ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Sikap hati-hati investor picu pergerakan pasar saham yang beragam pada hari Selasa dengan yen menguat jelang sidang bank sentral AS dan Jepang. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,7% dan catat level tertinggi hampir 1 tahun, didukung oleh naiknya saham Cina dan Korea Selatan. Sedangkan Nikkei kurang beruntung setelah mencatat turun 1,5% karena investor tampaknya tidak terkesan oleh laporan Nikkei dimana pemerintah merencanakan stimulus fiskal langsung sekitar 6 triliun yen ($ 56 milyar) selama beberapa tahun ke depan. Kalangan dealer masih ragu BOJ akan menawarkan stimulus baru pada sidangnya Jumat mendatang. Pasar juga memprediksi The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunganya pada sidangnya nanti malam, namun rilis optimis data ekonomi AS belakangan ini memberikan peluang untuk dilakukan kenaikan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini. Fed fund futures memberikan peluang 56% untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, naik dari 48% peluangnya di hari Jumat sebelumnya.

 Eropa: Naiknya saham kesehatan dan consumer goods telah berhasil angkat saham Eropa pada hari Selasa, meskipun ada tekanan dari keprihatinan terhadap sistem perbankan kawasan. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup naik 0,1%, sementara indeks FTSEurofirst 300 menguat 0,2%. Rendahnya suku bunga Eropa telah memberi keuntungan pada perusahaan consumer goods berkat meningkatnya minat belanja konsumen. Bursa Inggris juga ditutup naik didukung oleh naiknya saham GKN (perusahaan engineering) dan BT Group (perusahaan telekomunikasi). Indeks FTSE 100 berakhir menguat 0,2% di level 6724,03. Indeks tercatat naik 16% sejak kejatuhannya pasca Brexit.

 AS & Global Markets: Melonjaknya yen dan turunnya harga minyak ke level terendah 3 bulan telah membuat bursa saham tetap bertahan pada hari Selasa menyusul investor menantikan hasil sidang bank sentral pekan ini yang boleh jadi akan menghasilkan stimulus baru di Jepang dan memberikan isyarat untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS. Bursa AS ditutup beragam. Yen tembus level tertinggi 2 pekan terhadap euro dan tertinggi lebih dari sepekan terhadap dolar. Sebagian besar ekonom memprediksi BOJ akan mengekspansi pembelian asetnya dan memangkas lebih dalam suku bunganya di bawah 0%. Namun harapan ekonom ini bisa jadi pupus menyusul komentar menteri keuangan Taro Aso yang kurang mendukung langkah BOJ. Sementara itu The Fed diprediksi akan tahan suku bunganya di kisaran 0,25-0,50 persen karena resiko global, meskipun sejumlah data (consumer confidence Juli yang stabil dan sales of new single-family homes Juni yang catat level tertinggi hampir 8-1/2 tahun) mendukung indikasi berlanjutnya momentum ekonomi dalam negeri. Selain sidang The Fed, data Data PDB-Q2 AS (Jumat) juga akan dicermati yang diprediksi akan menunjukkan akselerasi menjadi 2,6% dari 1,1% (Q1).

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

252.76 (26/Jul/16)

22300.51 (26/Jul/16)

18622.01 (20/Jul/16)

2175.63 (20/Jul/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 26 Juli 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 18473.75  19.31/ 0.10% .N225 16383.04  237.25/1.43%

/.SPX 2169.18  0.70 / 0.03% .KS200 252.72  2.07/0.83%

/.IXIC 5110.047  12.419 / 0.24% .HSI 22129.73  136.29/0.62%

JPY= 104.64  1.12 / 1.06% /.SSEC 3050.17900  34.35120/1.14%

KRW= 1136.39  4.70 / 0.41% /CLc1 (Oil) 42.64  0.49 / 1.14%

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RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

MON/25-Jul 06:50 JP Exports YY Jun -7.4 -11.6 % -11.3

06:50 JP Imports YY Jun -18.8 -19.7 % -13.8

06:50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen Jun 692.8 494.8 B -40.7

21:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Jul -1.3 N/A IND -18.30

TUE/26-Jul 06:00 KR GDP Growth QQ Q2 0.7 0.7 % 0.5

06:00 KR GDP Growth YY Q2 3.2 2.9 % 2.8

15.30 HK Imports Jun -0.9 N/A % -4.3

15.30 HK Exports Jun -1.0 N/A % -0.1

20:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM SA May -0.1 0.1 % 0.5 -0.2

20:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA May 0.9 1.1 % 1.1

20:00 US CaseShiller 20 YY May 5.2 5.5 % 5.4

20:45 US Markit Comp Flash PMI Jul 51.5 N/A IND 51.20

20:45 US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Jul 50.9 52.0 IND 51.4

21:00 US Consumer Confidence Jul 97.3 95.9 IND 98.0 97.4

21:00 US New Home Sales-Units Jun 0.592 0.560 M 0.551 0.572

21:00 US New Home Sales Chg MM Jun 3.5 1.6 % 6.0 0

21:00 US Rich Fed Comp. Index Jul 10 -4 IND -7

21:00 US Rich Fed, Services Index Jul 8 N/A IND 0 2

21:00 US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Jul 7 N/A IND -3

21:30 US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Jul -1.3 N/A IND -7.7

21:30 US Dallas Fed Services Reve Jul 10.3 N/A IND 15.6

WED/27-Jul 04:00 KR Consumer Sentiment Ind Jul 101 N/A IND 99

08:30 AU CPI QQ Q2 0.4 % -0.2

08:30 AU CPI YY Q2 1.1 % 1.3

08:30 AU CPI Index Number Q2 N/A IND 108.2

18:30 US Build Permits R Numb MM Jun N/A M 1.153

18:30 US Build Permits R Chg MM Jun N/A % 1.5

19:30 US Durable Goods Jun -1.1 % -2.3

19:30 US Durables Ex-Transport Jun 0.3 % -0.3

21:00 US Pending Homes Index Jun N/A % 110.8

21:00 US Pending Sales Change MM Jun 1.4 % -3.7

21:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stock -2.450 M -2.342

01.00 US FOMC meeting and statement release N/A 0.375 % 0.375

THU/28-Jul 08:30 AU Export Prices Q2 N/A % -4.7

08:30 AU Import Prices Q2 1.6 % -3.0

19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 260 K 253

19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A K 257.75

19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.130 M 2.128

19:30 US Adv Goods Trade Balance Jun 61.0 B -60.59

22:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Jul N/A IND 12

22:00 US KC Fed Composite Index Jul N/A IND 2

FRI/29-Jul Tentative JP BOJ Base Money Target 85.00 T 80.00

Tentative JP BOJ Rate Decision -0.20 % -0.10

04:00 KR BOK Manufacturing BSI Aug N/A IND 72

06:00 KR Industrial Output YY Jun N/A % 4.3

06:00 KR Service Sector Output Gr Jun N/A % 0.1

06:00 KR Industrial Output Growth Jun N/A % 2.5

06:30 JP All Household Spending Y Jun -0.3 % -1.1

06:30 JP All Household Spending M Jun 0.4 % -1.5

06:30 JP CPI, Core Nationwide YY Jun -0.4 % -0.4

06:30 JP CPI, Overall Nationwide Jun N/A % -0.4

06:30 JP CPI Core Tokyo YY Jun -0.5 % -0.5

06:30 JP CPI, Overall Tokyo Jun N/A % -0.5

06:30 JP Jobs/Applicants Ratio Jun 1.37 1.36

06:30 JP Unemployment Rate Jun 3.2 % 3.2

06:50 JP Retail Sales YY Jun -1.5 % -1.9

28~29Jul 06:50 JP Industrial Output Prelim Jun 0.7 % -2.6

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(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)

28~29Jul 06:50 JP IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Jun N/A % 1.7

28~29Jul 06:50 JP IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Jun N/A % 1.3

08:30 AU PPI QQ Q2 0.2 % -0.2

08:30 AU PPI YY Q2 N/A % 1.2

08:30 AU Private Sector Credit Jun 0.5 % 0.4

08:30 AU Housing Credit Jun N/A % 0.5

12:00 JP Construction Orders YY Jun N/A % 34.5

12:00 JP Housing Starts YY Jun -3.0 % 9.8

15:30 HK Money Supply M3 Jun N/A % 1.40

19:30 US GDP Advance Q2 2.6 % 1.1

19:30 US GDP Sales Advance Q2 3.2 % 1.3

19:30 US GDP Cons Spending Advance Q2 N/A % 1.5

19:30 US GDP Deflator Advance Q2 1.8 % 0.4

19:30 US Core PCE Prices Advance Q2 1.7 % 2.0

19:30 US PCE Prices Advance Q2 2.0 % 0.2

19:30 US Employment Wages QQ Q2 N/A % 0.7

19:30 US Employment Benefits QQ Q2 N/A % 0.5

19:30 US Employment Costs Q2 0.6 % 0.6

20:45 US Chicago PMI Jul 54.0 IND 56.8 21:00 US U Mich Sentiment Final Jul 90.5 IND 89.5 21:00 US U Mich Conditions Final Jul 109.0 IND 108.7 21:00 US U Mich Expectations Final Jul 79.5 IND 77.1

