pressure for food and biofuels (Brasil, 2012; Foley et al., 2011; Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011; Lapola et al., 2010), new transportation and energy infrastructure projects (Brasil, 2011) and weak institutions (Vieira et al., 2008), can be cited as some of key drivers in this process.

In this report we present a literature review of different Land Use and Cover Change scenarios for the Amazon, with a focus on Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru (Figure 1). A short summary discusses the information available and highlights any research gaps related to climate change and land use and cover change scenarios. We also review current knowledge on climate variability and climate change in the region,

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2.

Land Use Change

 

2.1. Context

Land use data is the main input for land use and cover change scenarios. A few land use and cover (LUCC) datasets are available for the whole Amazon region. The Terra-i dataset is available with good spatial (250 m) and

temporal (annual from 2004-2011) resolution for the whole Amazon. Terra-i detects land-cover changes resulting from human activities in near real-time (updates every 16 days) (Terra-i, 2012). There is also a regional initiative from the Amazon Geo-referenced Socio-environmental Information Network (RAISG, www.raisg.socioambiental.org ), to obtain geo-referenced

information for all the countries within the Amazon Basin. Many

institutions that contribute to RAISG have worked on a deforestation map using a standardized methodology for the whole Basin for the years 2000-2005-2010 (RAISG, 2012).

In the Brazilian Amazon the PRODES project (INPE, 2012a) produces an annual deforestation map and estimates annual deforestation rates. DETER (INPE, 2012b) is an alert system which monitors deforestation monthly, allowing the government to take rapid action to control and prevent

deforestation. Recently, Terraclass (INPE, 2012c) was released, classifying the deforested areas in a Land Use Map for the Brazilian Amazon for the year of 2008 (in 30x30 m2 spatial resolution). In addition, Brazil executes an agricultural census every 10 years (the latest was released in 2006) (IBGE, 2006). Open and public access to satellite mapping datasets allows wide monitoring and analysis of Brazilian Amazon land use change by different stakeholders. The data is also important for drawing alternative land use scenarios for the future. Generally, scenarios that cover the entire Amazon Basin extrapolate data produced in Brazil, or combine these sources with global datasets (Table 1) for the rest of the countries. In this sense, there is a disproportionate amount of information and data available for the

Brazilian Amazon in comparison with the rest of the Amazon countries.

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use and cover change map for the lowlands generated by the Natural

History Museum Noel Kempff Mercado for the periods 1976-1990-2001-2004 and 2008 is available (Killen et al., 2007 and 2008), and recently Friends of Nature Foundation, a RAISG member, presented its Deforestation map of the Bolivian Lowlands and Yungas 2000-2005-2010 (FAN, 2012). In the same context the institution “Instituto del bien Común” presented the deforestation map of Peru for the same period (2000-2005-2010) (RAISG, 2012). Another interesting experience in Peru is the System to Monitor Land Cover, Deforestation and Forest Degradation for the years 2000-2005 and 2009 (MINAM Peru, 2011). In the Ecuadorian Amazon some LUCC data derived from satellite imagery interpretation also exists (i.e. Mena, 2008; Messina and Walsh, 2001). In Colombia there are publications that address LUCC data (e.g. Etter et al., 2006; CONPES, 2011) however Cuervo et al. (2012) mention that there is not a consistent wall-to-wall,

multi-temporal dataset for LUCC, and they generate a LUCC map from 2001-2010 in Colombia using MODIS (250 m) products coupled with high spatial

resolution imagery.

LUCC at the local level can be found also from REDD projects. A list of certified REDD projects is available from the Climate, Community & Biodiversity Alliance Standards (CBBA) (CBBA, 2012). Some of the available datasets are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1: Land use and cover change data

Level LUCC

GlobCover Global composites and land cover map

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real-time

deforestation map 60 m/annual

INPE, 2012a

DETER Monthly

deforestation alerts 250m/monthly

INPE, 2012b

IBGE Agricultural census data

2.2. Land use and cover change (LUCC)

The expansion of the agricultural frontier, climate change impacts, ecosystem conservation, public policies and social well-being compose a complex context in the Amazon. In this sense, various scenarios have been proposed looking at several potential trajectories of land use and their consequences for the landscape. These scenarios apply diverse

methodological approaches, use different scales and are built on top of a diverse set of premises depending on the issues they address. However, drivers related to climate change, ecosystem functioning/services and

biodiversity, are not included in ‘integrative modelling’ of land use change in the Amazon region. Therefore, potential feedbacks concerning changes to these drivers of the human alteration of land cover are not represented in the current scenarios.

