Global Economic Assessment 2020
Grafik 3.1 7 Days Moving Average Kasus Baru COVID-19 Global Graph 3.2 Global COVID-19 Cases (7-Day Moving Average)
Grafik 3.2 Mobilitas Masyarakat Global
Graph 3.1 7 Days Moving Average Kasus Baru COVID-19 Global
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
2 Apr 20 11 May 20 6 Jun 20 2 Jul 20 28 Jul 20 23 Aug 20 18 Sep 20 14 Oct 20 9 Nov 20 5 Dec 20 31 Dec 20
Afrika Asia Eropa Amerika
America
Sumber: ourworldindata.org | Source: ourworldindata.org
Europe Asia Africa
21 Feb 20 14 Mar 20 5 Apr 20 27 Apr 20 19 May 20 10 Jun 20 2 Jul 20 24 Jul 20 15 Aug 20 6 Sep 20 28 Sep 20 20 Oct 20 11 Nov 20 3 Dec 20 25 Dec 20
-20 - 40 -60 0 20 40
Sumber: Google Mobility Report | Source: Google Mobility Report
Jepang Inggris India Amerika
United States India
United Kingdom
Japan
Perancis
France
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20
60 50 40 30 20 0
Grafik 3.3 PMI Manufaktur Negara Utama Dunia
Graph 3.3 World's Major Country Manufacturing PMI Grafik 3.4 Inflasi Negara Utama Dunia Graph 3.4 Inflation in Major Global Countries
% yoy 8 6 4 2 0 -2
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20
Sumber: IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit
Tiongkok Perancis Inggris Amerika
United States
United Kingdom France
China
India
India
Jepang
Japan
Tiongkok Perancis Inggris Amerika
United States
United Kingdom France
China
India
India
Jepang
Japan
Given compressed global demand, international commodity prices decreased by an average of 3.5% (yoy) in 2020. The prices of WTI and Brent crude slid 25.5%
(yoy) and 21.5% (yoy) respectively, contrasting the price of gold, as a safe-haven asset, which gained 25% (yoy).
Seiring pelemahan permintaan global, harga komoditas secara umum di 2020 melemah sebesar 3,5% yoy. Harga minyak WTI dan Brent masing-masing terpantau melemah sebesar 20,5% yoy dan 21,5% yoy.
Sementara itu, harga komoditas emas sebagai safe haven asset terpantau menguat sebesar 25% yoy.
Untuk meredam tekanan ekonomi yang disebabkan oleh pandemi tersebut, berbagai otoritas moneter dan fiskal dunia mengeluarkan serangkaian kebijakan akomodatif seperti penurunan suku bunga, kebijakan stimulus, dan relaksasi ketentuan di sektor jasa keuangan.
Monetary and fiscal authorities globally issued various accommodative policies, including lower interest rates, massive stimuli and looser financial services sector regulations.
Tabel 3.2 Kebijakan Fiskal dan Moneter Negara Utama Table 3.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Major Global Countries
Amerika Serikat | United States
1. Paket stimulus Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economy Security Act senilai USD2,3 triliun
Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act worth USD2.3 trillion 2. Paket stimulus Paycheck Protection Program and Healthcare Enhancement Act senilai USD483 miliar
Paycheck Protection Program and Healthcare Enhancement Act worth USD483 billion
3. Paket stimulus Coronavirus Preparedness dan Response Supplemental Appropriations Act senilai USD8,3 miliar
Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act worth USD8.3 billion
4. Presiden AS menyetujui stimulus Coronavirus Relief senilai USD877 miliar termasuk didalamnya penambahan unemployment benefit USD300 per minggu dan bantuan langsung tunai USD600 per individu
US President approved a Coronavirus Relief Package worth USD877 billion, including additional unemployment compensation of USD300 per week and
direct cash payments totalling USD600 per individual
1. Menurunkan suku bunga acuan 150 bps Lowering the reference rate by 150 basis points
2. Melakukan pembelian obligasi sejumlah yang dibutuhkan Purchasing bonds as required
3. Ekspansi overnight & term repo Expanding overnight and term repo
4. Menurunkan bunga discount window lending Lowering discount window lending rate
5. Menurunkan biaya swap lines dengan bank-bank sentral utama dunia Reducing the cost of swap lines with other major central banks
6. Mengaktivasi beberapa fasilitas untuk mendukung aliran pendanaan untuk korporasi, Pemda, dealer dan IJK lainnya
Activating several facilities to support fund flows to the corporate sector, local governments, dealers and other financial services institutions
7. Menghimbau lembaga-lembaga simpanan untuk memanfaatkan capital buffer mereka untuk dipinjamkan kepada debitur-debitur terdampak COVID-19.
