PROSPECT OF NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
PUBLIC EVALUATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF
PRESIDENT AND VICA PRESIDENT
Jakarta, 11 Oktober 2006
Survei Nasional Nov 2004- Oktober 2006
www.lsi.or.id
INTRODUCTION
• People had given their voice democratically to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and M Jusuf Kalla (JK) to govern this country since 2004.
• Within the period 2004-2006, the people has the right to evaluate, and their aspiration were being heard.
• The people participates in determining the fate of this country, therefore assessing opinion of the people regarding national leadership and its performance is of importance in order to check so that the president and his vice will use their power according to the aspiration of the public at large.
• If there is a significant deviation from the public interest, there will be feeling of
disappointment and distrust against the government. These feeling become a trigger for the people to seek alternatives to solve problem out of formal mechanisms, including the use of violence. In turn, it will weaken democracy.
• Public opinion survey which is conducted with tight methodology is one systematic effort to disclose national level public opinion as a means of communication between the people and political elites in Jakarta.
METODOLOGY
●
Population of this survey are Indonesian citizens with voting right, those whor
are 17 years or more, or married.
●
The number of sample is 1,239 respondents, with margin of error +/- 2,8% at
confidential level 95 percent. Multistage Random Sampling is used to draw
sample.
●
Elected respondents is interviewed face to face by skilled interviewer. One
interviewer works only in one village and has to interview 10 respondents only.
Population of villages/kelurahan at National Level
Village/kelurahan at
Provincial level are randomly selected proportionally
In every RT/Lingkungan Randomly selected 2 HH
In every selected HH randomly select one person with voting right male/female
Vl 1 … Vl n
Prov.1
Vl 1 … Vl m
Prov.k
…
…
RT1 RT2 RT3 …. RT5
HH1 HH2
Male Female
Every village/kelurahan is chosen 5 RT/neigborhood randomly
DEMOGRAFI
Category Sample BPS Category Sample BPS
Male 50.2 50.0 <= Primary 48.4* 60.0 Female 49.8 50.0 Secondary 19.9 19.0 High School 23.7 18.0 Rural 60.2 59.0 University 8.0 4.0 Urban 39.8 41.0
Islam 88.2 87.0 < = 19 year 3.0* 15.1 Christianity 8.7 10.0 20-29 year 19.8 27.1 Hinduism 2.7 2.0 30-39 year 31.9 22.4 Others 0.5 1 40-49 year 22.6 15.8
>= 50 year 22.6 19.6 Jawa 39.4 41.6 Sunda 13.2 15.4 < 400 thousand 39.2 42.0 Melayu 5.7 3.4 400-999 thousand 39.1 38.0 Madura 2.9 3.4 >= 1 million 21.7 20.0 Bugis 2.4 2.5 Betawi 2.5 2.5 Minang 3.6 2.7 Others 30.4 28.5
Income
DEMOGRAFI
Category Sample BPS Category Sample BPS
Aceh 2.4 1.9 BALI 2.4 1.5 North Sumatra 4.8 5.3 West Nusa Tengga 2.4 2.0 West Sumatra 3.2 2.1 East Nusa Tenggara 2.4 2.0 RIAU 2.4 2.2 West Kalimantan 2.4 1.9 JAMBI 0.8 1.3 Central Kalimantan 1.5 0.9 South Sumatra 3.2 3.2 South Kalimantan 2.4 1.5 BENGKULU 0.8 0.8 East Kalimantan 1.6 1.4 LAMPUNG 3.2 3.4 North Sulawesi 1.6 1.0 BABEL 0.8 0.5 Central Sulawesi 0.8 1.1 Riau Archipelago 0.8 0.6 South Sulawesi 3.2 3.5 Jakarta 4.0 3.5 Southeast Sulawes 0.8 0.9 West Java 14.5 17.4 GORONTALO 0.8 0.4 Central Java 12.9 15.2 West Sulawesi 0.8 0.5 Yogyakarta 1.6 1.6 MALUKU 0.8 0.6 East Java 13.7 16.7 North Maluku 0.8 0.4 BANTEN 4.0 4.1 Papua 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3
80
67
63 63
58 77
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Nov' 04 Sept' 05 Okt' 06
SBY MJK
SATISFACTION TO THE PERFORMANCE OF
SBY-MJK
• SBY-MJK started their administration in October 2004 with significant political support (61%), with high expectation and optimisms from the public at large. In a month in power (November 2004), public at large were satisfied with the works of SBY-MJK (80%).
