Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 At Friday, August 10, US 10-year treasury yield fell to 2.87% after investors moved their assets to US because of Turkey currency crises. Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that fell to 1.24% and 0.32% respectively.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,87% akibat adanya perpindahan aset dari investor akibat krisis Turki. Dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,24% dan 0,32%.

Domestic Market Update

 At Friday, August, 10, BI published Current Account Deficit (CAD) data for 2nd quarter. Indonesia CAD for 2nd quarter reached 3% GDP, or USD 8.03 billion. CAD increasing was caused by deficit of Indonesia balance of trade and government debt payment this quarter. Executive Director of Statistic Department BI, Yati Kurniati, stated that even though in this quarter CAD widen to 3% GDP, in 2018, CAD still at 2.6% GDP. However, widen CAD are predicted to affect Rupiah in the short term.

 At Tuesday, August 14 2018, Government will issue IDR 10—20 trillion of government securities. There

are 6 auctioned government securities; SPN12181115 (Reopening), SPN12190606

(Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075 (Reopening).

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of Turkey crises and CAD negative sentiment. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,505 - 14,553 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.63% - 7.69%.

 Pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018, Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat defisit transaksi berjalan (CAD) pada Kuartal-II 2018 menembus 3% PDB atau setara dengan US$ 8,03 miliar. Tingginya CAD ini disebabkan oleh semakin besarnya defisit neraca perdagangan pada Kuartal-II 2018 disertai jadwal pembayaran Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) pemerintah pada kuartal ini. Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Statistik BI, Yati Kurniati, menyatakan bahwa meskipun pada kuartal-II ini nilai CAD mencapai 3% PDB, secara keseluruhan di 2018, CAD Indonesia masih berada pada batas aman, yaitu 2,6% dari PDB. Meskipun demikian, CAD yang melebar ini dapat memberikan sentimen negatif pada Rupiah di jangka pendek.

 Pada hari Selasa, 14 Agustus 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) atau sukuk dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang akan dilelang ialah ialah SPN12181115 (Reopening), SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064 (Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075 (Reopening).

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat dampak dari krisis Turki dan sentimen negatif CAD Indonesia yang melebar di Kuartal-II. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.505 – Rp14.553 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,63% - 7,69%.

Maturities (Year) 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0063 92.30 7.58 1905 BIIF02ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.00 7.75 340 FR0064 89.50 7.67 1176 PNMP02ACN2 idA 100.15 6.71 137 FR0069 101.00 5.00 793 BEXI03CCN4 idAAA 101.01 7.85 60 FR0059 95.40 7.73 600 BBIA01C AAA(idn) 102.67 7.24 45 FR0070 103.35 7.63 580 FIFA02BCN3 idAAA 101.20 7.21 40 FR0065 87.60 8.08 556 PIHC01ACN2 AAA(idn) 100.95 7.05 40 FR0071 108.25 7.84 439 PTPP02ACN1 idA+ 100.40 8.09 20 FR0061 99.25 7.23 396 SMFP04BCN3 idAAA 97.25 8.07 13 FR0075 96.00 7.90 294 ISAT01BCN1 idAAA 103.09 7.66 12 PBS016 98.31 7.39 250 TBIG02CN3 AA-(idn) 97.00 6.86 12 Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 10-Aug Indonesia (JCI) 6077 11.92 0.20% -4.38% 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1806 0.80 0.04% 0.50% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1706 -16.52 -0.96% -2.72% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3285 -41.96 -1.26% -3.5% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28367 -240.68 -0.84% -5.2% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22298 -300.31 -1.33% -2.05% 10-Year 2.87 2.93 2.95 2.83 Shanghai 2795 0.93 0.03% -15.48% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25313 -196.09 -0.77% 2.40% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7667 -74.76 -0.97% -0.27% UK 1.24 1.30 1.33 1.27 DAX 12424 -251.76 -1.99% -3.8% Germany 0.32 0.37 0.41 0.34

France 0.67 0.71 0.74 0.62

FX Rate 10-Aug China 3.55 3.54 3.46 3.48

10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.04 USD/IDR 14,529 14,474 14,476 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.277 1.282 1.300 Thailand 2.71 2.72 2.73 2.60 USD/JPY 110.8 111.1 111.3 Malaysia 4.04 4.05 4.04 4.09 USD/SGD 1.373 1.368 1.365 Singapore 2.41 2.45 2.47 2.45 USD/THB 33.32 33.24 33.26 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.085 4.075 4.083 INDO-22 3.75 3.75 3.77 3.82 INDO-27 4.35 4.35 4.37 4.37

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.93 4.92 5.00 5.02

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 10-Aug Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 10-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.05 5.05 5.00 4.98 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.41 6.41 6.40 7.05

