All is Silent, but the Opportunity Knocks
APRIL 2014
Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P BB+ Moody’s Baa3 FitchBBB-Key Market Indicators as of 21 April 2014
BI Rate 7.50%
JCI 4.892
IDR 11,446
Inflation (YoY) 7.75%
Inflation (MoM) 0.26%
Domestic Bonds Outstanding
Gov’t Bonds as of 17 Apr 14 IDR 1,088.8 tn Corp Bonds as of Mar 14 IDR 219.29 tn
Trading Volume in March 2014
Government Bonds IDR254.14 tn Corporate Bonds IDR 13.28 tn
Benchmark Yields as of 21 Apr 2014
FR0069 (5 year) 7.513% FR0070 (10 year) 7.905% FR0071 (15 year) 8.243% FR0068 (20 year) 8.419% Source: Bloomberg Mid YTM
Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3405 amirda@danareksa.com Ayesha Ardelia (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3406 ayesha@danareksa.com Rifki Rizal (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
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Sources: IDX & Pefindo
Mar 2014 Calendar 18 19 10 11 12 13 28 20 21 24 25 26 7 3 4 5 6 17 BFIN02ACN1, BFIN02BCN1, BFIN02CCN1: New Issuance FIFA01ACN3, FIFA01BCN3: New Issuance VRNA01ACN3, VRNA01ACN3: New Issuance SMFP02ACN3, SMFP02BCN3: New Issuance BCAF01ACN3, BCAF01BCN3: New Issuance NISP01ACN1 : Matured BFIN01ACN2 : Matured WOMF05C: Matured ASDF01ACN3: Matured ADMF02ACN1, SMADMF01ACN1: Matured ASDF01ACN3, VRNA01C : Matured BCAF03D :
Matured SMFP02ACN2 : Matured
Rating : PPSR
idAA- idA+ Rating : SDRA idBBB+
idA-Rating : SDRA Subordinated idBBB idBBB+ Rating : BSMT stable negative Rating : BDKI idA idA+ Rating : BDKI idAA idAA+
Spread yang lebih tinggi di atas yield US Treasury
Setelah pengumuman QE Tapering di 1H13, yield UST meningkat seiring investor beralih ke instrumen yang lebih agresif. Hal ini mengakibatkan meningkatnya volatilitas di beberapa Negara Emerging Market. Seperti terlihat di Exhibit 1, yield 10-tahun dari obligasi Pemerintah bergerak secara berbeda. Untuk yield obligasi Pemerintah Malaysia bertenor 10-tahun cenderung bergerak searah dengan yield US Treasury dengan tenor yang sama. Sementara yield obligasi Pemerintah Filipina bertenor 10-tahun justru mengalami penurunan, seiring dengan ditingkatkannya sovereign rating Filipina menjadi BBB- di bulan May 2013. Periode berikutnya, yield kembali meningkat tipis mengikuti kenaikan yield US Treasury. Sedangkan untuk yield obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia bertenor 10-tahun mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan akibat tekanan inflasi yang disebabkan kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi. Seiring dengan kenaikan laju inflasi dan current account deficit yang semakin melebar, Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk menaikkan BI Rate. Selama tahun 2013, Bank Indonesia telah menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuan sebesar 175 basis poin menjadi 7,50% pada akhir tahun.
Relatively Higher Spread over US Treasuries Yield
After the announcement of QE Tapering in 1H13, UST yields rose as investors switched to more aggressive instruments. This subsequently led to increased volatility in several emerging market countries. As can be seen in Exhibit 1, 10-year Government bond yields in select countries reacted differently. For instance, the 10-year Malaysian local currency government bond yield rose in line with the increase in the 10-year US Treasury yield. By contrast, however, the Philippines 10-year LC Government bonds yield declined as S&P upgraded the country’s sovereign rating to BBB- in May 2013. Later, the yield increased slightly to reflect the increase in the US Treasury yield. As for the Indonesian 10-year Government bonds yield, it surged on the back of heightened inflationary pressures arising from the Government’s decision to hike subsidized fuel prices. As inflation soared and the current account deficit widened, Bank Indonesia decided to increase the BI Rate. In 2013, the central bank raised its reference rate by 175 basis points in total to 7.50% at the end of the year.
Exhibit 1. Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yield
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4
Indonesia 10Y Malaysia 10Y Philippines 10Y US 10Y
Source : Bloomberg & Danareksa Estimate
Term to Maturity (year) 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 0 2 4 6 8 10
US Indonesia Philippines Malaysia
Source : Bloomberg & Danareksa Estimate
Pada kuartal pertama tahun 2014, yield obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia bertenor 10-tahun mulai mengalami penurunan seiring dengan meredanya tekanan inflasi dan membaiknya current account deficit. Dengan kondisi makroekonomi yang lebih kondusif, ekspektasi kenaikan tingkat suku bunga acuan selama tahun 2014 diperkirakan akan mereda. Inflasi tahunan diperkirakan akan turun ke kisaran 5%-6% pada akhir semester pertama 2014 seiring meredanya efek kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi. Pada bulan Maret 2014, laju inflasi tahunan turun ke level 7,32% dari 8,08% pada akhir tahun 2013. Yield obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia juga mengalami penurunan, di mana yield SUN 10-tahun turun mencapai 8,20% per 28 Maret 2014 dari 8,68% di akhir tahun 2013.
In the first quarter of 2014, the Indonesian 10-year Government bonds yield started to decline as inflationary pressures eased and the current account improved. This rosier macro picture has lessened expectations of another hike in the reference rate. YoY inflation is expected to decline to between 5%-6% at the end of 1H14 as the impact from the increase in subsidized fuel prices will no longer be seen. In March 2014, YoY inflation declined to 7.32% from 8.08% at the end of 2013. Bond yields have also fallen. The 10-year Government bonds yield dropped to 8.20% as of 28 March 2014 from 8.68% at the end of 2013.
Exhibit 3. Indonesia’s Inflation and Reference Rate -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 D ec-10 M ar -1 1 Ju n-1 1 Se p-1 1 D ec-11 M ar -1 2 Ju n-1 2 Se p-1 2 D ec-12 M ar -1 3 Ju n-1 3 Se p-1 3 D ec-13 M ar -1 4
MoM Inflation (LHS) YoY Inflation BI Rate JIBOR 3Mo
Source : Bloomberg
Nilai tukar yang lebih kuat dan partisipasi investor asing yang meningkat
Dari sisi nilai tukar, pelemahan Rupiah terhadap dolar AS telah dimulai sejak September 2011. Pelemahan yang signifikan terjadi pada 2Q13 ketika terjadi net sell dari investor asing, seperti terlihat pada Exhibit 5. Namun, terlepas dari depresiasi Rupiah, kepemilikan investor asing atas Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dalam denominasi Rupiah yang dapat diperdagangkan justru meningkat. Bahkan nilai kepemilikan saham investor asing secara proporsi kembali meningkat selama kuartal tiga dari 55% pada akhir Agustus 2013 menjadi 62,9% pada akhir tahun 2013.
