2011 -50
50
% yoy % yoy
5,02
0
-10 10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -2,07
Pengeluaran Konsumsi RT Household Consumption
Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah
Government Consumption Ekspor
Export
PMTDB PMTDB Impor
Import
Grafik 3.9 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Graph 3.9 National Economic Growth in Indonesia
Sumber: BPS-Statistics Indonesia | Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Surplus / Defisit (rhs)
Surplus / Deficit Ekspor yoy
Export yoy Impor yoy
Import yoy 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% yoy
20 0 -20 -40
USD Milliar
20
0
-20
Grafik 3.10 Neraca Dagang Indonesia Graph 3.10 ndonesia Trade Balance
Sumber: BPS | Source: BPS PDB (rhs)
GDP (rhs)
Neraca dagang Indonesia pada 2020 mencatatkan surplus sebesar USD21,7 miliar (2019: defisit USD3,6 miliar), dengan ekspor dan impor masing-masing terkontraksi sebesar 2,6% yoy dan 17,3% yoy. Kontraksi impor yang lebih dalam mengindikasikan pelemahan permintaan domestik. Selain itu, pelemahan permintaan domestik juga terkonfirmasi dari pelemahan indikator-indikator sektor riil. Inflasi headline dan inflasi inti terus bergerak dalam tren menurun.
Inflasi headline di 2020 turun menjadi 1,68% yoy (2019: 2,72% yoy), dengan inflasi inti yang juga turun menjadi 1,6% yoy (2019: 3,02% yoy).
Indeks penjualan riil dan indeks keyakinan konsumen juga bergerak dalam tren penurunan di sepanjang 2020. Indeks penjualan riil pada Desember 2020 tercatat sebesar 190,1 (Des 19: 235,1) dan indeks keyakinan konsumen Desember 2020 tercatat sebesar 96,5 (Des 19: 126,4). Penjualan kendaraan bermotor pada 2020 juga melanjutkan penurunan menjadi -48,4% yoy (2019: -10,5% yoy).
Sementara itu, indikator Markit PMI manufaktur di akhir 2020 menunjukkan perbaikan di sisi produksi, setelah sempat menyentuh titik terendah pada April 2020 sebesar 27,5. Di Desember 2020, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia sudah kembali memasuki zona ekspansi di level 51,3 (Desember 2019: 49,5).
After recording a USD3.6 billion deficit in 2019, Indonesia's trade balance in 2020 amassed a USD21.7 billion surplus, with exports and imports contracting respectively by 2.16% (yoy) and 17.3% (yoy). The deeper import contraction pointed to weak domestic demand, which was also confirmed by other real sector indicators. Headline inflation and core inflation tracked downward trends, reaching 1.68% (yoy) and 1.6% (yoy) respectively in 2020 compared with 2.72%
(yoy) and 3.02% (yoy) in 2019.
Moreover, the Real Sales Index (RSI) and Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) retreated throughout 2020, sinking to respective levels of 190.1 and 96.5 in December 2020 from 235.1 and 126.4 in December 2019. Motor vehicle sales slumped into a deeper -48.4% (yoy) contraction in 2020 after contracting -10.5% (yoy) in 2019. In contrast, the Markit Manufacturing PMI showed early signs of improvement on the production side towards the end of 2020 after sinking to its nadir in April 2020 at 27.5. In December 2020, Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI moved above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction at a level of 51.3 compared with 49.5 in December 2019.
Dev 18 Feb 19 Apr 19 Jun 19 Aug 19 Oct 19 Dec 19 Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20
8 6 4 2 0 -2
4 3 2 1 0
%yoy %yoy
IHK (Rhs)
CPI (Rhs) Adm Price
Adm Price Vol Food
Vol Food Inti (Rhs)
Core (Rhs) Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen
Consumer Confidence Index
Grafik 3.11. Tingkat Inflasi Indonesia Graph 3.11. Indonesia's Inflation Rate
Sumber: Bank Indonesia | Source: Bank Indonesia
Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20
160
110
60
300 250 200 150
Indeks Penjualan Riil (rhs)
Real Sales Index Sumber: BPS | Source: BPS
Grafik 3.12. Indeks Penjualan Riil dan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen Graph 3.12. Real Sales Index and Consumer Confidence Index
Grafik 3.13 Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia Graph 3.13 Indonesia’s Balance of Payments
Sumber: Bank Indonesia | Source: Bank Indonesia
Transaksi Berjalan
Current Account
Neraca Keseluruhan
Overall Balance
Transaksi Modal dan finansial
Capital and Financial Account
Cadangan Devisa (rhs)
Reserve Assets (rhs) 60
40 20 0 -20 -40
150
100
50
0
Miliar USD USD Miliar
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Seiring perbaikan kinerja sektor eksternal, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia pada 2020 menyempit menjadi USD4,74 miliar (2019: defisit USD30,28 miliar) atau sebesar 0,45% PDB (2019: 2,71% PDB). Secara umum, neraca pembayaran di 2020 masih mencatatkan surplus sebesar USD2,59 miliar (2019: USD4,67 miliar). Cadangan devisa Indonesia di 2020 juga terpantau meningkat menjadi USD135,8 miliar (2019: USD129,1 miliar).
