An Do trong boi canh "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Dmrng:
Tw do va rong ma": tSm nlun va chinh sach
Tran Nam Tien**'
Tom tat: Vdi su trdi day mgnh me trong nhieng ndm gdn ddy. An Do dugc ddnh gid Id se giit vai trd quan trgng trong bdi cdnh mdi. Thong qua nhiing ddng thdi gdn ddy. An Do dang huang den xdy dung mgt chinh sdch dot ngogi "ddc lap, tu chit" vdi vai trd Id mot ben diiu tiet cugc chcri trong khdng gian chien lugc "AnDd Duang- Thdi Binh Duang". Bdi viit tap trung phdn tich tdm nhin vd nhitng dieu chinh chinh sdch cua An Do trong bdi cdnh "An Do Duong - Thdi Binh Ducmg: Tu do vd rdng md".
Tu- khda: "An Do Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong", Chinh sach ddi ngoai, Quan he qudc td, An Do Abstract: The strong rise of India in recent years is expected to play an important role in the new context. India's recent moves have been towards developing an "independent, self- reliant" foreign policy as a balancing actor in the strategic game in Indo-Pacific region.
The paper focuses on India's vision and policy adjustments in the climate of "Free and Open Indo-Pacific " strategy.
Keyword: "Indo-Pacifie", Foreign PoHcy, International Relations, India
1. Sy troi day ciia Trung Quoc va An Do trong boi canh "An Do Dirong - Thai Binh Duong: Tir do va rong m d "
Budc vao thap nien dau the ky XIX, Thai Bmh Duong da vugt qua Dai Tay Duong, trd thanh dai d u a r ^ thu hiit su phat trien ciia ca the giai. Den nay, p h i n Idn cac nha nghien ciru deu cho rang; "The ky Thdi Binh Duong" (Pacific Century) Id cd thuc, phdn dnh suphdt trien ndng ddng nhung citng rdt phiec tgp do nhiing chuyen dgng trdt tie dia chinh tri mai. Do nhiing dnh hudng thuc te cua nd, nen quan niem vi "The ky Thdi
'•' PGS.TS., Tmong Dai hpc Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan vSn, Dai hoc Qu6c gia thanh pho Ho Chi Minh;
&nail: [email protected]
Binh Duang" lgi tra thdnh mdt phdn cua quan niem ve "The ky chdu A " hogc "The ky chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong' (Lowther, 2013: 25-44). Su vuon len cua hang loat cac hien tugng kinh te d Ddng A da de lai an tugng sau sac cho the gidi.
Tuy nhien, sir trdi day chua tung cd ve kinh te va phan nao ve quan su ciia Trung Quoc trong thap nien ddu the ky XXI da thuc su gay kn tugng manh cho ca the gidi (Arase, 2016: 92-95). Nam 2000, ndn kmh td Trung Qudc dung thu 6 the gidi. Nam 2002, Trung Qudc chinh thuc tuyen bd
"Trdi day hda bmh" ( ^ P ^ l l ! ^ ^ ) (nam 2004 ddi thanh "Phat tridn hda binh" - ^ P ^ i ^ M.), khdi dgng cho mgt qua trinh phat trien
Th6ng tin Khoa noc xa nui. au ' mai. Den nam 2010, Trung Qudc da cd tdng
GDP dat tdi 5.930 ty USD, vugt qua Nhat Ban, Due, Phap va Anh, vuon len hang thu hai the gidi ve kinh te, sauMy (Wang, 2013:
1). Kd til nam 2012, Tap Can Binh trd thanh nha lanh dao mdi cua Trung Qudc, da dua qudc gia nay hudng den mgt each tiep can chinh sach ddi ngoai mdi tuong xung hon vdi vi the cudng qudc the gidi mdi. "Giac mdng Trung Hoa" (•+• H ^ ) dugc day manh dudi thdi Tap Can Binh phii hgp vdi quan diem Tnmg Qudc hien la mgt nudc Idn va cin phai thd hien nhiing khat vgng va diai do cua mdt cudng qudc. Chinh sacb ngoai giao mdi ciia Trung Qudc nlian thuc dugc
"mdt giai doan co hgi chien lugc" de Tnmg Qudc khang dinh cac tuyen bd chu quyen cua nudc nay, va tham vgng eda nd trai dai tir Thai Bmh Duong sang An Do Duong.