• Optimism then decreased sharply within one year (September 2005) reached 64%. It means the satisfaction level decreased 16% within one year. At the end 2005 and in the beginning 2006, dissatisfaction to SBY-MJK continued at the level 55% (March 2006). The mentioned dissatisfaction was a negative short term effect of the fuel price at the end of the year 2005. • Due to the fuel price increase the number of poor increased 4 million people compare to that
of previous years (2004-2005), or an increase 1,79% (Susenas Maret 2006).
• Unemployment increases from 10.51 million (2005) to 11.1 million (March 2006), or an
• However, it was a story until March 2006. After that, there is an indication of economic activities which grow slowly.
• Macro indicators improved. Up to the second quarter economic grew at 5.2%, and it is predicted to reach out 5.8%. This development is much better than the previous year with only 5.4%. We do not know yet the impact to poverty and unemployment, we have to wait for the next Susenas.
• Other macro indicators are decreasing of interest rate and stable rupiah against foreign currency.
• Fuel shortage and fuel price increase were the dominant issues of last year. In 2006 public at large do not look at those as problems.
• Are these economic improvements known by the public? Is there any improvement from the public who think the overall economic condition is much better after March 2006 compare to the last year?
• As will be explored below, the economic condition now is much better compare to last year, the point is increasing, this increase is parallel with the satisfactory level to the performance SBY-JK.
•
It has an impact to the increase of satisfactory level of the public to SBY-MJK. In
2005 satisfactory level of the public to SBY stayed at 63%, however, after one
year increases to 67%.
•
This increase is significant compare to March 2006 (55%). Satisfactory level to
MJK is relatively stable in the last one year. The satisfactory level of
SBY-MJK had been recovered after it reached its low level 55% in March 2006.
•
Increasing of satisfactory level to the performance of SBY-MJK in October 2006
is not big compare to the point they achieve in September 2005 (63%). This
result is consistent with public evaluation on the overall economic condition and
the level of optimism on the overall economic condition for next one year.
•
It must noted here, SBY-MJK until now are very popular, the public are satisfied
with their performance. This is important political capital for them to take
decisive public decision without fear that their popularity will decrease.
PERFORMANCE IN ECONOMIC SECTOR
• Evaluation on the present overall national economic condition
compare to that of last year and optimism on economic condition
for the next year.
Performance in Economic Sector
The overall economic condition of today compare to last year ...(%)
29
Oct. 03 Oct. 04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 Oct.06
Performance in Economic Sector
The overall economic condition of today compare to last year ...(%)
29
Oct.03 Oct.04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 Oct.06
The state of economic condition a year from now…(%)
Oct'03 Oct"04 Nov' 04 Jan' 05 Apr' 05 Jul' 05 Sept' 05 Dec"05 Jan' 06 Mar'06 Oct'06
Much better Same Much w orse
The state of economic condition a year from now…(%)
Oct'03 Oct'04 Nov' 04 Jan' 05 Apr' 05 Jul' 05 Sept' 05 Dec'05 Jan' 06 Mar'06 Oct'06
Much better Much w orse
Performance in Economic Sector in general
• In September 2005, the number of people who think the overall national economic condition of today is much better compare to that of last year was 24%, and now to become 29%. The number of people who think the overall national economic condition was much worse in September 2005 compare to last year was 47%, and now 43%. There is little improvement. The number of people who think the overall economic condition of today is much worse
compare to the last year is bigger to those who think it is much better. There is little
improvement for SBY-JK, as there is little improvement in economic sector as pointed out by technocrats (not the public).
• In general the people who are optimist to the national economic prospect under SBY-MJK administration is relatively similar to the previous year. Within the last nine months this trend is stronger. The people who are optimist that the national economic a year from now is much better is increasing from 39% in January 2006 to 44% on October 2006. Those who are
pessimist that the economic condition for the next year is much better is decreasing from 21% in January 2006 to 13% in October 2006. The number of people who are optimist is increasing, while the pessimist is decreasing.
The government performance in handling problems as
number of poorpeople
Reducing unemployment
Stabilizing prices To guarantee fuel supply
Controlling fuel price
The government performance in handling problems as
against US dollarSecuring availability of nine commodities
Inviting investors Constructing roads
The government performance in handling problems as
Housing for people Electricity infrastructure
Water infrastructure Reconstruction in the earth quake regions
Correlation of economy and satisfaction
to the performance of SBY-MJK
To the overall economic condition :
r
= .24 (P<.01)
To the efforts of government to handle economic
ECONOMIC ISSUES
•
Some of economic issues that need to be resolved by government: poverty,
unemployment, price stability for nine basic commodities, and controlling fuel
price.
