Thi gidi: v a n d l - Su kien T a p chf c a n g sAwa
BIEN DOI KHI HAU
VA NHUMG HE LUY KHON LUdNG
MINH CHAU
Bien doi khi hdu, mgt dgng thdch thuc an ninh phi truyen thong, dang ngdy cdng tro nen nguy hgi hon tm an ninh phdt trien cua bdt ky quoc gia ndo. Ddc Met, vdi tdn sudt vd mdc do thiet hgi tdng cao cua thdm hga thien nhien lien tuc xdy ra mdi ddy tren khap cdc chdu luc, thi cdc he luy khdn ludng tii Men doi khi hdu cdn duoc nhdn dien ro net hon bao gid hit.
Co so* du bao
Vao nam 1986, Uy ban The gidi ve mdi tiirdng va phat trien cua Lien hgp qudc trong bao cao nhan de "Tuong lai chung cua chiing ta" da du bao, nhiet do trung binh cua Trai dat tiong thd ky XXI se tang tir 1,5°C ddn 4,5°C, tuy thugc vao nd lire cua cgng ddng qudc te tiong viec giam thieu phat thai khi gay hieu irng nha klnh'^^l Dii day chi la mgt trong nhirng du doan ban dau ve bien ddi khi hau, song nd dugc du luan quan tam bdi, dtr bao dugc due nit tu ca sd khoa hgc nghien ciru nghiem tiic ciia mgt nhdm gdm 1.500 nha khoa hgc cd uy tin tren the gioi dugc Lien hgp qudc mdi cdng tac.
Den dau the ky XXI, tiep tuc dua tren ca sd nghien cuu ciia hang tram nha khoa hgc den tir 40 qtidc gia, Nhdm cdng tac 1 - Ban lien Chinh phu ve bidn ddi khi hau (IPCC) da dua ra ban bao cao vl bien doi khi hau, trong dd khang dinh: su Im len cda he thdng khi hau toan cau la dilu ro rang, nhiet do khong khi va nhiet do nudc d cac dai duong tinh trang binh tren toan d u dang tang len; cac ldp tuyet, bang dang tan
Tai chau A: Nam 2010, lu lut vd Id
A A A
ddt a Trung Quoc da ldm chit hon 3.000 ngudi, khien 12 trieu ngudi phdi rdi bd nhd cua. Mua xudn ndm ngodi, vung Tdy Nam Trung Quoc cung da phdi chong trgi vdi mgt trdn kho hgn dugc coi Id toi te nhdt trong vong mot
A A
the ky qua vd sau dd vdng ddt kho hgn ndy lgi bi lu lut tdn phd.
chay tren dien rdng; muc nudc bidn dang dang cao. Theo cac kich ban phat thai khi gay hieu ling nha kinh do IPCC dua ra ciing vdi cac md hinh sir dung ky thuat sd dtr tinh trong hai thap nien tdi thi cir mdi thap nien, nhiet do trung binh cua Trai dit se tang len khoang 0,2°C, tham chi, neu viec khdng che su phat thai cac khi gay hieu irng nha kinh (chu yeu la cac chit
* B6 Ngoai giao
(l)Nguyln Truong Giang: Nhiing phdt trien ciia luat phdp quoc te trong thi ky XXI, Nxb Chinh tri quoc gia, Ha Noi, 2008
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T h i gidi: V^n d l - Su kien T a p chf c a n g sAn
sun-phat sa cap, cac-bon hiiu ca, cac-bon den, ni-ta-rat va bui) dugc duy tri d mirc nam 2000, thi Trai dit vin ndng len khoang 0,1°C.