Trong ky nguyen chau A, su troi day cua An Do ciing rat an tugng, thu hut su quan tam ciia the gidL Sau mgt thap nien cai each va chuyen ddi, budc vao thap nien diu thd ky XXI, An Do the hien sir phat trien manh me va nhanh chdng xac lap yi the cudng qudc cua minh d khu vuc, budc dau anh hudng ra the gidi (Nambiar, 2006:
11-21). Su troi day cua An Do dugc danh gia la "cd chat lugng", do do gidi quan sat qudc te du bao An Do se la mdt sieu cudng trong tuang Iai. Hien nay. An Do da CO ban vugt Trung Qudc de trd thanh nen kinh te chu dao cd miic do tang trudng cao nhat the gidi (7,1% nam 2016 so vcri 6,7%
cua Trung Qudc) (OECD, 2018: 65). Theo du bao, nam 2024, An Do se vugt Trung Qudc, trd thanh qudc gia ddng dan nhat the gidi; nam 2030 se vugt Nhat Ban trd thanh nen kinh te ldn thu ba the gidi (https://
indianexpress.com/article/india/by-2024- india-to-overtake-china-as-most-populous- nation-in-the-worId-un-4716514/; Uehara,
Tahara, 2017). Khac vdi Trung Qudc, su troi day cua An Do dugc thd gioi ddn nhan mdt each tich cue. Hien nay. An Do cilng dugc danh gia la mgt cudng qudc cd kha nang trd thanh "cudng qudc bien" trong tuang lai nhd nhiSng khu vuc duyen hai dugc bao quanh bdi mdt trong nhirng vung bien quan togng nhit tren the gidi - An Do Duong. Nhan thuc dugc uu the nay. An Dd da sdm tidp can va khing dinh tim quan trgng cua An Do Duong trong su phat trien ciia minh, qua dd dua An Do trd thanh quoc gia cd sy hien dien manh nhat d viing bien nay (Rajagopalan, 2017:13-36). Tuy nhien, su md rdng anh hudng cua Tnmg Qudc qua An Do Duong da de dga lgi ich chien lugc cua An Do d viing bien nay.
Nhin chung, su troi day cua Trung Qudc la mdt phan ciia the can bang dia chmh tri dang ndi, su ra ddi khai niem "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" nhu la mdt thuc thd chidn luge nham can bang vai mdt nua tren. Vdi sir troi day cua An Do, khdng gian hang hai rgng ldn da tao nen sir "nhat quan" hoan hao bdi mdt viing bien rdng ldn keo dai tir An Do Duong sang Thai Binh Duong. Khai niem An Bo Duong - Thai Binh Duong xuat hien nhu mdt each phan ung trudc nhiing tham vgng cua Tnmg Qudc ddi vdi khdng gian dia ly do. Tren thuc te, cudc canh tranh chien lugc vci Tnmg Qudc - nguci khdng Id mdi cua chau A d khu vuc chau A va true tiep o khu vuc An Do Duong da budc An Do phai thay ddi viec xay dung cac chien lugc, chinh sach cua minh theo tu tucmg thuc te hon: quyet tam manh me trong cudc canh tranh chien lugc vci lgi ich tuyet ddi thay vi tap trung vao can bang tuong ddi (thuyet can bang quyen luc) nhu truoc, trong dd nhan manh viec gia tang siic manh (quan su), uu tien va tdi da hda yeu to an ninh tren ca sd yeu
td quyen lyc (Granados, 2017: 124). Sy trdi day ciia Trung Qudc va sy ndi Ien sau nay ciia An Do da gdp phan khdi phuc cac mdi lien ket giiia Thai Binh Duong va An Do Duong cung nhu giira Ddng A va Nam A. Theo dy bao, hai cudng qudc chau A nay se la nhiing "dien vien chinh" trong bdi canh "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duang"
trong tuong lai.