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Table 2: Scenarios of land use and cover change 2. Order from Strength 3. Adapting Mosaic

1. Forest cover for Business-as-usual scenario

2. Forest cover for Governance scenario 2. Inching along the precipice

3. Light and shadow 4. The once-green hell

Gómez

2. Optimist: zones near infrastructure projects were more localized and protected areas near developments are less likely to be degraded

Laurance

1. Exclusion of all current protected areas

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4. Protected areas created until 2008

5. Protected areas created until 2002 plus expansion underway with support of the ARPA program.

3. Policy analysis: road paving and protected areas

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2.2.1. Global Scenarios

This study presents global scale models that, in the context of land use change, largely discuss the challenge of feeding a growing world while charting environmentally sustainable paths.

i. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA)

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2005) developed four

scenarios: “Global Orchestration”, “Order from Strength”, “Adapting Mosaic” and “TechnoGarden” that focus on ecosystem change and the impacts on human well-being. For land use and cover they represented only two scenarios (Figure 2); “Order from Strength”, more pessimistic and prioritizing national security, and “Techno Garden”, based on green technologies and ecological economies. In Figure 2, the MEA land use change scenarios showing the localised impacts of climate change on land use change patterns are also represented. The main contribution of a global effort such as this assessment is the recognition of interdependence between climate change, energy, biodiversity, wetlands, desertification, food, health, trade, and the economy, demonstrating the need for international

agreements (MEA, 2005).

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Figure 2. MEA (2005). Two scenarios of land use change for 2050. The maps on the left indicate global cover in 2000, and 2050 under each of the two scenarios. The maps on the right indicate the cause of changes in land use between 2000 and 2050, including shifts in biome types as a result of climate change.

ii. Future Agriculture – livestock, crops and land use

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world in balance", "Changed balance of power", "The world awakes" and "A fragmented world" ( Table 3).

Table 3. Five Scenarios for 2050– Conditions for Agriculture and Land Use

(Öborn, 2011)

Scenario Description

An

overexploited world

Population growth is high and poverty is prevalent. Unipolar world order (USA dominates) and the Western world shows relatively strong economic development. Political interest in the climate and environment is low. Climate change is large and there is considerable pressure on land resources.

A world in balance

Economic development is strong in large areas of the world and population increase is lower than the UN’s forecast. Strong intergovernmental actors are reaching global agreements on important issues. A global

environmental policy has contributed to keeping global warming relatively low and pressure on land resources has been limited.

Changed balance of power

Population growth is relatively low. The balance of power has moved from the West to China and India, countries whose economies are developing fast. Economic

development is weaker in Europe. Political ambitions regarding climate and the environment are low. A marked increase in global warming means that the main

agricultural areas have moved towards the north and the equator where rainforest is being felled.

The world awakes

Population growth is as the UN forecast. People and their rulers have realized at last how serious the consequences of climate change and global environmental problems are, and are therefore taking more responsibility for achieving long-term, sustainable development. There are several centers of power in the world and agricultural policy is characterized by deregulation and free trade. Rural areas in Europe are flourishing and have well developed

business enterprises.

A fragmented world

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iii. Lambin and Meyfroidt (2011)

These authors summarize various estimates for land demand in 2030 (Table 4) and show a global need for unused lands to be allocated to new croplands, biofuel crops, grazing lands, industrial forestry, and urban expansion. The low estimates represent a conservative view of both land reserve and additional land demand whereas the high estimates represent a slightly bolder view.

Table 4. Estimates of land use in 2000 and additional land demand for 2030

2.2.2. Amazon Basin

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of different strategies at different scales (global, regional, local). Within the Amazon region, most of these scenarios are constructed for the Brazilian Amazon, which has the largest area within the biome and the greater

historical changes in land use and deforestation rates, especially until 2004. Moreover, the Brazilian Amazon has a consistent and reliable land use and cover monitoring system from which data is used as a reference for the construction of most of the spatial models.

