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تأثیر درجه‌ی رقابت در سیستم بانکی و الزامات سرمایه‌ای بر میزان ریسک‌پذیری بانک‌های ایران

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ﺗﺄ ﺮﻴﺛ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺣﺭ ﺭﻮﻤﻴﺗ

1

،*

ﺍﺭﺁﺮﻬﻣ ﻦﺴﺤﻣ ،2

ﻮﻠﻏﺍﺮﭼ ﻲﻨﺴﺤﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺍ ﻱﺮﻛﺎﺷ ﻲﺘﻴﮔ ،3

4

1 . ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،

trahmani@ut.ac.ir

2 . ﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،

mmehrara@ut.ac.ir

3 . ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ

،

amohseni@ut.ac.ir

4 . ﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠ

gitishakeri@ut.ac.ir

:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 07

/ 03 / 1396 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 28

/ 06 / 1396

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘـﺸﮔ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻧﻼﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ 1385 ﺎﺗ 1394 ﻲﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ

، ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺎـﻫﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ،ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺭﺩ .ﺩ

ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ، ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ،ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺖﺳ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻬﮕﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ،

ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻥﺁ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ،ﺎﻫ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺍﺭ ﻮﺷ

.ﺩ

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL

، G11 ،G21 ،G32 ،E44 C23

ژﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ :ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎـﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ،ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ،ﻱﺍ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ،ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ،ﻲﻜﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ

* . ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻱ

:ﺱﺎﻤﺗ 09123154382

(2)

1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻲــﺑ ﻞــﻳﻻﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲــﻜﻳ ﻩﺰــﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻪــﺑ ﻁﻮــﺑﺮﻣ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎــﺑ ﻢﺘــﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﺗﺎــﺒﺛ

ﻱ ﻚــﻧﺎﺑ ﺎــﻫ ﻱﺍﺮــﺑ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﺒـﺳ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻥﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺎﻫ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻤﻧ ﻞﻤﺤﺘﻣ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

، ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻱ

ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻩﺎﮔﺪـﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﻭﻼـﻋ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ . ﺮﺛﺄـﺘﻣ

،ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻦﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺐﺒﺳ

ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﻥﺪـﻳﺩ ﺐﻴﺳﺁ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﺖـﺴﻜﺷ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﺒﺣﺎﺻ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻄ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻲﻤﻬﺒﻣ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ،ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺭﻭﺎﺘﺳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ،ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ،ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ

ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻻﺎ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺡﻼـﺻﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭙﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ،ﻱﺍ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻱ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺍﺭ

ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺏﺮﺨﻣ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭙﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻮﺳ

ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ،

،ﻥﺎﻳﺪـﻤﺣﺍ) ﺩﺎﺘـﺸﻫ ﻪـﻫﺩ ﻞـﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ 1393

؛

ﻦﻴﺘﺳﻮﭘ ،ﻲﭼ 1392 ﻭ ( ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎـﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ

) ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺠﻨﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ (ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﻪﻤﻴﻧ ﻲﻃ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱ

ﻪﻫﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻱ ،ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺩﻮـﻤﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﻴﻧ) ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺎﺘﺸﻫ

1393 ﻪﻣﺎﻨﺸﺨﺑ ﻍﻼﺑﺍ ،ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .(

ﺰﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍ

ﻱﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ 1382

ﻦﻴﻳﺁ) ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ

1382 ،

/ﺐـﻣ 1911 ﻦﻴـﻳﺁ ؛ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖـﻳﺎﻔﻛ )

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ،(ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ 1382

/ﺐـﻣ ، 1966 ﻭ

ﻦﻴﻳﺁ ﻪﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ) ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ،(ﻲـﺘﻟﻭﺩﺮﻴﻏ ﻱ 1382

/ﺐـﻣ ، 1967 ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﻴﺑ ،(

ﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻥﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺖﺳ

(3)

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺐﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻻﺍﺆﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﺕ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺕﺍ

ﻥﺁ ﻪﭼ ،ﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻭ ﻡﻮﺳ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻊـﻤﺟ ﻪـﺑ ،ﻲﻧﺎـﻳﺎﭘ ﺖﻤـﺴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻬﻨـﺸﻴﭘ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ

.ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ 2 - ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺹﻮـﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺍ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

2 - 1 - ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻜﻳﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﻗﺭ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺮﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﻧﺍ ﺰﻴـﺸﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺎـﻳ ﺮﺗﺭﺎـﭼ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ .ﺪﻧﺍ

ﺶﻴـﭘ1

ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﭼﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ

2ﻲﻠﻴﻛ ) 1990 ﺰﺘﻴﻠﮕﻴﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻙﻭﺩﺭﻮﻣ ،ﻦﻤﻠﻫ ﻭ ( )3

2000 ﺑ ( ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﻴ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ

ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﻮﺳ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ

ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ

، ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ

ﺰﻴﺸﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ (ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺁ ﻭ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻱﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﻮﺳ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ)

،ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻧﺎﻣ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻞﺑﺎ

ﻥﺁ ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻲـﻣ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﺎﻫ

ﺭﺩ .ﺪـﻨﻛ

ﻮﻟﻮﻜﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻳﻮﺑ ،ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ )4

2005 ( ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲﻣ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ

ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎـﺑ

ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺩﺎﻧ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ

ﻥﺁ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ

ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻱ

.ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺥﺮﻧ

ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻱ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺎﻫ

1. Chaeter / Franchise Value 2. Keeley

3. Hellman, Murdock & Stiglitz 4. Boyd & De Nicolo

(4)

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘﺯﺎﺑ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻞﺒﻘﺗ ﻥﺁ .ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﺎـﻫ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻣ1

،ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺪﻨﻣﺎﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ

ﺎﻫ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﺏﺬﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ،ﺱﻮﻜﻌﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻡﺍﻭ

ﻮﺷ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ .ﺩ

ﻮـﻟﻮﭘﺭ ﻭ ﺰﻨﻴﺗﺭﺎـﻣ

2

) 2010 (،

،ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ،ﻮﻟﻮﻜﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻳﻮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻱ

3ﺩﻮﺳ ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﻧﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺮﮕﻳﺪـﻜﻳ ﻒﻟﺎـﺨﻣ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱ

ﻤﻋ ﻲﻣ ﻞ ﻥﺁ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻫ

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻥﺎﻨﻳﺮﻓﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

ﻱﻮﺳ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻡﺍﻭ ﺮﺗ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎـﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘﺯﺎﺑ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﺪـﻨﻛ ﻥﺍﺮـﺒﺟ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻫ

ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ،ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﻮﺷ .ﺩ

ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻓﺮﻃ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻱﺮ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

،ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﺸﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺪﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺩﺎـﻗ ،ﻥﺎﮔﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ

ﺖﻧﺍﺭ ﺐﺴﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺰـﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﺮـﺘﻤﻛ ﻲﺗﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎـﻫ

ﻝﺎﺑﺮﻏ ﻱﺮﮔ ﺖﺳﺭﺩ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻡﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺮﮔ ﻭ ﺕﻮﺑ) ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

،4

1993 ﻞـﻴﮔ ﻭ ﻦﻟﺁ ، ،5

2004 ، 2000 .(

ﻮﺗﺮﭘ ﻭ ﻲﻟﺭﻮﺘﻛ )6

2000 ﻲﻣ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ( ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﺗﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰـﻴﻤﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻡﺍﻭ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺚﺤﺑ .ﺪﻧﺯﺍﺩﺮﭙﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ

ﻲﻣ

،ﺮﺗﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﻣ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻱﺮـﺘﻤﻛ ﻱ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

) ﻞﻴﮔ ﻭ ﻦﻟﺁ) ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ 2000

ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻓﺮﻃ ،ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ .((

ﺎـﺑ ،ﺕﺎﺒﺛ–

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺗﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺘﻤﻛ ﻱ ﻥﺎﺳﺁ

،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺗ

ﻒﻟﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺁ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ،ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ،ﻙﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻱ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ

ﻲﮔﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﻨﻳﺍ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺮﺗ

1. Risk-Shifting Effect 2. Martinez & Repullo 3. Margin Effect 4. Boot & Greenbaum 5. Allen & Gale 6. Cetorelli & Pereto

(5)

ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺪﻓﺮﻃ ،ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ .ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ–

ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﻮـﻃ

ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻠﻛ ﺎﻫ

،ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ،ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻱﺮـﺘﻤﻛ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﮕﺘـﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﮕﻧ ﻥﺍ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ

، ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﻱ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ

"

ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺴﻜﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ

1ﺖﺴﻜﺷ

"

ﻲﻣ ﺍﺮﺟﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻴـﺴﺑﻮﺳ گﺭﺰـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺸﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ،ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻱ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﻲـﻣ ﺎـﻫ

ﻮـﺷ ﺩ

ﻦﻴﻜﺸﻴﻣ) ،2

1999 .(

ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻲﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻱﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺡﻭﺮﭼﺎﻣ ،ﻮﻧﻮﻣﺭﺍﺪﺋﻮﺳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ )3

2013 ﺭﺩ (

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ

ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻬﮕﻧ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺑ ﻚﻧﺎ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ

ﺪـﻫﺩ

، ،ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺰﻣﻮـﮔ ،ﻚـﺒﺗ

ﺱﻭﺮﻳﺩﻮﻣ )4

2015 ﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ( ﻪ ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﺎـﺑ ﻱ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﺮﺳﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻛﻮﻛ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﺘﻤﻛ )5

2017 ﺪﻴـﺳﺭ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ( ﻩ ﺍ

ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧ

،ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻮﺷ ﻮﻳﺯﺎﻓ ،ﻚﺒﺗ .ﺩ

ﻭﺮﻴﻳﻮﺟﺎــﻛ ﻭ )6

2012 ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ( ﻱ

ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎــﺸﻧ ﺩﻮــﺧ ﻩ ﺍ

ﻪــﻛ ﺪــﻧ ﻪــﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﺖــﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺎــﻴﻣ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻢﻛ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻚـﻳ

ﺕﻮـﻛﻮﻟ ﻭ ﻱﻭﺮـﻟ .ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺯﺍ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ )7

2017 (،

ﺎـﺑ

ﻚﻴﻤﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺮـﻓ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻞﺋﺎﻗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻞـﻛ8

ﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻪ ﺍ

ﺍﺭ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺮـﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﻧﺎﮔﺍﺪﺟ

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺪﻫﺩ

،ﺖ ﻢﻫ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺎﺒﻗﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺮﻓﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻮـﺋﻻ .ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ )9

2017 (،

ﺭﺩ

1. Too Big or Too Important to Fail 2. Mishkin

3. Soedarmono, Machrouh & Tarazi 4. Tabak, Gomes & Modeiros 5. Kouki & Nasser

6. Tabak, Fazio & Cajuero 7. Leroy & Lucotte 8. Systemic 9. Laura & Shaffer

(6)

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ،ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﺩﺮـﻜﻧ ﺍﺪـﻴﭘ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪـﻧ

) ﻮﻠﺒﻟﺎﻃ 1390 ﺪﻴـﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ( ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩ

ـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎ

ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ، ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻫ

.ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

2 - 2 - ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺍ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺕﻼﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﭙـﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻱ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ ـﻧﺍ

ﻩﺪـﻋﺎﻗ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻡﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮـﭙﺑ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﺎـﻫ ) ﺰﺘﻴﻠﮕﻴﺘـﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻙﻭﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ،ﻦـﻤﻠﻫ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻱ 2000

ﻮـﻟﻮﭘﺭ ﻭ (

) 2004 ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،(

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻥﺁ ﻉ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﻕﻮـﺳ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻬﮕﻧ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ، ﺎـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺑ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨ

ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﻚﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻦـﻤﻠﻫ .ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺽﺮﻌﻣ ﻡﺎﻧ1

ﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻩ

ﺩﻮـﺳ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ،ﻮـﻟﻮﭘﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ .ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﻱ

ﺍﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻬﮕﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻦـﻤﻠﻫ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻬﮕﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ

ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ

ﻚـﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﺏﺍﺬﺟ ﺎﻫ

ﻛ .(ﺰﻴـﺸﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ) ﺪـﻨ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻦﻤـﺳﺎﻫ

)2

2017 (،

ﺎـﺑ

ﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻠﻫ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﺭ

ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﻡﺍﺰـﻟﺍ ﻭ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ

ﻲـﻣ ،ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

،ﺰﻴﺸﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻤﻜﻣ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ،ﻱﺍ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻛ .ﺪﻨ ﻟﺮﻣ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻧﻮﮔﻮﻫ

3ﻚ ) 2017 ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ (

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻥﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪـﻘﻧ ﺕﺎـﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﻱﺍ

ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ .ﺪﻫﺩ

1. Capital At Risk Effect 2. Hasman & Samartín 3. Hugonnier & Morellec

(7)

ﻦﻤﻴﺗ ﻭ ﺖﻠﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ )1

2004 ﻞﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،(

ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺍﻭ2

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺑ ﻣ ﻪ ﻲـﻣ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺏﺬﺟ ﺭﻮﻈﻨ ﻮـﺷ

ﻦﻳﺪـﺑ ﻭ ﺩ

ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

ﻡﺍﻭ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﺨﺳ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﻴﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ

ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺯﻮﻛﺭﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻟﺭﺎﻛ ،ﻦﻟﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ )3

2011 ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،(

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

ﻥﺁ ﺠﻨﻣ ،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺵﻼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺮ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻮﺷ .ﺩ

ﺥﺎﺒﺳﺮﮔ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ )4

2013 ( ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ

ﺯﺍ) ﺪـﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭﺮﭘ ﺶﺨ

ﺯﺍ .(ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺽﺮﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻱﻮﺳ

ﻞـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ

،ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﻲﻓﺎـﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺩﺎـﻗ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮـﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ

ﻡﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ

ﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺩ

.ﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻕﻮﺳ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻞﺑﺎﻨﺷ ﻭ ﺰﻨﻜﻫ )5

2011 (،

ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩ ﺍ

ﺖـﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧ

ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺽﺮﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ،ﻑﺮﻃ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻱﻮـﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻱﺭﺍﺪـﻬﮕﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ،ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺐﻴﻏﺮﺗ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﺩﻮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻡﺍﻭ ﻨﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻡﺍﻭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪ

ﮕﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻩﺰﻴ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﻳﺮﻓﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻮﺷ

ﺩﻮـﺳ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ (ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ) ﺩ

ﭙﺳ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ،ﻩﺩﺮ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﻫﺩ

.(ﺰﻴﺸﻧﺍﺮﻓ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ) ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺎﺗ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﺱﺍﺭﻮﻴـﺳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﺲﻴﻟﺩ ،ﻲﻛﺍﺭﻮﮔﺁ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ )6

2011 (،

ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ

ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻩ ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻪﭼﺮﮔ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ،ﻱﺍ

،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

1. Bolt & Tieman 2. Acceptance Criteria 3. Allen, Carletti & Marquez 4. Gersbach

5. Hakenes & Schnabel 6. Agoraki, Delis & Pasiouras

(8)

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻟﻭ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺮﻴﻳﻮﺟﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻮﻳﺯﺎﻓ ،ﻚﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

)1

2012 ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻪﻛ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺎﺑ

ﻚﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻱﻮـﻗ ،ﻙﺪـﻧﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ، ﺮـﺗ

ﮓﻧﺎﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻜﺳﻭﻮﻨﺗﺍﺭ ،ﻥﻮﻴﻟ .ﺖﺳﺍ )2

2015 (،

ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩ ﺍ

ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﻥﺍﺮـﺤﺑ ﻲﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ

،ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ،ﻥﺁ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ،ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ، ﻱ

ﺎﺑ ﻚـﻧ ﺎـﻫ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻮﺳﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻧﻮﻣﺍﺭﺎﻴﭼ ،ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

)3

2017 ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻩ ﺍ

ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻂﻘﻓ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻡﺎـﻤﺗ ﻑﻼﺧﺮـﺑ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺪـﻴﻔﻣ گﺭﺰـﺑ ﻱ

ﻮــﮕﻧﻭﺩﺍ ﻭ ﺎــﻛﻮﮕﻧﺍ ،ﺭﻭﺩﺍ ،ﻲــﻠﺒﻗ ﺕﺎــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ )4