Mirroring external sector gains, Indonesia’s current account deficit in 2020 narrowed to USD4.74 billion, equivalent to 0.45% of GDP, compared with USD30.28 billion in 2019 (2.71% of GDP). Overall, Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) recorded a USD2.59 billion surplus in 2020, down from USD4.67 billion in 2019, while the position of reserve assets at the end of 2020 increased to USD135.8 billion from USD129.1 billion in 2019.
Perkembangan Pasar Keuangan Global dan Domestik
Pasar keuangan global secara umum menguat di 2020 seiring meningkatnya likuiditas global yang didorong oleh kebijakan akomodatif otoritas moneter dan fiskal dunia yakni berupa penurunan suku bunga, stimulus yang masif, dan berbagai pelonggaran ketentuan di sektor jasa keuangan.
Pasar Saham Global dan Domestik
Mayoritas pasar saham global bergerak menguat di tahun 2020, seiring kebijakan akomodatif otoritas moneter dan fiskal dunia. Peningkatan likuiditas global mendorong aksi risk on investor di pasar saham. Kendati demikian, IHSG di 2020 melemah sebesar 5,09% yoy di level 5959,1, dengan investor nonresiden mencatatkan net sell sebesar Rp47,8 triliun (2019: net buy Rp49,1 triliun). Kontraksi terdalam terjadi pada triwulan I-2020, dimana IHSG sempat menyentuh level terendahnya selama 2020 yaitu sebesar 3937,6, seiring pemberlakuan Kebijakan PSBB oleh pemerintah di akhir Maret 2020.
Pasar Surat Utang Global dan Domestik
Mayoritas pasar surat utang global di 2020 terpantau menguat seiring dengan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh mayoritas bank sentral dunia.
Adapun, di pasar surat utang domestik, yield surat utang pemerintah Indonesia (SBN) tenor 10 tahun turun 107,8 bps sepanjang tahun 2020 dengan investor nonresiden mencatatkan net sell sebesar Rp87,95 triliun.
Global and Domestic Financial Market Developments
In general, international financial markets strengthened in 2020 in line with loose liquidity conditions stemming from the accommodative global monetary and fiscal policy response in the form of low interest rates, massive stimuli and the relaxation of financial services sector regulations.
Global and Domestic Stock Markets
Globally, most stock markets rallied in 2020 on the back of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. Loose global liquidity conditions spurred risk-on actions amongst investors in the stock markets. Nevertheless, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in 2020 slumped 5.09% (yoy) to a level of 5,959.1, with non-resident investors booking a net sell totalling Rp47.8 trillion to reverse the net buy of Rp49.1 trillion recorded in 2019. The contraction peaked in the first quarter of 2020 when the JCI closed at its lowest level in 2020, namely 3,937.6, after the Government introduced large-scale social restrictions at the end of March 2020.
Global and Domestic Bond Markets
Globally, most bond markets in 2020 were observed to strengthen in line with reference rate reductions undertaken by the majority of central banks. At home, the benchmark 10-year SBN yield in the domestic bond market fell 107.8 basis points during 2020, with non-resident investors booking a net sell totalling Rp87.95 trillion.
Nilai tukar global di 2020, termasuk ASEAN-5, secara umum bergerak menguat terhadap USD. Namun demikian, Rupiah terdepresiasi sebesar 1,13% yoy ke level Rp14.040/USD di tahun 2020.
Global exchange rates in 2020, including ASEAN-5, trended towards broad-based appreciation against the US dollar. In contrast, the rupiah depreciated 1.13% (yoy) to a level of Rp14,040 per US dollar in 2020.
8,0 3,5
29,1 -8,6
-8,3
-5,1
-3,4 -11,8
-14,3
2,4
15,8 13,9
15,8
30.8 16,0
4,8
16,3 7,2
14,1
% yoy MOEX
Brazil IBrX XU100 PCOMP SET KLCI SENSEX JCI Shanghai EM Hangseng STI KOSPI Nikkei FTSE 100 DAX S&P500 DJIA AE
-20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0
Grafik 3.14 Perkembangan Pasar Saham Global Graph 3.14 Global Stock Market Performance
Sumber: Bloomberg | Source: Bloomberg Sumber: Bloomberg | Source: Bloomberg
Grafik 3.15 Perkembangan Yield 10Y Pasar Surat Utang Global
Graph 3.15 Benchmark 10-Year Bond Market Yields Globally RUS
BRA TUR PHL THA MYS IND IDN CHN HKG SG KOR JPN UK EU USA (5Y) USA
-32,0
-143,1
-33,0 -63,7 -66,0 -107,8
-104,3 -89,8
-62,9 -38,8 -132,4
-99,8
17,5 51,0
3,0
5,0 4,3
-200 -100 0 100
% bps
Aliran Dana Nonresiden dan Nilai Tukar
Sepanjang 2020, investor nonresiden secara umum mencatatkan net sell di pasar saham dan SBN kawasan ASEAN-5. Filipina merupakan satu-satunya negara ASEAN yang mencatatkan net buy yakni sebesar USD1,06 miliar.
