Fixed Income Daily Notes

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Fixed Income Daily Notes

indicated by 10-years UK gilt , which moved upward to 1.45% and German Bunds that flat at 0.38%.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Selasa, 28 Agustus 2018 ditutup naik ke level 2,88% setelah pemerintah Jerman mempertibangkan untuk memperpanjang bantuan finansial untuk Turki. Dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global ditutup bervariasi, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt yang naik ke level 1,45% dan German Bund yang ditutup datar di level 0,38%.

Domestic Market Update

 Yesterday, August 28 2018, The government absorbed IDR 20 trillion in the last government securities (SUN) auction from

total incoming bids IDR 59.28 trillion. The absorbed amount was at government’s maximum target IDR 20 trillion. Moreover, incoming bids posted far higher level than last auction, IDR 34.38 trillion, while FR0064 became the most interesting series in the auction with an incoming bids IDR 17.27 trillion.

 Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to strengthen moderately because of Rupiah appreciation tendency. Rupiah will be ranging from lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) kemarin dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk (incoming bids) mencapai Rp 59,28 triliun dengan jumlah dana yang diserap berada pada target maksimal pemerintah sebesar Rp 20 triliun. Adapun jumlah incoming bids pada lelang kemarin lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan lelang SUN sebelumnya yang mencapai Rp 34,38 triliun, dengan Seri FR0064 menjadi seri yang paling banyak diminati oleh investor dengan tingkat penawaran yang masuk mencapai Rp 17,27 triliun.

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat kecenderungan penguatan Rupiah. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.613 – Rp14.650 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,83% - 7,92%.

Maturities (Year) 28-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

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Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0064 88.05 7.91 5328 PTPP02ACN1 idA+ 100.37 6.59 80 FR0075 91.54 5.03 3643 WSKT03BCN2 A-(idn) 95.25 9.57 73 FR0065 88.61 7.95 3295 ADMF03BCN5 idAAA 100.00 7.07 57 FR0063 91.64 4.29 2667 SMSMII01ACN1 idAAA(sy) 99.86 7.60 50 FR0069 100.70 6.69 1844 SMBNII01CN2 idAAA(sy) 101.84 36 FR0072 99.50 8.30 856 SMRA01CN2 idA+ 103.03 8.08 30 FR0056 102.50 7.95 434 WSKT02ACN3 idA- 99.18 7.87 28 FR0074 96.00 6.62 367 BBTN01CN1 idAA+ 96.42 7.60 20 FR0058 102.00 5.10 357 MEDC02ACN4 idA+ 100.16 8.01 20 FR0070 102.00 7.92 344 PNBN01SBCN1 idAA- 101.33 7.54 20 Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 28-Aug Indonesia (JCI) 6043 16.68 0.28% -4.92% 28-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1827 15.30 0.84% 1.67% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1718 0.91 0.05% -2.03% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3248 21.93 0.68% -4.6% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 28352 80.35 0.28% -5.2% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22813 13.83 0.06% 0.21% 10-Year 2.88 2.85 2.83 2.96 Shanghai 2778 -2.92 -0.10% -16.00% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 26064 14.38 0.06% 5.44% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7617 39.73 0.52% -0.92% UK 1.45 1.28 1.27 1.33 DAX 12527 -10.89 -0.09% -3.0% Germany 0.38 0.38 0.33 0.44

France 0.72 0.71 0.67 0.73

FX Rate 28-Aug China 3.63 3.63 3.64 3.48

28-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 USD/IDR 14,638 14,593 14,580 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.287 1.289 1.290 Thailand 2.72 2.71 2.74 2.71 USD/JPY 111.2 111.1 110.3 Malaysia 4.03 4.03 4.02 4.07 USD/SGD 1.364 1.362 1.366 Singapore 2.36 2.34 2.39 2.45 USD/THB 32.58 32.53 32.66 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.106 4.095 4.098 INDO-22 3.75 3.76 3.79 3.76 INDO-27 4.33 4.33 4.40 4.29

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.88 4.87 4.96 4.92

Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.28 0.59 0.21 Money Market 28-Aug Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.18 3.12 3.23 28-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.87 2.72 2.75 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 4.75 O/N 5.41 5.41 5.36 5.00 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 118.3 119.8 122.9 1M 6.70 6.70 6.69 6.45

3M 7.12 7.12 7.15 7.09

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.08

28-Aug 42.82 115.31 198.64 3M 2.32 2.32 2.31 2.35

(-1 Day) 44.46 115.77 199.98 6M 2.52 2.52 2.51 2.53 (-1 Week) 44.02 119.87 205.29 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 42.09 111.78 190.61 Deposit 1M 5.78 5.83 5.75 5.74 (-1 Year) 37.89 105.44 174.41 Lending 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.7 Benchmark 28-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield FR0061 98.32 98.31 1 7.52% FR0059 94.35 94.30 5 7.91% FR0074 94.53 94.43 10 8.16% FR0072 99.03 98.91 12 8.35% Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield

Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of August 27, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 21-Aug-18 23-Aug-18 24-Aug-18 27-Aug-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 590.74 573.64 588.40 578.20

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 106.75 121.12 111.62 115.43

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 113.5 113.4 113.3 113.3

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 189.9 190.0 190.7 190.4

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 846.84 847.37 847.52 846.84

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 209.34 209.37 209.86 209.71

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.77 63.77 63.80 63.79

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.13 132.10 131.82 132.80

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Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 28-Aug-2018

Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps)

FR0048 15-Sep-18 0.05 9.000% 100.19 4.55% 100.20 -1.2

FR0069 15-Apr-19 0.63 7.875% 100.75 6.61% 100.81 -5.9

FR0036 15-Sep-19 1.05 11.500% 104.58 6.89% 104.58 0.0

FR0031 15-Nov-20 2.22 11.000% 107.82 7.10% 107.82 0.1

FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.80 12.800% 113.71 7.28% 113.75 -4.6

FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.88 8.250% 102.30 7.34% 102.27 3.3

FR0061 15-May-22 3.72 7.000% 98.32 7.52% 98.31 1.0

FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.80 12.900% 117.06 7.63% 117.06 0.0

FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.88 10.250% 108.13 7.78% 108.15 -1.8

FR0063 15-May-23 4.72 5.625% 91.90 7.71% 91.82 8.4

FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.88 9.500% 107.00 7.75% 106.50 50.0

FR0039 15-Aug-23 4.97 11.750% 115.91 7.82% 115.88 2.8

FR0070 15-Mar-24 5.55 8.375% 102.81 7.74% 102.81 0.0

FR0044 15-Sep-24 6.05 10.000% 110.06 7.87% 110.19 -12.1

FR0040 15-Sep-25 7.05 11.000% 116.34 7.93% 116.49 -14.7

FR0037 15-Sep-26 8.05 12.000% 123.89 7.93% 123.84 5.2

FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.05 8.375% 102.64 7.93% 102.52 11.1

FR0059 15-May-27 8.72 7.000% 94.35 7.91% 94.30 5.3

FR0042 15-Jul-27 8.88 10.250% 114.23 7.98% 114.29 -5.9

FR0047 15-Feb-28 9.47 10.000% 112.95 8.02% 113.02 -6.9

FR0064 15-May-28 9.72 6.125% 88.18 7.89% 88.08 10.7

FR0071 15-Mar-29 10.55 9.000% 106.68 8.05% 106.63 4.9

FR0052 15-Aug-30 11.97 10.500% 118.30 8.08% 118.23 7.5

FR0073 15-May-31 12.72 8.750% 104.84 8.13% 104.77 6.4

FR0054 15-Jul-31 12.89 9.500% 110.53 8.16% 110.46 6.6

FR0058 15-Jun-32 13.81 8.250% 102.00 8.01% 99.11 289.0

FR0074 15-Aug-32 13.98 7.500% 94.53 8.16% 94.43 9.6

FR0065 15-May-33 14.72 6.625% 87.92 8.04% 87.93 -0.8

FR0068 15-Mar-34 15.56 8.375% 101.00 8.26% 101.00 -0.1

FR0072 15-May-36 17.73 8.250% 99.03 8.35% 98.91 11.7

FR0045 15-May-37 18.73 9.750% 112.13 8.45% 112.127 0.0

FR0075 15-May-38 138.47 7.500% 91.92 8.34% 91.93 -1.3

FR0050 15-Jul-38 19.89 10.500% 121.00 8.32% 121.00 0.0

FR0057 15-May-41 22.73 9.500% 109.20 8.57% 109.20 0.0

FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.65 6.375% 78.46 8.50% 78.11 34.8

FR0067 15-Jul-43 24.90 8.750% 101.90 8.56% 101.90 0.0

FR0076 15-May-48 29.73 7.375% 88.48 8.52% 88.68 -20.6

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Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (August 27 - August 31 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

31 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Jul-18 - 5.9% -

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

27 Ifo Business Climate Germany Aug-18 103.8 101.7 102.5

28 Goods Trade Balance Adv. US Jul-18 - USD -68.3 billion -

29 Economic Growth Rate 2nd est. (QoQ) US Quarter-II - 2.2% 4.1%

29 Crude Oil Inventory US Aug 24 - 2018 Week Ended, - -5.84 million barrel 0.71 million barrel

30 Unemployment Rate Germany Aug-18 - 5.2% 5.2%

30 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Aug 18-2018 - 1727 thousand 1725 thousand

31 Unemployment Rate Japan Jul-18 - 2.4% 2.4%

31 NBS Manufacturing PMI China Aug-18 - 51.2 51.5

31 Inflation Rate Flash. (YoY) Euro Area Aug-18 - 2.1% 2.0%

31 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Jul-18 - 8.3% 8.4%

30 Business Confidence Euro Area Aug-18 - 1.29 1.25

30 Inflation Rate Prel. (YoY) Germany Aug-18 - 2.0% 1.8%

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PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

Head Office

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DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.

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Debt Sales

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Debt Sales

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Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

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Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

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