Ciing theo cac nghien ciru tren, nguyen nhan chinh ciia bien ddi khi hau dugc xac dinh la sir gia tang dang ke ndng do khi nha kinh nhan tao trong khi quyen. Nhiing boat dgng ciia con ngudi, trong dd cd viec sir dung ngudn nang lugng dau md va than da, lam cho khi cac-bon tich tu ngay cang nhieu trong khi quyen Trai dat; sir khai thac triet de dan den can kiet cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, tai nguyen sinh vat sdng, dac biet la tai nguyen rung va nudc - vdn la bg may khdng Id giiip dieu hda khi hau Trai dat; tinh trang d nhiem ngay cang nghiem trgng trong mgi Hnh vtrc mdi tradng nhu khdng khi bien, nudc tren dat lien va nhieu he sinh thai bi mat can bang, khdng cdn kha nang ttr dieu chinh vdn cd ciia minh, gay bien ddi khi hau.
Hau qua nhan tien
Trong thdi gian gan day, cac tham hga thien nhien xay ra d khap noi tren the gidi diu dugc md ta vdi cac danh gia nhu "chua tung cd trong lich su" hay "ldn nhit trong hang thap nien qua", the hien tan suat gia tang thien tai hen tuc, pha va miic do tan pha trade day. Chi rieng tir dau nam 2010 den nay da diln ra tran lut dii dgi chua tirng cd d Pa-ki-xtan, dgt nIng ndng nhit ttr 1.000 nam qua d Nga, Id dit kinh hoang d Trang Qudc, va Trang Au chim trong bien nudc... Nhan loai bang hoang trade nhiing hau qua khiing khiep ma thien tai de lai, cdn cac nha nghien ciiu thi diu cd chung giai thich, day chinh la nhihig hau qua nhan tiln ciia tinh trang bien ddi khi hau da dugc canh bao.
Pa-ki-xtan vira trai qua dgt Iii lut kinh hoang ma hau qua ciia nd dugc nhan dinh la cdn tdi te hon ca tham hga sdng thin nam 2004 d chau A, dgng dit d Pa-ki-xtan nam 2005 va tran dgng dit xay ra gin day d Hai-i-ti. Phd Giam ddc Uy ban Phdng chdng lut bao Pa-ki-xtan A.Tan-vi
Tai chau Phi: Trdn hgn hdn tbi te mua he ndm 2010 khiin tinh trgng ddi ngheo them trdm trgng, dnh hudng tdi 10 trieu ngudi d4 qudc gia Tdy Phi. O Ni-gie, ddt nudc bi dnh hudng ndng ne nhdt, 7,1 trieu ngudi chiu cdnh ddi dn vi mdt gia sue vd miia mdng trong khi gid ngu cdc leo thang gdp dot Trong khi dd, ndm 2009, mua dd dgi dd phd huy
A * A
hoa mdu, khien tinh hinh sdn xudt cdc
A A
logi ngu cdc a cdc quoc gia Tdy Phi bi anh huong nghiem trgng, ke cd nudc ldng gieng Sdt vd Ni-gie-ri-a.
khang dinh, khoang 13,8 trieu ngudi bi anh hudng, trong dd 1.176 ngudi thiet mang, 4.717 ngudi bi thucmg trong dgt Iii lut tdi te nhat trong 80 nam qua tai nudc nay; gan 300.000 ngdi nha bi pha hiiy; khoang 800.000ha dat canh tac den ky thu hoach bi nudc Iii cudn trdi... Dac phai vien cua Lien hgp qudc ve tham hga J.M.Ri-pe dtr doan, Pa-ki-xtan se phai can tdi hang ti USD de khdi phuc nhirng khu vtrc chiu thiet hai, song dieu nay rat khd khi the gidi dang bi tac ddng cua khiing hoang kinh te toan cau.
Trong khi Trang Qudc, Pa-ki-xtan, An Do...
phai gdng minh chdng Iii, nhirng doi nang ndng keo dai, kem theo chay rirng bung len dir dgi trong nhirng ngay dau thang 8-2010 dugc md ta la tdi te nhat trong hon 1.000 nam qua, day nudc Nga vao mdt tham hga chua tung thiy.
