Baruch Fischhoff, PhD is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the departments of Socialand Decision Sciences and of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, where he heads the Decision Sciences major. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, be holds a B.S. in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences and is past President of the Society for Judgement and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis, and recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award. He was founding chair of the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee and recently chaired the National Research Council Committee on BehavioralandSocialScienceResearch to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and currently co-chairs the National Research Council Committee on Future Research Goals and Directions for Foundational Science in Cybersecurity and the National Academy of Sciences Sackler Colloquium on “The Science of Science Communication.” He is a former member of the Eugene, Oregon Commission on the Rights of Women, Department of Homeland Security’s Scienceand Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science (previously the American Psychological Association), the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has co-authored or edited 11 books: Acceptable Risk (1981); A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (1993); Elicitation of Preferences (2000); Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach (2002); Intelligence Analysis: BehavioralandSocialScience Foundations (2011); Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011); Communicating Risks and Beneits: An Evidence-Based Guide (2011); Judgment and Decision Making (2011); Risk Analysis and Human Behavior (2011); The Science of Science Communication (2013); and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013).
A reader of the ﬁrst edition will notice many changes in this revision. Hopefully these constitute improvements (they certainly constituted a lot of work). First, the coverage of Markov chain Monte Carlo is greatly expanded. The reason for this is obvious, but bears mentioning. Modern applied Bayesian work is integrally tied to stochastic simulation and there are now several high-quality software alternatives for implementation. Unfortunately these solutions can be complex and the theoretical issues are often demanding. Coupling this with easy-to-use software, such as WinBUGS and MCMCpack, means that there are users who are unaware of the dangers inherent in MCMC work. I get a fair number of journal and book press manuscripts to review supporting this point. There is now a dedicated chapter on MCMC theory covering issues like ergodicity, convergence, and mixing. The last chapter is an extension of sections from the ﬁrst edition that now covers in greater detail tools like: simulated annealing (including its many variants), reversible jump MCMC, and coupling from the past. Markov chain Monte Carlo research is an incredibly dynamic and fast growing literature and the need to get some of these ideas before a socialscience audience was strong. The reader will also note a substantial increase on MCMC examples and practical guidance. The objective is to provide detailed advice on day-to-day issues of implementation. Markov chain Monte Carlo is now discussed in detail in the ﬁrst chapter, giving it the prominent position that it deserves. It is my belief that Gibbs sampling is as fundamental to estimation as maximum likelihood, but we (collectively) just do not realize it yet. Recall that there was about 40 years between Fisher’s important papers and the publication of Birnbaum’s Likelihood Principle. This second edition now provides a separate chapter on Bayesian linear models. Regression remains the favorite tool of quantitative social scientists, and it makes sense to focus on the associated Bayesian issues in a full chapter. Most of the questions I get by email and at conferences are about priors, reﬂecting sensitivity about how priors may aﬀect ﬁnal inferences. Hence, the chapter on forms of prior distributions is longer and more detailed. I have found that some forms are particularly well-suited to the type of work that socialandbehavioral researchers do. One of the strengths of Bayesian methods is the ease with which hierarchical models can be speciﬁed to recognize diﬀerent levels and sources in the data. So there is now an expanded chapter on this topic alone, and while Chapter 12 focuses exclusively on hierarchical model speciﬁcations, these models appear throughout the text reﬂecting their importance in Bayesian statistics.
Research progress has also been inhibited by chal- lenges that arise when fostering interdisciplinary work among diverse science communities with different knowledge sets, research goals, and capaci- ties. For example, rather than viewing SBS research as an “add-on” to meteorology, interdisciplinary framing of weather-related research should be pursued from the outset of a project. Addressing these barriers requires a more realistic understand- ing by meteorologists and others of the diverse disciplines andresearch methodologies used within the socialandbehavioral sciences; of the time and resources required for robust SBS research; and of the inherent limitations in providing simple, universally-applicable answers to complex socialscience questions.