•
The number of people who thinks the government has done its job very well in
controlling fuel price and guarantee its availability in the market are increasing.
The number of people who think the government can handle rupiah value against
the US dollar and to invite foreign investors are also increasing.
•
More importantly, government had been perceived as performing its job in
infrastructure such as road, electricity, water).
•
With plus-minus of those indicators, the performance of government in economic
sector is a little better compare to last year, and as such has impact on the
increasing satisfaction of people to SBY-JK.
Government performance in handling
following issues (%)
68 72 72
55
25
22 23
36
7 6 5 9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Government performance in handling
following issues (%)
66 70
Terrrorism Comunal conflict Protecting
Indonesian overseas worker
Illegal lodging
Government performance in handling
following issues (%)
50
Government performance in handling
following issues (%)
63
Local elections Labor-Employee issues
Government performance in handling following issues … (%) Protect the minority Protect Indonesian overseas workers Reducing illegal logging C ontrol illegal mining Handling conflict in Papua Handling Free Aceh Movement Implementing Helsinki MoU with Free Aceh
Movement
Make peace between former Free Aceh Movement member with Indonesian citizens
Sep-05 Okt-06
Correlation of politics-security issues and
satisfaction to the performance of SBY-JK
Influence of Politics-Security
•
Politics-security indicators have been positively perceived by the public in
general.
•
Public evaluate that government has done a good job in handling politics and
security issues such as order, criminality, terrorism, separatism, communal
conflict, fighting corruption, etc.
•
However, there are decreasing indicators on the government performance
compare to last year, especially in reducing corruption. In September 2005, the
number of people who think government had done a good job in reducing
poverty was 65%, and now (October 2006), decreased to become 55%.
•
Positive perception on the performance of government in handling politics and
security issues are increased the public satisfaction to SBY-JK.
Government performance in handling
following issues (%)
80 79
Health service cheap education
Women empowerment
Avian flu mud problem in sidoarjo
Government performance in handling following
issues (%)“Good” or “Very Good,”
Sept. 05 – Oct. 06 (%)
75
70
61
79 80
66
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Education Health Women empowerment
Correlation of performance in social affairs
and public satisfaction to performance of
SBY-JK
Performance of department and ministries:
3.86
3.79
3.76
3.69 3.69 3.68
3.64 3.64 3.64 3.62
Performance of department and ministries:
3.58
3.57 3.57
3.56 3.56 3.56
3.55 3.55
3.54 3.54 3.54
Performance of department and ministries:
•
There is ministries of department that received a very good grade, but there is
none that received very bad grade.
•
In general the performance of all ministries and departments fall between a
middle and good. Their grade is moderate.
•
Within this range from middle to good, the military received the highest points,
and forestry the lowest.
•
However, from the entire ministries and departments, the office that has strong
relation to the performance of SBY-JK are economic coordinating ministry and
departments under it.
Impact on evaluation over performance of SBY-JK
.105
National economic condition
.076
Choose Party Demokrat
.096
Citizen living in the less developed
villages
.143
Ministry/department politics-security
.154
Ministry/department Coordinating
Economic
.231
Economic Issues
Standardized regression
coefficients (Beta)
KEPEMIMPINAN ALTERNATIF
• Many believes that administration of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono must
be criticized and watched by individual or political parties outside the
government to pressure to his government to work for the people. Do
you agree with this opinion?
• The number of national figures express their criticims to the
government. If they are given a chance to run the government, do you
think they are more competent than SBY, or have similar capacity to
SBY, or less competent than SBY to handle problems faced by our
nation? They are: Amien Rais, Hidayat Nurwahid, Megawati, Akbar
Tandjung, Ryas Rasjid, dan Wiranto,
• Among the name listed above, in your opinion, who are capable to lead
Indonesia for the future in handling problems faced by our nation?
The necessity of opposition outside the government with task to criticize and control, so that the government will work much better for the people …(%)
80
6
14
0 25 50 75 100
Agree
Not agree
Don't know
The following national leaders, if they are given a chance to
run the government will …(%)
5
Akbar Amien Hidayat N Magawati Ryas R Wiranto
have more capability than SBY
have similar capability to that of SBY
have similar incapability with SBY
have less capability than SBY
Don't know
National leader who are perceived having more
capability to run Indonesia for the next future
(%)
37
17
28
18
0 10 20 30 40
SBY Megawati Others (16
persons)
There is no substitute for national leadership
•
Almost all people see the importance of opposition to criticize and control the
government SBY-MJK for them to make decisions which are reflected the interest
of the people.