Ong O.Ba-dua, mdt quan chuc dac trach theo ddi khi hau cua Td chirc Khi tugng thd gidi ghi nhan rang, nhiet do d Mat-xca-va da lap ky luc cao tuyet ddi (38,2°C cudi thang 7-2010), kd tii khi nudc nay bat dau ghi chep cac dii lieu khi tugng each day 130 nam. Cdn lu lut d Pa-ki- xtan cung la chua tiing cd, ca vl quy md lln mirc dd tac hai. Tuy nhien, dng 6. Ba-dua ciins luu y rang, can phai xem xet nhtrng hien tugng
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T h i gioi: V^n d l - Su kien T a p chf C o n g s a n
cue doan nay trong nhilu nam niia mdi cd the rut ra cac kdt luan vl hau qua ciia bien ddi khi hau.
HIU het cac nha khi tugng hgc cho ring, cac thien tai gin day diln ra d khIp noi tren the gidi khdng nam ngoai nhiing ket luan cua IPCC.
Phd Chu tich IPCC Van Ypec-sen-la giai thich:
nhiing hien tugng nay se tai dien va ngay cang gia tang, nhat la khi khi hau tren trai dat bi xao tidn bdi khi thai gay hieu ung nha kinh.
He luy lau dai
Tuy nhien, su khung khiep ciia nhirng tham hga thien nhien cd nguyen nhan tu bien ddi khi hau khdng chi dirng lai d canh tugng hoang tan, dd nat sau thien tai. Tac hai ghe gdm ciia nd cdn nim d nhirng bat dn ddi vdi cugc sdng ciia mdi con ngudi, mdi qudc gia, tren cac linh vtrc tir an ninh - xa hdi, mdi tradng, kinh te den an ninh chinh tri va phat trien.
Tiing cd so sanh cho ring, tac dgng cua bien ddi khi hau ddi vdi hda binh va an ninh ciia the gidi la rat ldn, khd ludng, lau dai, cd the cdn nghiem tigng ban ca chu nghia khung bd qudc td. Dugc coi la mgt trong nhiing van de mang tinh toan cau, tam anh hudng cda bien ddi Idil hau vugt ra khdi bien gidi qudc gia, khu vtrc, khien cho cac chien luge, bien phap mang tinh qudc gia don le, ke ca cua cac nudc phat trien nhit, khdng the ddi phd mgt each hieu qua ddi vdi thach thirc nay. Nhiing nudc cd nguy co chiu anh hudng nang ne nhat cua cac hien tugng bien ddi khi hau (nudc bien dang, thien tai, thdi tiet diln bidn bit thudng...) chinh la cac qudc gia ven bien.
Theo du bao, ddn nam 2050, khoang 150 trieu ngudi cd the phai rdi khdi nhirng khu vtrc duyen hai do nudc bidn dang, bao lut hoac nudc nggt bi nhilm man. Thang 8-2010, nha nghien ciru ngudi My A.Mu-en-chd thugc Dai hgc Dd- lay-ua cho bidt, mgt khdi bang vinh cuu khong Id CO dien tich 260km2 da tach khdi dai bang ha
a chau My: Thdng 4-2010, trdn lut vd sgt Id ddt dd tdn cong Ri-o dd Gian- ne-ro (Era-xin) sau khi trdn mua nhu trdt nudc chua titng cd trong bon thdp nien qua, khien 212 ngudi bd mgng. Lu lut mgt ldn nua hoanh hdnh trd lgi vdo thdng 6-2010 d cdc bang A-la-godt vd
Aif A
Pd-nam-bu-cd cua An Do, ldm it nhdt 1.000 ngudi mdt tich.
d bic Dan Mach. Tdc do bang tan nhanh se anh hudng true tiep den muc nudc d cac dai duong vdn dang dang cao them 3mm mdi nam, de dga ddn cu dan d cac qudc gia ven bien ciing nhu ddn dien tich dit trdng cay luong thuc tai cac qudc gia nay.