A current effort to produce land cover and land use change data for the entire basin will lead to an increase of land use change scenarios at the Amazon Basin scale (e.g. RAISG, 2012 and Terra-I, 2012). Gómez and Nagatani et al. (2009) developed four scenarios for the Amazon Basin from 2006-2026, based on consultation with stakeholders and decision-makers. The construction of these scenarios was founded on the identification and analysis of driving forces from which three critical uncertainties were selected; these were used to build the fundamental premises for each scenario: "role of public policies regulating the use of natural resources", "market behaviour" and "science, technology and innovation". Combining these three critical uncertainties four scenarios were developed:

• "Emergent Amazonia": improvement in the role of public policies; market forces provide incentives for sustainable production; and a reduction in the available science, technology and innovation necessary to optimize the sustainable use of its resources.

• "Inching along the precipice": improvement in the role of public policies; market forces provide incentives for the development of non-sustainable production; and a reduction in the available science, technology and innovation.

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• "The once-green hell": a reduction in the role of public policies; market forces provide incentives for the development of non-sustainable production; and an improvement in the available science, technology and innovation.

This work also analyzed other drivers, both socioeconomic and

environmental aspects, which helped shape the scenarios (summarized in Figure 3). Amazonia presents a complex heterogeneous system and

generalized scenarios face risks and uncertainties based on the diversity of contexts and local social processes.

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Most of land use change scenarios described in the literature only address human drivers of deforestation and do not consider the stress of climate change in land use change patterns. The study of Malhi et al. (2008) addresses the deforestation of the Amazon considering the impact of climate change as a relevant driver in future land use cover and change. This study compiled deforestation and climate change scenarios, overlapping and crossing them to show the possible links and relationship. In Figure 4 two scenarios to 2050 are shown.

Figure 4. Loss of forest cover overlapped with drought probability for 2050 (Malhi et al., 2008). A) Business as usual scenario. B) Increased governance scenario.

Besides external demand and climatic variables, internal factors

significantly influence land use change in the region. Many authors discuss these drivers, especially for Brazilian Amazon for which various scenarios have been constructed using this approach. Soares-Filho et al. (2006)

analysed the influence of conservation initiatives, especially protected areas, and also considered the impact of new paved roads as a key factor related to changes in land use in the region. This study, which covers all, but only, the Amazon Basin, developed eight scenarios for 2050, considering increases in infrastructure through paved roads, the enforcement of environmental and land tenure law and protected areas. The more pessimistic scenario

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and new protected areas would not be created. On the other hand, a more optimistic scenario ("Governance") included the enforcement of forest reserves, agro-ecological zoning of land use and the creation of new protected areas. The remaining scenarios were intermediate. This study shows a reduction from 5.3 million km2 to 3.2 million km2 of closed-canopy forest in the Amazon for 2050 in the "Business-as-usual" scenario and to 4.5 million km2 in the "Governance" scenario. Intermediate scenarios show that half of the reduction of deforestation is due to expanding protected areas and enforcement. Figure 5 shows the spatial distribution of deforestation in both extreme scenarios.

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2.2.3. Brazilian Amazon

The impact of interregional drivers on land use change, especially in the Brazilian Amazon, is considered in several other works, and the historical evolution of scenarios proposed hardly represents the actual situation of deforestation reduction since 2004. This does not invalidate the proposed models by different authors, or the potential future scenarios described in each study, as policy regulation may lose its current presence and strength.

Scenarios proposed by Laurance et al. (2001) focus on the discussion on the effects of "Avança Brasil" Program (Brasil, 1999), a National economic development plan proposed by the Brazilian Government over the years 2000-2007, in which several infrastructure projects in the Amazon were included. To calculate the impacts of new highways, railroads, gas pipelines, hydroelectric projects, power lines and river-channelization projects

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Figure 6. The future of the Brazilian Amazon for two different scenarios by the year 2020 (Laurence et al., 2001). Scenarios a) optimistic and b) pessimistic. Areas in black show deforested or heavily degraded regions, red shows moderately degraded, yellow lightly degraded and green is pristine

 

Table 5. Predicted rates of deforestation and degradation (Laurence, 2001)