NICE. (2013). National costing report: Social Anxiety Disorder. Diambil pada tanggal 3 Juli 2013 dari http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/live/14168/63864/63864.pdf NIMH. (2013). Social Phobia (Social Anxiety Disorder). Diambil pada tanggal 3 Juli 2013 dari http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/topics/social-phobia-social-anxiety- disorder/index.shtml
interact with the various components in an experimental set- As Shimp, Hyatt, and Snyder state: “(nonreplication) can ting. For example, human subjects cannot be precisely dupli- be explained by at least five factors, including improper repli- cated. A social scientist is limited only to matching subjects cation (e.g., nonequivalent manipulations), nonrobust theory, as closely as possible. the presence of demand artifacts in the original or replicated A Type I replication is a faithful duplication of a prior data, sampling effects, or laboratory effects” (1991, p. 276). study and, as such, is considered the “purest” form of replica- Nonrobust theory and the presence of demand artifacts in the tion research in the social sciences. It should be mentioned original data are the only explanations above that cast doubts at this point that a Type I replication is the one most closely on the original research when replicated by a different re- associated with the term “replication” in the minds of most searcher. Moreover, the burden of proof lies with the person researchers. Moreover, this is also the type of replication re- attempting to replicate findings. Finally, Churchill’s discussion search most criticized for not being creative. This is somewhat of the lack of review articles in our literature sheds some light ironic, given the apparent receptivity of reviewers to cross- on challenging the topic of original published studies: cultural research that, in many cases, is usually the study of
Dengan masuknya social theory , akuntansi sebagai satu sistem dan prosedur yang menghasilkan laporan keuangan, dimaksudkan untuk membantu para pemakai pengambilan keputusan, ternyata mengandung seperangkat esensi behavioural yang syarat dengan muatan integrasi dengan berbagai ilmu (teori) sosial lainnya. Hal itu, memberi petunjuk bahwa akuntansi akan mempengaruhi para pengguna dalam memilih tindakan yang paling baik untuk menghasilkan sumberdaya yang langka pada aktivitas bisnis (Ikhsan & Ishak, 2005).
An online community that harnesses the power of one’s social networks for the introduction, buying, and selling of products, services, and resources, including one’s own creations; also may refer to a structure that resembles a social network but is focused on individual members
In this project, we are going to develop an Intelligent Analytic Dashboard (IAD). Intelligent Analytic Dashboard is a dashboard that is developed for the purpose of reporting the sales reports. This dashboard is unique from other reporting dashboard before as this dashboard is developed to report the total sales reports of MOOC, MeetInventor and eStore. So, the data of sales will be retrieved from three databases especially which are MOOC, MeetInventor and eStore respectively. Because of each databases consists of large number of data, optimization is required to be done on those databases in order to retrieve and analyse the data from those three databases for the use of reporting. In this project, too, decision tree, a tree-like analyzing model artificial intelligent technique, is decided to be used in analyzing the data model. Besides, regression method is also being used to predict the future sales of those three portals. After optimization is successfully carried out, results will be reported through Intelligent Analytic Dashboard.
Further we extend deepest gratitude and high appreciation to all presenters and contributors to make this conference possible and these proceedings published. It is realised that publication of these proceedings are still far rom being perfect; however, hopefully it will be useful for energy scientist, engineers, policy makers and any other readers as references for enriching their knowledge .
Abstract. Magnesium and magnesium alloys is one of materiels that worldwide used on automotive components due to very good strength to weight ratio, resistant to corrosion, lighter compare to steel materials. Other than that magnesium has an avantage in easy to form and good machinability. Nevertheles, magnesium known as metal which is easy to burned because of magnesium has low melting point. To maintant magnesium from burning quickly when proses machining, it needs to use coolant or lubricant to reduce temperature. Using of coolant when maching proses can reduce temperature on cuntting tool and workpice material, while using of lubricant can reduce friction between the cutting tool and workpiece mateial. However, using of coolant and lubricant can harm for the enviroment and also coolant difficult to destroyed. Therefore, an alternative method to reduce the temperature when machining of magnesium alloy is using the rotary cutting tool system. In the rotary cutting tool system, the cutting tool has a time to experience cooling in the periode time. Other than aspect of temperature, surface roughness values are representative of surface of quality of produced comprents. In this research, surface roughness value of magnesium alloy of AZ31 observed in ranges of workpiece cutting speed of (Vw) 25, 50, 120, 160, 200 m/min, rotary cutting speed of (Vt) 25, 50, 75 m/min, feed rate of (f) 0,05 and 0,10 mm/rev, and depth of cut of 0.2 mm. The turning process was done by using two kinds of diamter of rotary cutting tools are 16 and 20 mm, and without applying of coolant. The results of the research showed that the minimum surface roughness value of machined surrace was 0,62 𝝻 m by using insert with diameter of 16 mm, while the maximum surface roughness value of machined surface was 2,86 𝝻 m by using insert with diamter of 20 mm. This result stated that the increase in the diameter of rotary cutting tool gives a significat effect on the produced surface roughness velue. Factor of feedrate aslo gives a significant contribution on the surface roughness value of machined magnesium surface. The increase in feedrate generated significantly surface roughness value as long as the trials experiments. The produced surface roughness values inversely propotional to the cutting speed of rotary cutting tool.