Vdi viec gay ra nhung tham hga toan cau ve thien nhien - mdi tradng, de dga mang sdng hang trieu ngudi, lam bung nd cac lan sdng di CU, tham chi la sir tdn tai cua nhieu qudc gia a vi tri thap han so vdi muc nudc bien, bien ddi khi hau cd the lam xao trdn co cau dia - chinh tri cting nhu khdng gian chien luge d mdt sd khu vuc tren the gidi, tir dd lam thay ddi hinh thai tap hgp lire lugng qudc te.
Ngoai ra, bien ddi khi hau ciing anh hudng manh me den sir phan bd ngudn luc the gidi khi ngay cang cd nhieu qudc gia su dung ngudn tai nguyen nhu mgt loai "vii khi" quan trgng nham mac ca lgi Ich trong quan he qudc te. Bien ddi khi hau lam gia tang su khan hiem, thay ddi qua trinh phan bd cac ngudn tai nguyen thiet yeu, cd tim chien luge quan trgng nhu nudc, dat trdng trgt..., lam tram trgng them cac thach thtrc an ninh phi trayen thdng khae, nhu an ninh luong thuc, an ninh nang lugng, khoang each giau - ngheo..., ttr dd dan tdi nguy co bat dn dinh, xung dot, khiing bd, lam sau sac them cac mau thuan chinh tri -xa hgi d nhieu noi tren the gidi.
Dtr bao den nam 2025, khoang 5 ti ngudi cd the se sdng trong nhiing khu vtrc cd nguy ca cang
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T h i gioi: V^n d l - Su kien T a p chf c a n g sAn
thing, xung dot hen quan ddn sir khan hidm nudc va luong thtrc.
Trong heh su tiing diln ra cac tham kich ciia nhung trilu dai htmg thinh ma nguyen nhan sau xa cung chinh tii cac thien tai thdi tidt. Nha nghien ciru G.Giang thugc Vien Han lam Khoa hgc Trang Qudc da cd mgt nghien ciru cdng phu vl vin dl nay, trong dd so sanh hai nhdm dii heu vl cac bidn ddng chinh tri va bien dgng cd hen quan den tu nhien, khi hau nhu nhiet do thay ddi, lu lut, ban ban, nan chau chiu, gia liia gao...
trong giai doan ban 1.900 nam cua heh sir Trang Qudc. Nghien ciru da tim ra mdi hen he giiia su thay ddi cua thdi tidt, khi hau vdi sd phan ciia cac trilu dai ti-ong lich sir Trang Qudc, theo dd tiidi tidt thay ddi lam giam san lugng luong thtrc, dan den nhirng hdn loan tiong dan chiing, lam suy yeu sue manh ciia tiieu dinh.
Nhung chu trinh ttrong tu khdng chi tdn tai trong lich sir Trang Qudc ma cdn dugc ghi nhan d hau het cac nha nudc ndng nghiep khae tiong the gidi hien dai. Mgt bao cao do cac nha khoa hgc Dire va Thuy Si thtrc hien, tiong khudn khd Chuong trinh Mdi tradng ciia Lien hgp qudc da canh bao, trong ttrong lai mdt sd khu vuc cd thd trd thanh diem ndng ve xung dot do bien ddi khi hau, do la chau Phi, Trang A, An Do, Pa-ki- xtan, Bang-la-det, Trang Qudc, mdt phin khu vtrc Ca-ri-be va My La-tinh. Tai chau Phi, sau thai ky 2025 - 2030, tianh chip nudc giiia Ai Cap va cac qudc gia lang gieng se tid thanh van de khdng the giai quyet, dan den nguy ca xung.
dot cua ca khu vtrc. Trang A, An Do, Pa-ki-xtan va Bang-la-det ciing cd thd xay ra chien tranh nudc.
