Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

Global Market Update

 3 currency of emerging countries depreciated simultaneously yesterday, August 30 2018. Those 3 currencies are Argentina Peso, Turkish Lira, and Rand South Africa. Argentina Peso were depreciated after soaring negative sentiment because Argentina president, Mauricio Macri, stated that USD 50 billion financial aid from IMF had been agreed to be hastened by IMF. On the other hand, Turkish Lira were weakened after deputy of Turkey Central Bank resigned. Another currency, Rand South Africa, increased volatility, after controversy about land reform.

 Yesterday, August 30, US 10-years treasury yield fell to 2.86% after investors shifted their asset to safe haven asset because of Argentina crises. Majority of global benchmark bond yield also moved downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds, which fell to 1.45% and 0.34%.

 Secara bersamaan, nilai tukar mata uang dari 3 negara berkembang mengalami pelemahan pada Kamis, 30 Agustus 2018. Adapun 3 negara tersebut ialah Argentina, Turki, dan Juga Afrika Selatan. Peso Argentina terdepresiasi akibat sentimen yang berbalik negatif setelah presiden Argentina Mauricio Macri menyatakan bahwa percepatan pendanaan sebesar USD 50 miliar telah disetujui IMF. Di sisi lain, Lira Turki kembali melemah setelah deputi Bank Sentralnya mengundurkan diri. Selain kedua negara tersebut, volatilitas nilai mata uang Afrika Selatan, Rand, juga naik seiring dengan kontroversi terkait reformasi lahan yang coba diimplementasikan oleh pemerintah Afrika Selatan.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Kamis, 30 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,86% akibat inves-tor yang cenderung mencari safe haven akibat krisis di negara-negara berkembang. Dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global juga ditutup mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds ditutup turun ke level 1,45% dan 0,34%.

Domestic Market Update

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken because of negative sentiment from Argentina and Turkey crises. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,766 - 14,800 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.94% - 7.99%.

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat sentimen negatif di pasar negara berkembang, yang didorong oleh krisis Argentina dan Turki. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.766 – Rp14.800 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,94% - 7,99%. 4.50

Maturities (Year) 30-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0063 91.49 7.82 3470 FIFA03BCN3 idAAA 99.25 7.77 282 FR0064 87.55 7.99 1973 BIIF02ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.08 7.00 200 FR0075 94.25 8.09 1656 SWMEDP01B idA(sy) 100.00 10.38 200 FR0069 100.65 4.90 1394 MGIA01 idAA+ 100.07 7.66 100 FR0053 102.04 7.48 1176 ADMF04DCN3 idAAA 101.00 8.70 76 SPN12190214 97.33 6.00 990 ADMF04CCN3 idAAA 100.00 7.72 75 FR0056 100.80 8.24 866 BEXI04ACN1 idAAA 98.15 8.26 65 FR0074 94.30 8.19 800 OTMA02B idAA+ 100.20 6.36 60 PBS005 90.83 7.58 676 APLN01CN3 idA- 104.15 9.16 50 FR0070 102.00 6.73 524 MFIN03ACN1 idA 90.05 7.40 44

Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 30-Aug

Indonesia (JCI) 6019 -46.19 -0.76% -5.30% 30-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1820 -0.98 -0.05% 1.27% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1720 -1.83 -0.11% -1.90% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3226 -18.20 -0.56% -5.2% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28164 -252.39 -0.89% -5.9% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22870 21.28 0.09% 0.46% 10-Year 2.86 2.89 2.83 2.99 Shanghai 2738 -31.56 -1.14% -17.22% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25987 -137.65 -0.53% 5.13% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7516 -47.18 -0.62% -2.23% UK 1.45 1.49 1.27 1.38 DAX 12494 -67.44 -0.54% -3.3% Germany 0.34 0.40 0.34 0.46

France 0.69 0.73 0.68 0.78

FX Rate 30-Aug China 3.59 3.62 3.60 3.47

30-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.12 USD/IDR 14,800 14,672 14,654 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.301 1.303 1.281 Thailand 2.73 2.71 2.75 2.72 USD/JPY 111.0 111.7 111.3 Malaysia 4.04 4.03 4.02 4.03 USD/SGD 1.368 1.365 1.374 Singapore 2.37 2.36 2.38 2.49 USD/THB 32.79 32.69 32.87 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.116 4.127 4.105 INDO-22 3.76 3.75 3.79 3.73 INDO-27 4.37 4.35 4.39 4.29

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.91 4.89 4.93 4.94

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 30-Aug

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 30-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.01 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.41

3M 7.10 7.11 7.13 7.08

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.08 2.08 2.06 2.08

30-Aug 44.98 122.53 202.58 3M 2.31 2.31 2.31 2.34

(-1 Day) 43.52 118.05 202.65 6M 2.53 2.53 2.52 2.53 (-1 Week) 45.82 121.06 204.04 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 41.95 118.15 193.93 Deposit 1M 5.79 5.80 5.76 5.76 (-1 Year) 36.76 100.24 169.46 Lending 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7

