Fixed Income Daily Notes

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Teks penuh

(1)

Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 China will impose 25% retaliatory tariff to USD 16 billion US goods. This policy would be implemented at August 23 2018, same date as US import tariff implementation. China will impose tariff to fuel, steel product, medical equipment, Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt akan berlaku pada 23 Agustus 2018, bersamaan dengan implementasi tarif AS. Adapun jenis barang yang akan barang-barang yang merupakan ekspor mayoritas AS di Tiongkok, seperti minyak mentah dan pesawat terbang.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Rabu, 08 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,96% akibat meningkatnya tensi dagang yang menutupi dampak dari lelang obligasi AS. Seiring dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,31% dan 0,40%.

Domestic Market Update

sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.385 – Rp14.429 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,66% - 7,70%.

Indonesia Government Bonds Yield

Maturities (Year) 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

(2)

Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0064 89.60 7.65 2080 SMSMII01ACN1 idAAA(sy) 99.44 7.76 248

FR0063 92.50 5.00 1688 GNSMII01ACN1 idAAA 99.97 6.35 166

FR0074 95.35 7.16 1291 TAXI01 idBB+ 12.50 16.99 120

FR0069 101.00 5.00 1146 DILD02A idA- 100.50 10.27 90

FR0070 103.35 7.63 879 PNBN02CN3 idAA 98.46 6.63 82

FR0065 88.50 7.96 710 STTP01BCN2 idA 103.86 9.20 80

FR0059 95.25 7.75 614 BSDE02ACN1 idAA- 100.71 8.80 60

FR0072 100.75 8.17 516 MFIN03ACN1 idA 99.97 7.01 50

FR0073 105.05 8.10 456 MYOR01CN3 idAA 95.97 7.53 49

FR0075 94.20 5.00 451 BBRI01BCN2 idAAA 101.35 8.47 40

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 8-Aug

Indonesia (JCI) 6095 3.58 0.06% -4.10% 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1805 13.64 0.76% 0.44% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1722 14.38 0.84% -1.83% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Singapore (STI) 3327 -13.26 -0.40% -2.2% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49

Hang Seng 28359 110.26 0.39% -5.2% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76

Nikkei 225 22644 -18.43 -0.08% -0.53% 10-Year 2.96 2.97 3.01 2.85

Shanghai 2744 -35.30 -1.27% -17.03% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07

Dow Jones (DJIA) 25584 -45.16 -0.18% 3.50% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7777 58.17 0.75% 1.16% UK 1.31 1.32 1.38 1.29

DAX 12634 -14.65 -0.12% -2.2% Germany 0.40 0.41 0.48 0.37

France 0.73 0.73 0.78 0.65

FX Rate 8-Aug China 3.52 3.49 3.46 3.51

8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.04

USD/IDR 14,407 14,429 14,444 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73

GBP/USD 1.288 1.294 1.313 Thailand 2.73 2.74 2.72 2.59

USD/JPY 111.0 111.4 111.7 Malaysia 4.04 4.02 4.04 4.09

USD/SGD 1.363 1.364 1.362 Singapore 2.45 2.44 2.47 2.41

USD/THB 33.23 33.22 33.16 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.075 4.076 4.067 INDO-22 3.75 3.75 3.74 3.85

INDO-27 4.35 4.34 4.31 4.38

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.93 4.94 4.96 5.09

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 8-Aug

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 8-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.05 5.04 5.01 4.96

Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.42 6.40 6.43 7.18

3M 7.00 7.01 7.08 7.35

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.07

8-Aug 39.97 112.8 193.52 3M 2.34 2.34 2.35 2.34

(-1 Day) 39.30 110.97 191.12 6M 2.52 2.52 2.53 2.51

(-1 Week) 43.18 114.64 194.47 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 48.61 126.52 211.12 Deposit 1M 5.73 5.75 5.75 5.68

(-1 Year) 46.17 111.96 184.24 Lending 13.7 13.8 13.2 14.4

Benchmark 8-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 98.54 98.35 19 7.45%

FR0059 95.02 94.69 32 7.79%

FR0074 94.93 94.34 59 8.11%

FR0072 100.64 100.15 49 8.18%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 07, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2-Aug-18 3-Aug-18 6-Aug-18 7-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 588.90 597.38 594.28 586.92

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 103.45 92.99 95.31 96.64

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.1 190.0 190.1 190.2

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 844.99 847.14 847.71 847.47

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.46 209.48 209.53 209.68

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.44 63.47 63.51 63.55

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.21 132.25 132.31 132.26

(3)

Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 8-Aug-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0038

