Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 At Friday, September 21 2018, yield of US 10-years flat at 3.06% because investors were waiting The Fed decision this week. On the other hand, global benchmark bond yield moved downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds, that moved downward to 1.55% and 0.46%.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Jum’at, 21 September ditutup datar di level 3,06% akibat investor yang cenderung menunggu pertemuan The Fed pada government securities tomorrow, September 25. There are 6 auctioned government securities; SPN03181226 (New Issuance), SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0077 (New Issuance), FR0078 (New Issuance), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075 (Reopening).

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken moderately because

 Pada hari Selasa, 25 September 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang akan dilelang ialah SPN03181226 (New Issuance), SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0077 (New Issuance), FR0078 (New Issuance), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075 (Reopening).

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah terbatas mejelang lelang SUN besok yang melelang seri yang kemungkinan menjadi seri benchmark di tahun depan, yaitu seri FR0077 dan FR0078. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.829 – Rp14.875. Yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,06% - 8,23%.

6.00

Maturities (Year) 21-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0072 96.25 8.67 5587 SIBMTR01ACN1 idA+(sy) 100.34 11.38 300

FR0063 90.99 7.99 1818 BEXI02BCN7 idAAA 100.55 7.83 200

FR0075 88.00 8.79 1183 BEXI03BCN4 idAAA 100.35 6.84 55

FR0064 87.15 8.07 1128 BIIF01ACN2 AA+(idn) 100.90 7.40 55

FR0074 92.35 8.44 993 PPGD02CCN3 idAAA 101.26 7.23 40

FR0069 100.51 6.91 902 BMRI01CN3 idAAA 100.78 8.31 38

FR0059 92.75 8.18 892 TUFI02ACN2 idAA+ 100.30 7.33 30

FR0070 101.05 8.13 790 BEXI03BCN6 idAAA 92.80 6.01 20

FR0053 100.95 7.86 717 INDF07 idAA+ 101.46 8.02 20

FR0065 85.75 8.33 658 SMFP04BCN3 idAAA 97.10 8.28 16

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 21-Sep

Indonesia (JCI) 5958 26.48 0.45% -6.26% 21-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1811 6.94 0.38% 0.77% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1756 4.01 0.23% 0.14% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Singapore (STI) 3218 37.25 1.17% -5.4% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49

Hang Seng 27954 475.91 1.73% -6.6% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76

Nikkei 225 23870 195.00 0.82% 4.85% 10-Year 3.06 3.06 2.97 2.83

Shanghai 2797 68.24 2.50% -15.41% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07

Dow Jones (DJIA) 26744 86.52 0.32% 8.19% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7490 122.91 1.67% -2.57% UK 1.55 1.58 1.53 1.28

DAX 12431 104.40 0.85% -3.8% Germany 0.46 0.47 0.45 0.34

France 0.78 0.79 0.77 0.68

FX Rate 21-Sep China 3.68 3.68 3.66 3.62

21-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10

USD/IDR 14,852 14,781 14,808 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73

GBP/USD 1.308 1.327 1.307 Thailand 2.85 2.86 2.85 2.75

USD/JPY 112.6 112.5 112.1 Malaysia 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.03

USD/SGD 1.364 1.364 1.374 Singapore 2.55 2.52 2.47 2.37

USD/THB 32.44 32.34 32.69 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.133 4.139 4.139 INDO-22 3.91 3.93 3.89 3.79

INDO-27 4.52 4.57 4.53 4.39

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.15 5.20 5.15 4.94

Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.05 0.28 0.59 Money Market 21-Sep

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.20 3.18 3.12 21-Sep (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.90 2.87 2.72 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.50 5.25 5.25 O/N 5.44 5.45 5.47 5.43

Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 117.9 118.3 119.8 1M 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70

3M 7.13 7.13 7.12 7.12

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.22 2.21 2.16 2.07

21-Sep 59.52 132.62 211.54 3M 2.37 2.37 2.34 2.32

(-1 Day) 73.59 139.66 219.76 6M 2.59 2.58 2.57 2.52

(-1 Week) 66.04 133.57 216.19 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 45.35 119.78 202.32 Deposit 1M 5.91 5.89 5.87 5.77

