Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 At Tuesday, August 07, US 10-year treasury yield rose to 2.97% after asset shifting toward stock market. Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move upward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that rose to 1.32% and 0.41% respectively.

 Yield US Treasury pada hari Selasa, 07 Agustus 2018

ditutup naik ke level 2,97% akibat adanya kecenderungan perpindahan aset investor ke pasar

saham akibat adanya kenaikan secara umum di pasar saham AS. Senada dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup naik ke level 1,32% dan 0,41%. exchange reserves which have been decreasing 6 month in a row is a signal for government to im-plement policy related to foreign exchange reserves.

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of higher US 10-years treasury yield. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,429—14,463 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.74% - 7.77%.

 Posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia pada bulan Juli kembali mengalami penurunan sebesar US$ 1,5 miliar menjadi US$ 118,3 miliar. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh intervensi Bank Indonesia untuk stabilisasi nilai Rupiah pada Bulan Juli. Posisi cadangan devisa saat ini menurut Bank Indonesia (BI), masih setara dengan 6,7 bulan pembiayaan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri Indonesia, di atas standar kecukupan internasional, 3 bulan impor. Meskipun demikian, penurunan ini merupakan penurunan yang keenam kalinya secara berturut-turut sejak Februari 2018, dan ini merupakan sinyal penting bagi pemerintah Indonesia untuk melakukan intervensi kebijakan terkait cadangan devisa.

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat naiknya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.429 – Rp14.463 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,74% -

Maturities (Year) 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0074 94.80 7.08 1663 BFIN04BCN1 AA-(idn) 100.00 6.42 480 FR0063 92.30 7.58 1337 BEXI04ACN1 idAAA 99.00 7.90 90 PBS016 98.11 7.52 1272 BNII02ACN1 idAAA 98.75 8.38 90 FR0065 87.60 8.08 973 MYOR01CN3 idAA 95.95 7.53 49 FR0064 89.40 7.69 903 BPFI02CN1 idBBB 100.00 8.06 40 FR0061 98.37 5.00 767 BNGA02SB AA(idn) 104.75 7.72 27 FR0070 102.49 7.81 717 BEXI03ACN6 idAAA 96.00 8.12 25 FR0072 100.35 8.21 644 MDLN01BCN1 idA 102.35 8.91 25 FR0075 94.75 8.03 507 PNMP02BCN1 idA 100.55 7.44 21 FR0071 107.25 7.97 493 AKRA01B idAA- 100.95 6.84 20

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 7-Aug

Indonesia (JCI) 6091 -9.88 -0.16% -4.16% 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1791 11.34 0.64% -0.32% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1707 11.02 0.65% -2.65% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3340 54.66 1.66% -1.8% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28249 429.32 1.54% -5.6% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22663 155.42 0.69% -0.45% 10-Year 2.97 2.94 2.96 2.85 Shanghai 2779 74.22 2.74% -15.96% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25629 126.73 0.50% 3.68% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7718 54.70 0.71% 0.40% UK 1.32 1.30 1.33 1.30 DAX 12648 49.98 0.40% -2.1% Germany 0.41 0.39 0.44 0.32

France 0.73 0.71 0.73 0.65

FX Rate 7-Aug China 3.49 3.46 3.48 3.54

7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.11 0.10 0.06 0.04

USD/IDR 14,429 14,486 14,407 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.294 1.294 1.313 Thailand 2.74 2.74 2.71 2.59 USD/JPY 111.4 111.4 111.9 Malaysia 4.02 4.03 4.07 4.08 USD/SGD 1.364 1.368 1.362 Singapore 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.44 USD/THB 33.22 33.35 33.20 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.076 4.082 4.045 INDO-22 3.75 3.76 3.73 3.90 INDO-27 4.34 4.36 4.29 4.47

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.94 4.97 4.94 5.17

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 7-Aug

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 7-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.04 5.01 5.00 4.94 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.40 6.40 6.45 7.19

3M 7.01 7.01 7.09 7.35

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07

7-Aug 39.30 110.97 191.12 3M 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.34

(-1 Day) 40.60 114.65 196.08 6M 2.52 2.52 2.53 2.51 (-1 Week) 42.09 111.78 190.61 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 47.44 123.54 207.20 Deposit 1M 5.75 5.75 5.74 5.74 (-1 Year) 44.00 108.95 182.05 Lending 13.8 13.6 13.7 14.1

Benchmark 7-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 98.35 98.18 17 7.51% FR0059 94.69 94.69 1 7.85% FR0074 94.34 94.11 23 8.19% FR0072 100.15 99.72 43 8.23%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 06, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1-Aug-18 2-Aug-18 3-Aug-18 6-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 578.33 588.90 597.38 594.28

