Hffp tac kinh t l ASEAN - Trung Quoc
Nguyen Tien Minh Tdm tat: Trong bdi canh quan hf hgp tdc kinh te ASEAN - Trung Qudc dang tien tnen theo chieu hudng tich cyc, thi vifc nghien cdu thyc ttang hgp tac kinh tl cua Hifp hgi cac qu6c gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN) vdi Trung Quoc dl cd nhung bien phap thuc day sy phat ttiln manh ban n&a moi quan hf nay cd y nghTa quan ttpng. Bai vilt phan tich boi canh, ca chl hgp tac kinh tl, cac nfi dung hgp tac kinh t l giua ASEAN va Trung Quoc tren cac ITnh vyc cu thi nhu thuong mai hang hoa, thuong mai dich vu va dau tu; tu do, chi ra nh&ng van de doi vdi ASEAN va Trung Quic ttong qua ttinh day manh sy hc^ tac nay.
Tir khda: Hgp tac; kinh tl; thuong mai; ASEAN; Trung Quoc.
1. D§t v a n de Nam A va Ddng Bdc A) td chd bj ddnh gid Vdi myc tieu chinh Id tang cudng ddi la khodng tring cua lien kit khu vuc, thoai, thdc day hgp tac d e n nhilu cdp dg, "cham chdn" ttong Ian sdng hdi nhap kinh nhieu ITnh vyc cua ddi sdng kinh tl - xd hgi tl khu vyc so vdi Tay Au va Bdc My vdo nhu thuong mai, tdi chinh, ndng Iugng, nhdng ndm 1970 - 1980 thi ttong nhGng ndng nghifp, mdi trudng, iao dgng, y tl, ndm dau cua thap ky 1990 da cd nhiing vdn hda, du lich, v.v.., tai Hgi nghj Cap cao chuyen biln khd manh theo hudng tdng khdng chinh thdc lan dau tidn gida cdc nhd cudng lien kit kinh tl khu vyc vdi hdng ldnh dao cac nudc ASEAN va Nhdt Bdn,
Hdn Qudc, Trung Qudc, y tudng hinh thdnh md rgng hgp tdc ASEAN sang cdc nudc ttong khu vyc, trudc hdt la vm cac nudc Ddng Bdc A, dd dugc ldnh dao cdc nudc ung hg. Trong tidn trinh do, hgp tac kinh te thuang mai ASEAN vdi Trung Qudc dd cd nhdng budc phdt tnen mdi, gdp phdn thuc diy tdng trudng kinh td ttong khu vyc.
2. Boi canh cua hop tac kinh tl ASEAN - Trung Quoc
Tu nhihig ndm 1980 vd ddc bift Id sau khi T 6 chdc Thuong mai Thi gidi (WTO) ra ddi ndm 1995, Ian sdng hgi nhdp kinh tl khu vyc lai bdng phdt vdi nhilu bilu hifn mdi vd quy md, muc dd vd pham vi dja \f.
Ridng khu vyc Ddng A (bao gdm Ddng
loat thod thuan thuong mai ty do khu vyc va song phuong ra ddi hoac dang ttong qud ttinh dam phdn md dac bift chuin bj cho vifc hinh thdnh cgng ddng kinh tl todn khu vyc - Cdng ddng kinh tl Ddng A (EAEC).
Trudc cudc khung hodng tdi chinh Chdu A 1997 - 1998, nhieu quan didm da cho ring ASEAN se thu minh lai vd dyng len "bdc tudng" bao hg mau djch. Song, trdi Igi, ASEAN khdng nhiing diy manh hom tiln ttinh ty do hda thuong mai ndi khdi ma cdn tich cue md rgng lien kit kinh tl - thuang mai d Ddng A vdi vifc hinh thdnh mang ludi cac Khu vyc mau djch ty do vdi cdc '"' Tiln sT, Tni6ng D^i hgc Kinh tS, D^i hgc Qu6c gia m Nfi. DT: 097359998. Email: [email protected].
Tgp chi Khoa hgc xa hpi Vi?t Nam, so 10(95) - 2015
ddi tac quan ttgng d khu vyc (FTA + 1) nhu: Trung Qudc, Nhdt Ban, Han Qudc, An Do, Australia vd New Zealand; ddng thdi tich cue thuc ddy nhilu chuong trinh hgp tdc kinh t l , thuang mai da dang vdi cdc ddi tac Idn nhu My, Canada, lien minh Chau Au (EU), Nga.
Trong quan hf hgp tac cua ASEAN vdi cdc ddi tac ttong ASEAN + 3 (ASEAN vdi Trung Qudc, Nhat ban, Hdn Quoc) thi quan hf kinh t l , thuong mai giua ASEAN va Trung Qudc da ldn manh nhanh chdng, d^c bift Id sau Hifp dinh khung v l Hgp tae Kinh t l todn dien dugc ky vdo thdng 11 ndm 2002 nhdm thilt lap khu vyc mdu djch ty do ASEAN - Trung Qudc (ACFTA).