2. Ve khong gian dia chien luge "An Do Duffng - Thai Binh Dmrng"
Thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" (Indo-Pacific) dugc sii dung ngay cang rgng rai trong nh'&ng tiep can ve dia chinh tri, dia chien lugc toan cau nhiing nam gan day. Xet ve lich sii, day khdng phai la mdt thuat ngii mdi, ma thye te nd dugc vay mugn ttr Iliih vyc dja - sinh hgc, chi vung nudc nhiet ddi trai tu ba Tay An Do Duang tdi Tay va Trung Tay Thai Bmh Duong. Gurpreet S. Khurana - Giam ddc Quy Hang hai Quoc gia tai New Delhi (An Do) - dugc coi la ngudi dau tien sii dung thuat ngu "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" trong mgt bai viet cong bd nam 2007. Khurana lap luan rang, cac lgi ich chung va cdt loi'cua An Do va Nhat Ban ve hang hai se khd cd the dugc bao dam neu An Do Duong va Thai Binh Ducmg bi chia re trong nhan thiic chien lugc (Khurana, 2007: 139-153). Do do, thuat ngir "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" ra ddi nhu mgt tim nhin chien lugc mai trong khu vyc ma, gan ket hai dai duong quan trgng cua the gidi: An Do Duong va Thai Binh Duong.
Tren thye te, khai niem "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg" vdn da dugc sii dung thudng xuyen bdi cac quan chiic cap cao, chinh khach, cac nha phan tich chien lugc va gidi lanh dao quan dgi a cac qudc gia cd lien quan den khu vyc nay. Nam 2007, Thu tudng Nhgt Ban Shinzo Abe da cd bai phat
bieu trudc Nghi Vien An Do v8 "sy hgp luu ciia hai dai duong" (Confluence ofthe Two Seas) nhu la "su ket ndi nang dgng cua hai vung bidn ty do va thinh vugng" d chau A, Khai niem nay sau do da dugc gidi chinh tri va hgc gia An Do, Nhat Ban ung hg, coi la nen tang cua hgp tac toan dien tren co so ddi tac chien lugc toan ciu, vi lgi ich chung cua hai qudc gia trong thd ky XXI (Bhatia, Sakhuja, 2014: 53). Nam 2010, Ngoai trudng My Hillary Clinton da sir dung thuat ngu An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong trong mdt phat bieu tai Honolulu (Hawaii, My): "Mcr rdng cdng viec ciia ehiing tdi vdi Hai quan An Do d Thai Bmh Ducmg vi ehiing tdi hieu tam quan trgng ciia luu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg ddi vdi thuong mai toan cau" (Clinton, 2010).
Phat bieu cua ba Hillary Cluiton da phan anh rd rang va cd y nghia ve sy hdi tu chien lugc ngay cang tang giiia My va An Do ddi vdi khu vuc. Nam 2012, Thu tudng An Do Mamnohan Singh da sit dung thuat ngii An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Ducmg trong bai phat bidu tai Hdi nghi thugng dinh An Do - ASEAN d New Delhi, thuat ngii nay da md rdng pham vi ciia khu vyc chau A - Thai Bmh Duong va nhan manh su phat trien cua An Do trong khu vyc (Scott, 2012:
165-188). Trong bdi canh thuat ngii An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong dugc de cap rgng rai, Uc Iai chinh la nudc phd bien thuat ngii nay, the hien trong viec Sdch trdng Qudc phdng l/c tix nam 2013-2016 da dh cap tdi An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong nhu la mgt khu vyc quan trgng trong chien lugc an ninh cua qudc gia nay (Commonwealth of Australia, 2016: 14-15). ^
Tuy nhien, thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" chi dugc "chinh tri hda"
va thu hiit sy quan tam ciia du luan the gidi tir khi Tong thdng My Donald Trump md
Thong Hn Khoa hgc xa nvi. aw .
dau bai phat bieu tai Dien dan Hgp tac Kinh td chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC) td chuc tai D a N i n g (Viet Nam) thang 11/2017 bang viec bay td sy vinh hanh dugc "hien dien tai Viet Nam - ttai tun cua khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" (honor to be here in Vietnam - in the very heart of Indo- Pacific) (Shoufeng, 2017). Trong chuydn cong du gan hai tuan d chau A, dng Trump da lien tuc sir dung thuat ngii nay nhu cd ham y ve chien lugc mdi ciia My d khu vyc v i n thudng dugc biet den la chau A - Thai Binh Duong (Asia - Pacific) nay dugc gan vdi An Do Duong. Sau do. My da Ian lugt cdng bd "Chidn lugc An ninh Qudc gia"
va "Chidn lugc Qudc phdng" mdi, ttong dd khang dinh su uu tien cua nudc nay vdi khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong (Rabena,2018).