A Stronger Currency and Greater Foreign Investor Participation
On the currency front, the rupiah started to weaken relative to the USD in September 2011. Significant depreciation was seen in 2Q13 when foreign investors dumped stocks. This resulted in foreign net selling (as can be seen in Exhibit 5. However, despite the weakening of the rupiah, foreign ownership in Indonesia’s IDR Tradable government securities continued to increase during the year. Indeed, the proportion of stocks held by foreign investors increased from around 55% in August 2013 to 62.9% at the end of 2013.
Exhibit 4. Exchange Rate Level and Volatility
-25.00 -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4
Foreign Net (IDR trillion) (LHS) JCI Source : Bloomberg & Danareksa Estimate
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 8,250 8,750 9,250 9,750 10,250 10,750 11,250 11,750 12,250 12,750 D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4
Coefficient of Variation (LHS) USDIDR
Source : Bloomberg
Selama kuartal pertama tahun 2014, Rupiah mengalami apresiasi sebesar 7% terhadap dolar AS dan menguat hingga ke level Rp11.361 per Dolar AS. Investor asing telah menambah kepemilikan mereka atas SBN sebesar Rp37,26 triliun menjadi Rp360,91 triliun atau 33,64% dari total outstanding. Sedangkan dari pasar saham, kepemilikan asing meningkat ke Rp1.645,52 triliun per Maret 2014, naik 11,5% dari posisi di akhir tahun 2013.
In the first quarter of 2014, the rupiah appreciated by 7% relative to the USD to IDR11,361 per USD. Foreign investors purchased an additional IDR37.26 trillion of IDR Government securities which increased their holdings to IDR360.91 trillion or 33.64% of the total amount outstanding. In the stock market, foreign holdings continued to increase. They rose to IDR1,645.52 trillion as of March 2014, an 11.5% increase over the position at the end of 2013.
Exhibit 6. Foreign Ownership in IDR Tradable SBN
28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4
Foreign Investors Domestic Investors Foreign Proportion (LHS)
Source : Ministry of Finance - DMO
IDR billion 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 D ec-12 Ja n -1 3 Fe b -1 3 M ar -1 3 Ap r-13 Ma y-13 Ju n -1 3 Ju l-13 A u g -1 3 Se p -1 3 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec-13 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M ar -1 4
Foreign Investors Local Investors Foreign Proportion (LHS)
Source : KSEI
Strategi Front-Loading untuk Penerbitan Obligasi Pemerintah
Dalam tiga bulan pertama tahun 2014, Pemerintah Indonesia telah menerbitkan Rp177 triliun SBN atau hampir tiga kali jumlah penerbitan pada periode yang sama di tahun sebelumnya. Hanya dalam satu kuartal, Pemerintah telah mencapai hampir 50% dari target penerbitan di tahun 2014. Penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah didominasi oleh seri FR yang mencapai Rp63 triliun atau 36% dari total penerbitan. Penerbitan USD Global Bond di awal tahun juga turut berkontribusi signifikan, mencapai 27% dari total penerbitan. Sedangkan untuk penerbitan SBSN, kontribusi terbesar berasal dari penerbitan seri ritel SR006 yang mencapai Rp19,3 triliun. Sementara untuk pasar obligasi korporasi, penerbitan justru mengalami penurunan yang signifikan. Salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan turunnya penerbitan obligasi korporasi adalah yield obligasi Pemerintah yang masih jauh lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan kuartal yang sama pada tahun 2013. Penerbitan obligasi korporasi didominasi oleh sector multifinance (berkontribusi 68,46% dari nilai penerbitan 1Q14). Untuk pertama kalinya sejak tahun 2009, nilai obligasi korporasi yang jatuh tempo dalam satu kuartal lebih besar dari nilai penerbitan obligasi baru.
Front-Loading Strategy for Government Bond Issuances
In the first three months of 2014, the Government of Indonesia issued IDR177 trillion of government debt securities, or almost three times the amount issued during the same period in the previous year. In only one quarter, the Government has achieved almost 50% of the targeted issuance in 2014. The issuance of Government debt securities was dominated by the Coupon GDS (FR series), reaching IDR63 trillion or accounting for 36% of the total issuance. The USD Global Bonds issued earlier this year were also significant, accounting for 27% of the total issuance. For the Government Islamic Debt Securities, half of the issuance came from the issuance of the SR006 retail series, reaching IDR19.3 trillion. For corporate bonds, meanwhile, total issuances declined significantly, reflecting the fact that the Government bonds yield – which was used as the benchmark - was higher than in the same period of 2013. Most of the corporate bond issuances were in the multifinance sector (this sector accounted for 68.46% of the total corporate bond issuances). For the first time since 2009, the amount of maturing corporate bonds in one quarter surpassed the new issuances.
IDR billion
Exhibit 8. Government and Corporate Bonds Issuance
Source : IDX, MoF - DMO, Danareksa Estimate
In IDR Trillion 2011 2012 2013 2014F 3M13 3M14
Government Securities
Total Outstanding (eqv. in IDR tn)* 943.02 1,120.96 1,426.19 1,631.25 1,126.00 1,481.00
Growth (%) 19% 27% 14%
New Issuances 193.60 252.42 322.72 370.36 68.98 177.01
Mature & Buyback (83.55) (93.48) (99.98) (165.29) (28.93) (59.32)
Corporate Bonds
Total Outstanding 148.18 186.49 207.93 217.95 196.12 206.92
Growth (%) 26% 11% 5%
New Issuances 45.23 69.29 52.03 51.04 14.92 5.2
Mature & Buyback (12.29) (30.97) (30.60) (41.01) (5.30) (6.24)
Net Issuance
Government Securities 110.05 158.94 222.74 205.07 40.05 117.69 Corporate Bond 32.94 38.32 21.43 10.02 9.62 (1.01)
Exhibit 9. Government Bond Issuance by Series
Coupon GDS 36% Conventional Tbills 8% SPNNT 20140303 7% USD Global Bonds 27% USD Domestic Bonds 2% Gov't Islamic Debt Securities 20%
Source : MoF - DMO
Financial Company 68.46% Telecommuni cation 19.11% Retail 12.42% Source : KSEI
Outlook hingga akhir tahun 2014
Pemilihan presiden yang akan dilakukan pada semester kedua tahun 2014 tidak akan memberikan efek yang berpengaruh signifikan secara langsung terhadap sentimen di pasar obligasi. Namun yang perlu diperhatikan adalah peningkatan defisit APBN yang disebabkan oleh penurunan pendapatan pajak (akibat perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi) serta peningkatan beban subsidi (akibat nilai tukar yang lebih lemah dari asumsi). Defisit APBN yang lebih tinggi dapat menyebabkan Pemerintah menerbitkan lebih banyak SBN. Walau hampir 50% dari target penerbitan telah tercapai di kuartal pertama, penambahan signifikan dari supply SBN dapat menyebabkan kenaikan required yield dari investor. Dengan kondisi pasar modal secara umum masih cukup baik seiring pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang semakin jelas, pasar obligasi domestik Indonesia akan lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan kondisi dalam negeri di tahun 2014.