Trade day nhirng nghien ciru ve tac ddng cua bien ddi khi hau vdi cac cugc chien tai chau Phi chi tap tinng vao lugng mua. Nhtmg mdi day, cac nha khoa hgc cua Dai hgc Ca-li-phodc- ni-a va Dai hgc Xtan-phdt (My) da phan tich ca dir heu ve lugng mua, nhiet do va sd lugng cac cugc xung dot vii trang tai chau Phi tir nam
Of chau Au: Cdc nudc mien Trung vd Dong Au,nhuBa Lan, Hung-ga-ri, Xlo-va-ki-a hdi thdng 5 vd thdng 6-2010 cung phdi chiu dung trdn lu toi te nhdt trong nhieu thdp nien. Nudc Anh phdi trdi qua sdu thdng ddu ndm kho hgn nhdt ki tii ndm 1929; trong khi nudc Nga dang chat vdt ddi phd vdi tinh trgng chdy rdng tren dien rgng do khi hdu kho ndng, gdy thiet hgi 200.000 ha ritng.
1981 tdi nam 2002. Theo New Scientist, nhdm nghien ciru nhan thay cd mdt mdi lien he chat che giua nhiet do va nguy co xung dot vii tiang.
Trong nhiing giai doan ma nhiet do tiling binh tang thi sd lugng cac cugc chien cung leo thang.
Cac tinh toan dua tren md hinh khi hau cho thay, nguy ca chien tranh se tang len 54% trong khoang thdi gian tu nay tdi nam 2030, vdi sd lugng ngudi thiet mang tang them 393.000 ngudi. M.Budc-co va D.Ld-ben, hai tiirdng nhdm nghien ciru cho rang, lugng khi thai se khdng giam trong ngan ban nen nhiet do trai dat cdn tang, san lugng luong thtrc se giam do cay trdng sinh tradng kem hon cung nhu.nang suat lao ddng trong nhieu nganh kinh te khae ciing giam. Tinh trang dd khien kinh te tut ddc, gay ra cang thang xa hgi va nguy ca xung dot gia tang.
Theo mdt nghien ciru dugc cdng bd nam 2008 ciia To chtre Bao dgng qudc te, 46 qudc gia, khoang 2,7 ti ngudi, cd nguy co cao ve xung dot bao luc do bien ddi khi hau va cd tdi 56 qudc gia khae cung cd nguy ca bat dn chinh tri.
"Dang SO hon dai chiin the gidi"
Day la nhan dinh dugc cuu Thii tuong Anh G.Brao dua ra tai Hdi nghi qudc td vl bidn ddi khi hau diln ra d Luan-ddn cudi nam 2009. Ong
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Thi gidi: v a n d l - Su kien T a p chf C d n g sAn
G. Brao khang dinh, tinh tiang Im len cua Trai dat cd the gay nen mgt cugc khiing hoang kinh td ma muc do thiet hai vat chit ciia nd ldn hon ca hai cugc chidn tranh thd gidi va cugc dai suy thoai 1929 -1933 cgng lai. Nhan dinh ciia dng G. Brao cung dugc nhilu nha lanh dao cac nudc chia se. Theo dng G. Brao, hau qua ciia bien ddi khi hau la nguy ca vl mat nhan dao, sinh thai va kinh td. Neu khdng ngan ehan nhirng tac dgng tdi te nhat ciia bien ddi khi hau, GDP toan cau se giam 20%.
Dieu lo ngai hon la chinh trong bdi canh cap thiet do, mdt hdi nghi quan trgng va dugc du luan ky vgng hon - Hgi nghi thugng dinh ve bien ddi khi hau do Lien hgp qudc chii tri vao thang 12-2009 tai Cd-pen-ha-gen (Dan Mach) da khdng dat dugc su ddng thuan ciia cac nudc trong viec tim ra mdt thda thuan mdi ve bien ddi khi hau, tiiay the Nghi dinh thu Ki-d-td se het hieu lire vao nam 2012. Nhiing nudc giau khdng mudn chap nhan cac cam ket nghiem ngat tiong viec giam khi thai cac-bon. Trong khi dd, ^nhirng nudc dang phat trien nhu Trang Qudc, An Do tu chdi hanh dgng neu nhdm nudc giau khdng chiu dua ra cam ket.