M§c dCi, myc tieu hidn thyc hda ACFTA vao ndm 2010 ddi vdi Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Smgapore, Thai Lan va Trung Qudc, va \ho nam 2015 doi vdi Campuchia, Ldo, Myanma vd Vift Nam chua ttd thdnh hifn thyc, nhung cdc ngi dung hgp tdc kinh t l , thuong mai gifta cdc ben lien quan dd va dang dugc trien khai tich cyc. Chinh vi vay, gifta nhiing gam mdu dm d ^ cua bdc tranh kinh t l thi gidi, ASEAN ndi Idn nhu mdt diem sang, van duy tri mdc tdng trudng tdng sdn phdm quic ndi (GDP) ttung binh la 5% - 6% k l ca trong thdi ky khd khan trong nhung ndm 2011 - 2012, vd ciing chinh sy ddng thuan cao ttong vifc kit ndi gifta ASEAN vdi khu vyc Ddng Bdc A da cd tdc dung ho ttg ddc lye cho tidn trinh hdi nhap vd xay dyng C0ng ding ASEAN, ddng thdi dam bdo vai trd trung tdm ciia ASEAN trong ciu tnic khu vyc ndng dgng dang hmh thdnh.
3. CAc Cff che quan hf hop tac ASEAN - Trung Quoc
Khu vyc mau djch ty do ASEAN - Trung
Qudc la mgt thda thudn thuong mai khu virc cd y nghia toan cdu, xet vd quy md thmmg mai giua hai ben chiem 13,7% thuong mai todn cdu va gdn mgt nua tdng kun ngaeh thuong mai ciia Chdu A. Tai Hdi nghj Thugng dinh ASEAN + 3 lin thd ba thang 11 - 2000 d Brunei, cdc nha lanh dao cac nudc thdnh vien ASEAN vd Trung (Julc da phe chuin d l xuit vd mgt hiep djnh hgp tac kinh t l khung vd thidt lap mdt khu vuc mau dich tu do ASEAN - Trung Qudc ttong vong 10 nam vd xac dinh 5 Iinh vyc iru tien hpp tdc la ndng nghifp, cdng nghf thdng tin, vien thdng, dau tu hd trg va phdt trien luu vuc sdng Me Kdng. Ngdy 4 thdng 11 nam 2002, Hifp djnh da dugc chinh thdc ky kit tai Phnom Pdnh, Campuchia.
Cho den nay, co che quan he ciia ASEAN vdi cac nudc ngodi ASEAN da dugc thilt lap dudi cac hinh thdc: cac ben ddi thoai day dii, quan sat vidn va cac ben ddi thoai theo ITnh vyc. Hang nam, ASEAN ddu td chdc cdc cudc gdp chinh thuc d c^
Bg trudng vdi cac nudc ddi thoai trong dip Hdi nghi thudng nien cac Bd ttuong ASEAN. Day la co c h l g|ip gd thudng nien sau Hdi nghj Ngoai trudng ASEAN vdi cac thdnh p h i n tham dy gdm cdc Ngoai trudng ASEAN va cac Ngoai trudng cua cdc nucic ddi thoai. Hien nay, giiia ASEAN va Trung Qudc dang xhn tai 5 kdnh ddi thod song phuang CO ban, do la cac co chd: ddi thoai chinh trj cao c i p , Uy ban hgp tdc hon hgp ttong ITnh vyc kinh t l - thuong mai, Uy ban hgp tac hon hgp v l khoa hgc - cdng ngh^
va Uy ban ASEAN tai Bdc Kinh. Cy thi:
- Ddi thoai chinh trj c i p cao (ACSOPC):
CO c h l nay dugc thilt lap ndm 1995 tmdc khi Trung Qudc ttd thdnh nudc ddi tho?i d i y dii cua ASEAN va hgp moi ndm mot
Hap tac kinh li ASEAN - Trung Quoc lan. Cho den nay (H dien ra nhiSu vong d6i
tho^i chinh tri giiia c4c quan chiic c4p cao ciia ASEAN \k Trung Qu6c. Noi dung c4c cupc doi thoai chinh tri cap cao giiia hai b6n thuong la c4c vSn de an ninh, chinh tri cua khu vuc va qu6c tS ma ca hai ben cvmg quan tam. D5i thoai chinh tri gin la Hpi nghj Bo trudng Ngoai giao giiia ASEAN lan thii 44 v6i c4c d6i tac vd H0i nghi Diln dan Khu vuc ASEAN 14n thti 18 dien ra tai Bali, hidonesia, tit ngay 19 din ngiy 23 thang 7 nam 2011. Tai HOi ngh), Bp trudng Ngoai giao cac nuoc ASEAN \k cac ben d6i thogi ban c ^ bi^n phap, dinh hirdng diy mjnh xSy dimg Cpng dAng ASEAN, gia tang lien kSt, thuc day quan h? giiia ASEAN v6i cie d6i tac, ciing nhu trao dii \i c4c vin dS khu vyc vk qudc tS cing quan tSm. Ngoii ra, cac hpi nghj lin niy con la mpt budc chuin bi cho H0i nghj Cip cao ASEAN 19 va cac cap cao lien quan dupe t6 chiic trong thang 11/2011 tgi Bali, Indonesia.
- Uy ban hpp tic hSn hpp (ACCC): dupe thanh l?p vao nam 1997 co vai tro diSu phdi tit ca cdc CO ch§ ddi thogi khac bao gom cac hoat dpng hpp tie thu0c ITnh v\rc kinh t6 va hpp tac chuyen nganh gi&a ASEAN va Tnmg Qu6c.