•
There is no one who have ability as opposition and who received recognition form
the people so that s/he will be perceived as having more capability than SBY in
leading Indonesia.
•
In general the number of people think that these national leaders are less
capable than SBY to lead Indonesia.
•
SBY is still perceived as the main figure who is capable in leading Indonesia that
faced many problems.
•
The big gap between SBY and other national leaders in perceiving who are
capable to lead Indonesia for the future points out a failure of political
recruitment in the political party elites.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
•
If election will be conducted today, which presidential
candidate do you vote for? Open
If election will be conducted today, which presidential candidate do you vote for?
Open question…(%)41
13
2.4 2
0 10 20 30 40 50
SBY Megawati Others Don't know
If election will be conducted today, which presidential candidate do you vote for?
SBY vs Other figures …(%)Closed question
Dec'05 Jan' 06 Mar' 06 Oct'06
SBY
Others
Don't know
NO RIVAL
• The weakness of opposition from important figures against SBY,
and failure from political parties to produce alternate figures
from that of existing today, offers a big opportunities for SBY to
be relected as the president if election is done today (when the
survey was conducted).
• The potential SBY rival is still Megawati, with a wider margin of
more than a half for SBY.
Impact on vote for president (SBY vs other)
.246
Vote for Partai Demokrat
.112
Ministries/department
politics-law-security
.119
Economic Issues
.267
Performance of SBY-JK
Standardized regression
coefficients (Beta)
Path analysis performance of SBY-JK and vote for
SBY
Vote for SBY
Security-Law
Determinant voting for SBY compare to others
• Statistical analysis pointed out that satisfaction on performance of SBY as president is an important factor for him to be reelected. Contribution of this satisfaction compare to that of other factors is around 27%.
• Contribution from Partai Demokrat partisant is about 25%.
• Evaluation on capability of the government to handle economic issues is around 11%, and performance of departments/ministries under Politics-law-security is around 10%.
• Satisfaction on SBY-JK performance is closely related to their capability to handle economic issues, performance of coordinating ministry of economic affairs and politics-law-security, and evaluation on national economic condition.
• Social affairs, expenditure side of government, has no influence on satisfaction level of the people on performance of SBY-JK (controlled by factors from economic and politics-law-security)
CONCLUSION
• There is a stalemate in recruitment and promotion of national leadership by political parties other than the incumbent. Parties are tied veteran figures from election in 2004 which had been won by SBY-MJK. As consequences, SBY until today is still very popular due to lack of alternate figures. SBY will win the election if it will be held today, as it happened in 2004. • A wider electoral margin among SBY and other figures is uncommon in democracy, and
political elites should address this point.
• Outside the incumbent, in general a number of people want opposition, howvere, they do not see potential figures who have more capability than SBY. These elites have no capability to convince the public.
• SBY-JK strenghts are located in approval or public satisfaction on them. Almost 7 out of 10 citizen with voting rights (67%) are satisfied or very satisfy on performance of SBY-MJK as president-vice president. This satisfactory level is increasing significantly compare to the early 2006 while it was 55%. Compare to September 2005, this increase is not significant, only 4%.
• Sources of fluctuation on public satisfaction on performance of SBY-JK shall be public
• The level of public satisfaction on performance of SBY-MJK decreased when the level of positif public evaluation on economic condition decreased, or when the level of public evalation on national economic condition increased as it happened in December 2005, January 2006, and March 2006. On the contrary, the level of public satisfaction on perfomance of SBY increased when the level of public evaluation on national economic condition increases, and the level of nagative public evaluation on national economic condition decrease.
• Fluctuation of positive-negative on economic condition is associated to how public assess government performance in handling specific economic issues such as reducing povertyand unemployment, availability and control over price of nine basic commodities, mainly fuel, controlling currency, investment, and development in infrastructure sector.
• Evaluation on government performance in handling economic issues is related to public evaluation on performance of ministries/departments of economic affairs. In general, performance of those offices in the eyes of public is MIDDLE, even though not bad, and it helps to increase public satisfaction on SBY-MJK.
• Politics-law-security factors are also important for positive public evaluation on performance of SBY-MJK. Their handling on communal conflicts, separatism, fighting with drugs, order are several indicators from this factor, so far, the government is perceived as doing a good job in handling those issues. Compare to that of offices under economic ministers, the offices of politics-law-security had been perceived as doing a good job by the public, yet their impact is not as big as in economic issues.