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SSIamU6 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Sep. 2016

 Koreksi sedang tes area 16200

 Target downtick di 16180 - 16000

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

26 July SSIpmU6 16325 16450 16235 215 16385 ---  65 0.40 18858

26 July SSIamU6 16570 16570 16295 275 16320 16320  295 1.78 66866

25 July SSIpmU6 16645 16670 16520 150 16550 ---  65 0.39 11505

25 July SSIamU6 16650 16765 16590 175 16615 16615  30 0.18 40093

22 July SSIpmU6 16620 16690 16580 110 16615 ---  30 0.18 17787

22 July SSIamU6 16565 16675 16540 135 16645 16645  185 1.10 43121

21 July SSIpmU6 16775 16815 16445 370 16555 ---  275 1.63 41245

21 July SSIamU6 16820 16930 16720 210 16830 16830  140 0.84 48787

20 July SSIpmU6 16650 16850 16650 200 16850 ---  160 0.96 21472

20 July SSIamU6 16605 16690 16530 160 16690 16690  35 0.21 38837

WEEKLY JULY JUNE 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

16765 16235 16930 15105 17155 14790 18945 14770

(25/July) (26/July) (21/July) (08/July) (01/June) (24/June) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

16835 Reaction high (1-H chart)

16765 Reaction high (1-H chart)

16690 Pivot line (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

16180 Reaction low (1-H chart)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 16460

STOP LOSS 16550

TARGET 16100

16000

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KSU6 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Sep. 2016

 Rebound breakout trendline resistance dan mendekati area resistance di 254.30

 RSI di zona overbought

 Short-term support di sekitar 250.30

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

26 July 250.70 253.30 250.35 2.95 253.30 253.30  2.45 0.98 107443

25 July 251.35 251.95 250.25 1.70 250.85 250.85  0.10 0.04 101070

22 July 249.75 251.15 249.10 2.05 250.75 250.75  0.15 0.06 79987

21 July 251.70 251.85 250.40 1.45 250.90 250.90 UNCH UNCH 72703

20 July 251.00 251.05 249.25 1.80 250.90 250.90  0.10 0.04 96743

19 July 251.90 251.95 250.40 1.55 251.00 251.00  0.65 0.26 84427

WEEKLY JULY JUNE 2016

253.30 250.25 253.30 241.35 251.65 235.65 253.30 223.10

(26/July) (25/July) (26/July) (06/July) (09/June) (24/June) (26/July) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

259.70 High 02/Jun/2015

257.40 High 03/Jun/2015

256.35 High 02/Jul/2015 (Peak)

254.30 High 04/Nov/2015 (Peak)

SUPPORT

251.50 Trendline support

250.35 Low 26/Jul/2016

249.10 Low 22/Jul/2016

248.35 Low 13/Jul/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 252.15

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 251.15

TARGET 253.90

255.70

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HSIN6 (Hang Seng July Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 July 2016

 Rebound tembus area 22300 dengan kondisi RSI sudah overbought

 Area support di sekitar 21855 masih efektif

 Target uptick disekitar 22500

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

26 July 21888 22321 21868 453 22108 22108  55 0.25 183333

25 July 22111 22113 21904 209 22053 22050  61 0.28 120216

22 July 21931 21999 21859 140 21992 21992  11 0.05 89105

21 July 21935 22138 21906 232 22003 22003  113 0.52 104036

20 July 21650 21928 21626 302 21890 21890  225 1.04 99666

19 July 21742 21757 21635 119 21665 21665  95 0.44 100408

18 July 21663 21855 21640 215 21760 21760  29 0.13 120059

WEEKLY JULY JUNE 2016

22321 21868 22321 20278 21157 19564 22321 18217

(26/July) (26/July) (26/July) (06/July) (08/June) (24/June) (26/July) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

23055 High 26/Nov/2015 (Reaction high)

22658 High 27/Nov/2015

22576 High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

22321 High 26/Jul/2016

SUPPORT

21625 Low 20/Jul/2016 (Reaction low)

21530 Low 15/Jul/2016

21259 Low 14/Jul/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 21950

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 21825

TARGET 22220

22450