Cd the ndi, viec sir dung khai niem "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" da cho thay mdt su thay doi trong "ban dd tu duy" ve the gidi duai gdc nhin chien lugc cua My cho thap nien thii ba cua the ky XXI. My timg sir dung cum tii "An Do - chau A Thai Binh Duong" nhu mgt each de dam bao vi the chien lugc ve mat dia ly ciia minh (Deni, 2013: 77-86), song cudi cimg hg da phai sir dung lai thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Duong". Tir khi My chinh thuc cdng nhan, thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" da dugc nang len tam vdc mdi va ttd thanh mgt dinh hudng chien lugc mdi cua the ky XXI. Vdi My, viec md rgng khai niem nay da chinh thiic thira nhan An Do la mdt nhan td ldn ttong nhung dien bien dia chinh tti ttong khu vyc, ddng thdi phan nao the hien sy khac biet so vdi chinh sach "Tai can bang" ciia chinh quydn Obama trudc day (Xem: Cronin: 2017).
Trong bdi canh "An Do Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong: Ty do va rgng md", viec hinh
thanh lien minh giiia bdn nudc Nhat Ban, An Do, Uc va My cd chung Igi ich va su phat ttidn d khdng gian chidn lugc nay ttd thanh chii dd dugc quan tam. Day la cac nudc thanh vien cua nhdm "Ddi thoai an ninh bdn ben" (ggi t i t la nhdm "Bd tu" hay
"Tir giac kim cuong") dugc hinh thanh ttr nam 2007 do sang kidn ciia Thix tudng NhSt Ban Shinzo Abe (Brewster, 2014: 155). Sy tham gia cua bdn nudc dudng nhu cd vai trd ngang nhau, tuy nhien, quan diem ciia bdn nudc vd An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong lai khdng hoan toan gidng nhau. Trong khi Mf cimg quan diem vdi Uc khi cho rang An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong la khu vuc ttai tir bd Tay nucrc nay tdi bd Tay An Do, thi Nhat Ban Iai cd gdc nhin rdng hon khi md rdng tdi tan bd Ddng ciia chau Phi. Mac dil bdn nudc nay deu mong mudn tim kiem c a chd dam bao hda binh, thinh vugng va quyen lgi qudc gia trong khu vuc, theo dudi va duy tti Igi ich toan cau, trong do chii ttgng "ty do hang hai", tuy nhien hg dudng nhu v i n chua the nhat tti ve tien ttinh, cau tnic hay the che phu hgp cho xu hudng chien lugc mdi nay. Allan Gyngell - mdt hgc gia Uc - cho rang: "Tat nhien, chang cd khu vyc nao ggi la An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Gidng nhu chau A - Thai Binh Duong, hoac ban than chau A, An Do -Thai Binh Duong chi don gian la de cac chinh phu xay dung khuon khd cho mgt moi trudng qudc te moi, phu hgp vdi muc tieu chinh sach cua hg ttong nhung trudng bgp cu the" (Gyngell, 2018). Cd the hieu, mdi qudc gia deu cd gang dinh hinh cau tnic An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong theo each rieng cua minh nham phuc vu lgi ich kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh trong mdt khu vyc rgng Idn hon, va ciing la co hgi de tao su lien ket cua nhieu qudc gia cd cimg Igi ich chien lugc.
Didm chung ma nhieu ngudi cho rang se tao mdi lien ket bdn nudc, ngoai nhirng mue tieu be ndi la "tu do, thinh vugng, rdng mcr", dd chinh la de Idem che sy banh trudng anh hudng ciia Trung Qudc von da lan rgng ra ca hai khu vyc Thai Binh Duong va An Do Duong. Tuy nhien, each nhm nhan van de nay ciing cdn nhieu ttanh cai. Mac dii vay, mgt diem chung ndi bat cd the thay rd: du cdn khac biet ve quan diem nhung ca bdn nudc deu ung hg va nhan manh vai ttd trung tam ciia An Do ttong tam nMn chien lugc mdi. "Y tudng ve An Do Ducmg - Thai Bmh Duong va de xuat An Do phai tham gia dinh hinh can can quyen lyc chau A bat ngudn tir qua kbit" (https://economictimes.indiatimes.
com/news/defence/donald-trumps-china- visit-us-defends-indo-pacific-concept/
articleshow/61564716.cms), va hien tai An Do phai the hien vai ttd cua minh manh me han.
