Kepada Yth.: Bapak dan Ibu Pimpinan Kementerian/Lembaga, Dunia Usaha, Asosiasi, dan Organisasi (Daftar Terlampir) Di Tempat.

Teks penuh

(1)

Jakarta, 30 Oktober 2018

Nomor : 047/X/DIR-E/ET/2018

Perihal : Undangan Grand Launching Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF) dan

Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue Forum (IETDF) 2018 Lampiran : Daftar undangan dan kerangka acuan kegiatan

Kepada Yth.:

Bapak dan Ibu

Pimpinan Kementerian/Lembaga, Dunia Usaha, Asosiasi, dan Organisasi (Daftar Terlampir)

Di Tempat

Dengan hormat,

Pada 31 Juli 2018, Indonesia Clean Energy Forum(ICEF) telah diperkenalkan kepada publik

oleh Prof. Dr. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto selaku Ketua Dewan Penasihat. ICEF merupakan sebuah wadah berdialog, bertukar gagasan dan pemikiran inovatif mengenai transformasi sistem energi menuju sistem yang rendah karbon. Diskusi dalam ICEF diharapkan dapat menghasilkan analisis yang tajam sebagai bahan rekomendasi yang dapat disampaikan kepada pemerintah.

Untuk memperkenalkan ICEF kepada publik secara luas, Institute for Essential Services

Reform (IESR) akan menyelenggarakan peluncuran ICEF dan Indonesia Energy Transition

Dialogue Forum (IETDF) 2018. IETDF dirancang sebagai pertemuan tahunan yang dimaksudkan untuk berbagi ide dan pengetahuan terkini tentang transisi energi dan topik terkait lainnya, serta membangun pemahaman bagi para pemangku kepentingan.

Bersama ini kami mengundang Bapak dan Ibu untuk dapat hadir dan berpartisipasi dalam

peluncuran ICEF dan penyelenggaraan IETDF 2018 yang akan dilaksanakan pada:

Hari, Tanggal : Kamis, 15 November 2018

Waktu : 08.30 - 17.00 WIB (agenda lengkap terlampir)

Tempat : Grand On Thamrin Ballroom Pullman Hotel Jakarta

Jl. M.H. Thamrin Kav. 59, 10350 Jakarta Pusat

Acara ini akan dibuka dan diluncurkan oleh Bapak Ignasius Jonan, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Republik Indonesia. Besar harapan kami kiranya Bapak dan Ibu dapat memenuhi undangan ini. Atas perhatian dan kesediaannya diucapkan terima kasih.

Hormat kami,

Fabby Tumiwa

Direktur Eksekutif

(2)

Renewable Energy Scenarios for Indonesia:

Study Findings – Sneak Preview

Ass. Professor Ariel Liebman – Deputy

Director of Monash Energy Materials

and Systems Institute (MEMSI)

Jakarta, 30 Oktober 2018

Nomor : 047/X/DIR-E/ET/2018

Perihal : Undangan Grand Launching Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF) dan

Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue Forum (IETDF) 2018 Lampiran : Daftar undangan dan kerangka acuan kegiatan

Kepada Yth.:

Bapak dan Ibu

Pimpinan Kementerian/Lembaga, Dunia Usaha, Asosiasi, dan Organisasi (Daftar Terlampir)

Di Tempat

Dengan hormat,

Pada 31 Juli 2018, Indonesia Clean Energy Forum(ICEF) telah diperkenalkan kepada publik

oleh Prof. Dr. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto selaku Ketua Dewan Penasihat. ICEF merupakan sebuah wadah berdialog, bertukar gagasan dan pemikiran inovatif mengenai transformasi sistem energi menuju sistem yang rendah karbon. Diskusi dalam ICEF diharapkan dapat menghasilkan analisis yang tajam sebagai bahan rekomendasi yang dapat disampaikan kepada pemerintah.

Untuk memperkenalkan ICEF kepada publik secara luas, Institute for Essential Services

Reform (IESR) akan menyelenggarakan peluncuran ICEF dan Indonesia Energy Transition

Dialogue Forum (IETDF) 2018. IETDF dirancang sebagai pertemuan tahunan yang dimaksudkan untuk berbagi ide dan pengetahuan terkini tentang transisi energi dan topik terkait lainnya, serta membangun pemahaman bagi para pemangku kepentingan.