Outlook up to the end of 2014
The presidential elections in 2H14 are unlikely to have a significant and direct effect on bond market sentiment. Of more concern is the government’s budget deficit which is expected to increase due to lower tax income (because of slower economic growth) and increasing fuel subsidies (because of the weaker-than-assumed currency). A higher budget deficit might prompt the government to issue more government securities. Although almost 50% of the 2014 target was achieved in the first quarter, a significant increase in issuances of Government securities might result in investors demanding higher yields. Nonetheless, since global conditions are improving with the US economic recovery taking hold, Indonesia’s domestic bonds market is more likely to be influenced by domestic developments in 2014.
* Excluding Non Tradeable Govt. Securities
Exhibit 11. Macroeconomic Assumption
Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
Variables 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 EoY 2014F
Base Optimistic Pessimistic
USDIDR (EoP) 9,243 9,826 12,283 11,361 11,500 10,500 13,000
Inflation (YoY) 3.79 4.50 8.08 7.32 5.68 4.95 6.09
BI Rate 6.00 5.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 8.00
10Y SUN Yield Curve 6.29 5.47 8.68 8.20 7.98 7.31 8.81
Melambatnya laju inflasi berdampak positif terhadap kinerja pasar obligasi Indonesia pada tahun ini. Pada base scenario yang kami gunakan, kami memperkirakan inflasi tahunan pada 2014 untuk turun ke level 5,68%. Namun, untuk menjaga pertumbuhan tetap stabil, diperkirakan bank sentral akan tetap menahan tingkat suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) pada level saat ini di 7,50%. Sedangkan untuk nilai tukar Rupiah pada skenario ini diperkirakan akan berada di kisaran RP11.400 – Rp11.600 per dolar AS pada akhir tahun 2014. Untuk base scenario tersebut, diperkirakan yield obligasi Pemerintah bertenor 10-tahun akan berada di kisaran 7,80%-8,20%. Easing inflation bodes well for the performance of Indonesia’s
domestic bonds market this year. In our base scenario, we expect 2014 YoY inflation to decline to 5.68%. However, to keep growth stable, the central bank might maintain its reference rate (BI Rate) at the current level of 7.50%. For the rupiah, we expect the currency to end the year at around IDR11,400 – IDR11,600 per USD. In the base scenario, we estimate that the 10-year government bonds yield stays between the ranges of 7.80% - 8.20%.
Exhibit 12. IDR Government Bond Yield Curve
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
EoY 2014 - Optimistic EoY 2014 - Pessimistic EoY 2014 - Base 31-Mar-14 31-Dec-13
Source : Danareksa Estimate
Exhibit 13. Government Bond Yield Curve
Source : Danareksa Estimate
YC 1Y YC 2Y YC 3Y YC 5Y YC 6Y YC 7Y YC 10Y YC 15Y YC 20Y YC 30Y
EoY 2014 - Optimistic 6.06 6.28 6.53 6.80 6.88 6.94 7.31 7.94 8.05 8.10 EoY 2014 - Pessimistic 7.61 7.78 8.05 8.29 8.45 8.50 8.81 9.30 9.56 9.60 EoY 2014 - Base 6.73 6.96 7.21 7.48 7.56 7.60 7.98 8.62 8.73 8.78 31-Mar-14 6.70 7.10 7.34 7.67 7.80 7.92 8.20 8.48 8.63 8.76 31-Dec-13 7.30 7.65 7.83 8.12 8.26 8.39 8.68 8.97 9.12 9.24 31-Dec-12 4.13 4.43 4.57 4.79 4.92 5.06 5.47 5.98 6.28 6.55
Bond Market Review
Pasar obligasi domestik selama Maret 2014, mencatatkan return 3,12% dibandingkan dengan return bulan Februari sebesar 3,79%. Hal ini menyebabkan return yoy pada Maret 2014 mengalami kenaikan menjadi sebesar negatif 5,70% dari bulan sebelumnya sebesar negatif 9,24%. Return dari capital gain sebesar positif 2,46%, sedangkan return diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon sebesar positif 0,66%.
Return Obligasi tenor panjang lebih tinggi
Return obligasi bertenor panjang (obligasi dengan tenor lebih dari 3 tahun) yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan obligasi bertenor pendek pada Maret 2014. Return dari masing-masing tenor sebesar 0,99% untuk tenor pendek dan positif 3,24% untuk tenor panjang.
Performa baik capital gain obligasi Pemerintah
Kondisi pasar memberikan dampak yang lebih signifikan terhadap obligasi Pemerintah dibanding obligasi korporasi tercermin dari return obligasi pemerintah sebesar positif 3,47% dan obligasi korporasi sebesar positif 0,90%. Capital gain obligasi Pemerintah sebesar 2,83% sedangkan obligasi korporasi sebesar 0,11%. Untuk return yang diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon korporasi lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah yaitu sebesar 0,79% dan 0,64%.
Perdagangan sekunder obligasi meningkat
Total volume transaksi obligasi di pasar sekunder mencapai Rp267,42 triliun selama Maret 2014. Perdagangan obligasi pemerintah tercatat sebesar Rp254,14 triliun, naik secara signifikan sebesar Rp104,02 triliun dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Demikian juga dengan perdagangan obligasi korporasi naik menjadi Rp13,28 triliun dari Rp9,99 triliun di bulan sebelumnya.
The domestic bonds market recorded a 3.12% m-o-m return in March 2014 after recording a return of 3.79% in the previous month. As a result, the y-o-y return in March 2014 improved to negative 5.70% compared to a negative return of 9.24% in the previous month. The capital gain was 3.17% while the return from coupon payments was 0.62%.
Returns on long tenor bonds were higher
Returns on bonds with tenors more than 3 years were greater than the returns on short tenor bonds in March 2014. For the short tenors, the return was positive 0.99% while the long tenors gave a positive return of 3.24%.
Government bonds performed well
Market conditions affected the prices of Government bonds more than the prices of corporate bonds. For Government bonds, the return reached 3.47% while for corporate bonds the return was 0.90%. The capital gain for Government bonds was 2.83% while the capital gain for corporate bonds was 0.11%. The return from coupon payments on corporate bonds (at 0.79%) was higher than that on Government bonds (0.64%).