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 100.99 103.45 92.99 95.31

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.0 113.5 113.3 113.3

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 189.8 190.1 190.0 190.1

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 839.29 844.99 847.14 847.71

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.08 209.46 209.48 209.53

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.39 63.44 63.47 63.51

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.17 132.21 132.25 132.31

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 7-Aug-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0038

15-Aug-18

0.02

11.600%

100.27

-4.32%

100.30

-2.7

FR0048

15-Sep-18

0.11

9.000%

100.57

3.17%

100.57

0.7

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.69

7.875%

100.98

6.37%

100.96

1.8

FR0036

15-Sep-19

1.11

11.500%

105.17

6.54%

105.15

1.8

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.28

11.000%

108.07

7.07%

107.92

14.9

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.86

12.800%

114.02

7.26%

114.06

-4.2

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.94

8.250%

102.44

7.31%

102.40

3.9

FR0061

15-May-22

3.77

7.000%

98.35

7.51%

98.18

16.9

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.86

12.900%

117.20

7.65%

117.05

14.3

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.94

10.250%

108.71

7.64%

108.52

18.9

FR0063

15-May-23

4.77

5.625%

92.17

7.61%

92.10

7.0

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.94

9.500%

107.00

7.76%

107.00

0.0

FR0039

15-Aug-23

5.02

11.750%

116.20

7.79%

116.11

8.6

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.61

8.375%

102.47

7.82%

102.97

-49.6

FR0044

15-Sep-24

6.11

10.000%

110.20

7.86%

110.18

2.0

FR0040

15-Sep-25

7.11

11.000%

116.64

7.89%

116.58

6.1

FR0037

15-Sep-26

8.11

12.000%

124.40

7.87%

124.26

14.3

FR0056

15-Sep-26

8.11

8.375%

103.03

7.86%

102.97

5.4

FR0059

15-May-27

8.78

7.000%

94.69

7.85%

94.69

0.5

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.94

10.250%

114.66

7.93%

114.45

21.3

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.53

10.000%

113.41

7.96%

113.06

34.4

FR0064

15-May-28

9.78

6.125%

89.06

7.74%

88.97

9.4

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.61

9.000%

107.04

8.00%

106.90

13.6

FR0052

15-Aug-30

12.03

10.500%

118.00

8.13%

118.00

0.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.78

8.750%

104.43

8.18%

104.41

2.3

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.95

9.500%

110.61

8.16%

110.39

21.9

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.87

8.250%

101.25

8.10%

100.00

125.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

14.03

7.500%

94.34

8.19%

94.11

22.6

FR0065

15-May-33

14.78

6.625%

87.54

8.08%

87.29

24.1

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.61

8.375%

101.40

8.21%

100.88

51.9

FR0072

15-May-36

17.78

8.250%

100.15

8.23%

99.72

43.1

FR0045

15-May-37

18.78

9.750%

113.65

8.30%

113.649

0.0

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

93.81

8.13%

93.62

19.0

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.95

10.500%

119.75

8.44%

119.90

-15.0

FR0057

15-May-41

22.79

9.500%

110.02

8.50%

110.08

-6.3

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.70

6.375%

78.83

8.46%

78.83

0.0

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.95

8.750%

103.02

8.46%

103.02

0.0

FR0076

15-May-48

29.79

7.375%

88.62

8.49%

88.54

8.4

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 06 - August 10 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

06 Economic Growth Rate (QoQ) Quarter-II 4.21% -0.42% 2.02%

06 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Quarter-II 5.27% 5.06% 5.10%

06 Consumer Confidence Jul-18 124.8 128.1 128

07 Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul-18 USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion

10 Current Account Quarter-II - USD -5.5 billion USD -5.6 billion

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

07 Balance of Trade Germany Jun-18 EUR 21.8 billion EUR 19.7 billion EUR 24.5 billion

08 Balance of Trade China Jul-18 - USD 41.61 billion USD 26 billion

08 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 03 - 2018 Week Ended, - 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel

09 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Jul-18 - 1.9% 2.1%

09 10-Year Note Auction US - - 2.86% -

09 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) US Jun-18 - 0.4% 0%

09 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 218 thousand 217 thousand

09 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 - 1724 thousand 1736 thousand

10 Econ. Growth Annualized Prelim. Japan Quarter-II - -0.6% 0.9%

10 Econ. Growth Prelim. (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.4%

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PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

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DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights

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Debt Sales

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Debt Sales

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Debt Sales

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