Introduction
Part 2. Part 2. Central Asia and China’s External Relations
2. China’s Contemporary Strategy towards Central Asia
turn towards a “walkout(zouchuqu)” strategy economically, the value of Central Asia as an important emerging market stands out.82
2. China’s Contemporary Strategy towards Central
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fact that China cannot neglect the strategic implications of Central Asia. At least for reducing potential risks or even establishing a more progressive strategic space, in the foreseeable future, China may have two aims in Central Asia. First, it may focus on rising its regional influence by the SCO as the foundation and the Eurasian land bridge as the framework for consolidation. Second, Beijing will continue to expend efforts to enhance cooperation with Central and Southeast Asian states in what is known as the “new silk road” diplomacy.84
a. Main Platform: the SCO and Its Implications
With the emergence of a power vacuum in Central Asia after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, in the eyes of great powers outside the region, Central Asia was the only region on Eurasia that possessed high strategic potential waiting to be uncovered. With Russia redirecting its attention to Far East in the new century, and the U.S. penetrating Central Asia through its anti-terrorist campaign since 2001,85 heightened competition between Moscow and Washington not only compressed Beijing’s policy space but also forced the latter
84_Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar, “China’s New Silk Road Diplomacy,” PISM Policy Paper, No. 34, (82) (December 2013), <http://www.pism.pl/files/?id_plik=15818>.
85_Vladimir Putin, “Rossiya: novye vostochnye perspektivy,” President of Russia, November 9, 2000, <http://archive.kremlin.ru/appears/2000/11/09/
to strengthen its policy planning. The SCO is the outcome of active planning by China.86 In a sense, the SCO is the first and only international organization to date that China has voluntarily initiated.87
In fact, while China successively established relations with the countries of Central Asia, relations between China and Russia speared ahead as well after Boris Yeltsin entered office. In order to strengthen activity and influence in Central Asia, China and Russia, together with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, signed the Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions (1996) and the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions(1997) successively and initiated the institutionalization of the so-called “Shanghai Five.” Between 1998 and 2000, with the gradual expansion of multilateral meetings from discussions on strengthening border trust to cooperation in politics, security, diplomacy, economics and humanities, along with Uzbekistan,
86_Guang Pan, “The SCO’s Success in Security Architecture,” Ron Huisken (eds.), The Architecture of Security in the Asia Pacific (Canberra: Australia National University, 2009), pp. 33∼44.
87_Yu Zheng, Zhongemei zai Zhongya: Hezuo yu Jingzheng(Cooperation and Competition: China, Russia and U.S. in Central Asia) (Beijing: Social Science Academic Press, 2007), p. 408; Guangcheng Xing and Zhuangzhi Sun (eds.), Shanghai Hezuo Zuzhi Yanjiu(Shanghai Cooperation Organization) (Changchun: Changchun Press, 2007), pp. 148∼153; Yinhong Shi, “Great Power Politics in Central Asia Today: A Chinese Assessment,” Elizabeth Van Wie Davis and Rouben Azizian (eds.), Islam, Oil, and Geopolitics: Central Asia after September 11 (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2007), p. 167.
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Date Location Main Achievements
2001.06.15 Shanghai
- Adopted the Declaration on the Establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism.
2002.06.07 St.
Petersburg
- Signed the Charter of the SCO and the Agreement on Anti-terrorism Agency in the Region.
2003.05.29 Moscow
- Signed the Treaty for Budget Making and Implementation Approved Provisions on Member States Retaining Permanent Representative Status in the SCO Secretariat, emblem of the SCO and candidate for the secretary general of the SCO.
2004.06.17 Tashkent
- Signed the Convention on SCO Privilege and Exemption and Agreements on Combating the Trafficking of Illegal Narcotics.
- Approved Provisions on Observer Status.
- Established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Day Granted observer status to Mongolia.
the “Shanghai Six” jointly established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001 and agreed to annual summit meetings in order to deepen cooperation(see table V-5 for the achievement of past summits).88 The SCO was a major step in pushing forward institutionalization.
TableⅤ- 5 SCO Summit Meetings since 2001
88_Regarding the development of the SCO, see: China Institute of Contemporary International Relations ed., Shanghai Hezuo Zuzhi: Xin Anquanguan yu Xin Jizhi(Shanghai Cooperation Organization: New Security Concept and New Mechanisms) (Beijing: Current Affairs Press, 2002); see also Chien Peng Chung, “China and the Institutionalization of the Shanghai Cooperation
Date Location Main Achievements
2005.07.07 Astana
- Approved the Concept of Cooperation on Fighting Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism, and Provisions on Member States Retaining Permanent Representative Status in SCO Anti-terrorism Agencies.
- Granted observation status to Pakistan, Iran and India.