Higher trading in the secondary market
Total trading in the secondary market reached IDR267.42 trillion in March 2014. Government bonds trading reached IDR254.14 trillion, or up by IDR 104.02 trillion over the previous month. Corporate bonds trading, meanwhile, climbed to IDR13.28 trillion from IDR9.99 trillion in the previous month.
Exhibit 14. Changes in the yield curve
1.00% 1.05% 1.10% 1.15% 1.20% 1.25% 1.30% 1.35% 1.40% 1 ye a r 2 ye a r 3 ye a r 4 ye a r 5 ye a r 6 ye a r 7 ye a r 8 ye a r 9 ye a r 10 y e ar 11 y e ar 12 y e ar 13 y e ar 14 y e ar 15 y e ar 16 y e ar 17 y e ar 18 y e ar 19 y e ar 20 y e ar 21 y e ar 22 y e ar 23 y e ar 24 y e ar 25 y e ar 26 y e ar 27 y e ar 28 y e ar 29 y e ar 30 y e ar 31 y e ar
Source : Danareksa Estimate
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Avg Monthly Transaction for Corporate Bonds :
IDR10,969.19 trillion
Avg Monthly Transaction for Governemnt Bonds : IDR156,889.25 trillion
Source : IDX process data & Danareksa Estimate
Bond Market Review
No. Bond ID Bond Name Issued Listed Maturity Coupon Rating Amount Date Date Date Rate (%) (IDRbn)
1 BFIN02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BFI Finance Indonesia 7-Mar-14 10-Mar-14 17-Mar-15 10.50% idA+ 225 Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri A
2 BFIN02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BFI Finance Indonesia 7-Mar-14 10-Mar-14 7-Mar-16 11.00% idA+ 55 Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B
3 BFIN02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II BFI Finance Indonesia 7-Mar-14 10-Mar-14 7-Mar-17 11.50% idA+ 220 Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri C
4 FIFA01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International 14-Mar-14 17-Mar-14 24-Mar-15 9.60% idAA+/AAA(idn) 805 Finance Dengan Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri A
5 FIFA01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International 14-Mar-14 17-Mar-14 14-Mar-17 10.50% idAA+/AAA(idn) 745 Finance Dengan Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B
6 VRNA01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Verena Multi Finance 19-Mar-14 20-Mar-14 29-Mar-15 11.00% idA 3 Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri A
7 VRNA01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Verena Multi Finance 19-Mar-14 20-Mar-14 19-Mar-17 12.55% idA 132 Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B
8 SMFP02ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya 27-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 7-Apr-15 9.10% idAA+ 60 Finansial Tahap III Tahun 2014 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A
9 SMFP02BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya 27-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 27-Mar-17 10.00% idAA+ 237 Finansial Tahap III Tahun 2014 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
10 BCAF01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan 27-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 7-Apr-15 9.00% idAAA 225 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri A
11 BCAF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan 27-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 27-Mar-17 10.00% idAAA 275 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B
Total Issuance Mar 2014 2,982
New Issuance of Corporate Bonds in Mar 2014
Source: IDX
Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Mar 2014
No. Bond ID Bond Name Maturity Coupon Rating Amount
Date Rate (%) (IDR bn)
1 NISP01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 1-Mar-14 6.4 idAAA 973 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A
2 BFIN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap II 1-Mar-14 7.5 A+(idn) 100 Tahun 2013 Seri A
3 WOMF05C Obligasi V WOM Finance Tahun 2011 Seri C 4-Mar-14 10.3 AA(idn) 366 4 ASDF01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 4-Mar-14 6.75 idAA+ 350
Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A
5 ADMF02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A 11-Mar-14 6.85 idAA+ 439
6 SMADMF01ACN1Sukuk Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I Adira Finance 11-Mar-14 6.85 idAA+(sy) 66
Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A
7 ASDF11F Obligasi Astra Sedaya Finance XI Tahun 2010 Seri F 18-Mar-14 10.9 idAA 370 8 VRNA01C Obligasi Verena Multi Finance I Tahun 2011 Seri C 18-Mar-14 11.25 id A 300 9 BCAF03D Obligasi BCA Finance III Tahun 2010 Seri D 23-Mar-14 10.95 idAA+ 100 10 SMFP02ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial Tahap II 31-Mar-14 6.8 idAA 160
Tahun 2013 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A
Total Mar 2014 3,224
Bond Market Review
Rating Change of Corporate Bonds in Mar 2014
Source: Pefindo
No. Bond ID Date Change Previous Change to Reason of rating change
1 PTPN III 4-Mar-14 idAA- idA+ The downgrade reflects its weakened capital structure and cash flow protection measures as a result of significantly lower profitability margin. The ratings reflect good plantation profile, stable domestic demand for palm oil, and adequate liquidity.
2 SDRA 7-Mar-14 idBBB+ idA- The upgrade is triggered by the approved acquisition of 33% Bank SDRA Subordinated idBBB idBBB+ Saudara’s shares by Woori Bank Korea (rated A-/stable by S&P) & the Bank’s
high-margin business model from consumer loan segment. 3 TRIO 7-Mar-14 idA idA- The rating change is driven by the Company’s weakened capital structure and cash flow protection measures as a result of its aggressive financing activities. The ratings reflect TRIO’s strong market position in the retail and distribution of telecommunication products, extensive retail and distribution network, and relatively diversified products.
4 BSMT 12-Mar-14 stable Negative The revision is mainly triggered by weakening asset quality for almost all asset categories. The rating could be lowered if its asset quality indicators do not improve in the near future
5 BDKI 12-Mar-14 idA idA+ The upgrade reflects PEFINDO’s view of the Bank’s continuous improvement in its capitalization and asset quality profiles. The ratings reflect strong support from the controlling shareholder, the Bank’s captive market in DKI Jakarta province, and strong liquidity profile.