Benchmark 30-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield

FR0061 98.27 98.35 -8 7.54% FR0059 94.12 94.28 -15 7.95% FR0074 94.22 94.49 -27 8.20% FR0072 98.94 98.97 -3 8.36%

Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 29, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 24-Aug-18 27-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 29-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 588.40 578.20 577.31 579.67

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 111.62 115.43 115.74 113.16

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.3 113.3 113.4 113.3

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 190.7 190.4 190.5 190.6

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 847.52 846.84 847.18 848.52

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.86 209.71 209.95 209.87

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.80 63.79 63.80 63.77

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 131.82 132.80 132.56 132.55

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 30-Aug-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0048

15-Sep-18

0.04

9.000%

100.19

3.08%

100.13

5.8

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.62

7.875%

100.70

6.68%

100.76

-6.6

FR0036

15-Sep-19

1.04

11.500%

104.58

6.89%

104.58

0.0

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.21

11.000%

107.85

7.07%

107.83

2.3

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.79

12.800%

113.77

7.23%

113.72

4.7

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.88

8.250%

102.20

7.38%

102.27

-7.2

FR0061

15-May-22

3.71

7.000%

98.27

7.54%

98.35

-7.8

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.79

12.900%

117.01

7.63%

117.06

-5.5

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.88

10.250%

108.24

7.74%

108.23

1.3

FR0063

15-May-23

4.71

5.625%

91.78

7.74%

91.97

-18.5

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.88

9.500%

106.83

7.78%

107.00

-17.2

FR0039

15-Aug-23

4.96

11.750%

115.87

7.82%

115.90

-2.7

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.55

8.375%

102.40

7.83%

102.51

-10.5

FR0044

15-Sep-24

6.05

10.000%

110.14

7.86%

110.17

-3.2

FR0040

15-Sep-25

7.05

11.000%

116.54

7.89%

116.55

-1.2

FR0037

15-Sep-26

8.05

12.000%

123.88

7.92%

123.99

-11.1

FR0056

15-Sep-26

8.05

8.375%

102.42

7.96%

102.56

-13.3

FR0059

15-May-27

8.71

7.000%

94.12

7.95%

94.28

-15.4

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.88

10.250%

114.18

7.99%

114.25

-7.1

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.47

10.000%

112.91

8.02%

113.00

-8.4

FR0064

15-May-28

9.72

6.125%

87.87

7.94%

88.10

-23.0

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.55

9.000%

106.44

8.08%

106.83

-39.0

FR0052

15-Aug-30

11.97

10.500%

118.21

8.09%

117.50

71.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.72

8.750%

104.81

8.13%

104.89

-8.1

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.88

9.500%

110.43

8.17%

110.73

-29.9

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.80

8.250%

99.25

8.34%

100.85

-160.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

13.97

7.500%

94.22

8.20%

94.49

-26.9

FR0065

15-May-33

14.72

6.625%

87.47

8.10%

87.98

-50.8

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.55

8.375%

100.88

8.27%

101.10

-21.7

FR0072

15-May-36

17.72

8.250%

98.94

8.36%

98.97

-3.4

FR0045

15-May-37

18.72

9.750%

112.75

8.39%

112.754

0.0

FR0075

15-May-38

138.47

7.500%

91.10

8.43%

91.51

-40.8

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.89

10.500%

119.39

8.46%

119.50

-10.5

FR0057

15-May-41

22.72

9.500%

108.96

8.59%

109.20

-24.7

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.64

6.375%

78.60

8.49%

78.65

-5.5

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.89

8.750%

102.17

8.54%

101.85

32.1

FR0076

15-May-48

29.73

7.375%

88.35

8.53%

88.48

-12.3

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 27 - August 31 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

31 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Jul-18 - 5.9% -

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

27 Ifo Business Climate Germany Aug-18 103.8 101.7 102.5

28 Goods Trade Balance Adv. US Jul-18 USD -72.2 billion USD -68.3 billion -

29 Economic Growth Rate 2nd est. (QoQ) US Quarter-II 4.2% 2.2% 4.1%

29 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 24 - 2018 -2.57 million barrel -5.84 million barrel 0.71 million barrel Week Ended,

30 Unemployment Rate Germany Aug-18 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

30 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 18-2018 1708 thousand 1728 thousand 1725 thousand

31 Unemployment Rate Japan Jul-18 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%

31 NBS Manufacturing PMI China Aug-18 - 51.2 51.5

31 Inflation Rate Flash. (YoY) Euro Area Aug-18 - 2.1% 2.0%

31 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Jul-18 - 8.3% 8.4%

30 Business Confidence Euro Area Aug-18 1.22 1.30 1.25

30 Inflation Rate Prel. (YoY) Germany Aug-18 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

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This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights

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