Optimistic scenario

Pessimist scenario

Deforestation 2,690 Km2 per year 5,060 Km2 per year

Degraded (moderately or heavily)

15,300 Km2 per year 23,700 Km2 per year

The contribution of protected areas to possible reductions in deforestation is addressed in Soares-Filho et al. (2010). In this work five scenarios for 2050 that consider the importance of protected areas were developed for the

Brazilian Amazon: i) exclusion of all current protected areas, ii) all protected areas created until 2002 iii) protected areas established by 2008, except for 13 areas established in the 2003-2008 ARPA (Amazon Protected Area Program), iv) protected areas created until 2008, v) protected areas created until 2002 plus expansion underway with the support of the ARPA program. These land cover scenarios with different distributions of protected areas were combined with two socioeconomic scenarios: high and moderate

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and the other four scenarios depict the progressive contribution of protected areas to a reduction in deforestation. Figure 7 shows the results of

deforestation and emissions for each of the protected areas scenarios.

Figure 7. Deforestation and carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon biome: average of two socioeconomic scenarios with four protected areas scenarios (Soares-Filho et al. 2010).

The scenarios described in the studies by Laurence et al. (1999) and Soares-Filho et al. (2010) [and references therein], highlight the importance of infrastructure projects and protected areas for the landscape dynamics in the Amazon. Nevertheless, other internal and external factors also modulate

and regulate land use change and must be considered. For example, a recent

study by the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry (Brasil, 2012), which projected scenarios for Brazilian agro-business for 2022, shows an expressive increase in agriculture production in the next years, with expected growth in internal and external demand. This study projects an increase of 70,000km2 in crop production area, mainly concentrated in beans (47,000km2) and sugarcane (19,000km2). Considering these numbers, the pressure over forest areas could be enhanced.

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(2006), detailed in Table 6, highlight the importance of differences in market accessibility on determining drivers of land use change in the Brazilian Amazon. The main conclusions drawn from these scenarios were: (a) connection to national markets is the most important factor for capturing the spatial patterns of the new Amazonian deforestation frontiers; (b) intraregional dynamics are influenced by the interaction between connectivity (e.g. to local and national markets) and other factors (e.g. economic attractiveness, agrarian structure, environmental), where the importance of determining factors vary across the Amazonia; (c) these differences led to heterogeneous impact of policies (such as road paving, creation of protected areas, law enforcement) across the region. Together, the results of the five explorative scenarios presented in Table 6 are

complementary, helping to draw different aspects of the occupation process in the Brazilian Amazon.

Table 6. Scenario exploration summary of the LUCC (adapted by Aguiar, 2006)

Exploration Description Model

Scenarios

Allocation Demand Law

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and the

No Change Baseline Private reserves 50%

No Change Baseline

Market

To investigate the impacts of biofuels production, in Southeast and Central regions of Brazil, and its cascade effects over agricultural and cattle

ranching frontiers Lapola et al. (2010) focused on market pressure for land use scenarios until 2020. The direct and indirect land use changes in

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Figure 8, extracted from this work, presents the difference between land use maps with and without the expansion of biofuel plantations in 2020.

Figure 8. Indirect land use changes caused by the fulfillment of Brazil's biofuels production targets to 2020 (adapted by Lapola et al. 2010).

2.2.4. National Level

In this section national and subnational land use change and cover

scenarios or deforestation progressions for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are described. We also aim to give a broad view of the availability of data in these regions.

The information regarding land use change scenarios at country level is dispersed, and generally, the efforts to generate land use multi-temporal datasets are duplicated. This is mainly due to the lack of consistent and available official land use data.

i. Bolivia

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agriculture, (ii) cattle ranching, and (iii) small-scale agriculture. The study also analyses future deforestation trends (from 2004 to 2030) assuming that the deforestation rate remains constant (using 1992-2004 rates) for each proximate cause of deforestation. The results highlight the possible opening of new deforestation frontiers due to mechanized agriculture, where the drivers of deforestation are large-scale corporations from Bolivia or Brazil (mostly soybean producers), highly mechanized, medium-scale national landholders and Mennonite and Japanese foreign communities.