2006.06.15 Shanghai
- Signed the Declaration on the Fifth Anniversary; the Resolution on Fighting Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism from 2007 to 2009; the Agreement on Joint Anti-Terrorism Actions among Member Countries; the Agreement on Cutting Off the Infiltration Channels of Terrorists, Separatists and Extremists; and the Agreement on Inter-governmental Education Cooperation.
2007.08.16 Bishkek
- Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Pakistan and India participate under observer status for the first time, making the event the biggest since the establishment of the SCO.
- Approved the Treaty on Long-term Good-neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation.
2008.08.28 Dushanbe
- Signed Joint Communiqué of the Head of States Secretariat and Agreement on Provisions on Dialogue Partner Status.
2009.06.16 Yekaterinb urg
- Approved the Agreement on Provisions on Dialogue Partner Status.
- Granted dialogue partner status to Belarus and Sri Lanka.
2010.06.11 Tashkent - Approved the procedure of admitting new members.
2011.06.15 Astana
- Approved the Antidrug Strategy for 2011-2016.
- Signed the Astana Declaration of the Organization’s 10th anniversary, the agreement on intergovernmental cooperation on sanitation and the MOU between the SCO Secretariat and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
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Date Location Main Achievements
2012.06.06 Beijing
- Signed the Declaration on Building a Region with Lasting Peace and Common Prosperity; the Strategic Plan for the Medium-Term Development of the SCO; the SCO Regulations on Political and Diplomatic Measures and Mechanism of Response to Events Jeopardizing Regional Peace, Security and Stability; and the Resolution on Fighting Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism from 2013 to 2015.
- Granted observation member status to Afghanistan and dialogue partner status to Turkey.
2013.09.13 Bishkek
- Adopted the Treaty on Long-term Good-neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation.
- Signed an agreement on science and technology cooperation.
2014.09.11 Dushanbe
- Reached a consensus on fighting against separatism, extremism and terrorism, as well as on safeguarding regional peace and security therefore Afghanistan will be focal point.
The following sums up the main achievements of the SCO:
(1) Regular Prime Ministers(PMs) Meetings: PMs from the SCO member states agreed upon a memorandum on initiating regional economic cooperation, facilitating trade and investment, and formally announced the initiation of regular meetings for the aim of realizing confirmed priorities.
(2) Spillover from security to economic cooperation: besides the advancement of security cooperation centered on the
“three evil forces (terrorism, separatism and extremism),”
the SCO initiated a agreement in 2003 for multilateral
trade that aimed at realizing the free flow of goods, capital, services and skills and technology in twenty years.
The agreement represented a step in expanding the scope of cooperation from security to economics. On the occasion of the PM meeting in 2005, SCO members reiterated earlier pledges to expand economic ties in Central Eurasia and confirmed the ambitious goal of becoming a major global actor.89 According to IMF figures, the total GDP of SCO members increased from $2.1 trillion in 2003 to $10.5 trillion in 2012, an increase of approximately 1.9 times more than the global mean in the same period.90 Although economic growth is hinged upon the different levels of development among members and the global economic atmosphere, positive developments are expected for the near future.91
(3) Deepening of security cooperation: Security was the primary concern that motivated the establishment of the SCO and the emphasis of multilateral cooperation. As table I-6 shows,
89_Sergei Blagov, “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Eyes Economic, Security Cooperation,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, October 31, 2005, <http://www.jamestown.
org/edm/article.php?article_id=2370411>.
90_IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/
ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/index.aspx>.
91_Huaqin Liu, “shenhua shanghai hezuo zuzhi quyu jingji hequo de gouxiang(The Concept of Deepening Regional Economic Cooperation through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization),” Russian, Central Asian & East European Market, No. 1 (2014), pp. 31∼37.
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SCO members have continued to strengthen cooperation through bilateral and multilateral military exercises. In addition, in October 2007, the SCO signed an agreement with the Collective Security Treaty Organization(CSTO) to broaden cooperation on issues spanning security, crime and drug trafficking.92 It is clear that security cooperation is moving towards institutionalization and consolidation.
(4) Expansion of membership: Although the makeup of the six members of the organization remains unchanged, the SCO continues to provide Mongolia(2004), Pakistan, Iran, India (2005) and Afghanistan(2012) with observer status, and accepts Belarus, Sri Lanka(2009) and Turkey(2012) as dialogue partners. Clearly, the SCO is expanding its influence in South and West Asia. After receiving United Nations observer status in 2004, SCO Secretariat achieved a MOU with the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS) and the ASEAN Secretariat respectively in 2005, signs of the organization’s gradual increase in regional influence.
92_CSTO is an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed in 1992 by six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States (Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan).