2017 (،

ــﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻪ ﺍ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰــﻓﺍ ﻪــﻛ ﺪــﻧ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳ .ﺪﻫﺩ ﺱﺎﻧﻮﻴﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻥﺮﺗ ،ﺲﻴﻟﺩ )5

2012 ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ (

ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻩ ﺍ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﺮﻘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ

،ﻱﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ

.ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ 3 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ

ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮــﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ ،ﺖﻤــﺴﻗ ﻦــﻳﺍ ﻝﺪــﻣ

ﺎــﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪــﺑ ﺎــﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎــﺗ ﻱﺎــﻫ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻭﺎﺘﺸﮔ ﺘﻓﺎﻳ

6ﻪ ﺪـﻧﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺪـﻧﻼﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺮﮔﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ

، 7

ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 1385 ﺎﺗ 1394 ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎـﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ

ﻱ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺬﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ،ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻳ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﺮﺗ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ

ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮـﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﺖﺴﭘ ،ﻪﭙﺳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ،ﻲﻠﻣ ،ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﻱ ،ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ،ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎـﺸﻛ ،ﻥﺪـﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ،ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ

،ﺩﺎﮔﺭﺎـﺳﺎﭘ ،ﻥﺎﻣﺎـﺳ ،ﻦﻳﺮﻓﺁﺭﺎﻛ ،ﻥﺎﻴﺳﺭﺎﭘ ،ﻦﻳﻮﻧﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻩﺎﻓﺭ ،ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ،ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،ﺖﻠﻣ ،ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺗ ﺖـﻤﻜﺣ ،ﺭﺎﺼﻧﺍ ،ﻱﺩ ،ﺮﻬﺷ ،ﺎﻨﻴﺳ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ

ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ،ﻥﺎـﻴﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ

ﻭ ﻦﻴﻣﺍﻮـﻗ ،ﻱﺮﮕـﺷﺩﺮﮔ ،ﻦﻴـﻣﺯ

1. Tabak, Fazio & Cajuero 2. Laeven, Ratnovski & Tong 3. Chiaramonte & Casu 4. Oduor, Ngoka & Odongo 5. Delis, Tran & Tsionas

6. Generalized Method Of Moments (GMM) 7. Blundell and Bond System Estimator

(9)

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣﺭﻭﺎﺧ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ

ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﺯﺍ ،ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺗ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻂﺳﻮ ﻪﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺸﺘﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ

ﻡﺮﻧ ﺎﺘﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ 141

.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ

، ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ ﻱ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ

ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺎﻳ ﺎﻫﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ

ﻲـﻣ ﻧﺍﺩ .ﺪـﻨ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ

ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﻮﻃ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ،ﻝﻮـﻤﻌﻣ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨ ﻮﺷ

ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ .ﺩ ﻱ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻴﻓﺮﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،2

- ﻦﻤـﺷﺮﻴﻫ ،3

ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱ ﺱﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺰﻧﺎـﭘH

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ4

5ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ

، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻞـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ،ﺪﻧﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ،ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭH

ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗ

ﻡﻭﺩ ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ .ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻻ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ، ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ .ﺖﺳﺎﻫ

6

ﻥﻮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻨﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ،7

ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ .ﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱ

ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱ

ﻲﻃ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻝﺎـﺳ

ﺎـﻫ ـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ،ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ،ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ .8

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﻱ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ،ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ

ﺰﻠﻤﻛ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ9

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮـﺳ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ،

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ، ﻱﻭﺭﺍﺮـﻓ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ... ﻭ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻨـﺷﺎﺑ

1. Stata

2. Concentration Ratio 3. Herfindhal-Hirschman Index 4. Panzar and Rosse

5. Lerner Index 6. Cost-Inefficiency 7. Boone

8.

