ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Saham Asia rebound pada hari Senin menyusul Wall Street raih momentumnya dalam pekan yang penuh dengan laporan earnings. Naiknya saham Taiwan sebesar 0,9% memberi dukungan utama bagi naiknya indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang. Sementara Nikkei naik 0,2% didukung oleh naiknya saham perbankan, setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump memerintahkan untuk menata ulang regulasi dalam industri keuangan usai krisis keuangan hampir 1 dekade lalu. Trump akan bertemu dengan PM Shinzo Abe pada 10-11 Februari mendatang dengan agenda masalah perdagangan dan mata uang.

 Eropa: Bursa Eropa melemah pada hari Senin, tertekan oleh saham otomotif dan perbankan. Indeks STOXX 600 turun 0,6%

sementara FTSE 100 Inggris juga terkoreksi oleh melemahnya saham energi dan perumahan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup melemah 0,2% pasca hit intraday high di 7208,73 (level tertinggi sejak 20 Januari).

 AS & Global Markets: Bursa AS jatuh di hari Senin kemarin dipimpin oleh turunnya saham sektor energi menyusul merosotnya harga minyak. Saham eropa dan euro juga tertekan oleh ketidakpastian politik global. Investor menunggu rincian lebih lanjut tentang kebijakan ekonomi Presiden Donald Trump, sementara kekhawatiran tetap berlanjut atas politik Perancis menjelang pemilihan presiden pada bulan April.

 Weekahead: Minggu ini fokus pasar akan tertuju pada data ekonomi Cina, seperti indeks PMI sektor jasa, cadangan devisa dan mungkin angka perdagangan. China tumbuh lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan 6,8 persen pada kuartal keempat, didorong oleh belanja pemerintah yang lebih tinggi dan besarnya pinjaman perbankan. Tapi ekonomi masih menghadapi resiko dari pendinginan pasar perumahan dan kemungkinan langkah-langkah proteksionis dari Amerika Serikat. Di zona euro, akan ada data produksi industri dari Jerman, Perancis, Spanyol dan Italia. Semuanya diharapkan menunjukkan pertumbuhan.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

20125.58 (26/Jan/2017)

2300.99 (26/Jan/2017)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2016 HIGH 19592.90

(21/Dec/16)

264.42 (21/Dec/16)

24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

19987.63 (20/Dec/16)

2277.53 (13/Dec/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2017 HIGH 19999.63

(06/Jan/2017)

271.25 (02/Feb/2017)

23439.02 (02/Feb/2017)

20125.58 (26/Jan/2017)

2300.99 (26/Jan/2017)

3174.57810 (10/Jan/2017) 2017 LOW 18650.33

(18/Jan/2017)

258.64 (02/Jan/2017)

21883.82 (03/Jan/2017)

19677.94 (19/Jan/2017)

2245.13 (03/Jan/2017)

3044.29120 (16/Jan/2017) 2016 LOW 14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 06 February 2017

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 20052.42  19.04/ 0.09% .N225 18976.71  58.51/0.31%

/.SPX 2292.56  4.86/ 0.21% .KS200 269.49  0.64/0.24%

/.IXIC 5663.552  3.214/ 0.06% .HSI 23348.24  219.03/0.95%

JPY= 111.71  0.99/ 0.88% /.SSEC 3157.37280  17.20280/0.55%

KRW= 1133.59  3.92 / 0.34% /CLc1 (Oil) 53.10  0.73/1.36%

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RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

MON/06-Feb-17 07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Jan 0.6% -- 0.5%

07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Jan 2.1% -- 1.8%

07:00 JP Overtime Pay Dec -1.9% -- -1.3%

07:00 JP Labor Cash Earnings YoY Dec 0.1% -- 0.2%

07:00 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Dec -0.4% -- -0.2%

07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Jan 4.0% -- -1.9%

07:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Dec -0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.

07:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ Q4 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% 0.0%

14:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Dec 5.2% 0.5% -2.5% -3.6%

14:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Dec 8.1% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0%

15:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Jan 52.0 -- 54.9

16:10 EZ Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan 50.1 -- 50.4

16:10 DE Markit Germany Retail PMI Jan 50.3 -- 52

16:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Feb 17.4 17.4 18.2

22:00 US Employment Trends Jan 130.04 -- 129.6 129.73

TUE/07-Feb-17 06:50 JP Official Reserve Assets Jan -- $1216.9b

06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Dec 1294.5b 1415.5b

06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Jan -- 2.6%

07:01 GB BRC Retail Sales YY Jan 0.8% 1.0%

07~10 Feb 08:00 CN Foreign Reserves (Monthly) Jan -- 3.011t

08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Services Jan -- 53.4

09:00 NZ 2Yr Inflation Expectation Q1 -- 1.68%

10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target 7-Feb 1.50% 1.50%

12:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll SA Jan -- 51.4

12:00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Dec -- 1.6

12:00 JP Leading Indicator Dec -- 1.9

12:30 AU Foreign Reserves Jan -- A$76.1b

13:45 CH Consumer Confidence Q1 -- -13

14:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Dec 0.4% 0.4%

14:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Dec -- 2.2%

15:00 CH Foreign Currency Reserves Jan -- 645.3b

15:30 HK Foreign Reserves Jan -- $386.20b

15:30 GB Halifax House Price MM Jan 0.0% 6.5%

15:30 GB Halifax House Price 3Mths/YY Jan 6.0% 6.5%

07~15 Feb 16:30 GB Mortgage Rate Jan -- 4.3%

19:00 NZ Dairy Prices w/e -- 0.6%

19:00 NZ Milk Auctions w/e -- 3517.0T

20:30 CA Building Permits MoM Dec -- -0.1%

20:30 CA Trade Balance C$ Dec 0.35b 0.53b

20:30 CA Exports C$ Dec -- 45.61b

20:30 CA Imports C$ Dec -- 45.09b

20:30 CA Ivey PMI Jan -- 49.4

20:30 CA Ivey PMI SA Jan -- 60.8

20:30 US Trade Balance Dec -$45.0b -$45.2b

WED/08-Feb-17 02:00 NZ Cen Bank Interest Rate N/A -- 1.75%

03:00 US Consumer Credit Dec $20.00b $24.53b

04:45 NZ Building Consents Dec -- -9.2%

05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Jan -- 47.0

06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions at Jan. 30-31 Meeting

06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Dec ¥1171.7b ¥1415.5b

06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Dec ¥1706.6b ¥1799.6b

06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Dec ¥770.0b ¥313.4b

09:00 CN BoP Current Account Balance Q4 -- $69.3b

10:00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Dec -- 8.0%

20:15 CA Housing Starts. Annualized Jan -- 184.0k

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -- 6.466m

22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e -- 1.568m

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(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)

22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e -- 3.866m

THU/09-Feb-17 03:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 9-Feb 1.75% 1.75%

04:45 NZ Building Permits MoM Dec -- -9.20%

06:50 JP Machine Orders MoM Dec 3.1% -5.1%

06:50 JP Machine Orders YoY Dec 4.6% 10.4%

07:00 AU HIA New Home Sales MoM Dec -- 6.1%

07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Q4 -- 5

13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Jan -- 4.4%

13:45 CH Unemployment Rate Jan 3.6% 3.5%

13:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.3% 3.3%

14:00 DE Trade Balance Dec 21.4b 21.7b

14:00 DE Current Account Balance Dec -- 24.6b

14:00 DE Exports SA MoM Dec -1.10% 3.90%

14:00 DE Imports SA MoM Dec -1.0% 3.5%

16:00 AU RBA Governor Lowe Speech in Sydney

20:30 CA New Housing Price Index MoM Dec -- 0.2%

20:30 CA New Housing Price Index YoY Dec -- 3.0%

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 250k 246k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e -- 248k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.060k 2.064m

21:10 US Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis

22:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Dec 0.5% 0.4%

22:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec 1.0% 1.0%

FRI/10-Feb-17 01:10 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago

06:50 JP PPI MoM Jan 0.2% 0.6%

06:50 JP PPI YoY Jan 0.0% -1.2%

07:30 AU RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

07:30 AU Home Loans MoM Dec 1.0% 0.9%

07:30 AU Investment Lending Dec -- 4.9%

11:30 JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM Dec -0.2% 0.2%

16:30 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Dec -£1145 -£12163

16:30 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Dec -£330 -£3577

16:30 GB Trade Balance Dec -- -£4167

16:30 GB Industrial Production MoM Dec 0.2% 2.1%

16:30 GB Industrial Production YoY Dec 3.2% 2.0%

16:30 GB Manufacturing Production MoM Dec 0.4% 1.3%

16:30 GB Manufacturing Production YoY Dec 1.7% 1.2%

16:30 GB Construction Output SA MoM Dec 1.0% -0.2%

16:30 GB Construction Output SA YoY Dec -0.5% 1.5%

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate Jan -- 6.9%

20:30 CA Net Change in Employment Jan -- 53.7k

20:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Jan -- 81.3k

20:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Jan -- -27.6k

20:30 CA Participation Rate Jan -- 65.80%

20:30 US Import Price Index MoM Jan 0.2% 0.4%

20:30 US Export Price Index MoM Jan 0.1% 0.3%

22:00 GB NIESR GDP Estimate Jan -- 0.5%

22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Prelim Feb 97.9 98.5

22:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Prelim Feb 110.9 111.3

22:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Prelim Feb 89.0 90.3

SAT/11-Feb-17 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 10-Feb -- --

02:00 US Federal Budget. $ Jan -- -28.0b

19:30 US Fed's Fischer to Address Economics Conference in U.K.