6 SMFP 14-Mar-14 idAA idAA+ The upgrade reflects more favorable regulatory framework for SMF to further support mortgage securitization. Overall, the ratings reflect strong support from the Government of Indonesia (GOI), very strong capitalization profile, and favorable asset quality
Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Apr 2014
No. Bond ID Bond Name Maturity Coupon Rating Amount
Date Rate (%) (IDR bn)
1 FIFA01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 14-Apr-14 6.75 idAA+ /AAA(idn) /- 710 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A
2 MPPA03B Obligasi Matahari Putra Prima III Tahun 2009 Seri B 14-Apr-14 17 idA+ /- /- 52 3 SIKMPPA01B Sukuk Ijarah Matahari Putra Prima II Tahun 2009 Seri B 14-Apr-14 17 idA+ /- /- 136 4 FIFA01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 20-Apr-14 7.35 idAA+ /- /- 1,367
Tahap I Tahun 2012
5 SMFP01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SMF Tahap II Tahun 2012 Berjaminan Seri A 25-Apr-14 7.1 - /AA(idn) /- 255 6 FIFA11C Obligasi Federal International Finance XI Tahun 2011 Seri C 26-Apr-14 9.6 idAA+ /- /- 1,899 7 FIFA10D Obligasi Federal International Finance X Tahun 2010 Seri D 29-Apr-14 10.55 idAA+ /- /- 600
Total Apr 2014 5,019
Bond Market Review
Transaction Activitiy in Mar 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion
No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)
Maturity < 3 years
1 BEXI01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank I Dengan 23-May-16 idAAA 6.40 24-Mar-14 96.47 8.20 330.00 9 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B
2 ADMF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 27-Sep-15 idAA+ 7.75 26-Mar-14 97.32 9.69 187.20 17 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2012 Seri B
3 JPFA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap I Tahun 2012 12-Jan-17 idA/A+(idn) 9.90 26-Mar-14 101.02 9.48 179.40 11 4 ASDF01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 21-Feb-17 idAA+ 8.60 27-Mar-14 98.00 9.39 163.87 31
Tingkat Bunga Teteap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C
5 ASDF02BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance dengan 26-Nov-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 9.50 11-Mar-14 100.00 9.50 153.50 14 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A
6 BNGA01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap II 20-Nov-16 idAAA/AAA(idn) 9.15 13-Mar-14 99.38 9.41 150.00 5 Tahun 2013 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
7 TAFS03B Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Serv ices III Tahun 2013 Seri B 17-May-16 AAA(Idn) 7.60 28-Mar-14 95.70 9.85 134.00 10 8 BPFI01B Obligasi Batavia Prosperindo Finance I Tahun 2013 3-Jul-15 idBBB 9.50 28-Mar-14 104.00 6.18 129.00 6
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
9 BTPN01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN Dengan Tingkat 5-Mar-16 AA-(idn) 7.65 17-Mar-14 100.02 7.64 122.00 4 Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A
10 BCAF01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat 14-Jun-16 idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.50 12-Mar-14 97.00 8.98 115.27 8 Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B
11 SMFP02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-15 idAA 7.30 24-Mar-14 96.73 9.34 90.00 3 Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A
12 FIFA01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 20-Apr-15 idAA+ 7.65 12-Mar-14 98.25 9.33 66.00 18 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C
13 ADMF02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap I 1-Mar-16 idAA+ 7.85 27-Mar-14 95.20 10.63 66.00 12 Tahun 2013Seri A
14 SMADMF01CCN1 Sukuk Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I Adira Finance 1-Mar-16 idAA+(sy) 7.85 24-Mar-14 94.20 11.22 62.00 10 Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri C
15 ADMF01CCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 4-May-15 idAA+ 7.75 28-Mar-14 97.50 10.18 61.80 10 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri C
16 ASDF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance 22-Feb-16 idAA+ 7.75 24-Mar-14 100.00 7.75 60.00 3 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B
17 BTPN03B Obligasi Bank BTPN III Tahun 2010 Seri B 22-Dec-15 AA-(idn) 9.20 27-Mar-14 99.60 9.45 55.50 14 18 IMFI04C Indomobil Finance Indonesia IV Tahun 2011 Seri C 9-Jun-15 idA 10.65 26-Mar-14 99.90 10.73 50.00 5 19 PNBN05 Obligasi Bank Panin IV Tahun 2010 9-Nov-15 idAA/AA(idn) 9.00 21-Mar-14 98.80 9.80 50.00 6 20 TRAC02C Obligasi Serasi Autoraya II Tahun 2011 Seri C 5-Jul-15 idA+ 10.20 26-Mar-14 101.40 9.02 47.00 8 21 TAFS02B Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Services II Tahun 2012 5-Jun-15 AAA(idn)/idAA 7.50 17-Mar-14 98.17 9.10 46.00 12
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
22 PPLN11A Obligasi PLN XI Tahun 2010 Seri A 12-Jan-17 idAA+ 11.95 4-Mar-14 105.85 9.58 43.00 9 23 TRAC03C Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri C 5-Jul-15 idA+ 8.30 14-Mar-14 97.05 10.74 42.00 7 24 BTPN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan 3-Aug-15 AA-(idn) 7.75 5-Mar-14 100.03 7.72 42.00 2
Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri A
25 ASDF02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance 27-Jun-16 idAA+ 7.75 21-Mar-14 95.50 9.99 40.00 2 Dengan Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri C
Transaction Activitiy in Mar 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion
No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)
Maturity < 3 years
26 BDMN02B Obligasi II Bank Danamon Tahun 2010 Seri B 9-Dec-15 idAA+ 9.00 26-Mar-14 100.25 8.84 37.70 3 27 NISP01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I 19-Feb-16 idAAA 7.40 21-Mar-14 96.40 9.48 34.60 9
Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C
28 TBIG01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Tower Bersama Infrastructure 12-Dec-16 AA-(idn) 10.00 6-Mar-14 101.00 9.59 30.00 2 Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri B
