Fixed Income Daily Notes

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Teks penuh

(1)

Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 Although United Kingdom’s economy was slowing down, at Thursday council meeting, BoE was still hiking their interest rates 25 bps, from 0.50% to 0.75%, highest since 2008 financial crises. According to BoE Governor, Mark Carney, monetary policy of BoE could not be hindered by Brexit, and Brexit did not mean that BoE must lowering interest rates. Furthermore, even though BoE predicted that current economic condition of United Kingdom could led to fulfillment of inflation target, BoE also had anticipated tightening risk of interest rates hike.

 Yesterday, August 02, US 10-year treasury yield mengalami perlambatan ekonomi, Bank of England (BoE), dalam pertemuan pada hari Kamis, tetap memutuskan untuk menaikan tingkat suku bunga sebesar 25 bps, dari sebelumnya sebesar 0,5% menjadi 0,75%. Kenaikan ini sendiri menjadikan tingkat suku bunga BoE yang tertinggi sejak krisis finansial global 1 dekade yang lalu. Menurut Gubernur BoE, Mark Carney, BoE tetap harus menaikkan tingkat suku bunga tanpa harus dibatasi dengan kondisi Brexit, dan kondisi Brexit bukan berarti BoE harus menurunkan tingkat suku bunga. Lebih lanjut, meskipun BoE memprediksi bahwa percepatan ekonomi akan menjaga inflasi sesuai target, mereka sudah bersiap menghadapi resiko sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.486 – Rp14.543 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,66% - 7,73%.

Maturities (Year) 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

(2)

Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0063 92.00 7.65 1467 BNII02BCN1 idAAA 98.20 7.16 200 FR0059 94.49 7.88 1180 SWMEDP01B idA(sy) 100.00 9.75 200 FR0071 107.00 8.01 845 BSMT01SBCN1 idBBB+ 100.08 8.08 113 FR0068 103.10 8.02 796 ADMF04BCN1 idAAA 100.02 6.14 70 FR0073 104.50 8.17 581 PIKI01C idAA 100.10 7.42 62 FR0065 89.70 7.81 542 ISAT01CCN3 idAAA 105.07 7.66 50 FR0056 103.00 7.87 515 TINS01BCN1 idA+ 99.10 6.99 40 SPN12190214 97.19 5.50 499 AKRA01B idAA- 101.30 6.83 34 FR0075 96.25 7.88 457 BIIF01ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.95 7.21 33 PBS013 100.00 6.23 448 BNGA02ACN2 idAAA 100.03 6.34 30

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 2-Aug

Indonesia (JCI) 6012 -21.70 -0.36% -5.41% 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1778 -10.18 -0.57% -1.04% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1708 -13.73 -0.80% -2.59% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3286 -42.63 -1.28% -3.4% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 27715 -626.18 -2.21% -7.4% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22513 -234.17 -1.03% -1.11% 10-Year 2.99 3.01 2.98 2.83 Shanghai 2768 -56.51 -2.00% -16.30% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25326 -7.66 -0.03% 2.46% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7576 -76.98 -1.01% -1.45% UK 1.37 1.38 1.28 1.26 DAX 12546 -190.72 -1.50% -2.9% Germany 0.46 0.48 0.40 0.30

France 0.78 0.78 0.70 0.64

FX Rate 2-Aug China 3.47 3.46 3.54 3.50

2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.03

USD/IDR 14,515 14,444 14,470 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.302 1.313 1.311 Thailand 2.72 2.72 2.71 2.56 USD/JPY 111.7 111.7 111.2 Malaysia 4.03 4.04 4.08 4.15 USD/SGD 1.369 1.362 1.364 Singapore 2.49 2.47 2.41 2.45 USD/THB 33.29 33.16 33.41 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.070 4.067 4.065 INDO-22 3.76 3.74 3.76 3.94 INDO-27 4.36 4.31 4.26 4.52

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.00 4.96 4.89 5.23

Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.59 0.21 0.10 Money Market 2-Aug

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.12 3.23 3.41 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.72 2.75 2.69 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 4.75 4.25 O/N 5.01 5.01 5.00 4.92 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 119.8 122.9 124.9 1M 6.41 6.43 6.51 7.16

3M 7.08 7.08 7.13 7.32

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.10

2-Aug 41.95 118.15 193.93 3M 2.35 2.35 2.34 2.34

(-1 Day) 43.18 114.64 194.47 6M 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.52 (-1 Week) 42.32 106.53 175.17 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 54.05 132.91 221.05 Deposit 1M 5.76 5.75 5.68 5.67 (-1 Year) 43.21 108.43 180.50 Lending 13.7 13.2 13.5 14.0

Benchmark 2-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 98.23 98.20 3 7.54% FR0059 94.88 95.00 -12 7.81% FR0074 94.69 94.57 12 8.14% FR0072 100.29 100.18 10 8.22%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 01, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 27-Jul-18 30-Jul-18 31-Jul-18 1-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 575.42 579.77 577.20 578.33

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 108.25 102.50 102.39 100.99