Sementara itu, Indonesia mencatatkan net sell sebesar USD7,90 miliar, kedua terbesar setelah Thailand sebesar USD9,29 miliar.
Non-Resident Capital Flows and Exchange Rates
Overall, non-resident investors in 2020 booked a net sell in the stock market and SBN market in the ASEAN-5 region. The Philippines was the only ASEAN country to record a net buy, totalling USD1.06 billion, while Indonesia recorded a net sell of USD7.90 billion, second only to Thailand at USD9.29 billion.
% yoy
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20
Miliar USD USD Billion
Grafik 3.16 Aliran Dana Nonresiden di Pasar Keuangan Kawasan ASEAN-5 Graph 3.16 Non-Resident Capital Flows in ASEAN-5 Financial Markets
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20
Indonesia
Indonesia Malaysia
Malaysia Filipina
Philipphines Thailand
Thailand Vietnam
Vietnam Sumber: Bloomberg | Source: Bank Bloomberg
Rubel RealLira PesoBaht Ringgit Rupee Rupiah YuanHKD KRWSGD GBPYen EuroDXY
-16,1 -22,6
-20,0
-0,9 -2,3-1,1
-6,7
5,5 1,7
6,7 0,5
1,8 6,4 5,2 3,1
8,9
Sumber: Reuters | Source: Reuters
-30,0 -20,0 -10,0 0,0 10,0 20,0
Grafik 3.17 Perkembangan Pasar Nilai Tukar Global Graph 3.17 Global Exchange Rates
2017Des
Indikator 2016 2018 Indicator
Des 2019
Des 2020
Des yoy
Des ‘19 Des ‘20 Des
Total Aset (Rp Miliar) 6,729,799 7,387,634 8,068,346 8,562,974 9,177,754 6.13% 7.18%
Kredit (Rp Miliar) 4,377,195 4,737,944 5,294,882 5,616,992 5,481,560 6.08% -2.41%
DPK (Rp Miliar) Giro (Rp Miliar) Tabungan (Rp Miliar) Deposito (Rp Miliar)
4,836,758 5,289,377 5,630,448 5,998,648 6,665,390 6.54% 11.11%
1,124,235 1,233,480 1,315,034 1,465,848 1,687,135 11.47% 15.10%
1,551,809 1,701,224 1,825,259 1,945,185 2,173,501 6.57% 11,74%
2,160,714 2,354,673 2,490,155 2,587,615 2,804,755 3,91% 8,39%
CAR (%) 22.71 23.18 23.42 23.31 23.81 (10) 50
ROA (%) 2.17 2.38 2.50 2.44 1.59 (6) (86)
NIM / NOM (%) 5.47 5.15 5.00 4.80 4.32 (20) (47)
BOPO (%) 82.85 79.28 78.33 79.58 86.55 126 696
NPL / NPF Gross (%) 2.93 2.59 2.37 2.53 3.06 16 53
NPL / NPF Net(%) 1.24 1.17 1.04 1.19 0.98 15 (21)
LDR / FDR (%) 90.50 89.57 94.04 93.64 82.24 (40) (1,140)
Total Assets (Rp billions) Loans (Rp billions) Deposits (Rp billions) Demand Deposits (Rp billions)
Savings Deposits (Rp billions) Term Deposits (Rp billions)
CAR (%) ROA (%) NIM / NOM (%) BOPO Efficiency Ratio (%) Gross NPL/NFL (%) Net NPL/NFL (%) LDR / FDR (%)
Tabel 3.3 Kondisi Bank Umum Tabel 3.3 General Banking industry Conditions
Perkembangan BUK
Pada akhir 2020, ketahanan BUK cukup solid tercermin dari CAR sebesar 23,89% masih jauh di atas threshold. Fungsi intermediasi BUK menurun namun masih terjaga tercermin dari LDR sebesar 82,54% disertai dengan kondisi likuiditas perbankan yang memadai terefleksi dari rasio AL/NCD dan AL/DPK yang masing-masing tercatat 142,04% dan 30,55%, atau jauh di atas threshold 50% dan 10%.
Conventional Commercial Banks
At the end of 2020, conventional commercial banks maintained solid resilience, as evidenced by a high Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 23.89%, well above the threshold. The bank intermediation function declined but a loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 82.54% was indicative of sound conditions, accompanied by loose liquidity in the banking system, with the ratios of liquid assets to non-core deposits and liquid assets to deposits remaining high above the respective thresholds of 50% and 10%
at 142.04% and 30.55%.