- Oy ban hpp tic hSn hpp trong cac ITnh vuc kinh te - thuong mgi va khoa hpc - cdng nghp (cip thii trudng): ca hai IJy ban nay diu dupe thanh lap trudc khi Trung Qu6c trd thinh nudc ddi thoai ciia ASEAN vi ch}U tiich nhi^m de xuat cac bi$n phip thiic diy svr hpp tic song phuong tren cie ITnh vvc kinh tl - thuong mai vi khoa hpc - cdng ngh?.
- Uy ban ASEAN tgi B5c Kinh: Uy ban ASEAN tgi cac nurdc ddi thoai dupe thinh lap thing 9 nSm 1996 vdi myc dich ting
cudng trao ddi va thiic day mdi quan he giua ASEAN vdi cie nudc ddi thogi vi cac td chuc qudc tl.
- Hiep dinh vl thuang mai hang hda va Thda thuan co chl giai quyet tranh chip gitta ASEAN vi Trung Qudc ky thing 11 nam 2004 tgi Vieng Chin. Hiep dinh vl thuong mai hang hda bat dau cd hieu lire tir thing 7 nam 2005.
- Hipp dinh thuong mai dich vu duoc ky ben ll Hdi nghi Thupng dinh lin thii 10 ASEAN - Trung Qudc vio thing 1 nam 2007 tai Cebu, Phillippmes va cd hiSu lye tir ngay ngiy 1 thing 7 nam 2007.
- Uy ban Dim phin thuong mgi ASEAN - Trung Qudc di hoin tit thuang lupng vl Hipp dinh diu tu ASEAN - Trung Qudc vio thing 11 nim 2008, va ky kit hipp dinh nay trong khudn khd Hdi nghi cie Bd trudng kinh tl ASEAN lin thii 41 vao thing 8 nim 2009 tai Bangkok, Thii Lan. Dieu nay ddng nghia vdi vile cie tien trinh dam phan gifta ASEAN - Trung Qudc vl khu vuc mgu dich tu do da dupe hoin tat theo nhu Hi?p dinh khung ve Hpp tac Kinh te toin dien gifta ASEAN vi Trung Quic dgt ra.
- Ben canh dd, cie hdi nghi tham van nhim hoan tit Bien bin ghi nhd (MOU) so bp ve viec thanh lap trung tam ASEAN - Trung Qudc dang duoc thuc hien. Cac hpi nghi tham vin nhim dua ra Bien ban ghi nhd chinh thiic trong luih vuc sd hiiu tri tue va cie rao cin ky thuat trong thuong mai (TBT) cung dang dupe tien hinh.
Ngiy 10 thing 4 nam 2015, Hdi nghi lin thii 16 Uy ban hpp tac chung ASEAN - Trung Qudc (JCC) dien ra tai Jakarta da khing dinh cam kSt hpp tic chat che hon nhim hudng tdi mdi quan he hieu qui vi th\ic chit. Cudc hpp JCC hing nam li mdt 45
Tgp chi Khoa hoc xa hgi Vifl Nam, so 10(95)-2015 CO chl quan trpng de danh gii va thio lugn vl dinh hudng tuong lai cda hpp tic ASEAN - Trung CJudc. Hdi nghi ghi nhin nhihig dpng luc manh me de tang cudng hon niia quan he ASEAN - Trung Quoc.
Hai ben da dat dupe nhiing tien bp dang ke trong viec th\rc hi?n cac hoat dpng vi cie dv in thupc Chucmg trinh ASEAN - Trung Quoc hien tgi cua kl hogch hinh ddng giai dogn 2011 - 2015, ddng thdi cdng nhan S\T cin thiet thiic diy tiln dp thirc hipn ddi vdi nhftng phin vi$c cdn lgi trong ke hogch.
ASEAN vi Tnmg Qudc dang thong qua mpt ke hogch hanh dpng de thiic diy hpp tic hx)ng nam nSm tilp theo (2016 - 2020).
Cie hogt dpng vi eac du in cho giai dogn tiep theo tgp trung thuc hipn mong mudn vi cam kit ting cudng quan h^ doi tic chiln lupc cua ci hai ben va ddng gdp cho Tim nhin ASEAN sau 2015. Hai ben cung ghi nhgn cie tiln bd dat dupe trong vi^ th\re hipn eic quylt dinh cua Hdi nghj Cip cao ASEAN - Trung Qudc lin thii 15, nhu vipc ning cip Hipp dinh Thuong mgi tu do ASEAN - Trung Qudc, cac kit qui hpp tic trong ITnh vyc y te cdng cdng, khoa hpc vi cdng nghp... Hpp tic phat triln khu vyc li mdt uu tien quan trpng tiong hpp tic ASEAN - Trung Qudc. Vai trd eiia Trung Quoc trong v i ^ ddng gdp vio s(r phit triln ciia ASEAN bang each tii trp cho cie hogt dOng vi cac dii in cd hen quan thdng qua Quy Hpp tic ASEAN - Tnmg Quoc da dupe cdng nhgn bdi cie nudc thinh vien ASEAN.