(-1 Year) 40.11 103.02 170.38 Lending 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.7

Benchmark 21-Sep (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 96.84 96.66 17 8.02%

FR0059 92.61 92.29 32 8.21%

FR0074 91.48 90.86 62 8.56%

FR0072 96.83 96.09 74 8.60%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of September 19, 2018 (in Trillion)

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 21-Sep-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.56

7.875%

100.53

6.87%

100.45

8.2

FR0036

15-Sep-19

0.98

11.500%

103.88

7.29%

103.88

0.1

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.15

11.000%

106.47

7.65%

106.31

16.0

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.73

12.800%

111.61

7.96%

111.52

9.7

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.82

8.250%

100.89

7.88%

100.60

29.5

FR0061

15-May-22

3.65

7.000%

96.84

8.02%

96.66

17.4

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.73

12.900%

114.90

8.17%

114.99

-9.2

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.82

10.250%

106.76

8.14%

106.77

-0.9

FR0063

15-May-23

4.65

5.625%

90.64

8.08%

90.53

11.7

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.82

9.500%

105.20

8.16%

104.97

23.0

FR0039

15-Aug-23

4.90

11.750%

114.14

8.18%

113.89

24.5

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.48

8.375%

100.66

8.22%

100.47

18.9

FR0044

15-Sep-24

5.99

10.000%

108.25

8.22%

107.86

39.2

FR0040

15-Sep-25

6.99

11.000%

114.28

8.26%

113.15

113.3

FR0037

15-Sep-26

7.99

12.000%

119.81

8.53%

119.81

0.0

FR0056

15-Sep-26

7.99

8.375%

100.88

8.22%

100.69

19.0

FR0059

15-May-27

8.65

7.000%

92.61

8.21%

92.29

32.3

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.82

10.250%

111.63

8.35%

111.63

0.0

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.41

10.000%

108.79

8.62%

108.79

0.0

FR0064

15-May-28

9.65

6.125%

86.83

8.12%

86.45

38.1

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.49

9.000%

103.82

8.44%

103.42

39.2

FR0052

15-Aug-30

11.91

10.500%

112.94

8.73%

112.94

0.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.65

8.750%

102.35

8.44%

102.35

0.0

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.82

9.500%

106.59

8.64%

106.59

0.0

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.74

8.250%

96.74

8.66%

96.74

0.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

13.91

7.500%

91.48

8.56%

90.86

61.9

FR0065

15-May-33

14.66

6.625%

84.93

8.44%

84.73

20.6

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.49

8.375%

97.37

8.69%

97.37

0.0

FR0072

15-May-36

17.66

8.250%

96.83

8.60%

96.09

73.8

FR0045

15-May-37

18.66

9.750%

106.61

9.01%

106.614

0.0

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

89.55

8.61%

88.25

130.9

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.83

10.500%

111.50

9.22%

111.50

0.0

FR0057

15-May-41

22.66

9.500%

108.80

8.61%

108.80

0.0

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.58

6.375%

85.02

7.77%

85.02

0.0

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.83

8.750%

97.59

8.99%

97.59

0.0

FR0076

15-May-48

29.67

7.375%

82.80

9.20%

82.58

21.8

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (September 24 - September 28 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018) INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

27 7-Days Repo Rate - - 5.50% 5.50%

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

24 Ifo Business Climate Germany Sep-18 - 103.8 104.0

26 New Home Sales US Aug-18 - -1.7% 0.2%

26 Crude Oil Inventory US Sep 21 - 2018 Week Ended, - -2.06 million barrel -0.48 million barrel

27 Fed Funds Rate US - - 2.00% 2.25%

27 Economic Growth Final (QoQ) US Quarter-II - 2.2% 4.2%

27 Durable Goods Order (MoM) US Aug-18 - -1.70% 0.97%

27 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 15-2018 - 1645 thousand 1693 thousand

28 Unemployment Rate Japan Aug-18 - 2.5% 2.4%

28 Unemployment Rate Germany Sep-18 - 5.2% 5.1%

28 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.3%

27 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 22-2018 - 201 thousand 208 thousand

27 Business Confidence Euro Area Sep-18 - 1.22 1.15

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This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights

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