3. Khong gian dia chien lirgc "An Do Dinmg - Thai Binh Dmrng" trong tam nhin va chinh sach cua An Do thM Narendra Modi
An Do da tiep can khai niem "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" tir rat sam, khi khing dinh su hien dien va lgi ich chien lugc cua minh d ca hai dai duong ldn, the hien ro nhit d "Chirih sach hudng Ddng"
(Look East Policy) khdi ddng tu dau thap nien 1990 va nay da chuyen thanh Chinh sach "Hanh dgng huang Ddng" (Saint- Mezard,2016: 177-190).
Tir khi len nam quyen, Thu tudng Narendra Modi rit than ttgng ttong viec sir dung thuat ngG "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong", va ciing ttanh xem day nhu mgt chien lugc Hen quan den an ninh. Ke ttr nam 2017, Thii tudng Narendra Modi va cac CO vSn ciia dng da sir dung thuat ngii
"An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" thudng xuyen han. Trong cudc gap cap cao giiia
Tdng thdng Donald Trump va Thu tudng Narendra Modi tai Washington (thang 6/2017), hai ben da tuyen bd chung vd viec tao dung mdi quan he ddi tac An Do - My frong bdi canh An Do Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong, theo dd "vdi vai trd la cac ben quan ly cd ttach nhiem d- khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, Tdng thdng Donald Trump va Thu tudng Narendra Modi da nhat tti rang mdt mdi quan he ddi tac chat che giiia My va An Do cd y nghia trung tam ddi vdi hoa binh va sy dn dinh trong khu vyc" (Ministry of External Affairs, 2017). Mac dil vay, An Do van cd ve do dy ve viec ddn nhan y tudng "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg" nhu la mdt co sd gan bd giira An Do va My. Trong kbi An Do xem day nhu la mgt ca hgi de qudc gia nay md rdng sy hien dien toan cau cua minh, thi d chimg myc nao do, hg lai lo ngai ve mdt no lyc cd the cd ciia My nham ldi keo An Do vao mdt Hen minh de kiem che va chong Iai su ma rgng anh hudng cua Trung Qudc d An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg. Trong thdi didm hien tai, An Do khdng mudn tao ra sy cang thing vdi Tnmg Qudc ttong khu vuc, bdi nd cd the de dang dan den su ddi dau true tidp giua An Do va Trung Qudc, lam anh hudng ddn qua trinh "ttoi day" ciia AnDd.
Nhm chung. An Do van img hg quan niem ve mdt "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong: Ty do va rgng md". Dieu nay dugc xac dinh ro ttong cugc gap gd giftaThu tudng An Do Narendra Modi va Thu tudng Nhat Ban Shinzo Abe tai Gujarat (thang 9/2017), hai nudc "cam kdt manh me ve mdi quan he ddi tac dya tten cac gia tti cua hai nudc trong viec dat dugc mdt khu vuc ty do, rdng mo va phdn thinh ma d do chii quydn va lu^t phap qudc td dugc tdn frgng, va nhung bat ddng dugc giai quydt thdng qua ddi thoai,
Thong im luiuu >:
va d dd tat ca cac nuoc, dit Icm hay nhd, deu dugc hudng quyen ty do hang hai va hang khdng, sy phat trien ben viing, va mgt he thdng thuong mai va dau tu ty do, cong bang va cdi md" (https://indianexpress.com /article/india/india-japan-joint-statement -during-shinzo-abes-visit-full-text-narendra -modi-buUet-train-mous-4843849/). Hai nudc Cling nhat tti tang cudng hgp tac an ninh hang hai, cai thien tmh kdt ndi ttong khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Duong rgng ldn hon va tang cudng hgp tac vdi ASEAN frong khudn khd Chinh sach "Hanh ddng hudng Ddng" dugc day manh dudi thdi Thii tudng Narendra Modi. Trong nhan thiic cua An Do, ASEAN van cd vi tti quan ttgng ttong viec duy tri su dn dinh ciia khu vuc, va cd thd ca "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" thdng qua viec that chat mdi quan he An Do - ASEAN (Misbra, 2018: 321- 340). Thii tudng Narendra Modi da khang dinh sy doan ket eua ASEAN la nhan td chu chdt trong viec dam bao mdt tuong Iai dn dinh frong khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Buih Duong. Theo dng, ASEAN da dat nen mdng cho khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong thdng qua hai sang kien quan ttgng la Thugng dinh Ddng A (EAS) va Hiep dinh Kinh te Toan dien Khu vyc (RCEP) (Singh, Sahgal, 2018).