Bersama ini kami mengundang Bapak dan Ibu untuk dapat hadir dan berpartisipasi dalam

peluncuran ICEF dan penyelenggaraan IETDF 2018 yang akan dilaksanakan pada:

Hari, Tanggal : Kamis, 15 November 2018

Waktu : 08.30 - 17.00 WIB (agenda lengkap terlampir)

Tempat : Grand On Thamrin Ballroom Pullman Hotel Jakarta

Jl. M.H. Thamrin Kav. 59, 10350 Jakarta Pusat

Acara ini akan dibuka dan diluncurkan oleh Bapak Ignasius Jonan, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Republik Indonesia. Besar harapan kami kiranya Bapak dan Ibu dapat memenuhi undangan ini. Atas perhatian dan kesediaannya diucapkan terima kasih.

Hormat kami,

Fabby Tumiwa

Direktur Eksekutif

(3)

AIC - Establishes 2013 to facilitate stronger and

research-driven innovation based relationships between Aus and

Indonesia.

Shared Solutions for Shared Problems

Supported by participating universities:

4 Australian - Monash, ANU, Melbourne, Sydney

7 Indonesian – ITB, IPB, UI, UNHAS, ITS, UGM, Airlanga

With matching funds from Indonesian Govt:

5 Themes: ENERGY, Infrastructure, Water, Health,

Agriculture

Who are we? The Australia Indonesia Centre (AIC)

and affiliates

(4)

4

Energy, Electricity, Renewables, Fossil Fuels,

CO

2,…

Planning, investment, modelling …

Why do we even care?

(5)

TARGET KEN

2025

2050

Peran energi Sebagai modal

pembangunan Bauran EBT 23% 31% Penyediaan energi > 400 MTOE > 1.000 MTOE Pembangkit Listrik > 115 GW > 430 GW Elastisitas energi < 1 < 1 Listrik /kapita/thn 2.500 kWh 7.000 kWh Rasio elektrifikasi 100% 100%

Indonesia’s Electrification and

Climate Targets

23% 25% 30% 22%

2025

412 MTOE 31% 20% 25% 24%

2050

1.030 MTOE

TARGET RUEN 2025 TARGET RUEN 2050 KONDISI SAAT INI

Energi Baru dan Terbarukan Minyak Bumi Gas Bumi Batubara 33.8% 34.6% 23,9% 7.7% 2016 167,8MTOE

(6)

6

(7)

Once we didn’t know if it could

be done…

But now!...

With current Renewable

Technology,…

We can do it!

(8)

THE INDONESIAN ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

(IETA) 2017

Professor Kaliappa Kalirajan

Crawford School of Public Policy

Australian National University, ACT, Australia.

Dr Arif Syed

Visiting Fellow, Australian National University

Ex- Director, Resources and Energy Branch

Department of Industry, Innovation and Science

Canberra, Australia.

Indonesian Energy Technology Assessment

(IETA)–Draft Released October ‘18

THE INDONESIAN ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

(IETA) 2017

Professor Kaliappa Kalirajan Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University, ACT, Australia. Dr Arif Syed

Visiting Fellow, Australian National University Ex- Director, Resources and Energy Branch Department of Industry, Innovation and Science Canberra, Australia.

(9)

How do we

work this out?

Modelling and

Simulation

(10)

Modelling Overview

-

We utilised PLEXOS energy market platform,

-

used extensively around the world in 30+ countries

(including Gencos, NREL, AEMO, Universities)

-

Our Indonesian model finds “least cost” solutions

given

-

Construction cost of old and new technologies

-

Fuel costs, O&M

-

Given “unserved energy”

-

Target renewable energy percentage

10

(11)

Demand

Scenarios

Electricity Consumption &

Peak Demand Growth

(12)

Before anything: Must get demand

forecasting right!

2. Methodology

2-1

APEC

Exhibit 2-2 Actual vs RUPTL Peak Load Comparison.