Three other post-Soviet states(Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia) signed the next year and the treaty took effect in 1994. Five years later, six of the nine-all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan-agreed to renew the treaty for five more years, and in 2002 those six formally agreed to create the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a military alliance. Uzbekistan
Date Operation Name Content
2002.10
China-Kyrgyzstan anti-terrorist military
exercise
- Held at the border of China and Kyrgyzstan.
- First bilateral exercise held jointly under SCO framework.
- First time China held joint exercise with another state with real simulation.
2003.08
SCO joint anti-terrorist and
military exercise
- Codename “Coalition-2003”
- First multilateral anti-terrorist exercise under the SCO
- First time Chinese troops were involved in a large scale multilateral anti-terrorist exercise.
2005.08 China-Russia joint military exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2005”
- Attended by defense ministers from SCO member states and military observers from observer states.
2006.08
China-Kazakhstan joint anti-terrorist and military exercise
- Codename “Tianshan”
- Held respectively in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang.
- First time joint anti-terrorist exercise held between China and Kazakhstan under SCO framework.
2006.09
China-Tajikistan joint anti-terrorist and
military exercise
- Codename “Coordination 2006”
- Held in the vicinities of Dushanbe Involvement of Chinese and Tajikistan special forces.
2007.08 SCO joint anti-terrorist exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2007”
- Held in Urumqi, China and Chelyabinsk, Russia.
2007.09 China-Russia joint anti-terrorist exercise
- Codename “Cooperation 2007”
- Held in Moscow.
2009.07 China-Russia anti-terrorist exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2009”
- Held in Shenyang, China.
2010.09 SCO joint anti-terrorist exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2010”
- Held at Matyburak training area in southern Kazakhstan.
TableⅤ- 6 Joint Military Exercises by China and SCO Member States
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Date Operation Name Content
2012.06
SCO joint anti-terrorism
exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2012”
- Held at Chorukh-Dayron training range in northern Tajikistan.
2013.07
China-Russia joint anti-terrorist and
military exercise
- Codename “Peace Mission 2013”
- Held in Chelyabinsk, Russia.
- Biggest anti-terrorist land exercise to date held by the two countries.
In short, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated,
“the SCO is working to establish a rational and just world order
… it provides us with a unique opportunity to take part in the process of forming a fundamentally new model of geopolitical integration.”93 Even though the level of cooperation remains limited at the moment, the SCO possesses considerable potential, as the organization harbors a region that exceeds EU, North America and ASEAN in both territory94 and population.95 The SCO can be expected to grow into colossal size when South Asian countries enter the organization. As some observers suggest,
“Russia, India and China are the largest continental countries of Eurasia and Eurasia is the main continent of the world … initiative in world politics is objectively moving from great naval
93_Rick Rozoff, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Prospects For A Multipolar World,” Global Research, May 22, 2009, <http://www.globalresearch.
ca/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-prospects-for-a-multipolar- world/13707>.
94_60% of Eurasia continent.
powers such as Britain and the Unites States to the continental countries.”96
b. Route Diplomacy: The New Silk Road Project
It is worth noting that despite the important role China plays in the SCO, the connection between the SCO and China’s Central Asian policy can be difficult to make sometimes. On the one hand, traditional wisdom regards Central Asia as under the influence of China and Russia or a “dual leadership” model, on the other hand, China has traditionally taken a conservative stance in multilateral institutions. In recent years, however, China has clearly become more active in foreign policy.
In the 2013 SCO Summit, Xi Jinping raised a four-point proposal.97 First, China and SCO members should seek to realize the “Shanghai Spirit” based on equality, consultation, mutual understanding and mutual accommodation. Second, all members should jointly safeguard regional security and stability, establish a comprehensive center to deal with security threats and challenges,
96_Even the possible accession of Iran was also discussed earlier. See “SCO Membership Precursor to Russia-India-China Alliance,” Russia & India Report, October 10, 2013, <http://in.rbth.com/world/2013/10/10/sco_membership_precursor _to_russia-india-china_alliance_30051.html>.
97_“Xi Jinping Delivers Speech at SCO Summit, and Raises Four-Point Proposal,”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, September 13, 2013, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/xjpfwzysiesgjtfhshzzfh _665686/t1077762.shtml>.
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and jointly support Afghanistan’s national reconciliation process.
Third, signing of the Agreement on the Facilitation of International Road Transport should be accomplished as soon as possible. The agreement would serve as the foundation for building transport corridors that connect the Baltic Sea and the Pacific Ocean and link Central Asia with the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. Finally, countries should strengthen people-to-people communication and non-governmental exchange that shall ground the development of the SCO in the solid foundation of public opinion and society.