3M 7.00 7.01 7.01 7.31

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.07

10-Aug 42.57 120.02 203.34 3M 2.32 2.34 2.34 2.34

(-1 Day) 40.16 113.28 194.18 6M 2.51 2.52 2.52 2.52 (-1 Week) 41.30 116.35 191.60 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 45.02 119.75 199.95 Deposit 1M 5.77 5.79 5.71 5.66 (-1 Year) 47.87 116.03 189.61 Lending 13.8 13.6 13.3 14.2 Benchmark 10-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield FR0061 99.11 99.01 10 7.27% FR0059 95.61 95.63 -2 7.70% FR0074 95.68 95.78 -10 8.02% FR0072 101.24 101.20 4 8.12% Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield

Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 09, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6-Aug-18 7-Aug-18 8-Aug-18 9-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 594.28 586.92 583.05 584.17

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 95.31 96.64 100.21 99.39

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.3 113.4 113.1 113.3

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.1 190.2 190.2 190.2

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 847.71 847.47 847.98 845.76

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.53 209.68 209.70 210.12

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.51 63.55 63.58 63.55

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.31 132.26 132.27 132.31

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 10-Aug-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0038

15-Aug-18

0.01

11.600%

100.12

-31.09%

100.48

-35.4

FR0048

15-Sep-18

0.10

9.000%

100.56

2.49%

100.63

-7.7

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.68

7.875%

101.06

6.22%

101.08

-2.0

FR0036

15-Sep-19

1.10

11.500%

105.15

6.51%

105.17

-1.8

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.27

11.000%

108.30

6.95%

108.39

-9.6

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.85

12.800%

114.39

7.10%

114.19

19.9

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.93

8.250%

103.02

7.08%

103.04

-1.6

FR0061

15-May-22

3.76

7.000%

99.11

7.27%

99.01

10.3

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.85

12.900%

118.22

7.36%

118.29

-7.2

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.93

10.250%

109.07

7.53%

109.00

7.7

FR0063

15-May-23

4.76

5.625%

92.61

7.50%

92.75

-14.8

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.93

9.500%

107.00

7.76%

107.00

0.0

FR0039

15-Aug-23

5.02

11.750%

117.16

7.57%

116.98

17.4

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.60

8.375%

102.81

7.74%

102.81

0.0

FR0044

15-Sep-24

6.10

10.000%

111.24

7.65%

111.00

24.0

FR0040

15-Sep-25

7.10

11.000%

117.59

7.73%

116.85

73.4

FR0037

15-Sep-26

8.10

12.000%

125.01

7.77%

124.68

33.2

FR0056

15-Sep-26

8.10

8.375%

103.91

7.71%

103.75

16.1

FR0059

15-May-27

8.77

7.000%

95.61

7.70%

95.63

-1.9

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.93

10.250%

115.82

7.76%

115.31

51.0

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.52

10.000%

114.57

7.80%

113.99

58.4

FR0064

15-May-28

9.77

6.125%

89.74

7.63%

89.90

-15.8

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.60

9.000%

108.22

7.84%

108.09

13.2

FR0052

15-Aug-30

12.02

10.500%

119.65

7.93%

119.65

0.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.77

8.750%

105.87

8.00%

106.03

-15.2

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.94

9.500%

111.59

8.04%

111.39

19.8

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.86

8.250%

100.00

8.25%

100.00

0.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

14.02

7.500%

95.68

8.02%

95.78

-10.2

FR0065

15-May-33

14.77

6.625%

88.13

8.01%

88.41

-28.0

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.61

8.375%

102.27

8.12%

102.17

10.2

FR0072

15-May-36

17.78

8.250%

101.24

8.12%

101.20

4.0

FR0045

15-May-37

18.78

9.750%

113.65

8.30%

113.649

0.0

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

94.36

8.07%

94.73

-37.2

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.94

10.500%

120.15

8.40%

120.15

0.0

FR0057

15-May-41

22.78

9.500%

110.27

8.47%

110.27

0.0

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.70

6.375%

79.08

8.43%

79.08

0.0

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.95

8.750%

102.66

8.49%

102.66

0.0

FR0076

15-May-48

29.78

7.375%

88.88

8.49%

88.55

32.4

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 13 - August 17 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date

Indicator

Series

Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

15 Balance of Trade Jul-18 - USD 1.74 billion USD 1.3 billion

16 7-Days Repo Rate - - 5.25% 5.50%

GLOBAL

Date

Indicator

Country Series Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

14 Economic Growth Rate Flash (YoY) Germany Quarter-II - 2.3% 2.6%

14 Unemployment Rate Kingdom United Jun-18 - 4.2% 4.3%

14 Economic Growth Rate 2nd Est. (YoY) Euro Area Quarter-II - 2.5% 2.1%

15 Inflation Rate (YoY) Kingdom United Jul-18 - 2.4% 2.5%

15 Retail Sales (MoM) US Jul-18 - 0.5% 0.3%

15 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 10 - 2018 Week Ended, - -1.35 million barrel 0.75 million barrel

16 Balance of Trade Japan Jul-18 - JPY 721 billion JPY –0.96 billion

16 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 11-2018 - 213 thousand 217 thousand

16 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 1755 thousand 1737 thousand

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PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

Head Office

Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2

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DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.

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Head of Debt Capital

Market

Cicih Sukaesih

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Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

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Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

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Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

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Economist &

Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

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