4. Hjp tic kinh te ASEAN - Trung Quoc trong khudn kbi ASEAN + 3
Ttong khudn khd ASEAN+3, hpp tie trong Hnh vyc kinh tl, thuong mgi trd thanh mdt diem sing, khdng nhung gdp phin thiic day hpp tic kinh tl, thuong mgi, diu tu
giiia ASEAN vdi cac ddi tic Ddng BSc A, mi cdn tgo dpng \vc cho su tang tnidng kinh tl d khu vvc Chau A. Trong do, ASEAN vi Trung Qudc da trd thanh nhiing ddi lie thuong mgi va diu tu hing diu cua nhau.
Tha nhdt, kim nggch thuang mgi liai chiiu giua ASEAN va Trung Quoc.
K I tir khi Trung Qudc buih thudng h6a quan h^ vdi cie nudc ASEAN, vipc buoa bin giiia hai ben ngiy cing dupe eic chinh phu quan tim, thiie diy, md rpng, thong qua cie hipp dinh thuong mgi chmh thiic gifta cae chinh phu. Vi viy, tiong nhihig nim qua, hpp tic kinh tl va thuong maj giiia ASEAN vi Tnmg Qudc di dgt dupe nhiing thinh tim ding chii y, trong do ngo^
thuong li d$ng l\rc quan trpng cho sir phit triln kinh tl giQ:a hai ben. Trong giai do^n niy, quan hp thuang mgi gifta ASEAN vi Trung Qudc bat diu khdi sic vi phit triln qua eic nam. Kim nggch thuong mai giiia Trung Qudc vi cac nudc ASEAN til 8,4 ty USD ciia nam 1992, sau bdn nam da tang gip ddi vi dgt 16,7 ty USD trong nim 1996. Sau dd moi nim ting them mpt budc mdi vi vupt miic 20 ty USD nira 1997;
23,5 ty USD nim 1998, hon 30 ty USD nam 2000. Xuit khiu ciia Trung Quoc sang ASEAN tang tir 4,1 ty USD tajng nim 1991 len khoang 18,1 tj USD nam 2000, trong khi nhgp khiu cua Trung Qu6c tic cac nudc ASEAN chi tang tit 3,8 t^ USD ttong nam 1991 len khoang 14,2 tj- USD nSm 2000. Trong giai dogn nay, thi ph^ '"'^' khiu ctia cac nudc ASEAN - 5 mdi chi chiem 9,8% tdng kim nggch xuit khiu ciia Trung Qudc vi thj phin nhip khiu ciia cac nudc niy chi chilm 6,1% t6ng kim ngaeh nhgp khiu ciia Trung Qudc. Ngupc lgi, thj phan xuit khiu cua Trung Qu6c ttong
Hgp tdc kinh ti ASEAN- Trung Quoc thuong mgi cua ASEAN chilm 3,46% t6ng
kim nggch xuit khau eua ASEAN vi 5,24%
ddi vdi nhgp khiu. Nam 2002, song song vdi vipc ra ddi co chl Hpi nhgp kinh tl ASEAN + 3, Hipp djnh khung hpp tic kinh tl toin di$n ASEAN - Trung Qudc da thuc diy quan he kinh tl, dac bipt la thuong mgi gifta hai thuc thi niy phat triln lit nhanh.
So vdi giai dogn tnrde thi thuang mgi ciia ASEAN sang thj hirdng Trung Qu6c khoang 23,57 ty USD nim 2002, tang tuang dng li 28,3% vi 34,4% so vdi nim 2001. Nam 2003, xuat khau cua Trung Qudc sang ASEAN li 30,93 tj USD, ting 31,23%, nhip khau tu ASEAN la 47,33 ty USD, tang 51,7% so vdi nim 2002. Nam 2004, kim nggch mgu djch song phuang tang dang kl, dat mdc 105,9 ty USD, tang 35,1%
so vdi nam trudc. Trong dd, Trung Quoc nhip khiu til ASEAN trj gii 63 ty USD, tang 33,1% so vdi n5m 2003; Tnmg Qu6c xuit khiu trj gia 52,9 ty USD, ting 38,7%
so vdi nam 2003. Nam 2005, Trung Qudc li ddi tic thuang mgi ldn thir 4 ciia ASEAN va ASEAN li dli tic thuang mgi ldn thii 5 ciia Tnmg Qudc. Tnmg Qudc nhip khau 75 ty USD, vi gia tri xuat khiu eiia Tnmg Qudc sang ASEAN dat tdi 55,37 ty USD (trong nim niy Tnmg Quoc hi tham hyt 19,63 ty USD). NSm 2008, kim nggch thuong mgi Trung Quic ASEAN dat 231,12 !>• USD, ting 14% so vdi nam ttudc vi ASEAN da trd thinh ban hang thuang mgi ldn thir tu ciia Tnmg Qudc sau Chau Au, My vi Nhgt Bin. ASEAN thu hiit sy quan tim cua cac doanh nghipp Tnmg Qudc va Trung Quoc coi ASEAN li khu vyc quan trpng khuyin khich cie doanh nghidp Tnmg Quoc thye hipn da dgng hda thi tnidng d nudc ngoii. Thing 1 nim 2010,
kim nggch xuit khiu sang ASEAN eiia Tnmg Qudc li 10,55 ty USD, tang 52,8%, kim ngaeh nhap khiu tir ASEAN cua Trung Qudc la 10,93 ty USD, tang 2,2 lin. Do nhip khau sin phim ASEAN vdi sd luong ldn, Trung Qudc nhip sieu tft ASEAN li 380 hipu USD, trong khi dd, cimg ky nim 2009, Tnmg Qudc xuit sieu vdi ASEAN Ii 1,87 ty USD. Trong nim 2010, thuong mgi giua ASEAN vi Trung Qudc cho thiy su phuc hdi manh sau dpt suy giam ciia nim 2009 do cudc khimg hoing kinh te tii chinh toin ciu. Xuit khiu cda ASEAN sang Trung Qudc ting 39,1%, tir 81,6 ty USD nam 2009 len 113,5 ty USD nim 2010, vi Trung Qudc da trd thinh thi trudng xuat khau Idn thii hai eiia ASEAN.