Urging deposit institutions to utilise their capital buffers for lending to borrowers impacted by COVID-19
2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0 1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0
BCOM Brent WTI Emas (rhs) Gold (rhs) Grafik 3.5 Harga Komoditas dan Minyak Global
Graph 3.5 International Commodity and Oil Prices
Sumber: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
31 Dec 19 15 Jan 20 30 Jan 20 14 Feb 20 2 Mar 20 17 mar 20 1 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 1 May 20 18 May 20 2 Jun 20 17 Jun 20 2 Jul 20 17 Jul 20 3 Aug 20 18 Aug 20 2 Sep 20 17 Sep 20 2 Oct 20 19 Oct 20 3 Nov 20 18 Nov 20 3 Dec 20 18 Dec 20
100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0
Sumber: BPS
Kebijakan Fiskal
Fiscal policy
Kebijakan Moneter
Monetary policy
Tiongkok | China
Zona Eropa | Europe Zone
Paket stimulus senilai RMB4,6 triliun untuk:
Stimulus package worth RMB4.6 trillion for:
1. Anggaran kontrol dan pencegahan epidemi Epidemic control and prevention budget 2. Produksi alat kesehatan
Production of medical equipment
3. Percepatan penyaluran asuransi pengangguran dan buruh migran Faster disbursement of unemployment and migrant worker insurance 4. Tax relief, penghapusan biaya jaminan sosial dan investasi publik
Tax relief, eliminating social security costs and public investment
1. Ekspansi re-lending dan re-discounting facilities berbunga rendah senilai RMB1,8 triliun
Expanding low-interest re-lending and re-discounting facilities worth RMB1.8 trillion 2. Penurunan suku bunga fasilitas pinjaman 50 bps, suku bunga fasilitas diskonto 25
bps dan penurunan 7 dan 14 days reverse repo rate sebesar 30 bps
Lowering loan facility rates by 50bps, discount facility rates by 25bps, as well as the 7 and 14-day reverse repo rates by 30bps
3. Penurunan suku bunga excess reserve Lowering interest rates on excess reserves
4. Penambahan credit line kepada swasta dan UMKM sebesar RMB350 miliar Increasing credit lines to the private sector and MSMEs by RMB350 billion
1. Paket stimulus untuk National Health Service senilai GBP48,5 miliar National Health Service (NHS) stimulus package worth £48.5 billion
2. Paket stimulus untuk menambah jaring pengaman sosial sebesar GBP8 miliar.
Stimulus package totalling £8 billion for social safety nets 3. Paket stimulus untuk pelaku bisnis senilai GBP29 miliar
Stimulus package targeting businesses worth £29 billion
1. Menurunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 65bps Lowering the reference rates by 65bps
2. Melakukan pembelian obligasi senilai GBP300 miliar Purchasing bonds worth £350 billion
3. Membuat skema pendanaan baru untuk mempercepat transmisi penurunan suku bunga
Creating new funding schemes to accelerate transmission of lower interest rates 1. European Commission (EC) mengeluarkan stimulus senilai EUR87,3 miliar
untuk 16 negara anggota melalui instrumen SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency)
European Commission (EC) issued stimuli worth EUR87.3 billion to 16 member nations through the SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment
2. Para pimpinan Uni Eropa menyepakati paket stimulus Next Generation EU (NGEU) Recovery senilai EUR750 miliar.
Leaders of the European Union agreed the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery instrument worth EUR750 billion
3. Paket stimulus EC senilai EUR540 miliar melalui European Stability Mechanism EC stimulus package worth EUR540 billion through the European Stability Mechanism
4. Jaminan Pemerintah untuk European Investment Bank senilai EUR25 miliar untuk pembiayaan untuk korporasi danUKM
Government guarantees for the European Investment Bank worth EUR25 billion for corporate and SME financing
5. EU Budget senilai EUR37 miliar untuk mendukung UMKM dan pasar tenaga kerja
EU Budget worth EUR37 billion to support MSMEs and the labour market
6. EU Solidarity Fund senilai EUR800 juta untuk negara-negara anggota yang paling terdampak COVID-19
EU Solidarity Fund worth EUR800 million for members most severely stricken by COVID-19
1. Pembelian surat berharga EUR120 miliar hingga akhir 2020 Purchasing securities worth EUR120 billion until the end of 2020
2. Penambahan pembelian sekuritas sektor swasta dan sektor publik senilai E UR750 miliar (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). Pada Juni 2020, PEPP ditambah menjadi EUR1,35 triliun. Pada Desember 2020, PEPP kembali ditambah menjadi EUR1,85 triliun.
Additional purchases of private and public sector securities worth EUR750 billion (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program PEPP). In June 2020, the PEPP was
increased to EUR1.35 trillion and again in December 2020 to EUR1.85 trillion 3. Relaksasi ketentuan agunan refinancing operations (TLTRO, MRO)
Relaxing regulations concerning refinancing operations (TLTRO, MRO) 4. Relaksasi ketentuan prudensial perbankan
Relaxing prudential banking regulations
Inggris | United Kingdom Kebijakan Fiskal
Fiscal policy
Kebijakan Moneter
Monetary policy
1. Emergency Economic Package senilai JPY117,1 triliun untuk penanganan penyebaran COVID-19, jaminan sosial
Government of Japan adopted the Emergency Economic Package Against COVID-19 of ¥117.1 trillion to break domestic chain of transmission, social security 2. Supplementary Budget senilai JPY117 triliun untuk bantuan langsung kepada RT, pelaku bisnis dan Pemerintah Daerah
Supplementary Budget worth ¥117.1 trillion with direct support to households, businesses and local governments.