In addition, Andersen (2009) projected future deforestation until 2100 (methodology described in Andersen et al., 2009), highlighting that the total deforestation in 2100 could be 370,000 km2, with only 60,000 km2 remaining in flat areas and 70,000 km2 remaining in forest land with a slope of more than 25 %, driven by mechanized and subsistence agriculture, mostly in the lowlands, with high pressure on protected areas and indigenous territories. Both studies, whilst not scenario approaches, use actual deforestation status and general assumptions of deforestation in the future.

ii. Colombia

Studies in Colombia have highlighted the spatial patterns of forest

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iii. Ecuador

Messina and Walsh (2001) use a dynamic modelling approach to describe, explain, and explore the consequences of land use and cover change (LUCC) in the Ecuadorian Amazon. The study uses an integrated social, physical, public policy and technology approach with two example scenarios, “Plan Columbia Scenario” (drug control in the region) and “Beef Scenario”

(considering that cattle ranching increases due to global markets pressure), which are not compared against each other. In both cases the model shows a dramatic increase in the amount of urban areas and a significant decrease in the amount of dense forest. In another study, Mena (2008) analyses the spatial trajectories and probabilities of transitions in the LUCC of the

Northern Ecuadorian Amazon from 1974-2002, but does not generate future LUCC scenarios.

iv. Peru

In Peru the book “Peruvian Amazon for 2021” (Dourojeanni, 2009) addresses the future of the Peruvian Amazon until 2021, considering the high pressure of road and dam construction and both legal and illegal natural resources extraction. The study shows pessimistic and optimistic scenarios that quantify deforestation for each of the pressures of infrastructure

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3. Climate change scenarios

3.1 Climate change models

The Amazon has a critical role in the global carbon balance with high net primary productivity and as a huge carbon store, in both plant biomass and soil. It also plays a crucial role in the climate regulation and moisture

recycling and transport in South America through its effect on the local and regional water cycle.

Downscaling projections from Global Circulation Models for climate change in the Amazon indicate an increase in temperature (ranging from 0.5 to 8oC during the 21st century) and a reduction in precipitation (varying between 20% and 50%) depending on the IPCC emission scenario used (Marengo et al., 2011c). More detailed studies using higher resolution climate change scenarios, at 40 x 40 km, derived from the regional Eta Model run with the boundary conditions of the HadCM3 global model (CMIP3 model) indicate important changes in climate in the region up to 2100, including rainfall reduction in Amazonia by about 30-40% and warming of about 4-5 o C (Chou et al., 2011, Marengo et al., 2011c).

This report assesses future climate risks for South America using the new projections from the models available at the CMIP5 (Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project phase 5). These models will be presented in the next IPCC report (IPCC AR5) and are compared to the outputs of the CMIP3 models (used in the previous IPCC report, IPCC AR4) in figures 9, 10, 11 and 12. Figures 9 and 11 show average temperature and precipitation changes for 2015-2034 from 15 CMIP3 models, while Figures 10 and 12 show the mean temperature and rainfall anomalies from 9 models of CMIP5. For CMIP3 models the A2 emissions scenario of high GHG

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Concentration Pathway (RCP) is shown; 8.5 W/m2 (the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the period is 431 ppm).

The projected temperature warming derived from the CMIP3 global models for Amazonia range from 0.5 to 3°C for 2015-2034, but all models show the same tendency, i.e. warming (Figures 9 and 10). The analysis is much more complicated for rainfall changes (Figures 11 and 12). Different climate models show rather distinct patterns, even with almost opposite projections. In sum, current GCMs do not produce projections of changes in the

hydrological cycle at regional scales with confidence. That is a great limiting factor to the practical use of such projections for active adaptation or

mitigation policies.

The CMIP5 models project an even larger expansion of the South American Monsoon over southern Amazonia (Kitoh et al., 2011). In this study, eight CMIP3 and CMIP5 models were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections, and while no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new

generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over north-eastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil in the last decades of the 21st century. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer by 2100 (Blazquez and Nunez, 2012). On El Nino simulations and projections there are indications that ENSO may become more frequent in a warmer climate, however, the confidence is low because of large natural modulations of El Niño patterns, and there is no consistent indication of discernible changes in projected ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century in CMIP5

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and amplitude in sea surface temperature. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models tend to do somewhat better (Coelho and Goddard, 2009) at precipitation reductions associated with El Niño over equatorial South America.