Nhap khiu ting 21,8% tft 96,6 ty USD trong nam 2009 len 117,7 ty USD trong nam 2010. ASEAN li ddi tie thuang mgi ldn thii 4 eua Trung Quic, chilm 9,8%
tdng giao dich thuang mgi ciia Trung Qudc. Tinh' din nfta diu nam 2011, ASEAN da vuon 16n trd thanh doi tic thuong mgi ldn thft 3 ciia Trung Qudc.
Theo bio cio cua Hpi ddng thuang mgi Trung Qudc - ASEAN, kim nggch thuang mgi hgi chieu gifta ASEAN - Tnmg Qudc nam 2014 dgt miic 480 ty USD, tang 8,3%
so vdi nam 2013 vi mftc tang niy cao gip 2,5 lin so vdi mftc ting trudng thuang mgi ehung ciia Trung Qudc. ASEAN hien li ddi tic thuang mgi ldn thii 3 ciia Tnmg Qudc, ddng sau cac nudc EU va My, chiim han 11% tdng kim nggch thuong mgi ciia Trung Qudc. Nam 2014 Vipt Nam da vuon len Vca thanh doi tac thuang mgi ldn thft 2 (chi diing sau Malaysia) va li thj trudng xuit khiu ldn nhat cua Trung Qudc trong eic nudc ASEAN, vdi kim nggch thuong mgi 47
Tgp chi Khoa hgc xd hgi Vifl Nam, sd 10(95) - 2015 hai chilu dgt hon 83 ty USD, ting 27%, trong dd Trung Qudc xuit khiu sang Vipt Nam hon 63 ty USD va nhgp khiu hon 19 tyUSD.
Trong thdi gian gin diy, m^c du long tin chmh tri cua mdt sd qudc gia ASEAN ddi vdi Trung Qudc ed bi suy giim, nhung thuang mai giua ASEAN Trung Quic nam 2014 van tSng cao, hon ci tdc do tang trudng thuong mgi chung ciia Trung Qudc.
Die biet, toe dp tang midng thuong mgi giiia Trung Qudc - Philippines, Trung Qudc - Viet Nam tilp tuc tang trudng cao, dilu dd chirng td quan h? chinh tri khdng anh hudng den xu hudng hpp tic mgnh me gifta ASEAN vi Trung Qudc.
Nhftng so lieu tren eho thay, hpp tic kinh tl thuong mai gitta ASEAN vi Trung Qudc da phit triln mgnh mS trong thdi gian dii vfta qua vi da trd thinh try ept quan trpng cua quan hp dli tie chien lupc ASEAN - Trung Qudc. Trung Qudc hipn li ddi tic thuang mgi ldn nhat cua ASEAN vi cac nudc ASEAN la ddi tac thuang mgi ldn thu 3 cua Tnmg Quoc. Nim 2015, quan h^ kinh te thuong mai gifta ASEAN va Tnmg Quoc dupe dy bao s5 tilp tyc phit trien manh mS vi ning len tim cao mdi khi nhilu cu hich quan trpng ttong quan hp song phuong s6 xuat h i ^ ttong nam nay.
Trong thdi gian tdi, hpp tie kinh tl ASEAN Trung Qudc se ddn nhin nhitag co hdi mdi khi Cpng dong kinh tl ASEAN (AEC) dupe hinh thinh vio eudi nSm 2015; dim phin phien bin nang cip Khu thuong mgi ty do Trung Qudc - ASEAN vi Hiep dinh Dli tic kinh tl toin dien khu vyc (RCEP) diu dy kiln se hoin thinh vio cuoi nim 2015 ciing la nam hpp tac biln Trung Qudc - ASEAN. Do dd, quan he hpp tac kinh te thuong mai gifta ASEAN va Trung Qudc
chic chin se tilp tyc phit ttiln mgnh me vi len tim cao mdi ttong nim nay.
Tha hai, ca cdu mat hang xudt khdu chu yiu cua ASEAN sang Trung Qudc.
