Lampiran 1. Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Seasonal ARIMA dengan Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Forecasts from period 120
95% Limits
Period Forecast Lower Upper Actual 121 188.429 -12.420 389.279
Lampiran 2. Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Dekomposisi dengan Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Periode (t)
a b �=�+�� Indeks
Musiman
Lampiran 3. Perhitungan Rata-Rata Bergerak dan Rasionya Periode Data Aktual Rata-Rata
Bergerak
Rasio dari Data Aktual terhadap Rata-Rata Bergerak
(%)
Januari 2004 103 - -
Februari 2004 108 - -
Maret 2004 288 - -
April 2004 170 - -
Mei 2004 179 - -
Juni 2004 228 - -
Juli 2004 317 271,167 116,902
Agustus 2004 441 297,833 148,069
September 2004 547 292,667 186,902
Oktober 2004 460 276,583 166,315
November 2004 192 269,583 71,221
Desember 2004 221 281,250 78,578
Januari 200 423 278,000 152,158
Februari 2005 46 267,583 17,191
Maret 2005 95 241,083 39,405
April 2005 86 214,083 40,171
Mei 2005 319 190,500 167,454
Juni 2005 189 187,583 100,755
Juli 2005 192 195,333 98,294
Agustus 2005 123 160,917 76,437
September 2005 223 168,083 132,672
Oktober 2005 177 170,333 103,914
November 2005 157 181,750 86,382
Desember 2005 314 180,167 174,283
Januari 2006 10 185,417 5,393
Februari 2006 132 178,583 73,915
April 2006 223 194,333 114,751
Mei 2006 300 202,250 148,331
Juni 2006 252 201,417 125,114
Juli 2006 110 204,167 53,878
Agustus 2006 148 217,333 68,098
September 2006 387 207,083 186,881
Oktober 2006 272 202,083 134,598
November 2006 147 206,583 71,158
Desember 2006 347 210,500 164,846
Januari 2007 168 197,750 84,956
Februari 2007 9 208,833 4,310
Maret 2007 62 215,000 28,837
April 2007 277 213,917 129,490
Mei 2007 347 212,167 163,551
Juni 2007 99 231,583 42,749
Juli 2007 243 227,333 106,891
Agustus 2007 222 226,917 97,833
September 2007 374 237,417 157,529
Oktober 2007 251 247,917 101,244
November 2007 380 242,750 156,540
Desember 2007 296 232,500 127,312
Januari 2008 163 234,167 69,609
Februari 2008 135 226,750 59,537
Maret 2008 188 231,833 8,.093
April 2008 215 222,583 96,593
Mei 2008 224 236,667 94,648
Juni 2008 119 223,750 53,184
Juli 2008 154 213,167 72,244
Agustus 2008 283 220,583 128,296
September 2008 263 224,333 117,236
Oktober 2008 420 251,333 167,109
Desember 2008 169 268,833 62,864
Januari 2009 252 264,000 95,454
Februari 2009 180 272,667 66,0147
Maret 2009 512 270,167 189,513
April 2009 264 279,250 94,539
Mei 2009 385 268,000 143,657
Juni 2009 61 267,333 22,818
Juli 2009 258 262,833 98,161
Agustus 2009 253 256,083 98,796
September 2009 372 248,083 149,950
Oktober 2009 285 227,833 125,091
November 2009 217 212,500 102,118
Desember 2009 115 205,583 55,938
Januari 2010 171 214,167 79,844
Februari 2010 84 209,000 40,191
Maret 2010 269 215,333 124,923
April 2010 80 198,167 40,370
Mei 2010 302 190,583 158,461
Juni 2010 164 209,333 78,344
Juli 2010 196 212,417 92,271
Agustus 2010 329 213,417 154,159
September 2010 166 211,750 78,394
Oktober 2010 194 220,667 87,915
November 2010 442 231,083 191,273
Desember 2010 152 224,167 67,807
Januari 2011 183 221,167 82,743
Februari 2011 64 221,917 28,840
Maret 2011 376 213,917 175,769
April 2011 205 213,750 95,906
Mei 2011 219 237,167 92,340
Juni 2011 128 217,917 58,738
Agustus 2011 233 224,667 103,709
September 2011 164 227,833 71,982
Oktober 2011 475 213,333 222,656
November 2011 211 210,583 100,198
Desember 2011 235 231,500 101,512
Januari 2012 181 228,167 79,328
Februari 2012 102 237,500 42,947
Maret 2012 202 233,500 86,510
April 2012 172 243,833 70,540
Mei 2012 470 240,250 195,630
Juni 2012 88 245,583 35,833
Juli 2012 317 244,500 129,652
Agustus 2012 185 242,583 76,262
September 2012 288 256,333 112,354
Oktober 2012 432 249,167 173,378
November 2012 275 249,333 110,294
Desember 2012 222 223,250 99,440