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SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017

 Koreksi breakout area support di 18800, hit low di 18795

 Waspadai RSI dekat zona oversold

 Short-term resistance di sekitar 19095 – 19285 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

06 Feb SSIpmH7 18960 19025 18795 230 18840 ---  110 0.58 17005

06 Feb SSIamH7 19090 19095 18885 210 18950 18950  5 0.03 41200

03 Feb SSIpmH7 18955 19095 18950 145 19060 ---  105 0.55 22278

03 Feb SSIamH7 19070 19075 18800 275 18955 18955  10 0.05 64545

02 Feb SSIpmH7 18950 19045 18890 155 19040 ---  95 0.50 23424

02 Feb SSIamH7 19155 19165 18850 315 18945 18945  260 1.35 52018

01 Feb SSIpmH7 19205 19285 19125 160 19185 ---  20 0.10 21859

01 Feb SSIamH7 18970 19210 18900 310 19205 19205  215 1.13 51197

31 Jan SSIpmH7 19015 19110 18815 295 18985 ---  5 0.03 35236

31 Jan SSIamH7 19130 19190 18955 235 18990 18990  335 1.73 67637

WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

19095 18795 19285 18795 19695 18635 19695 18635

(06/Feb) (06/Feb) (01/Feb) (06/Feb) (09/Jan) (18/Jan) (09/Jan) (18/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

19555 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19390 Crucial resistance

19285 Pivot line (1-H chart)

19095 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

18795 Reaction low (1-H chart)

18750 Pivot line (1-D chart)

18565 Pivot line (1-D chart)

18490 Low 08/Dec/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 18945

STOP LOSS 19100

TARGET 18815

18725

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KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017

 Rebound dekati area 272, hit high di 271.70

 Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought

 Trendline support di sekitar 268.30

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

06 Feb 271.30 271.70 269.20 2.50 270.05 270.05  0.25 0.09 113320

03 Feb 269.70 269.95 267.90 2.05 269.80 269.80  0.60 0.22 116593

02 Feb 269.95 271.60 268.50 3.10 269.20 269.20  1.00 0.37 116104

01 Feb 269.60 270.30 269.45 0.85 270.20 270.20  1.00 0.37 61713

31 Jan 269.90 270.30 268.95 1.35 269.20 269.20  1.80 0.66 80052

27~30 Jan H O L I D A Y

271.70 269.20 271.70 267.90 271.50 259.25 271.70 259.25

(06/Feb) (06/Feb) (06/Feb) (03/Feb) (26/Jan) (02/Jan) (06/Feb) (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

276.25 High 24/Apr/2015 (Peak)

273.35 High 27/Apr/2015

272.35 High 28/Apr/2015

271.70 High 06/Feb/2017

SUPPORT

267.90 Low 03/Feb/2017

266.90 Reaction low (1-H chart)

265.90 Low 23/Jan/2017

264.15 Low 11/Jan/2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 268.75

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 267.75

TARGET 270.65

272.10

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HSIG7 (Hang Seng Feb Futures) – Exp. Date: 27 February 2017

 Area krusial di 23150 diuji lagi

 Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar 23550

 Sedangkan trendline support di sekitar 23000

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

06 Feb 23136 23298 23071 227 23250 23250  224 0.97 76908

03 Feb 23198 23205 22914 291 23026 23026  101 0.44 67503

02 Feb 23270 23404 23048 356 23127 23127  192 0.82 72534

01 Feb 23199 23332 23028 304 23319 23319  26 0.11 66254

30~31 Jan H O L I D A Y

27 Jan (HSIG7) 23250 23359 23236 123 23345 23332  21 0.09 33040

26 Jan (HSIG7) 23160 23392 23100 292 23366 23365  365 1.59 69167

23298 23071 23404 22914 23392 21863 23404 21863

(06/Feb) (06/Feb) (02/Feb) (03/Feb) (26/Jan) (03/Jan) (02/Feb) (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

24077 High 11/Oct/2016

23653 High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak)

23550 Trendline resistance

23422 Reaction high (1-D chart)

SUPPORT

23071 Reaction low (1-H chart)

22914 Low 03/Feb/2017

22853 Low 23/Jan/2017 (Bottom)

22671 Low 16/Jan/2017 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 23150

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 23050

TARGET 23315

23475