Nlu nhu ttong nhiing nim diu th|p ky 1990, nim mat hang xuat khiu chii lye eia eic nudc ASEAN sang Trung Qudc li xing diu, gS, diu thyc vit, miy tinh/miy m6c vl trang thilt W dipn ehilm tdi 75,7% ting xuit khiu cua ASEAN sang Tnmg Qufic, thi tft nam 1993 din 1999, ty ttpng eiia timg mat hing trong nhdm hang xuit khiu chu lye ciia ASEAN sang thi trudng Tnmg Quoc ed sy thay doi ding ke. Ty tipng eic hing hda thdng thudng giim xudng va ty ttpng hing chl bien ed him lupng cong nghe cao tang ISn, vdi vipc hing may tinh/miy mdc va thilt bi di$n ting tir 12,4%
len tdi 38,2% tong xuit khiu ciia ASEAN sang Trung Quoc. Cac san phim xuit khiu mi cie nude ASEAN cd Ipi the nhit li san phim khoang san (bao gom nhien li^u khoang sin), do nhya/cao su, go va cie san pham do go, bpt giay, chit beo vi dau thyc vgt, do nhya. Cac sin pham niy chiem ty le cao, 42% ttong kim nggch nhgp khau cua Trung Qudc tir cae nude ASEAN. Trong khi dd, mat hing niy chi chilm 11,6% tong kim nggch xuit khau ciia Tnmg Quoc sang thj ttTidng ASEAN ttxing nim 2000. Cac ITnh vyc khac ma thuang mai cdng nghi?p gifta hai ben ehilm ty trpng ldn bao gom may mdc vi thilt bj dd di^n, hda chit, cac ttang thiet hi im nhac, do dgc vi ttang thiet bj vl thj giac. Trong dd may mdc vi trang thilt bi dien chilm 39% tdng kim ngaeh xuit khiu cua Tnmg Qudc sang thi tniimg cie nude ASEAN va 41% tdng kim ng?ch nhap khiu eua Trung Qudc tft thi tti^f ASEAN. Trong 2,88 ty USD miy mM.
thilt hi dien Trung Qudc nhap tft Malaysia
Hgp tdc kinh ti ASEAN - Trung Qudc thi cd hon mdt nua s6 ndy la dng thu hmh
(hay mdy quay phim truyen hmh), may thu thanh bdn dSn, mach di^n tich hgp, va trdn 40% la mdy mdc thilt bj di^n. Mdt hang nhap khdu nhu may thu thanh bdn dan, mach di?n tich. Cdc linh ki^n va thilt bj di$n khdc chilm ty I§ cao trong kim ngaeh nhap khdu mdy mdc thilt bj didn tu Philippines, Singapore va Thdi Lan. Dac bi^t la ttong ngi khoi cdc nudc ASEAN ciing cd sy khdc nhau trong ca ciu mdt hang xuit khiu sang Trung Qudc. Cd thi kl mgt so m^X hang chd ylu dugc xuit khiu sang Trung Quoc td cac nudc ASEAN Id:
m§t hdng chl tgo may (mdy tinh/mdy mdc, thilt bj di^n tu viin thdng), m%\ hang gS chl biln, m?it hdng nhidn li^u khoang sdn (dau khi), m|it hang cdy cdng nghidp: nhu cao su, cg, mdt hang rau qua va diu ddng/
thyc vat, m^t hdng thdy san,
TTiM- ba, ca cdu mgt hdng nhgp khdu chu yiu cua cdc nu&c ASEAN tit thf trudng
Trung Qudc.
Nhap khiu cua ASEAN td Trung Qudc cilng khdng kdm phan da d^g. Trong ndm 1993, ndm m^t hang xuit khau chu Iyc cua Trung Quoc sang thj trudng ASEAN Id thilt bj di$n, mdy tinh/mdy mdc, diu vd md, bdng vd thuoc Id. Ndm m$t hang nay chilm gan 40% tong kim ngaeh xuit khiu cua Trung Quoc sang ASEAN. Tuy nhien, tdi ndm 1999, cdc m$t hang thilt bj di?n, mdy mdc, mdy vi tinh chiem tdi gdn nua kim ngaeh nh^p khiu cda ASEAN tu Trung Qu6c. Trong vdng mgt thdp ky qua, thuong mat cac san phim che tao, cy thi la vdi cac s ^ phim mdy tinh/mdy mde va dd di?n, tdng mgnh nhat. Cdc sdn phdm nay la cac mdt hdng xuit vd nh^p khau dung ddu ddi vdi cd ASEAN vd Trung Quoc. Cac mdy mdc, thilt bj di?n ma Trung Qudc xuit
khdu sang ASEAN chu ylu la thanh phdm.
Tuy nhien, phin may mdc va thiet bt didn ma Trung Qudc nhap khau td ASEAN chu yeu Id cdc phu timg, linh kidn dien tu.
Chdng han nhu, trong sd may mdc va thiet bj didn Trung Qudc nhap khdu tu Malaysia, hon mgt nda la thilt bi bdn dan, mach tich hgp, vd hon 40% cdn lai la mdy mdc va thidt bj dien. Tmh trang tuong ty cung dien ra ttong hogt dgng nhap khiu ciia Trung Qudc td Thai I^^an, Sii^apore vd Philipppmes.
Dieu dang luu y la ttong mgt vai ndm ttd lai ddy, ty trgng ddu tu lidn quan den thuong mai dd tang nhanh. Phan ldn mua bdn doi vdi mdt hang che tao dien ra gifia hai ben thdng qua cdc cdng ty da qudc gia. Phan ldn linh ki?n di?n tu do ASEAN xuit khdu Id cac sdn phdm td cdc cdng ty hay doanh nghiep cd vdn nudc ngodi.