Januari 2013 158 226,333 69,808
Februari 2013 267 207,500 128,675
Maret 2013 116 227,167 51,064
April 2013 174 234,333 74,253
Mei 2013 157 240,750 65,213
Juni 2013 125 238,083 52,503
Juli 2013 91 261,167 34,844
Agustus 2013 421 - -
September 2013 374 - -
Oktober 2013 509 - -
November 2013 243 - -
28 223 86,042 259,175 784 7.256,913
29 300 141,965 211,319 841 6.128,273
30 252 61,877 407,259 900 12.217,78
31 110 93,612 117,506 961 3.642,696
32 148 106,924 138,416 1.024 4.429,311
33 387 137,065 282,348 1.089 9.317,47
34 272 142,435 190,964 1.156 6.492,782
35 147 104,789 140,281 1.225 4.909,829
36 347 102,959 337,026 1.296 12.132,93
37 168 82,346 204,016 1.369 7.548,59
38 9 48,175 18,682 1.444 709,91
39 62 91,809 67,532 1.521 2.633,736
40 277 86,042 321,935 1.600 12.877,42
41 347 141,965 244,426 1.681 10.021,49
42 99 61,877 159,995 1.764 6.719,776
43 243 93,612 259,582 1.849 11.162,03
44 222 106,924 207,624 1.936 9.135,453
45 374 137,065 272,863 2.025 12.278,84
46 251 142,435 176,221 2.116 8.106,148
47 380 104,789 362,631 2.209 17.043,64
48 296 102,959 287,492 2.304 13.799,61
49 163 82,346 197,944 2.401 9.699,259
50 135 48,175 280,228 2.500 14.011,38
51 188 91,809 204,773 2.601 10.443,45
52 215 86,042 249,877 2.704 12.993,64
53 224 141,965 157,785 2.809 8.362,628
54 119 61,877 192,317 2.916 10.385,11
55 154 93,612 164,509 3.025 9.047,986
56 283 106,924 264,674 3.136 14.821,73
57 263 137,065 191,879 3.249 10.937,14
58 420 142,435 294,871 3.364 17.102,53
60 169 102,959 164,142 3.600 9.848,536
61 252 82,346 306,024 3.721 18.667,46
62 180 48,175 373,637 3.844 23.165,48
63 512 91,809 557,681 3.969 35.133,91
64 264 86,042 306,827 4.096 19.636,9
65 385 141,965 271,194 4.225 17.627,59
66 61 61,877 98,582 4.356 6.506,45
67 258 93,612 275,606 4.489 18.465,58
68 253 106,924 236,616 4.624 16.089,92
69 372 137,065 271,404 4.761 18.726,87
70 285 142,435 200,091 4.900 14.006,38
71 217 104,789 207,081 5.041 14.702,77
72 115 102,959 111,694 5.184 8.042
73 171 82,346 207,659 5.329 15.159,11
74 84 48,175 174,364 5.476 12.902,93
75 269 91,809 293,000 5.625 21.975,03
76 80 86,042 92,978 5.776 7.066,309
77 302 141,965 212,729 5.929 16.380,1
78 164 61,877 265,042 6.084 20.673,25
79 196 93,612 209,375 6.241 16.540,62
80 329 106,924 307,695 6.400 24.615,6
81 166 137,065 121,110 6.561 9.809,936
82 194 142,435 136,202 6.724 11.168,6
83 442 104,789 421,797 6.889 35.009,14
84 152 102,959 147,631 7.056 12.401
85 183 82,346 222,232 7.225 18.889,69
86 64 48,175 132,849 7.396 11.424,98
87 376 91,809 409,547 7.569 35.630,59
88 205 86,042 238,255 7.744 20.966,48
89 219 141,965 154,263 7.921 13.729,45
90 128 61,877 206,862 8.100 18.617,56
92 233 106,924 217,912 8.464 20.047,87
93 164 137,065 119,651 8.649 11.127,56
94 475 142,435 333,485 8.836 31.347,61
95 211 104,789 201,355 9.025 19.128,77
96 235 102,959 228,245 9.216 21.911,54
97 181 82,346 219,803 9.409 21.320,88
98 102 48,175 211,727 9.604 20.749,3
99 202 91,809 220,023 9.801 21.782,24
100 172 86,042 199,902 10.000 19.990,22
101 470 141,965 331,068 10.201 33.437,83
102 88 61,877 142,217 10.404 14.506,18
103 317 93,612 338,632 10.609 34.879,08
104 185 106,924 173,020 10.816 17.994,07
105 288 137,065 210,119 11.025 22.062,51
106 432 142,435 303,296 11.236 32.149,38
107 275 104,789 262,430 11.449 28.080,03
108 222 102,959 215,619 11.664 23.286,83
109 158 82,346 191,872 11.881 20.914,06
110 267 48,175 554,228 12.100 60.965,08
111 116 91,809 126,349 12.321 14.024,81
112 174 86,042 202,227 12.544 22.649,38
113 157 141,965 110,591 12.769 12.496,75
114 125 61,877 202,013 12.996 23.029,54
115 91 93,612 97,209 13.225 11.179,12
116 421 106,924 393,737 13.456 45.673,53
117 374 137,065 272,863 13.689 31.924,97
118 509 142,435 357,356 13.924 42.167,98
119 243 104,789 231,893 14.161 27.595,24
120 499 102,959 484,657 14.400 58.158,81