29 JPFA01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap II Tahun 2012 1-Feb-17 idA/A+(idn) 9.90 25-Mar-14 100.78 9.58 25.00 6 30 BIMF01B Obligasi I Bima Multi Finance Tahun 2013 Seri B 9-Jan-16 (Idr)BBB 11.65 19-Mar-14 83.83 22.82 24.00 4 31 IMAT01B Obligasi Indomobil Wahana Trada I Tahun 2012 Seri B 19-Jun-15 idA 8.40 27-Mar-14 97.90 10.24 22.00 6 32 BSLT04 Obligasi Bank Sulut IV Tahun 2010 9-Apr-15 idA- 12.00 24-Mar-14 101.36 10.60 20.00 2 33 ADMF05D Adira Dinamika Multi Finance V Tahun 2011 Seri D 27-May-15 idAA+ 10.00 20-Mar-14 100.54 9.51 20.00 2 34 BFIN01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia 12-Jun-15 A(idn) 8.50 10-Mar-14 100.02 8.48 20.00 2
Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C
35 IMFI01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan 8-May-16 idA 8.25 11-Mar-14 95.05 10.85 20.00 2 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B
36 BIIF01C Obligasi I BII Finance Tahun 2012 Seri C 7-Jun-16 AA+ (idn) 8.00 10-Mar-14 100.02 7.99 20.00 2 37 BSDE01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai 4-Jul-15 idA+ 8.00 5-Mar-14 100.03 7.97 12.00 2
Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri A
38 TUFI01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandiri Tunas Finance 5-Jun-16 idAA 7.75 24-Mar-14 97.50 9.02 10.00 2 Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A
39 BTPN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan 28-Jun-16 AA-(idn) 9.90 10-Mar-14 100.02 9.89 10.00 2 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri B
40 TRAC03D Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri D 15-Jul-16 idA+ 8.75 10-Mar-14 100.02 8.74 10.00 2
Bond Market Review
Bond Market Review
Transaction Activitiy in Mar 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity 3 - 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion
Source: PLTO IDX
No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)
Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs
1 BSDE01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai 5-Jun-18 idAA- 8.38 14-Mar-14 90.90 11.10 763.50 31 Tahap II Tahun 2013
2 BMTR01B Obligasi Global Mediacom I Tahun 2012 Seri B 12-Jul-17 idA+ 10.50 20-Mar-14 101.32 10.03 565.50 13 3 TBLA02 Obligasi II Tunas Baru Lampung Tahun 2012 5-Jul-17 idA 10.50 19-Mar-14 100.33 10.38 347.90 7
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap
4 AKRA01A Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri A 21-Dec-17 idAA- 8.40 13-Mar-14 94.04 10.33 300.00 18 5 INDF06 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 31-May-17 idAA+ 7.25 28-Mar-14 93.60 9.61 270.40 16
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap
6 APLN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 27-Jun-18 idA 9.25 28-Mar-14 92.70 11.44 244.15 100 Tahap I Tahun 2013
7 BNII01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank BII Tahun 2011 19-May-18 idAA 10.75 26-Mar-14 97.83 11.41 225.00 59 8 PNBN04SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 9-Nov-17 idAA-/A+(idn) 10.50 26-Mar-14 96.82 11.58 204.36 31 9 BNGA01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 30-Oct-17 idAAA/AAA(idn) 7.75 28-Mar-14 94.60 9.54 196.50 13
Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
10 PPLN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 10-Dec-18 idAAA 9.00 11-Mar-14 98.86 9.30 189.00 10 11 SSIA01B Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 6-Nov-17 idA 9.30 14-Mar-14 98.87 9.67 167.00 14 12 WSKT02B Obligasi II Waskita Karya Tahun 2012 Seri B 5-Jun-17 idA- 9.75 19-Mar-14 98.41 10.34 150.00 2 13 JMPD13R Jasa Marga XIII Seri R Tahun 2007 21-Jun-17 idAA 10.25 20-Mar-14 102.40 9.39 136.00 18 14 SIAISA01 Sukuk Ijarah TPS Food I Tahun 2013 5-Apr-18 idA-(sy) 10.25 27-Mar-14 101.00 9.94 120.10 24 15 BTPN01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan 3-Aug-17 AA-(idn) 8.25 25-Mar-14 100.04 8.23 90.00 14
Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri B
16 SMFP02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-17 idAA 7.50 19-Mar-14 92.45 9.92 78.00 11 Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
17 ANTM01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Antam Tahap I 2011 Seri A 14-Dec-18 idAA 8.38 28-Mar-14 96.05 9.42 70.03 9 18 PNMP01 Obligasi I PNM Tahun 2012 12-Oct-17 idA 9.10 25-Mar-14 100.04 9.09 60.00 8 19 JSMR01CCN1S Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Jasa Marga Tahap I 27-Sep-18 idAA 8.90 24-Mar-14 98.40 9.34 60.00 5
Tahun 2013 Seri S Seri C
20 BNII01SBCN1 Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I Tahun 2011 6-Dec-18 idAA/AA-(idn) 10.00 27-Mar-14 97.83 10.59 48.00 15 21 MEDC01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 15-Mar-18 idAA- 8.85 5-Mar-14 100.03 8.84 45.00 3
Tahap II Tahun 2013
22 LTLS01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Lautan Luas Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Jun-18 idA- 9.75 19-Mar-14 96.73 10.72 44.00 2 23 BBKP01SBCN1 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Bukopin 6-Mar-19 idA 9.25 25-Mar-14 92.93 11.13 43.00 25
Tahap I Tahun 2012
24 APLN02 Obligasi II Agung Podomoro Tahun 2012 15-Aug-17 idA 9.38 28-Mar-14 99.75 9.46 42.20 27 25 IMFI01CCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan 8-May-17 idA 8.50 5-Mar-14 100.03 8.49 40.00 2
Bond Market Review
Transaction Activitiy in Mar 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity 3 - 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion
Source: PLTO IDX
No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)
Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs
26 MAPI01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mitra Adiperkasa Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 12-Dec-17 idAA- 8.45 25-Mar-14 100.04 8.44 40.00 4
27 PNBN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 20-Dec-17 idAA 8.15 25-Mar-14 100.04 8.14 40.00 4 28 DNRK01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Danareksa Tahap I 9-Jan-18 idA 8.80 25-Mar-14 100.04 8.79 40.00 4
Tahun 2012 Seri B
29 PTPP01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PP Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Mar-18 idA- 8.38 20-Mar-14 94.00 10.22 40.00 14 30 MEDC03 Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 19-Jun-17 idAA- 8.75 27-Mar-14 98.00 9.48 38.69 10