Xet den ty ttgng cao trong cdn can xuit nhdp khau lien quan din vdn ddu tu tryc tidp nudc ngodi, ttong tuong lai mdi quan h? gifia dau tu true tiep nudc ngodi va can can xuat nhap khiu sd ngdy cang tdng cudng vd c6 dnh hudng Idn tdi thuong mai song phuong gifia ASEAN va Trung Qudc.
Mdt sd mdt hdng nhdp khdu chu yeu eua cdc nude ASEAN tu thi trudng Trung Qudc cd the diem ra la: mdt hang dien vd dien td, mat hang che tao (may mdc/may tinh, ttang thidt bj, xe mdy), khoang san (than, cdc sdn pham dau khi da qua chl biln), mdt hang ngu cdc, Trung Qudc da tap trung vdo cdc mat hang ma trudc nay co lgi thi va chuyin ddn sang xuat khdu eac mgt hdng ddi hoi hdm lugng ky thuat cao vd nhilu vdn nhu hang chl tao va didn tu. Dilu nay da phdn dnh sy phat triln manh md ttong ngdnh cdng nghidp chl tao va dien td vidn thdng cua Trung Qudc ttong qua trinh phdt ttiln kinh te ddt nudc.
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Tgp chi Khoa hgc xa hgi Vift Nam, so 10(95) - 2015 Do dd, ttong ca ciu mat hing thuong mgi giiia ASEAN vi Trung Qudc cd su chuyen bien ldn, chuyin tft vipc budn ban chii yeu doi vdi cac nguyen liSu ndng sin thd sang cie sin pham su dyng nhieu vdn nhu miy mdc/vi tinh va trang thiSt bj dipn.
Sy thay ddi nay tgo dieu kipn eho ci ASEAN vi Trung Qudc theo duoi chien lupc phit trien cdng nghi€p hog hudng ve xuat khiu, trong dd tip tnmg da dang hda cie mit hing xuit kiiiu. Trong nhitag nim gin day, eic sin pham chl tao da ttd thanh mit hang chu dgo trong danh myc cac mat hing xuit khiu cua ea hai ben. So vdi ca ciu mit hing xuit khau cua eic nude ASEAN, CO ciu mat hang cua Trung Quoc cd sy thay ddi ldn vi chuyin ddi nhanh hon sau kW Trung Qudc dgt dupe tdc dp tang tmdng xuat khiu nhanh ttong nhiing nim diu thi ky XXI, vi Trung Qudc di thyc hipn da dgng hda cie mat hing xuit khiu eiia minh nhanh hon cie nudc ASEAN.
Tha tu, thuang mgi djch vu.
Hprp tie ASEAN - Tnmg Quic chu ylu ttong ITnh vyc niy li hpp tic vl du ljch, tai ehinh, vien thdng. BSn cgnh dd, nhftng nginh tu vin, giio dye, quin ly ca sd ha ting, kl hogch dd thi,... cOng kha phit triln d nhung nudc ASEAN. Sy tang ttudng cua Tnmg Qudc se cd lpi cho nginh dich vy ciia ASEAN. Nhu ciu vl giio dye chit lupng cao, y tl, dich vy vi sin phim tieu dung ciia ngudi din Tnmg Qudc ngay cang ldn. Cie nude ASEAN s6 cd khdng gian ldn dl phit hien cie nginh niy sang Tnmg Quic. DJc bipt, CO hpi kilm vipc lim cho nhftng nhi chuyen mdn ttong Iinh vyc djch vy nhu hr van phip lugt, quin ly, kiln ttiic su, kl toan vi chu ngin hing chic chin se ting.
Ddng thdi, ASEAN Ii mpt dilm din thu hiit khi nhilu khich du ljch tft Tnmg Qudc.
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Nim 2002, cd 2,8 ttieu khich Trung Qui di du ljch tgi ASEAN, chilm 8,6% tnmg tdng sd ngudi du Ijch khdng phii la cu dan cda ASEAN. Nim 2005, tdng sl khich dn Hch Trung Qudc din tham cac nii6c ASEAN len tdi 3 trieu ngudi, chilm ty I^
1/3 tren tdng sd khich du ljch Trung Quoc di du ljch nude ngoii. Trong khi do, Trung Qu6c eung trd thinh dilm din quan ttpng ciia cie du khach din tft eic nudc ASEAN.
Nim 2005, sd lupng khich ASEAN A tham Trung Qudc dgt 3 ttieu ngudi, chiem 1/5 ting so du khich nudc ngoii tdi Tnmg Qudc. Nam 2010, ASEAN da thu hiit dugc gin 5,4 tripu khich du ljch din tft Tnmg Qudc vdi miic tang tiTidng 28,9% so voi nim 2009. Ddng thdi, cie nudc thinh vien ASEAN Cling ddng mpt vai ttd quan trpng nhu cac thj ttudng ngudn cho Trung Quoc.
Tgi Hdi nghj Thupng dinh ASEAN - Tnmg Qudc lin thil 13 td chfte thing 10 nam 2010 tgi Hi Npi, Trung Quic dy tinh lupng khich du lieh hai chilu ting ISn 15 triju vio nim 2010.
Tha ndm. diu tu.