Thuc chit, ndi dung nhan dinh tren da dugc dng G. Brao trich dan tu Hgi nghi qudc te ve mdi trudng dtrgc td chirc thang 11-2006 tai Nai- rd-bi (Ke-ni-a). Khi dd, hon 100 bd tradng va 6.000 dai bleu la cac nha quan ly, kinh te, khoa hgc da danh gia nhiing thiet hai nang ne do bien ddi khi hau gay ra trong vai thap nien tdi cd the lam giam 20% GDP toan cau, gay ra nhiing dao ldn ve kinh te - xa hgi.
, Nhtrng quan ngai cho tuong lai ciia Trai dat dudng nhu da lang xudng sau that bai cua Hgi nghi Cd-pen-ha-gen thang 12-2009, song gan day nd lai day len sau mdt loat cac thien tai khung khidp va mang tinh chit bat thudng dien ra d nhilu khu vuc tren the gidi trong nira dau nam 2010. Dii vay, vao diu thang 8-2010, mgt phien hgp qudc te ve khi hau d Bon (Dire), nhim chuan bi cho Hgi nghi Can-cun dugc to
B3c Cue: Ddu thdng 8-2010, mgt khoi bang cd diin tich 260 km^ dugc phdt Men da tdch khdi ddng song bang oDan Mgch. Ddy Id ddo bdng ldn nhdt tdch ra d Eac Cue trong niia the ky quan sdt. Nhiet do eua mgt mda he ndng nhdt trong vong 150 nam lich su khi hdu todn cdu dugc coi Id nguyen nhdn gdy ra Men tugng ndy.
chire vao thang 12-2010 d Me-hi-cd ciing cho ket qua khdng may sang sda, chu yeu van do bat ddng lgi Ich qua ldn giira cac nude giau va nudc ngheo trong viec tim ra tieng ndi chung cho van de nay. Muc tieu ca ban ma cac dien dan ve khi hau hudng tdi la: ban che su ndng len ciia khi hau d mirc 2°C, theo dd, vao nam 2020, cac ntrdc cdng nghiep phat trien phai giam 40%
lugng khi thai gay hieu irng nha kinh, nhung thdi gian cho cdng viec khd khan nay chi cdn cd 10 nam. Vdi thtrc tiang do, khd cd the lac quan tin ring, Hdi nghi qudc td d Can-cun dien ra trong 3 thang niia, se cd ket qua lac quan ban cac hgi nghi trtrdc.
Do nhung thach thire da chieu va phirc tap ciia van de nay ciing nhu su khd khan trong viec tim giai phap kha thi ma ndi dung bien ddi khi hau dang dan tid thanh tm tien quan tigng trong chien Itrgc an ninh, ddi ngoai ciia cac ntrdc ldn va dugc cgng ddng qudc te quan tam rdng rai.
Dieu nay ehirng td nhan thiic toan cau ve nhirng nguy CO tiem tang tu van de bien ddi khi hau da cd budc nang cao. Trade khi dat dugc mdt thda thuan toan cau ve van de nay, dieu can thiet hien nay la mdi qudc gia can cd each tiep can va phuang thirc mdi trong hoach dinh va trien khai chinh sach ddi ngoai - an ninh phii hgp de ddi phd vdi bien ddi khi hau, trong dd dac biet chd trgng muc tieu phat tridn "kinh te xanh" ben viing, dua van de bao ve mdi tradng vao viec hoach dinh chinh sach phat trien toan dien ciia qudc gia. •
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