The expected projected growth also contributes to the high reserve margin in Sulutenggo.

The system’s reserve margin significantly increased from 15.04% in 2015 to 36.21% in

2017. PLN determines the reserve margin based on Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

standard of approximately 25-30%. While high reserve margin indicates high reliability, it

also shows an excess of capacity. The excess indicates underutilization of assets, which

will be reflected through increase in the tariff to consumers. Through the Trend Analysis,

we aim to have an alternative view to PLN’s forecasts, and assess the implications of

such alternative.

Exhibit 2-3 Regional Reserve Margin Growth.

Application of Energy Efficieny Measures and Best Available Technologies in

Scenario Development

In taking into account the impact of energy efficiency measures to the demand projection

and energy generation mix, there are three level of measures considered in the scenario

development: (i) No Demand Side Management (DSM)/Energy Efficiency (EE) measure;

(ii) introducing EE measures in the demand projection through Cost Effective Potential

(CEP) technologies; and (iii) Applying EE measures in the demand projection through the

Best Available Technologies (BAT).

The CEP takes into consideration efficiency targets

that provide the maximum energy savings that result in a net benefit to the consumer

(even with subsidized electricity tariffs). It is only available for the residential sector.

The

BAT evaluates the technical potential for energy efficiency afforded by the best

technologies currently available on the market or designed from high-efficiency

North Sulawesi – Bitung LCMT

APEC Study Example

(13)

Demand Forecasts - Sectors

13

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 En e rg y D e m a n d (G W h ) Year

Java-Bali Energy

– RUTPL/High Growth

Residential Commercial Public Industrial

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 En e rg y D e m a n d (G W h ) Year

Java-Bali Energy

– Medium (more realistic)

(14)

The Scenarios

14

Scenario

Description

Demand

Renewable

Capex

WACC

RUPTL

RUPTL built as per plan

RUPTL

N/A

N/A

M1

RE plus Thermal Mix:

Committed plant built,

new thermal and

renewables optimised

Medium

Medium

10%

M5

Energy transition:

all new renewables only

(15)

Generation Mix – Java-Bali only

15

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

RUPTL

M1

M5

G

EN

ER

A

TIO

N

(T

W

H

)

SCENARIO

GENERATION MIX 2027

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Oil

(16)

Cost and Emission

16

Total $'Billion Scenario/year RUPTL M1 M5 2018 $ 6.6 $ 5.3 $ 5.0 2019 $ 6.9 $ 5.6 $ 5.3 2020 $ 7.1 $ 5.9 $ 5.8 2021 $ 7.5 $ 6.3 $ 6.2 2022 $ 7.7 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 2023 $ 8.2 $ 7.0 $ 7.4 2024 $ 7.5 $ 6.3 $ 6.5 2025 $ 7.6 $ 6.1 $ 6.1 2026 $ 8.1 $ 6.3 $ 6.4 2027 $ 8.9 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 Total $ 75.99 $ 61.99 $ 62.04

Cumulative CO2 emissions 2018 - 2027 (Mt CO2)

Total 3,451 2,805 2,632

Key Drivers:

Low cost renewables

Lower demand

Most benefit is due to

lower cost of technology

and optimised timing.

(17)

Lessons and Insights

There is risk of significant overbuild if forecasts are

overstated

RE can be a cheap system, if taking into account low tech

cost development, energy efficiency measures, and not

overbuilding thermal in parallel.

Now planning and policy is key

to realise these economic

and technological opportunities.

We have the tools and the solutions to make this happen!

(18)

Thanks!

ANY QUESTIONS?

You can find us at

Ariel.Liebman@monash.edu

Warwick.Forster@apogeeenergy.com.au

Also thanks to Jannata Giwangkara, Fabby Tumiwa, IESR), Aviva

Imhof, Arif Fiyanto (ECF), Mentari Pujantoro, Philipp Godron

(Agora).

Figur

Memperbarui...

Referensi

Memperbarui...

Pindai kode QR dengan aplikasi 1PDF
untuk diunduh sekarang

Instal aplikasi 1PDF di