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Figure 12 - Climate change projections for 2015-2034 of precipitation anomalies (mm/day) for 9 CMIP5 Global Earth System Models (with respect to each model’s average precipitation for the base period 1961-1990) for RCP 8.5. (Source: CMIP5, 2012 and Sampaio et al. – not published).

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Thus, a regional climate model should provide a better representation of a particular country’s climate than a global model.

This is why we used the Eta regional model from INPE run into the

HadCM3 global model, for the present (1961-1990) and future (2010-2100), for various realizations of the A1B emission scenario. Changes in rainfall and temperature in the South America region projected from the Eta-CPTEC high-resolution climate model over the 21st century are shown in Figure 13. As we move through the century, the projected changes become larger. Over the South America domain, there are areas predicted to become wetter in the future and other regions that are predicted to become drier (Figure 13a-c). On a finer scale, the Eta model also projects large percentage decreases in rainfall and increases in air temperatures over the Amazon, with the changes becoming more pronounced after 2040. For temperature (Figure 13 d-f) the projected warming in the tropical regions varies from 0.5 - 3 °C from 2010-40 to 6-8 °C by 2071-2100, with increases being largest in the Amazon region. In addition to changes in temperature, information about possible future changes in rainfall with its implications for water resources is critically important in climate change management decisions. The direct output from this particular model (Figure 14) indicates

substantial percentage decreases in summer (December-February) rainfall by the end of the 21st century. However, decreases in rainfall are projected throughout the year, not just in summer. It is always important to put the results in the context of other model projections, and it should be noted that the HadCM3 driving model simulates strong drying over Amazonia over the 21st century, while other GCMs do not. HadCM3 lies on the extreme drying end of the multi-model group of projections (Marengo et al 2011a). We can say that in general, CMIP models still show uncertainties in rainfall

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Figure 13 - Changes in rainfall (a-c, %) and in air temperature (d-f, °C) in South America for December-January-February 2010-40 (column 1), 2041-70 (column 2) and 2071-2100 (column 3) relative to 1961-90 derived from the downscaling of

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Figure 14 - Projected climate change over Brazil and the Amazon, Sao Francisco and Parana river basins by 2011-40, 2041-70 and 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 associated with different levels of global warming and CO2 concentrations. Direction of the changes in rainfall (%) is indicated by arrows, and the regional warming is also shown in the figure. Source: Marengo et al. 2011c.

3.2 Climate extreme events

Considering the extreme drought in 2005, and using a version of UK Hadley Centre global climate model, Cox et al. (2008) estimated how the probability of a ‘2005-like’ drought year in Amazonia changes over time. It suggests that under present conditions, 2005 was an approximately a 1-in-20-year event (one drought like 2005 would be expected in a 20-year period), but may become a 1-in-2-year event by 2025 and a 9-in-10-year event by 2060. In other words it may become the rule rather than the extreme. If severe droughts like that of 2005 do become more frequent in the future this demands adaptation measures to avoid impacts on the population,

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2011b), show how local populations are vulnerable to climate extremes: local farmers are affected by drought due to high temperatures and dry

conditions; and river levels are extremely low making transportation along the main channels impossible, which in many cases is the only way for populations to move around and remain connected. Two record extreme droughts in less than five years is something that has highlighted the negative impacts of extremes of climate variability and climate change in the region. There is positive evidence that effective measures directed towards climate change mitigation are needed. Examples would include the reduction of deforestation and also in the emissions of GHG, reducing

warming and thus impacts. Effective measures sought by decision-makers should also include adaptation plans to cope with the possibility of extreme droughts and floods becoming more frequent and intense in Amazonia in the near term.