Diu tu cua Trung Quic vao ASEAN, m^c du tdng vdn diu tu khdng ldn, nhung ed rit nhilu tiim ning vi ed tic dp gia tang nhanh chdng. Nlu nhu din cudi nim 1991, tdng sd vdn diu tu ciia Trung Qu6e vio eic nudc ASEAN chi khoang 150 tti|u USD thi trong nhiing nSm gin day, cio edng ty eda Trung Qudc bit diu thyc hi|n chiln lupc "hudng ngogi". Din nam 2005, tdng vdn diu tu tft Trung Qudc vio ASEAN li 1,08 ty USD, Trang Quic di diu tu eho gin 1.000 dy in hoat dpng trong linh vyrc tai chinh d 10 quic gia ASEAN. Cie ITnh vyc diu tu da dgng tit cie dy in nhu gia edng lip rap, tdi eic linh vyc quan trong nhu: xay dyng, khich sgn.
Hgp tdc kinh ti ASEAN- Trung Quoc didn, khai thic md vi giao thdng. Cie hmh
thue diu tu dupe phit tt-iin diu tu tt^c tilp nudc ngoai (FDI) tdi nhilu dgng khic nhu:
dau tu cdng ngh? va xiy dyng - kinh doanh - chuyin giao (ETC). Theo thdng ke cua ASEAN, FDI tu Trang Qudc vio ASEAN giam 32,0% tft 3,9 ty USD ttong nim 2009 xudng cdn 2,7 ty USD trong nam 2010. Trong khi dd, FDI cua Trang Quoc vio ASEAN dgt 12,5 ty USD vao nim 2010. Ba nude ASEAN din diu vl nhgn dupe diu tu eiia Trang Qudc la Singapore, Thai Lan vi Viet Nam. Hon 100 cdng ty cd nguin von tft Trung Qudc d Singapore da niem yIt tren thi tradng chftng khoan. d Campuchia, Trang Qudc da trd thinh quoc gia dau tu Idn nhit trong 3 nam liln tilp. Cd thi thiy ring, sy hgp tic gifta ASEAN vi Tnmg Qudc trin nhilu ITnh vyc thuang mgi li ca sd vftng phic nhim cung c6 sy phit triln quan h? song phuong gifta hai bin trong tuong lai.
5. Kit luin
^ diy manh hon nfta quan h? hpp tie kinh tl gifta ASEAN va Trung Qudc, ci hai phia ASEAN vi Trung Qudc can cd nhftng budc di cy thi. Trin gdc d^ chimg, eic ben cin ting cudng hpp tie ttong cie ITnh vuc, g6m tgo thugn lpi cho dau tu vi thuang mgi, diy manh kit noi, md rOng hpp tic vl tii ehinh, xde tien hpp tie trong giim ddi ngheo, cung cd hptp tic vl hing hii vi giao Iim nhan dan. Ve phia eic nude ASEAN can tgn dyng cac diln din hpp tic trayen thong nhu Hpi chp Trung Quic - ASEAN (CAEXPO) dupe to chfte thudng nien dl gidi thipu, quing bi sin pham cd the manh ciia minh, qua dd tang cudng xuat khau sang thi tnrdng Trung Quoc. Vl phia Trung Quic, nudc niy cin ting cudng thiic diy hpp tic hii quan vi kilm nghipm chit
lupmg sin phim, nang cao mftc dp thugn lpi hda trong hpp tie thuong mgi; ting cudng phdi hpp vdi cac nudc khac hoan tat dim phin vl RCEP ttirdc cudi nam tdi, vi keu gpi tang cudng hpp tic ve tai chinh vi tii khda. Ddi vdi Viet Nam ndi rieng, ein tin dyng tdt eic diln dan, eo che va nhiing thda thuin hprp tic, eung nhu nim bit nhu cau thi tradng vi chinh sich ngoai thuang ciia Trung Quoc dl ting cudng thiic diy xuit khiu cac mgt hing ed thi mgnh cua minh vio thi trudng niy.
Tai lipu tham khao
1. Nguyen Thu Hgnh (2010), "Dilu chinh chinh sich thu hut FDI cua Trung Quoc sau khi gia nhgp WTO", Tgp chi Nghien cOu Trung guoc, so 12, tt.30-39.
2. Phiing Mgnh Himg (2012), "Trung Quoc vai vifc hinh thanh cgng ddng kinh li Bdng A".
Lu^n in Tien sT kinh tl, Hpc vifn Khoa hpc xa hpi Viet Nam.
3. Pham Thai Quoc (2010), "Khu rnju djch ty do ASEAN - Trung Quoc: mpt s6 dinh gid budc dau", Tgp chi Nghien cuu Trung Quoc, so 10,tt.57-70.
4. Li Wannan, John Wong, Lye Liang Fook (2008), Asean • Chinatraderelations: IS years of development and prospects, Nxb The gidi.
Ha Npi.
5. Do Tiln Sim (2007), "Hpp tic Trung Qudc - ASEAN vi tic dpng cia no tdi tien trinh xay dyng cpng ding ASEAN", Tgp chi Nghien ciru Tnmg Quoc, sl 6, tt.35 - 40.
6. Luu Ngpc Trjnh (2010), Cgng dong kinh ti Bdng A (EAEC) vd nhimg toan tinh cua cdc ntidc l&n, Nxb Lao dpng. Hi Npi.
7. Http://vietnamese.cri.cn/601/2010/02/
25/Isl37173.httn.
8. ASEAN - CHINA dialogue relations, 10/2011, http://www.asean.org/5874.htm.
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