Quan diem cua An Do ve "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" dugc the hien ro nhat thdng qua bai phat bieu ciia Thu tudng Narendra Modi tai Ddi thoai Shangri- La d Singapore (nam 2018) khi cho rang
"An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" la "trai tim" ttong chien lugc ma rdng anh hudng cua An Do. Khdng gian An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong keo dai tir ba bien chau Phi den chau My, bao gom ca khu vyc vimg vinh va cac hdn dao An Do Duong. Sy tham dy cua An Do vao khu vyc nay, bao
gdm nhiing ndn kinh td nang ddng nhat tten thd gidi hien nay, se dugc duy fri bdi ddng luc thiic diy thuong mai va hop tac cling phat tridn. Ong Modi keu ggi thiet lap ttat tu thugng tdn phap luat ttong khu vyc, duy tti chu quydn, toan ven lanh thd cua qudc gia, bao dam sy bmh ding giiia cac nuac, khdng phan biet Icm/nhd, manh/yiu. Trong dd, dng chii trgng ddn quydn ty do hang hai, giao thuong khdng bi gian doan, cac ttanh chip dugc giai quyet mgt each hda binh, tuan thit luat phap qudc te.
Dac biet, Thii tudng Narendra Modi cho ring, viec sii dung cum tir "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" la "khdng nham tdi bit ky mgt qudc gia nao" (am chi Trung Qudc) hay "thanh lap lien minh de thdng tti" (lien he din Bd tii). Vdi each tiep can nhu tten, nhidu ngudi khdng lay lam ngac nhien khi Thu tudng Narendra Modi da khdng dd cap ddn cum tir "Eg tii". Thye te nay phii hgp vdi nhiing ddng thai hien nay ciia An Do, khi qudc gia nay chii ttgng den cac mdi quan he song phuong vdi My, Nh^t Ban va Uc hem la gan ket ttong mdt "Bg hi" ma nhieu ngudi xem la mdt Hen minh gan vdi khdng gian An Do Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong. Doi vai My, An Do van chu truang phat trien mdi quan he ddi tac chidn lugc va xem day la co sd cho su dn dinh va phat frien ciia khu vuc "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong". An Do tiem tien vdi My ke tir sau khi ky ket thda thuan hgp tac hat nhan dan su, nhiing ITnh vyc khac ciing di vao chieu sau, dac biet la sy tang trudng ttong quan he qudc phdng - nhirng ddng thai nay cho thay ro su thay ddi vi fri dja chinh tri cua An Do frong khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, tuong img vdi su vuon len cua quoc gia nay ttong th^p nien thii hai cua the ky XXI. Tuy nhidn, dudi thdi ong Modi, An Do ducmg nhu van
mudn duy tti quan he voi My df muc "ddi tac" chii khdng phai la mdt "ddng rainh"
nhu My mong mudn (Ayres, 2015: 2-3), bdi didu nay cd the anh hudmg den quan he giiia An Do vdi Trung Qudc.
Didm dang chii y la, ttong Idii Thii tudng Narendra Modi ttanh de cap den "Bg hi" va sy gan bd nhu mdt ddng mmh vdi My, tbi dng lai danh gia cao Trung Qudc, bat chap nhung xung dot giiia hai nuac cung nhu mdi quan he than thiet theo kieu ddng minh giiia Trung Qudc va Pakistan - vdn la ddi thu lan nhat cua An Do cr Nam A.