3.3 Climate change and land use change

The combination of climate change, on a long-term and large scale, and deforestation, through changing local climate patterns, might result in a warmer and possibly drier climate in the Amazon region. The positive

feedback of these processes, with possible changes in the Amazon vegetation structure (“savannization”) and forest die back, is illustrated in Figure 15. In general, changes in humidity (e.g. precipitation amount, frequency) and increases in temperature can cause forest decline. A key element is the ecological adaptation to the intensity and frequency of drought spells. As observed by Choat et al (2012) the xylem embolism could represent a serious risk for forests in adapting to changes in climate. Species more resilient to longer periods with water deficit in the soil and higher atmospheric water demand, which forces evapotranspiration, are the ones that will last longer in drier climate conditions. This might cause change in the forest

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Figure 15: Simplified potential mechanisms of Amazon ‘die-back’. CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas emitted, but is highlighted here because of its importance in climate change, its role in the earth’s carbon budget, and effects on plant physiology relevant to the Amazon rainforest. Through feedbacks on the global and regional climates, loss of the Amazon forest may also have implications for the climate, ecosystems and populations lying outside the Amazon basin (Marengo et al 2011d).

Forest fire is another key process acting on land cover changes, the

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4. Case study - Climate extreme events in Amazonia:

imminent threats to human security

The last seven years have featured severe droughts and floods in Amazonia, with some of these events characterized at the time as “once in a century” seasonal extremes. These relatively recent extreme climatic events in the Amazon demonstrate the potential threat of such events to water security for humans and for ecosystems. Droughts were experienced in 2005 and 2010 while severe floods occurred in 2009, 2011 and 2012 in various sectors of the Amazon.

Various studies have shown that inter-annual variability of rainfall and consequently of rivers in the Amazon region is in part attributed to variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific,

manifested as the extremes of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and in the meridional SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic, or to a combination of both (See reviews in Ronchail et al 2002, Zeng et al 2008, Yoon and Zeng 2010 and Marengo et al 2008, 2011c, d, 2012a, b, Espinoza et al 2009, 2011, 2012, Tomasella et al 2010, 2012, Aragao et al 2007, and Coelho et al., 2012).

Figure 16 shows rainfall anomalies as derived from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (Marengo et al 2008) data sets for three dry and three wet years in Amazonia for the summer time peak rainfall season December-February. The main difference among dry years is the regional distribution of negative rainfall anomalies across the region. In 1997-1998, negative rainfall anomalies covered almost all Amazonia, while in 2005 and 2010 the anomalies were restricted to Southern and Northern Amazonia,

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patterns in the basins of the main Amazon rivers. However, changes in river levels are not proportional to the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies, and in one or more sections of the Amazonian rivers, short or long-term changes in stream flow cannot be explained in terms of rainfall variability alone (Sternberg 1987, Marengo et al 2008, and Tomasella et al 2010).

Most of these extreme events were classified as such using river data statistics rather than on rainfall anomalies, considering that flood and drought hazards represent the integrated impacts due to changes in rainfall across the basin. River data is perhaps the best indicator of impacts due to excessive or deficient rainfall in the basin. At the Amazon main channel, or on the tributaries in the northern (Rio Negro) and southern basins

(Solimões and Madeira Rivers), levels could vary in the same sense, or not, because rainfall anomalies may exhibit different spatial coverage.

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Amazonia was that one of 1925-26 (Meggers et al 1994, Williams et al 2005), when drought and fires killed many people.

The 2005 drought caused a simultaneous recession of the major tributaries of the Amazon river which led to a sharp fall in Amazon river runoff

(Marengo et al 2008, Zeng et al 2008, Tomasella et al., 2010). Similar

behaviour has been observed after the 2010 drought (Marengo et al., 2011c, d, 2012a, b). The impact of the 2005 and 1997-98 drought on floodplain communities was studied by Tomasella et al (2012) who found that since all economic activities of these communities depend on the hydrological regime of the main stem they were heavily impacted by the droughts. Their results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because

rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry

season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion

of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with

higher fish mortality rates (Pinho et al, 2012). Based on the fact that the

stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the

non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive

effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing

community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have

been equally severe.

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emergency was declared in 52 of the 62 districts of this State. The rising levels of the Solimões River and the Rio Negro, the two main branches of the Amazonia River, led to floods in both rural areas along the riverbanks and in neighborhoods of the city of Manaus. Similar situations were observed in the rivers in the Peruvian, Colombian and Bolivian Amazonia, for both drought and flood extremes.