Just one week before introducing previous proposal, Xi has suggested the establishment of a “Silk Road Economic Belt”
between China and Central Asia.98 Following that, in early 2014, state-owned Xinhua News Agency unveiled a new column titled
“New Silk Road, New dreams” that is aimed at “rediscovering the historical and cultural meaning of the Silk Road and spreading awareness of China’s friendly policies towards neighboring countries.”99 In June 2014, Xi further called on China and Arab states to make joint efforts towards negotiations and cooperation in establishing the “One Belt and One Road.”100
98_“President Xi Proposes to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt,” CCTV.Com, September 7, 2013, <http://english.cntv.cn/program/china24/20130907/103428.
shtml>.
99_See “xinsilu xinmengxiang(New Silk Road, New Dream),” Xinhua.Net, <http://
www.xinhuanet.com/world/newsilkway/index.htm>.
100_“Chinese President Urges Joint Efforts in Building Silk Road Economic Belt,”
CCTV.Com, June 5, 2014, <http://english.cntv.cn/2014/06/05/ARTI140195796
Regardless of Beijing’s real strategic motives in Central Asia, we can draw at least a pair of conclusions on China’s policy in the region. First, by extending development into and beyond its western borders, Beijing seeks to correct its domestic problem of disparity between the east and the west while stretching its influence to encompass all of Asia.101 Second, amidst Washington and Moscow’s strategic competition in Central Asia, Beijing also seeks to establish a strategic base for itself. As many observers point out, “China should make haste to invest in the establishment of a network of strategic channels that shall effectively reduce the country’s vulnerability in having energy supplies cutoff at sea and dependence on strategic channels in the West Pacific.”102 In recent years, China has actually participated in transnational transportation and infrastructure projects in neighboring regions with great vigor. The New Silk Road represents how active of Chinese policy in Central Asia.103
It is worth pointing out that although the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton formally proposed the initiative for establishing a new Silk Road a web of economic and transit connections across
101_Tung-chieh Tsai, Dangdai Zhongguo Waijiao Zhengce(China’s New Diplomacy: Interpreting Its Connotation and Tendency) (Taipei: Wunan Books, 2011), p. 166.
102_Honghua Men and Yuning Gao, “nenyuan anquan: guojia anquan de xin tiaozhan(Energy Security: the New Challenge in National Security),” Renmin Net, June 8, 2004, <http://www.people.com.cn/BIG5/jingji/1045/2554335.html>.
103_Jundu Xue and Guangcheng Xing (eds.), Zhongguo yu Zhongya(China and Central Asia) (Beijing: Social Science Academic Press, 1999), pp. 154∼170.
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South and Central Asia based around a hub in Afghanistan in July 2011 in order to improve the Afghan economy and the economic prospect of the region,104 as early as 1994, Chinese Premier Li Peng made the statement that “we(China) are willing to join hands with the countries of Central Asia … in contributing respective efforts towards the establishment of the new Silk Road.”105
In 1998, at the International Conference on the Restoration of the Historic Silk Road, participants adopted a multilateral agreement (Baku Declaration) on the establishment of a Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia(TRACECA). In the same year, China actively called for the establishment of the 600km China- Kirghizia-Uzbekistan international railroad, a project that would provide an interface for the TRACECA. Near the end of 2000, China further established the New Eurasian Land Bridge International Coordination Mechanism under the joint auspices of the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Commerce Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology. The land bridge project currently involves sixteen commissions under the PRC State Council.
104_Robert D. Hormats, “The U.S.’ New Silk Road Strategy: What is it? Where is it Headed?,” U.S. Department of State, September 29, 2011, <http://www.
state.gov/e/rls/rmk/2011/174800.htm>.
In 2004, China completed construction of the 4,395km long highway connecting Lianyun Port(Jiangsu) with Khorgas (Xinjiang). Beijing’s successive efforts established the necessary infrastructure for personnel and commercial exchange between China and Central Asia. In 2010, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Iran signed an initial agreement on the establishment of the China-Iran railway, a route that will span 2,300km. This railway is set to depart from Xinjiang and break off into the southern and western lines in Iran, with the former reaching the Persian Gulf and the latter connecting Turkey and Europe. Once complete, the China-Iran railway is expected to rewrite the geopolitical landscape from Central to West Asia.
In 2011, Beijing further announced the establishment of two routes connecting China and Europe. The “Yuxinou Rail Line”
spans approximately 11,000km and goes through Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe and Germany while a second freight route travels 10,214km between Zhengzhou, China and Hamburg, Germany.106 Both routes reach Germany via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Furthermore, China has raised its railway construction budget in 2014 to ￥800 billion, up from ￥630 billion in 2013. In short, the above results correspond to China’s long term policy planning over the Eurasian Land Bridge or the New
106_C. Raja Mohan, “The Great Game Folio: China’s Railroads,” The Indian Express, April 2, 2014, <http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/
the-great-game-folio-chinas-railroads/>.