3. Pada 8/12, Pemerintah mengeluarkan paket stimulus Comprehensive Economic Measures to Secure People’s Lives and Livelihoods toward Relief and Hope sebesar JPY73,6 triliun
On 8th December 2020, Government of Japan adopted the Comprehensive Economic Measures to Secure People's Lives and Livelihoods toward Relief and
Hope worth ¥73.6 trillion
4. Berkontribusi pada program stimulus IMF Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust senilai GBP150 juta dan Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust senilai GBP2,2 miliar
Contributions to the IMF Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust worth £150 million and Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust worth £2.2 billion
5. Pada 25/11, Pemerintah merilis laporan Spending Review 2020, dimana untuk FY 2020-2021 alokasi anggaran COVID-19 diperkirakan sebesar GBP280 miliar dan untuk FY 2021-2022 alokasi anggaran COVID-19 sebesar GBP55 miliar
On 25th November 2020, the UK Government released its Spending Review 2020, containing a COVID-19 budget allocation of £280 billion for FY2020-2021 and £55 billion for FY2021-2022
4. Menurunkan countercyclical buffer rate menjadi 0% dari 2%
Lowering the countercyclical buffer rate to 0% from 2%
5. Bersama bank-bank sentral utama dunia lain menambah likuiditas USD melalui fasilitas swap
Increasing USD liquidity through swap facilities with other major central banks 6. Pemerintah dan perusahaan pemberi kerja berbagi pembayaran gaji pekerja yang
work from home
UK government and businesses sharing burden of payroll cost for work from home and furloughed staff
1. BoJ menambah kepemilikan JGB, ETF dan J-REIT, menambah pembeli commercial paper
Increasing JGB, ETF and J-REIT purchases, and purchases of commercial paper 2. Menambah likuiditas USD melalui fasilitas swap berbunga rendah dengan berkoordinasi bersama bank-bank sentral utama dunia
Increasing USD liquidity through lower pricing on standard swap facilities in coordination with other major central banks
3. Jepang berkontribusi dalam program stimulus IMF Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust dengan nilai kontribusi USD100 juta dan Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust senilai SDR3,6 juta
Contributing to the IMF Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust worth USD100 million and Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust worth SDR3.6 million
4. Memperluas fasilitas pinjaman lunak terutama untuk UMKM yang terdampak coronavirus melalui Japan Finance Corporation.
Expanding soft loan facilities to MSMEs impacted by COVID-19 through the Japan Finance Corporation
5. FSA meminta bank-bank untuk tidak melakukan pembobotan risiko terhadap pinjaman yang dijamin oleh skema penjaminan publik
FSA reassured banks that they can assign zero risk weights to loans guaranteed under public guarantee schemes
Jepang | Japan
Sumber: IMF Policy Responses to COVID-19 Source: IMF Policy Responses to COVID-19
Kebijakan Fiskal
Fiscal policy
Kebijakan Moneter
Monetary policy
Penemuan vaksin COVID-19 menjadi titik cerah di tengah pemburukan kasus COVID-19 global. Di akhir 2020, beberapa pengembang vaksin berhasil merampungkan uji vaksinnya dan mengumumkan tingkat efikasi. Pfizer, Moderna, dan AstraZeneca mengumumkan tingkat efikasinya masing-masing sebesar 95%, 94%, dan 70%. Sementara, Sinovac memiliki tingkat efikasi yang berbeda di tiap negara yang dilakukan uji coba, namun masih di atas ketentuan minimum tingkat efikasi WHO sebesar 50%. Hingga akhir Desember 2020, sebanyak 6,1 juta dosis vaksin telah disuntikkan ke seluruh dunia.
The discovery of COVID-19 vaccines was a turning point amidst increasing global COVID-19 cases. At the end of 2020, several vaccine developers had completed clinical trials and published efficacy rates. Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca announced efficacy rates of 95%, 94% and 70% respectively. Meanwhile, Sinovac achieved a different efficacy rate in each country where clinical trials were conducted, yet remained above the 50% minimum set by the WHO. At the end of December 2020, 6.1 million vaccine doses had been administered.
Grafik 3.6 7 Days Moving Average Total Vaksinasi Global
Graph 3. 6 7 Total Global Vaccinations (7-Day Moving Average)
Sumber: ourworldindata.org Source: ourworldindata.org
19 Dec 20 20 Dec 20 21 Dec 20 22 Dec 20 23 Dec 20 24 Dec 20 25 Dec 20 26 Dec 20 27 Dec 20 28 Dec 20 29 Dec 20 30 Dec 20 31 Dec 20
1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Juta Dosis Million Doses
AsiaAsia Eropa
Europe
Amerika
America