Studies into these extreme events conclude that changes in the timing of positive and negative rainfall anomalies puts river discharges from the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river 'in phase' resulting in extreme (positive and negative) discharges whereas in 'normal' years, the timing is different attenuating the main-stem flood waves (Tomasella, 2010; Marengo et al., 2011b, d, 2012a, b). Such unexpected and high magnitude changes in water availability are likely to have a great impact on water security in the region, for transportation, agriculture and hydroelectric generation. Hydropower potential is directly associated with discharge and therefore generally increases when forests are replaced with crops and pastures because forests tend to release more vapor to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, leaving less water for river discharge

(Bruijnzeel 1991). Ecological impacts of extremes may affect the ecological functioning of trees; and large potential impacts on regional biogeochemical and carbon cycles can be related to increase forest fires and biomass

burning, as those observed during the droughts of 2005 and 2010 in Amazonia. Lewis et al (2012) showed that while in most years the forests are a carbon sink, drought (such as in 2005 and 2010) reverses this sink to behave as a source.

There are limited quantitative results about the effects of changes in climate for human activities in the Amazon. The uncertainties in the

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Figure 17 - Time series of level anomalies (mm/month) of the Rio Negro at Manaus since 1903, for the peak season May-July. Anomalies are in relation to the 1902-2012 mean. Dry and wet years are shown in red and blue colors, respectively.

5. Conclusions and Policy Options

The synergistic combinations of local to regional climate impacts, due to deforestation, and global climate change, result in warmer and possibly drier conditions in the Amazon basin. The forests recovery after an extreme dry event might take much longer than previous thought (Saatchi et al, 2013; Choat et al, 2012), leading to an increased vulnerability if the frequency of these events increases in the future.

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evidence that these two drivers of change in forest cover are unlikely to act independently of one another.

The Amazon is a mosaic of different environmental, political and

socioeconomic interactions, compounding a complex and heterogeneous region. This complexity requires wide analyzes which consider interactions between various factors involved in the processes. In this report, we have explored several studies aiming to evaluate the impacts of alternative pathways for land use in the region and consequently the importance of some drivers in land use change dynamics.

Among these drivers it is important to consider the interaction between intraregional factors, such as infrastructure projects, protected areas, law enforcement, and external forces such as increases in demand for food and biofuels. The suit of drivers, within complex and local particular

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These aspects affect local policy options, institutional arrangements and social opportunities in each country in the Amazon basin. We summarize the main contrasting trends:

In Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador the current published knowledge on LUCC patterns and dynamics does not have enough historical trend

analysis to allow further analysis on LUCC scenarios. Recent efforts of land use and cover change data generation (for instance produced by RAISG, 2012: Terra-I, 2012) will improve the quantity and quality of information allowing the production of better LUCC scenarios. What is clear is that the deforestation rates in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador are increasing significantly in the past recent years (less so in the case of Colombia). Despite the low or recent production of land cover data, the studies cited in this report suggest that deforestation and land use change shall increase in the future.

Therefore, enhancing the economic value of local products and the

promotion of sustainable land use mechanisms are key actions, and options that could work to reduce poverty and maintain ecosystem services. Land tenure in these regions is also an issue to be urgently solved. The legal support for landowners would help make land use and environment

conservation policies more effective. Currently there is no view, in the short-term, that climate change perspectives drive land use actions under such a social-political framework, however, considering current climate variation (as reviewed in this report), this should be strongly considered.

In Brazil, pressures for new productive areas in order to meet the demand for food and biofuel have progressively increased. This fact, associated with the land market and timber industry, has caused a fast increase in

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annual estimate of deforestation rate was estimated at 4656 km2. This rate is very close to what Brazil has set as target, for greenhouse gases emission reduction until 2020, in the COP15 (Copenhagen, 2009). However, the pressure over the forest is not dwindling, and different patterns of deforestation and forest degradation are being observed in the region (DEGRAD-INPE, http://www.obt.inpe.br/degrad/).

Thus, continuous efforts to secure compliance with environmental laws, but also on proposing innovative and economic sustainable production activities for local communities are crucial. As in other Amazonian regions, the land tenure situation needs to be solved, as well as strategic definition of new conservation areas (as being suggested by some authors), and an integrative plan to develop economic activities in the region, to reduce poverty and create new opportunities (for instance valuating environmental services and biodiversity preservation).

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Gambar

Figure 1: Study area
Table 1: Land use and cover change data
Table 2.
Table 2: Scenarios of land use and cover change
+7

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