The preceding discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of economics suggests that health policy and health services research require inputs from many disciplines, i.e., interdisciplinary or multidisciplinary research. The former is very difficult to execute but the latter is quite feasible, and often very necessary. To understand why interdisciplinary research is so difficult, we must ask what it is that distinguishes one discipline from another. Most important, in my view, are the concepts that the discipline uses. To appreciate this point, I suggest that you try the following experiment. Ask a few leading economists of your acquaintance to write down the 10 to 20 most important concepts in economics. Then ask a few leading psychologists, sociologists, and political scientists to do the same thing. You will find that there is almost no overlap in the lists of concepts. The concepts that we think are important do not appear on their lists, and vice-versa. This discordance makes true interdisciplinary research — a blending and fusion of concepts — unlikely.
The objective of behavior science is to understand, explain and predict human behavior , to establish generalizations about human behavior that are supported by empirical evidence collected in an impersonal way by procedures that are completely open to review and replication and capable of verifiaction by other interested scholars.
Today, in an environment of competitive supply chain conditions, there is a tendency among buyers to rush into alliances with suppliers without first laying the foundation necessary to sustain the relationship over a long period of time (Morgan and Hunt, 1994). The degree in which relationship continuity is perceived by a trading partner conditions the trading partner`s anticipation of prolonging the relationship in the future (Heide and John, 1990). In the initiation stages of a relationship, both partners invest in a relationship with the objective of benefiting from the advantages aligned with continuing with the relationship (Cousins, 2002). According to Jackson (1985) the purchase decision of a new product or service creates a high level of risk and uncertainty caused by complicated products and services rendered by the company. He continues by saying that a decision to repurchase is usually the same decision to continue a business relationship. Ring and van de Ven (1994) suggest that if a customer is satisfied with the service provider based on the past purchase experience and fairness of the transaction, that relationship has a high probability of continuing. In summary, relationship continuity is the readiness of a customer to continue with the relationship for a longer period. It is expected that satisfied customers remain with the service provider rather than change service providers. This will result in sustained income. Therefore it can be hypothesised that:
Excessive meat consumption has negative impact on many areas of life, such as: health, production efficiency, environment, andsocialand ethics. This negative impact has encouraged the effort to change the behavior in consuming meat. This study is expected to contribute to the creation of public awareness, the need to establish the balance between consuming meat behavior and its consequences. The study used the experimental method. Hypothesis tested by Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney test. The result of the study stated there was a significant difference between stimuli of information about negative impact of meat consumption on health, environment, socialand ethics and control. Meanwhile, there was no significant difference between stimuli of information about negative impact of meat consumption on production efficiency and control. Conclusion of the study is information about negative impact of meat consumption on health, environment, socialand ethics can cause behavioral change
Paradigm is someone’s way of thinking in seeing or understanding something. According to Bogdan and Biklen (1982) as cited by Moleong (2005), paradigm is a loose set from some assumptions that were held together, concept or proposition that directs the way of thinking andresearch. On the other hand, Kuhn (1962)explained paradigm as someone’s way of thinking to the social reality which affected by his or her way of thinking. The concept of science which is developed in a research is very depended on the paradigm used by the writer with the certain analysis methods and techniques. Research paradigm according to Indriantoro & Supomo (1999) is a frameworks which explains about how researcher’s way of thinking to the social life’s facts and researcher’s treatment to the scienceand theory. Research paradigm also explains about how researcher understands the problems and the testing criteria as the foundation to answer the research problems. Currently, there is a development of science paradigm that comes from how the scientists looked at a reality. Kuhn (1962) assumed that differences paradigm in developing science will give birth to different knowledge. Because if the way scientists think (mode of thought) different each other in catching a reality, then naturally their understanding of the reality will become diverse.In understanding social reality, different paradigm will cause different beliefs, values, and norms. When certain paradigm is no longer able to become guidance or no longer able to answer life’s problem that always evolve to be more complex, so the old paradigm will experience anomaly, and then a crisis. The old paradigm is no longer relevant. According to Kuhn (1962), science crisis was firstly marked by the existence of unsolved problems that create anomalies situation. The existence of these problems led to a shift from the old paradigm into the new one to answer problems that arise.Kuhn (1962)believed that science has the data collection period in a paradigm. Revolution then occurs after a paradigm becomes fully grown. Paradigm is able to cope with anomalies. Some anomalies are tackled within a paradigm. However, when a lot of anomalies disrupt and threaten the discipline matrix then a paradigm becomes untenable. When a paradigm cannot be maintained then the scientists can move to a new paradigm (Kuhn, 1970).