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

گﻮﻠﺴﻧﺍﺮﺗ ﻲﻌﺒﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ،ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ )

Translog ( ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﺍﺪﻜﻧﺎﺑ .ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟ ،ﻩﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭ 9. CAMELS

(10)

،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺟﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ

ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣﺎﻧ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳ ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻡﻭﺍﺪﺗ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﺖـﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ1

ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﻜﺷﺭﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺗ ﺎﺑ . ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱ

ﺕﻼﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﻞـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺟﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎـﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ

ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻱ ﻲﻃ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ

ﺎﻫ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ،ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻢﻬﻣ

ﺮﺗ ﻦﻳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺕﺎـﻣﺍﺰﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻱ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻝﺯﺎـﺑ ﻖـﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳ

2

ﻝﺯﺎﺑ) 1 ، 2 ﻭ 3 ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﻳﻮﺴﺗ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ( ﺎـﻫ

ﻱ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻠﻤﻟﺍ

3 ﻲـﻠ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ

ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ

ﺪﺷ ﻩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ،ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ،ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ)

(ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺷﺬﮔ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻪــﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﺎــﻣ ،ﻮﻧﻮﻣﺭﺍﺪﺋﻮــﺳ ) ﻱﺯﺍﺮــﺗ ﻭ ﺡﻭﺮﭼ

2013 ، 2011 ﺱﺎﻧﻮﻴــﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻥﺮــﺗ ،ﺲﻴــﻟﺩ ،(

) 2012 ﺎــﮕﻧﻮﻧﺍ ،(

)4

2014 ) ﻲــﺣﻼﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎــﺠﻴﻤﻛ ،(

1395 ﻭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪــﻧﺍ ﻱﺎــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ... ﻭ (

ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﺮـﻓ ﻪـﺑ ﺮﺼﺤﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚـﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺯﺍ ،

ﻝﺍﺪﻨﻴﻓﺮﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﻦﻤﺷﺮﻴﻫ- ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻠﻛ

ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ .

) ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ،ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ 1

) ﻭ ( 2 ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ (

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺷﺎﺑ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺪﻨ ،’Ž

،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺟﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ

Ƚ

،ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ، ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ،

،ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻩﺩﺮﭙﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،Ž†

،ﺕﻼﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻧﺮﻟ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ŽŽ

،•

،(ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ) ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺒﺴﻧ ،’

ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﺩﻮـﺳ ﺖ

،(ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ) ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺍﺪـﻨﻴﻓﺮﻫ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ŠŠ‹

،ﻦﻤـﺷﺮﻴﻫ– ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ،…‹

1.Cash Flows

2. Standards Of the Basel Accord

3. Bank Of International Settlements (BIS) 4. Onuonga

(11)

،(ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺎـﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ) ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ) ﻲـﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﻼﻴﻬـﺴﺗ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ،Žƒ

،(ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ،ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ،›

،ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،‹ˆ

ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ ،

،†—

ﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻣﻮﻫﻮﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﻉﻮ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱ 1

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ1

0 ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺍﺭ .ﺪﻨﻛ

’Ž୧୲ൌ ƒଵ୧൅ σ஡ୀଵȾଵ஡’Ž୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴…ଵ஡୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴†ଵ஡ŽŽ୧୲ି஡ σ஡ୀ଴‡ଵ஡ŽŽ୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴ˆଵ஡Ž†୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴‰ଵ஡Ž†୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Šଵ஡•୧୲ି஡ σ஡ୀ଴‹ଵ஡’୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Œଵ஡ŠŠ‹୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴ଵ஡›୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Žଵ஡‹ˆ୲ି஡ σ ଵ஡

஡ୀ଴ †—୧୲ି஡൅ ൅ ɂ୧୲ (1)

’୧୲ൌ ƒଶ୧൅ σ஡ୀଵȾଶ஡’୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴…ଶ஡୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴†ଶ஡ŽŽ୧୲ି஡ σ஡ୀ଴‡ଶ஡Ž†୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴ˆଶ஡ŠŠ‹୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴‰ଶ஡•୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Šଶ஡…‹୧୲ି஡ σ஡ୀ଴‹ଶ஡Žƒ୧୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Œଶ஡›୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴ଶ஡‹ˆ୲ି஡൅ σ஡ୀ଴Žଶ஡†—୧୲ି஡

൅ Ԗ୧୲ (2 )

4 - ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ

) ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ 1

) ﻭ ( 2 ) ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ( 1

.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ( ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 1 (

) ﺎﺗ 3 (،

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺎـﻫ ) ﻱ 4 ﺎـﺗ (

) 6 ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ( ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 1 (

) ﻭ 4 ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ( ﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ

ﻩﺪ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﺲﭙﺳ .ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻡﺎﻜﺤﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 2 ) ﻭ ( 5 ﻝﺮـﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ (

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﺬﺣ) ﻲﻜﻧﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻭ

ﻗﺍ ﻭ (ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 3 ) ﻭ ( 6 ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ (

ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻑﺪﺣ) ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ (ﻲﻜﻧﺎـﺑ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ

ﺷ ﻩﺪ .ﺪﻧﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻑﺮﻃﺮﺑ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ

ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﻲـﻳ

ﺭﺩ ،ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 1 ) ﻭ ( 2 ( ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ، ﺭﺩ ﻭ’

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ) ﻱ 4 ) ،(

5 ) ﻭ ( 6 ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،(

،

1.

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﺘﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﺷ .ﺪﻧﺍ

) 1 (

) 2 (

(12)

…‹

ﻪﺑ ،Žƒ

ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ

ﺍﺯ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ

1ﺪﻧﺍ ) ﻝﻭﺪﺟ . 2

ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ

ﻲﮕﺘﺒـﺴﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺒﻣ

ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﺭ ﻝﻼﺧﺍ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻮـﺷ

ﻪـﻛ ﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎـﺳ ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ

2ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ،ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ . ﻥﺎﮔﺭﺎﺳ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﺑﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ3

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ . ﻱ

ﻲﮔﺭﺰﺑ

ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻱ

ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﻩﺪـﺷ

ﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺩﺮﮔ ﻩﺩﺎ .4

ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1.

ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ

1394 - 1385

ﻡﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ :ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ

ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ (npl) ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﻮﺳ :ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ

(p)

ﻝﺪﻣ 1 ﻝﺪﻣ 2 ﻝﺪﻣ 3 ﻝﺪﻣ 4 ﻝﺪﻣ 5 ﻝﺪﻣ 6

) ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ (z ) ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ (z ) ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ (z ) ﺎﻣﺁ ﻩﺭ (z ) ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ (z ) ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ (z

npl(-1) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ

ﻝﻭﺍ

npl 76 / 0 71 ***

/ 0 82 ***

/ 0

***

) 53 / 8 ( ) 25 / 7 ( ) 27 / 7 (

npl(-2) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ

ﻡﻭﺩ

npl 26 / 0 - 29 ***

/ 0 - 25 ***

/ 0 -

***

) 52 / 3 -(

) 83 / 3 - ( ) 40 / 4 - (

P(-1) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ

p 99

/ 0

* 97 **

/ 0 04 ***

/ 1

***

) 22 / 13 ( ) 67 / 13 ( ) 64 / 14 (

P(-2) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ

p 47

/ 0 - 49 ***

/ 0 - 54 ***

/ 0 -

***

) 71 / 3 - ( ) 18 / 4 - ( ) 51 / 4 - (

ﺖﺒﺴﻧ k ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ

ﻲﻳﺍﺭﺍﺩ 65

/ 0 - 62 **

/ 0 - 52 * / 0 - 49 * / 0 - 51 **

/ 0 - 64 **

/ 0 -

**

) 11 / 2 -(

) 86 / 1 - ( ) 66 / 1 - ( ) 97 / 1 - ( ) 12 / 2 - ( ) 70 / 2 - (

k(-1) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ

k 36

/ 0 34 * / 0 37 * / 0

*

) 70 / 1 ( ) 67 / 1 ( ) 79 / 1 (

1 . .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺭﺎﺳ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺍﺰﻧﻭﺭﺩ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ

2 . ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ

.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ،ﻝﻭﺍ 3. Sargan

4 . ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ

،ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ

ﻪﺑ ،ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﻲﻣ .ﺪﻳﺁ

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ﺭﺍﺰـﻨﻤﭼ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﻤﺸﭼ ﻭ ﻲـﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ،ﺏﺁ ﺮـﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﻑﺮـﺑ ﺶـﺷﻮﭘ ﻭ ﺵﺭﺎـﺑ ﻪﻤﺸـﭼ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺰﮐﺮﻣ ﺱﺮﮔﺍﺯ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸـﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺷ ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺳﻮﮐﺍ ﻴ ﻢﺘﺴ ﺎﻫ ﻱ