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap
31 PPGD12A Obligasi XII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2007 Seri A 4-Sep-17 idAA+ 10.03 26-Mar-14 102.55 9.15 38.00 9 32 SISMRA01CN1 Sukuk Ijarah Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung 11-Dec-18 idA+(sy) 10.85 13-Mar-14 101.50 10.44 30.00 8
Tahap I Tahun 2013
33 SSMM01B Obligasi Sumberdaya Sewatama I Tahun 2012 Seri B 30-Nov-17 idA 9.60 28-Mar-14 100.00 9.60 29.00 4 34 SMRA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung 11-Dec-18 idA+ 10.85 12-Mar-14 100.70 10.66 25.00 5
Tahap I Tahun 2013
35 SIAGII02 Sukuk Ijarah Aneka Gas Industri II Tahun 2012 18-Dec-17 A-(idn) 9.90 26-Mar-14 82.00 16.45 21.00 6 36 IMAT01C Obligasi Indomobil Wahana Trada I Tahun 2012 Seri C 19-Jun-17 idA 8.75 25-Mar-14 100.04 8.74 20.00 4 37 PPGD01DCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Perum Pegadaian 14-Feb-19 idAA+ 7.75 18-Mar-14 93.00 9.55 20.00 4
Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri D
38 AISA01 Obligasi TPS Food I Tahun 2013 5-Apr-18 idA- 10.25 26-Mar-14 103.02 9.34 18.00 11 39 ADHISM1CN1 Sukuk Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap I 2012 3-Jul-17 idA(sy) - 26-Mar-14 98.17 0.57 13.80 5 40 SISSMM01 Sukuk Ijarah Sumberdaya Sewatama I Tahun 2012 30-Nov-17 idA(sy) 9.60 14-Mar-14 97.15 10.54 12.00 5 41 ROTI01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 11-Jun-18 idAA- 8.00 20-Mar-14 86.50 12.13 10.40 9 42 BNGA01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 8-Jul-17 AA(idn) 11.30 25-Mar-14 103.73 9.95 10.00 2
Transaction Activitiy in Mar 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity more than 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion
Source: PLTO IDX
No Bond ID Bond Maturity Rating Coupon Last Last Last Vol Freq Name Date Trade Price YTM (IDRbn)
Maturity > 5 yrs
1 BNGA02SB Obligasi Subordinasi II Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 23-Dec-20 AA(idn) 10.85 25-Mar-14 101.15 10.61 162.40 6 2 BNLI01SBCN1 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Permata 15-Jun-19 idAA- 8.90 27-Mar-14 95.72 9.96 132.00 4
Tahap I Tahun 2012
3 PPLN11B Obligasi PLN XI Tahun 2010 Seri B 12-Jan-20 idAA+ 12.55 7-Mar-14 111.15 10.01 100.00 7 4 BBMISMSB1CN1Sukuk Subordinasi Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I 29-Jun-22 idA(sy) - 5-Mar-14 106.50 - 100.00 4
Tahap I Bank Muamalat Tahun 2012
5 BBMISMSB1CN2Sukuk Subordinasi Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I 28-Mar-23 idA 9.60 5-Mar-14 106.50 8.56 92.00 4 6 PNBN01SBCN1Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin 20-Dec-19 idAA- 9.40 24-Mar-14 96.85 10.13 66.00 16
Tahap I Tahun 2012
7 BNLI01SBCN2 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Permata 19-Dec-19 idAA- 9.40 26-Mar-14 104.25 8.46 46.35 12 Tahap II Tahun 2012
8 PTHK01C Obligasi I Hutama Karya Tahun 2013 Seri C 28-Jun-20 idA- 9.50 11-Mar-14 96.07 10.36 45.00 9 9 ADHI01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B 15-Mar-20 idA 8.50 11-Mar-14 95.03 9.60 35.00 7 10 SMFP02CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-19 idAA 8.00 27-Mar-14 88.14 10.80 30.00 3
11 ANTM01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Antam Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri B 14-Dec-21 idAA 9.05 27-Mar-14 95.15 9.96 25.00 9 12 BVIC02SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Victoria II Tahun 2012 27-Jun-19 idBBB 11.00 18-Mar-14 92.25 13.05 12.00 10
Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap
Appendix 1. Winners and Losers in Mar 2014
TEN BEST
Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Price Total Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Return Return
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung 10.85% 11-Dec-18 450,000,000,000 A+ 0.59% 16.38% 16.97% Tahap I Tahun 2013
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 8.15% 20-Dec-17 1,000,000,000,000 AA 0.59% 8.29% 8.87% “Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun
2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C” 7.40% 19-Feb-16 1,498,000,000,000 AAA 0.67% 8.15% 8.82% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 7.75% 30-Oct-17 1,400,000,000,000 AAA 0.68% 7.29% 7.97% Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan Tingkat 8.25% 3-Aug-17 725,000,000,000 AA- 0.69% 6.27% 6.95% Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri B
FR0062 6.38% 15-Apr-42 12,000,000,000,000 - 0.54% 5.67% 6.21% FR0067 8.75% 15-Feb-44 6,950,000,000,000 - 0.75% 5.22% 5.97% FR0057 9.50% 15-May-41 13,550,000,000,000 - 0.62% 5.12% 5.74% Obligasi I PNM Tahun 2012 9.10% 12-Oct-17 500,000,000,000 A 0.73% 4.89% 5.62% FR0045 9.75% 15-May-37 6,400,000,000,000 - 0.63% 4.93% 5.55%
TEN WORST
Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Price Total Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return Return Return Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri A 8.40% 21-Dec-17 623,000,000,000 AA- 0.84% -16.29% -15.46% Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri B 8.75% 21-Dec-19 877,000,000,000 AA- 0.93% -13.62% -12.69% Obligasi Bank Panin IV Tahun 2010 9.00% 9-Nov-15 540,000,000,000 AA 0.72% -11.60% -10.88% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 8.85% 15-Mar-18 1,500,000,000,000 AA- 0.81% -10.39% -9.58% Tahap II Tahun 2013
Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Victoria II Tahun 2012 11.00% 27-Jun-19 300,000,000,000 BBB 1.05% -8.63% -7.58% Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap
Obligasi Subordinasi II Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 10.85% 23-Dec-20 1,600,000,000,000 AA 0.94% -7.25% -6.31% Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 9.25% 6-Mar-19 1,500,000,000,000 A 0.90% -7.18% -6.28% Bank Bukopin Tahap I Tahun 2012
Obligasi Subordinasi III Bank OCBC NISP Tahun 2010 11.35% 30-Jun-17 880,000,000,000 AA 0.97% -6.03% -5.06% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 8.00% 11-Jun-18 500,000,000,000 AA- 0.81% -5.16% -4.35% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 8.75% 27-Sep-17 673,000,000,000 AA+ 0.78% -4.65% -3.86% dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2012 Seri C