Theo dng, "chac chin chau A va the gidi se cd mgt tuong lai tdt dep hon khi An Do va Trung Qudc cimg hgp tac ttong bau khdng khi huu nghi va tin tudng lan nhau, hieu ro nhiing van de nhay cam Hen quan den lgi ich qudc gia" (Prime Minister's Office - Govemment of India, 2018). Tren thye te, nhiing hanh ddng cua Tnmg Qudc ttong viec md rdng thi trudng, xay dyng co sd ha tang ttong chien lugc Vdnh dai Con dudng anh hudng nhieu den vi the cua An Do d khu vyc, de dan den xung dot. Nhiing hanh dgng nay cua Trung Qudc da lam cham Iai viec phat huy tiem nang cua khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, vdn dugc xem la don bay cho tang trudng kinh te toan cau ttong thdi gian qua. Qua tuyen bd ciia dng Modi cung nhu nhiing hanh ddng cua An Do ttong thdi gian qua, cd the thay An Do dang su dung each tidp can "mem"
ddi vdi Trung Qudc, nham hucmg den xay dyng "long tin" ddi vcri qudc gia nay, qua dd giam thieu nhiing xung dot, ddi dau cd fik anh hudng den lunh anh va su phat trien cua hai nudc. Nhin chung. An Do mong mudn xay dyng mdi quan he hgp tac chien lugc vdi Tnmg Quoc dya tten cac nguyen tac song song ve sy tdn ttgng va tin tudng lan nhau (Xem: Wojczewski, 2016: 22-60).
4. Thay IM ket
Trong chuydn tham gin day ddn chau A vao cudi nam 2017, Tdng thdng My Donald Trump da sir dung thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg" nhu la each cho thd gidi bidt cai nhin diu tien ve chidn lugc dia chinh tti dang hinh thanh ciia My.
Tren thuc te, nhieu ngudi cho rSng, su hinh thanh thuat ngii "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong" chii yeu la each dd tap hgp luc lugng nham kiem che va chong mdt Trung Qudc da cd tham vgng md rdng anh hudng, va tien tdi ddc chiem hai dai ducmg quan ttgng ciia the gidi. Trong do. An Do dugc danh gia la tam diem, cd vai ttd quan frgng ttong khdng gian "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg".
Qua nhiing phan img cung nhu phat bieu cua Thii tudng An Do Narendra Modi, cd the thay An Do da no luc hudng den hinh thanh mgt "luat choi" dya tten su minh bach, binh dang giiia nhiing ngudi tham gia cudc choi, cho dii la nudc ldn hay nudc nhd. Su phat frien ciia An Do cho thay qudc gia nay dang hudmg den xay dyng mdt chinh sach "ddc lap, tu chu" vdi vai ttd la mdt ben dieu tidt cugc choi ttong bdi canh
"An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Duong: Tu do va rdng md". Ve co ban. An Do van chii ttgng xay dung mdt thuc lyc manh, chii ttgng phat ttien kmh te va quan sy, ttong do lyc lugng hai quan dugc chii ttgng nhu mdt lyc lugng chidn lugc frong viec tiep can va bao ve lgi ich ciia An Do d cac vimg dai ducmg.
An Dg chil truong phat tridn quan he vdi cac ddi tac quan trgng cd lien quan ddn khu vuc nay, nam ttong "Bg tii", tuy nhien. An Do khdng xem day la mdt lien minh nhim ddi phd vdi mdt ddi thu nao do.
Trong "Bd tii", quan he vdi My v ^ dugc An Do chii trgng va phat fridn, xem nhu
10
la nen tang cho sy dn dinh, va phat trien cua khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Nhung qudc gia nay chi xem My • la "ddi tac" chii khdng phai "ddng minh".
Trong bdi canh mdi, An Do van danh gia cao vai frd ciia ASEAN trong viec ket ndi va duy tti dn dinh ciia An Do Duong va Thai Binh Ducmg. Viec duy tri quan he vdi ASEAN van nam ttong qua trinh trien khai chinh sach "Hanh ddng hudng Ddng"
cua An Do.
Didm moi dang chit y la viec An Do theo dudi viec can du toan dien vdi Trung Qudc dua tren niem tin rang cd du khdng gian chien lugc d chau A de hd trg su trdi day mang tinh hien tugng cua Trung Qudc va su ttdi day hem nvca ciia An Do theo cdng thiic "win-win". Viec chap nhan khai niem "An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong"
tii An Do cho thay rd nhiing y dd cua nudc nay. Tuy nhien, day mdi chi la nhiing buac di khdi dau, chang dudmg phia trudc vin cdn kha dai, thanh cdng hay khdng khdng chi tiiy thudc vao mong mudn ciia An Do ma cdn phu thudc vao nhieu lihan td khac, trong do ldn nhat van la nhan td Trung Qudc •
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