Survival analysis is a statistical analysis that is specifically used to analyze the data or cases related to the time duration until the event happened and there are data censored . At first time, studied of survival is focused on the probability predictions of response, survival, average life expectancy and comparing the treatment of survival illustration experiment in humans. But survival analysis developed in the identification of risk factors and prognostic factors associated with the development of the disease . One method of analysis that can be used for survival data are cox proportional hazards regression (Cox PH). Cox PH regression modeling can also be used to determine which combination of independent variables that influence in the model. In its development, Cox PH regression modeling can include relationships between predictor variables with the model function multivariate regression adaptive spline (MARS).
This research describe about the regional autonomy bureau role at the procces of regional expansion of South Nias, implementation of development and the regional expansion evaluation which is have connection on regional development level of South Nias that registered as poorest regional at Province of North Sumatera.The data used in this study were sourced from books, archives, documents and the Internet.The analytical method used in this study is a qualitative method by describe of the regional autonomy bureaus tasks then seek for their role so that will connected to regional development level of South Nias by collecting enough data for later studied, processed, analyzed and then interpreted presented descriptively. The thory that I use in this research is Politics of Development and regional autonomy theory. I use these theory because I want to describe how politics have influence to regional development, and one of politics of development product is permiting every regional that called regional autonomy. The Regional autonomy operated by structuring the regional. This structuring regional was operated in to ways, by formed new regional that can be operate by regional expansion and unification the regiond, and regional adaptation.
Abstract: Manufacturing defects or errors are always the key concerns of any manufacturing industry. The success of any organization depends on the quality of product especially right product produced. This dissertation work is to be done in small blow moulding company, which manufactures the Air duct for automobile air conditioners. The initial research shows the past trends of rejection is between 8-9% which includes human error in material removal, wrong fitting of clamp, molding defects, etc. the need is to reduce that to compete in highest competitive market and to continuous satisfaction of customer. One of the successful devices in lean production to eliminate waste caused by errors is ‘mistake-proofing’ or ‘Poka-yoke’. Mistake-proofing is one of the effective approaches that prevents inadvertent errors and helps workers to be mistake-proof and does not allow defective products to flow to next processes. The Poka-Yoke approach was developed in the manufacturing industry as a way of improving productivity by reducing errors using often very simple adaptations. This dissertation work corroborates that, as Poka-Yokes to be implemented in manufacturing process of Air duct – Blow molding process. Methodology/approach: This dissertation work demonstrate the use of the Poka-Yoke approach in a manufacturing process of blow molding process, highlighting how they served to improve product quality by reducing rejection/waste. Status: the relevant literature review has been done along with study of Poka Yoke technique. Next step of study of manufacturing process of Air duct by blow molding is done and process mapping is done through process flow diagram. Next Phase of Work: Identification of the processes which contributes to the rejection and rework after process study. Application of Poka Yoke in the manufacturing process mainly to eliminate manual error by designing suitable means which reduces the rejection.
Chandrasegaran, dkk. (2007) The development of a two-tier multiple-choice diagnostic instrument for evaluating secondary school students’ ability to describe and explain chemical reactions using multiple levels of representation. Chemistry Education Researchand Practice , 8 (3), hlm. 293-307.