15-Aug-18

0.02

11.600%

100.48

-21.58%

100.27

20.9

FR0048

15-Sep-18

0.10

9.000%

100.68

1.94%

100.57

11.0

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.68

7.875%

101.03

6.29%

100.98

5.4

FR0036

15-Sep-19

1.10

11.500%

105.12

6.57%

105.17

-4.5

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.27

11.000%

108.16

7.03%

108.07

8.7

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.85

12.800%

114.07

7.23%

114.02

5.5

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.94

8.250%

102.78

7.18%

102.44

34.0

FR0061

15-May-22

3.77

7.000%

98.54

7.45%

98.35

18.7

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.85

12.900%

117.40

7.59%

117.20

20.2

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.94

10.250%

108.92

7.58%

108.71

21.1

FR0063

15-May-23

4.77

5.625%

92.33

7.57%

92.17

16.8

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.94

9.500%

107.00

7.76%

107.00

0.0

FR0039

15-Aug-23

5.02

11.750%

116.29

7.77%

116.20

8.9

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.61

8.375%

102.81

7.74%

102.47

33.9

FR0044

15-Sep-24

6.11

10.000%

110.35

7.83%

110.20

15.0

FR0040

15-Sep-25

7.11

11.000%

116.85

7.85%

116.64

21.1

FR0037

15-Sep-26

8.11

12.000%

124.48

7.85%

124.40

8.6

FR0056

15-Sep-26

8.11

8.375%

103.43

7.79%

103.03

39.9

FR0059

15-May-27

8.77

7.000%

95.02

7.79%

94.69

32.3

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.94

10.250%

114.75

7.91%

114.66

9.5

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.53

10.000%

113.48

7.95%

113.41

7.7

FR0064

15-May-28

9.78

6.125%

89.40

7.69%

89.06

34.4

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.61

9.000%

107.42

7.95%

107.04

38.4

FR0052

15-Aug-30

12.03

10.500%

118.00

8.13%

118.00

0.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.78

8.750%

105.05

8.11%

104.43

61.8

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.94

9.500%

110.80

8.13%

110.61

19.1

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.86

8.250%

100.75

8.16%

101.25

-50.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

14.03

7.500%

94.93

8.11%

94.34

59.2

FR0065

15-May-33

14.78

6.625%

87.83

8.05%

87.54

29.0

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.61

8.375%

101.97

8.15%

101.40

56.9

FR0072

15-May-36

17.78

8.250%

100.64

8.18%

100.15

49.1

FR0045

15-May-37

18.78

9.750%

113.65

8.30%

113.649

0.0

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

94.14

8.10%

93.81

33.3

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.95

10.500%

120.15

8.40%

119.75

39.5

FR0057

15-May-41

22.78

9.500%

110.27

8.47%

110.02

25.2

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.70

6.375%

78.83

8.46%

78.83

0.0

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.95

8.750%

102.66

8.49%

103.02

-36.3

FR0076

15-May-48

29.79

7.375%

88.60

8.49%

88.62

-2.9

(4)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 06 - August 10 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

06 Economic Growth Rate (QoQ) Quarter-II 4.21% -0.42% 2.02%

06 Economic Growth Rate (YoY) Quarter-II 5.27% 5.06% 5.10%

06 Consumer Confidence Jul-18 124.8 128.1 128

07 Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul-18 USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion

10 Current Account Quarter-II - USD -5.5 billion USD -5.6 billion

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

07 Balance of Trade Germany Jun-18 EUR 21.8 billion EUR 19.7 billion EUR 24.5 billion

08 Balance of Trade China Jul-18 USD 28.05 billion USD 41.47 billion USD 26 billion

08 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 03 - 2018 -1.35 million barrel 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel Week Ended,

09 10-Year Note Auction US - - 2.96% -

09 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Jul-18 - 1.9% 2.1%

09 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) US Jun-18 - 0.4% 0%

09 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 04-2018 - 218 thousand 217 thousand

09 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 - 1724 thousand 1736 thousand

10 Econ. Growth Annual-ized Prelim. Japan Quarter-II - -0.6% 0.9%

10 Econ. Growth Prelim. (YoY) Kingdom Quarter-II United - 1.2% 1.4%

(5)

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

Head Office

Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2

Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A

Jakarta 12790

DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.

Dealing Room

Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

eva@megasekuritas.id

Head of Debt Capital

Market

Cicih Sukaesih

cicih@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

palupi@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

qolbie@megasekuritas.id

Economist &

Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id Administrative

Figur

Memperbarui...

Referensi

Memperbarui...

Related subjects :