Appendix
Appendix 2. Total Return Bond Index
MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%)
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 2012 2013 2014
Composite -1.86 3.79 3.12 -11.52 -9.24 -5.70 20.89 12.20 -10.14 Governments -2.17 4.05 3.47 -14.31 -11.90 -7.95 22.00 12.52 -13.18 Corporates 0.02 1.64 0.90 2.83 3.43 4.14 15.07 10.81 4.70 Finance 0.82 1.34 0.80 5.58 5.99 6.45 9.59 10.10 5.17 Banking 0.13 0.67 1.32 3.03 3.11 3.75 14.57 12.04 5.52 Consumer Goods Industry -1.91 1.00 0.80 2.49 3.44 5.63 13.24 9.05 6.58 Telecommunication 1.28 1.91 -0.43 -1.75 -1.65 -0.86 16.41 9.41 -1.15 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 0.05 2.20 1.71 3.90 2.52 4.33 15.80 10.07 6.85 Property and Construction -2.23 0.45 2.13 3.10 1.29 3.36 22.05 13.16 6.97 Corporate upper A- 0.03 1.63 0.91 2.97 3.56 4.28 14.83 10.75 4.84
Appendix 3. Danareksa Bond Index - Mar 2014 Overview
Return Total Return per Periode
Total* Price Interest Last Last Year to Last Last 3mo 6mo Date 12mo 24mo Broad Market Index (full maturity range)
Composit 3.12 2.46 0.66 5.04 6.14 (5.61) (5.70) 2.78 Government 3.47 2.83 0.64 5.32 6.40 (8.56) (7.95) 0.03 Corporate 0.90 0.11 0.79 2.58 3.71 7.39 4.14 14.32 Finance 0.80 0.07 0.73 2.98 3.90 8.30 6.45 14.84 Banking 1.32 0.51 0.81 2.13 3.75 7.76 3.75 16.44 Consumer Goods Industry 0.80 0.08 0.71 (0.14) 3.44 6.43 5.63 10.86 Telecommunication (0.43) (1.24) 0.81 2.78 (1.93) 1.60 (0.86) 7.83 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 1.71 0.86 0.85 4.00 5.59 11.12 4.33 15.71 Property 2.13 1.35 0.78 0.31 2.27 7.29 3.36 15.59 AAA …A 0.91 0.12 0.79 2.57 3.68 7.54 4.28 14.40 A-…BBB+ 0.75 (0.10) 0.85 2.56 4.23 0.84 (1.78) 10.03 SOE 1.80 0.97 0.83 2.06 1.36 5.29 0.49 11.13
Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)
Composit 0.99 0.23 0.76 2.12 3.62 26.26 4.40 10.81 Government 0.89 0.14 0.74 2.71 4.00 21.40 2.34 7.83 Corporate 1.12 0.33 0.79 1.22 2.96 31.10 6.22 13.92 Finance 0.73 0.01 0.72 3.29 4.22 31.64 7.53 15.73 Banking 1.46 0.65 0.81 (1.37) 0.38 30.19 3.80 12.92 Consumer Goods Industry 2.87 2.07 0.80 4.03 1.75 24.52 14.59 11.52 Telecommunication 0.57 (0.27) 0.84 1.56 2.29 30.76 4.75 14.58 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 0.32 (0.62) 0.94 2.98 11.19 39.85 14.72 16.81 Property 0.65 (0.23) 0.88 3.18 3.11 48.96 4.05 15.50 AAA …A 1.11 0.32 0.78 1.19 2.92 30.30 6.61 14.26 A-…BBB+ 1.11 0.98 0.13 1.66 6.12 7.46 (20.37) (11.01) SOE 1.23 0.31 0.91 (1.76) (0.40) 26.38 1.88 8.56
Mid-term Market Index (more than 3 yrs)
Composit 3.42 2.77 0.65 5.40 6.50 26.36 (7.05) 1.83 Government 3.69 3.05 0.64 5.52 6.61 24.03 (8.72) (0.33) Corporate 0.74 (0.06) 0.79 3.62 4.49 40.93 3.48 14.94 Finance 1.14 0.37 0.77 1.81 3.08 25.78 3.34 11.95 Banking 1.23 0.43 0.80 4.43 6.09 41.75 4.73 18.42 Consumer Goods Industry (0.34) (1.01) 0.67 (1.85) 1.64 37.52 1.57 7.96 Telecommunication (1.18) (1.97) 0.79 3.47 (2.71) 31.35 (1.67) 7.09 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 2.18 1.36 0.83 4.28 4.50 43.20 2.38 16.65 Property 2.39 1.64 0.76 (0.22) 2.11 26.26 3.34 15.37 AAA …A 0.75 (0.04) 0.79 3.71 4.53 40.95 3.48 14.89 A-…BBB+ 0.54 (0.29) 0.83 2.65 4.02 39.62 3.72 14.62 SOE 2.13 1.35 0.79 4.66 3.13 40.19 1.18 13.22
Appendix 4. Key Characteristics of Domestic Bonds
Total Weighted Average Average Average Average Market Weight Weight Return Average Coupon Modified Term Convexity Value in Sub in Broad (base year: Dec-04=100) Index YTM (%) Duration (IDR bn) Index Market
All Maturity Market Index
Composite 289.17 8.32 9.49 3.44 5.10 16.10 876,408 100.00 100.00 Government 278.58 8.10 9.38 6.17 11.32 40.07 758,397 86.53 86.53 Corporate 315.98 9.95 9.52 2.63 3.24 8.92 118,012 13.47 13.47 Finance 295.14 9.35 8.84 2.03 2.34 5.40 23,217 19.67 2.65 Banking 277.22 10.13 9.63 2.87 3.61 10.48 51,010 43.22 5.82 Consumer Goods Industry 302.68 9.79 9.13 2.73 3.26 8.84 4,800 4.07 0.55 Telecommunication 291.35 10.16 10.29 2.23 2.68 6.90 4,495 3.81 0.51 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 350.51 9.62 10.59 3.11 4.08 11.93 14,276 12.10 1.63 Property 331.02 10.50 9.64 2.94 3.60 9.94 8,450 7.16 0.96 AAA …A 313.52 9.92 9.40 2.60 3.20 8.82 112,416 95.26 12.83 A-…BBB+ 288.45 10.49 10.46 2.81 3.52 9.69 5,596 4.74 0.64 SOE 324.43 10.23 10.17 3.02 3.91 11.74 37,869 32.09 4.32
Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)
Composit 256.92 8.06 9.41 1.66 1.86 3.70 107,377 100.00 100.00 Government 225.68 6.80 9.66 1.42 1.59 3.77 58,465 54.45 54.45 Corporate 310.86 6.80 9.40 1.67 1.88 3.69 48,911 45.55 45.55 Finance 325.44 9.30 8.67 1.73 1.94 3.96 19,398 39.66 18.07 Banking 286.35 10.32 9.49 1.66 1.86 3.51 18,431 37.68 17.16 Consumer Goods Industry 245.49 9.56 9.77 2.32 2.72 6.66 1,700 3.48 1.58 Telecommunication 333.33 9.86 10.72 1.46 1.67 3.17 1,925 3.94 1.79 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 277.90 9.57 10.82 1.75 1.99 3.84 3,599 7.36 3.35 Property 294.00 10.61 10.02 1.70 1.92 3.54 1,275 2.61 1.19 AAA …A 300.09 9.85 9.29 1.70 1.92 3.80 48,071 98.28 44.77 A-…BBB+ 243.76 11.11 11.13 1.17 1.29 2.01 840 1.72 0.78 SOE 264.29 10.88 10.56 1.72 1.97 3.89 13,904 28.43 12.95
Mid-term Market Index (more than 3yrs)
Composit 284.59 8.69 9.54 4.63 7.25 24.32 769,032 100.00 100.00 Government 274.35 8.62 9.35 6.68 12.37 43.99 699,931 91.01 91.01 Corporate 330.10 9.72 9.64 3.54 4.55 13.93 69,101 8.99 8.99 Finance 281.12 9.76 9.30 2.88 3.45 9.40 3,819 5.53 0.50 Banking 266.67 10.02 9.75 3.80 4.97 15.90 32,579 47.15 4.24 Consumer Goods Industry 286.79 9.38 8.50 3.14 3.80 11.02 3,100 4.49 0.40 Telecommunication 291.68 9.72 9.64 3.38 4.21 12.48 2,570 3.72 0.33 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 351.77 9.90 10.47 3.87 5.25 16.43 10,677 15.45 1.39 Property 282.49 10.85 9.53 3.31 4.10 11.86 7,175 10.38 0.93 AAA …A 320.01 9.68 9.52 3.58 4.60 14.27 64,345 93.12 8.37 A-…BBB+ 382.91 10.23 10.24 3.36 4.27 12.25 4,756 6.88 0.62 SOE 345.48 9.99 9.88 3.99 5.37 17.62 23,965 34.68 3.12
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