Data statistik tingkat Pengangguran, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Jumlah
Penduduk, dan tingkat kemiskinan Kota Medan
Tahun
pengangguran Inflasi
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi
Jumlah
Penduduk
Kemiskinan
2000
12.28
5.09
4.40
1904273
6.38
2001
13.35
15.51
4.60
1926520
7.25
2002
13.28
9.49
4.50
1963882
7.12
2003
15.23
4.46
5.06
1993602
7.25
2004
14.43
6.64
5.46
2006142
7.13
2005
12.46
22.91
5.48
2036185
7.06
2006
15.01
5.97
7.77
2067288
7.77
2007
14.49
6.42
7.78
2083156
7.17
2008
13.08
10.63
6.89
2102105
14.43
2009
14.27
2.69
6.55
2121053
9.58
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: UN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.778463 0.0215 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(UN)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:58 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
UN(-1) -1.175938 0.311221 -3.778463 0.0054 C 16.29683 4.302051 3.788154 0.0053
LAMPIRAN 3
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(UN,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.102837 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(UN,3)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(UN(-1),2) -2.852265 0.401567 -7.102837 0.0009 D(UN(-1),3) 0.896888 0.239155 3.750232 0.0133
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: INFLASI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.231799 0.0520 Test critical values: 1% level -4.420595
5% level -3.259808
10% level -2.771129
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:54 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
INFLASI(-1) -1.840637 0.569540 -3.231799 0.0179 D(INFLASI(-1)) 0.499927 0.358144 1.395882 0.2122 C 16.58651 5.772837 2.873200 0.0283
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(INFLASI,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.549683 0.0009 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI,3) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:48 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INFLASI(-1),2) -2.560831 0.562859 -4.549683 0.0061 D(INFLASI(-1),3) 0.641282 0.320000 2.004006 0.1014
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk(JUMLHPEND) pada
Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: JUMLHPEND has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.188213 0.2204 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:56 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk (JUMLHPEND) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(JUMLHPEND,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.346164 0.0277 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.346164
10% level -1.598068
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND,3) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:53 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(JUMLHPEND(-1),2) -2.430303 1.035862 -2.346164 0.0659 D(JUMLHPEND(-1),3) 0.874228 0.599746 1.457662 0.2047
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: KEMISKINAN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.815975 0.7692 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
KEMISKINAN(-1) -0.329260 0.403518 -0.815975 0.4381 C 2.777515 2.973191 0.934187 0.3775
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(KEMISKINAN,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.227332 0.0003 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN,3) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:56 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(KEMISKINAN(-1),2) -3.338945 0.638747 -5.227332 0.0034 D(KEMISKINAN(-1),3) 1.510489 0.520603 2.901422 0.0337
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (PERTUM) pada
Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: PERTUM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.153831 0.6482 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
PERTUM(-1) -0.241456 0.209265 -1.153831 0.2819 C 1.688278 1.251207 1.349319 0.2142
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi(PERTUMB) pada 2nd
Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(PERTUM,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.083465 0.0079 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM,3) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(PERTUM(-1),2) -2.085054 0.676205 -3.083465 0.0274 D(PERTUM(-1),3) 0.541430 0.406645 1.331457 0.2405
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Inflasi Dengan
pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: INFLASI UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.815380 15.30583 15.49471 0.0534 At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510
Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.815380 15.20512 14.26460 0.0354 At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
INFLASI UN
0.160264 -0.981899 0.376907 2.294866
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -29.62885
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
INFLASI UN
1.000000 -6.126746 (2.39218)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(INFLASI) -1.065956
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Jumlah Penduduk
Dengan pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: JUMLHPEND UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.897578 27.95126 15.49471 0.0004 At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.897578 20.50789 14.26460 0.0045 At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
JUMLHPEND UN
-1.04E-05 1.774187 1.43E-05 0.794246
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(JUMLHPEND
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -96.71027
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
JUMLHPEND UN
1.000000 -170130.8 (27548.5)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(JUMLHPEND
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Kemiskinan Dengan
pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: KEMISKINAN UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.845508 17.50519 15.49471 0.0246 At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.845508 16.80850 14.26460 0.0194 At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
KEMISKINAN UN -2.163365 2.285567 5.459825 -1.155267
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(KEMISKINA
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -17.46203
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses) KEMISKINAN UN
1.000000 -1.056487 (0.15016)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(KEMISKINA
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi Dengan pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:03 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: PERTUM UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.671380 11.28969 15.49471 0.1943 At most 1 0.131995 1.274022 3.841466 0.2590
Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.671380 10.01567 14.26460 0.2109 At most 1 0.131995 1.274022 3.841466 0.2590
Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
PERTUM UN
0.056448 1.612029 0.937120 -0.812927
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -19.20184
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
PERTUM UN
1.000000 28.55786 (9.18995)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(PERTUM) -0.023033
Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Inflasi dengan Pengangguran
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:20 Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
UN does not Granger Cause INFLASI 8 2.11830 0.45862 INFLASI does not Granger Cause UN 0.41298 0.78246
Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Jumlah Penduduk dengan Pengangguran
Pairwise Granger Causality TestsDate: 01/29/13 Time: 17:21 Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Kemiskinan dengan Pengangguran
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:22 Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
UN does not Granger Cause KEMISKINAN 8 6.48925 0.27912 KEMISKINAN does not Granger Cause UN 2.36563 0.43807
Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan
Pengangguran Ekonomi
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:24 Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