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 112.7 112.9 112.9 113.0

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 189.5 189.6 189.7 189.8

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 835.87 836.82 839.26 839.29

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 208.87 208.88 209.07 209.08

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.09 63.23 63.28 63.39

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.33 132.34 132.22 132.17

Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,226.06 2,226.07 2,226.06 2,226.06

(3)

Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 2-Aug-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0038

15-Aug-18

0.04

11.600%

100.41

-4.69%

100.59

-17.6

FR0048

15-Sep-18

0.12

9.000%

100.55

3.76%

100.55

0.0

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.70

7.875%

101.04

6.30%

100.99

4.5

FR0036

15-Sep-19

1.12

11.500%

105.08

6.65%

105.11

-2.6

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.29

11.000%

107.94

7.15%

107.92

2.1

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.87

12.800%

114.01

7.27%

113.88

13.1

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.95

8.250%

102.43

7.31%

102.49

-6.1

FR0061

15-May-22

3.79

7.000%

98.23

7.54%

98.20

3.1

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.87

12.900%

117.33

7.62%

117.29

4.2

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.95

10.250%

108.73

7.64%

108.72

1.0

FR0063

15-May-23

4.79

5.625%

92.19

7.60%

92.19

0.7

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.95

9.500%

107.33

7.69%

107.28

4.5

FR0039

15-Aug-23

5.04

11.750%

116.44

7.74%

116.32

11.8

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.62

8.375%

102.97

7.71%

102.84

12.8

FR0044

15-Sep-24

6.13

10.000%

110.85

7.74%

110.70

14.6

FR0040

15-Sep-25

7.13

11.000%

117.18

7.80%

117.06

11.6

FR0037

15-Sep-26

8.13

12.000%

124.66

7.83%

124.62

3.5

FR0056

15-Sep-26

8.13

8.375%

103.27

7.82%

103.28

-0.9

FR0059

15-May-27

8.79

7.000%

94.88

7.81%

95.00

-12.1

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.96

10.250%

114.91

7.89%

114.91

-0.2

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.55

10.000%

113.58

7.94%

113.57

1.7

FR0064

15-May-28

9.79

6.125%

89.27

7.71%

89.27

0.6

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.62

9.000%

107.16

7.98%

106.99

17.2

FR0052

15-Aug-30

12.04

10.500%

118.00

8.13%

118.65

-65.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.79

8.750%

104.82

8.13%

104.75

6.8

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.96

9.500%

110.70

8.15%

110.46

23.3

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.88

8.250%

100.65

8.17%

101.00

-35.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

14.05

7.500%

94.69

8.14%

94.57

12.4

FR0065

15-May-33

14.79

6.625%

87.67

8.07%

87.59

7.6

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.63

8.375%

101.46

8.21%

101.46

0.6

FR0072

15-May-36

17.80

8.250%

100.29

8.22%

100.18

10.1

FR0045

15-May-37

18.80

9.750%

113.67

8.31%

113.523

14.3

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

93.98

8.11%

94.14

-16.0

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.96

10.500%

120.77

8.34%

119.50

127.0

FR0057

15-May-41

22.80

9.500%

110.70

8.43%

110.75

-4.6

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.72

6.375%

78.79

8.46%

78.89

-10.1

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.97

8.750%

103.07

8.45%

103.12

-5.3

FR0076

15-May-48

29.81

7.375%

88.50

8.48%

88.55

-5.6

(4)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (July 30 - August 03 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

31 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Jun-18 5.9% 6.0% -

01 Inflation Rate (YoY) Jul-18 3.18% 3.12% 3.03%

01 Core Inflation Rate (YoY) Jul-18 2.87% 2.72% 2.69%

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

30 Inflation Rate Prel. (YoY) Germany Jul-18 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%

31 BoJ Interest Rate Japan - -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

31 NBS Manufacturing PMI China Jul-18 51.2 51.5 51.2

31 Economic Growth Rate Flash. (YoY) Euro Area Quarter-II 2.1% 2.5% 2.5%

31 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Jun-18 8.3% 8.3% 8.5%

01 ADP Employment Change US Jul-18 219 thousand 181 thousand 174 thousand

01 Crude Oil Inventory US July 20 - 2018 3.80 million barrel -6.15 million barrel -0.09 million barrel Week Ended,

02 Fed Interest Rate US - 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

02 BoE Interest Rate Kingdom United - 0.75% 0.50% 0.75%

02 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 218 thousand 217 thousand 219 thousand

02 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 21-2018 1724 thousand 1742 thousand 1754 thousand

03 Balance of Trade US Jun-18 - -43.1 billion USD -41.0 billion USD

03 Unemployment Rate US Jul-18 - 4.0% 4.0%

(5)

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

Head Office

Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2

Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A

Jakarta 12790

DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.

Dealing Room

Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

eva@megasekuritas.id

Head of Debt Capital

Market

Cicih Sukaesih

cicih@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

palupi@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

qolbie@megasekuritas.id

Economist &

Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id Administrative

Figur

Memperbarui...

Referensi

Memperbarui...

Related subjects :