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KINH TE THE GIOI N A M 2 0 1 1 VA VIEN CANH N A M 2 0 1 2
Kinh te the gioi bat dau nam 2011 voi sir phue hoi trong hy vong, song cang ve cuoi nam, toe do tang tnrong cang tn tre va xuat hien tinh trang "khung hoang" long tin. Theo do, nam 2011 da khep lai voi mot loat thach thuc nhu khung hoang no cong dang xau di 6 chau Au, su phue hoi "eo upt" cua kinh te My, da tang cham lai ciia cae nen kinh te phat trien va moi noi, that nghiep, lam phat cao, bat on chmh tri va thien tai...
T o U Y E N
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1
Nhung trai nghiem nghiet nga
\'ira thoat ra khoi cuoc khiing hoang lai chmh kmh te '2008 - 2009 va l;i.\ l;ii duoc chut "sUc luc" Irong nam '2010. nen kmh li' toan cau nam 2011 liep tuc "chao dao' trong con bao ncr cong ngay cang nghiem trong cua khu vuc d6ng tien chung chau Au (Eurozone). bat nguon t u su chi tieu thieu kiem soat cua Hy Lap.
Khung hoang np dang ngay cang nPng va co nguy ctf lan t u Hy Lap sang nen kinh te Ion thu ba va thii t u chau Au la Italia va Tay
VO'I sir I I'O' ^lup cua C^iy Tien le (^iioc le I 11VI1''|, (I.l (lira ra cac giai
|)liap nham giai cjuyet van de ncr cua khu vUc, nhu nang (^uy IVinh on Tai chmh chau Au len 1.000 ty USD, xoa 50'^ ntf cho liy Lii|) va cap thc'in cho iiinrc nay goi giai cuu thu hai Ir; gia 230 ty USD, cung vol nhimg quyet dinh quan trong khac trong cac cu()c hop cap cao moi day. Song, gioi phan tich cho la chua du va neu Hy Lap va mot s6 nu'o'c kho khan ve tai chinh nhu Italia, Tay Ban Nha... khong manh tay cat giam chi tieu, cac giai phap Iren se
va nhi'mg khoan giai cu'u chi nlur "iiuioi ho be".
He luv l u con li;io iKr coii'r Ban Nha. Mot scV chuyen gia khong co tac dun^
nhan dinh cupc khung hoang hien van chua toi day va no c6 the bung nd vao nam 2012. Tai thoi diem hien nay, su suy thoai Clia Eurozone ducmg nhu la chac chan. Mac du nguoi ta chua the du doan muc dp sau rpng cua suy thoai nay, nhung viec tiep tuc khan hiem tin dung, nhung kho khan np cPng, thieu sue canh t r a n h va su khac khd tai chmh bao trutfc mpt su suy giam nghiem trpng.
Cac nutfc chau Au, dung dau la Diic, deu y thuc rang su sup dd Clia dPng Euro dong nghia vcii su t a n ra cua Eurozone. Thcri gian qua, gidi lanh dao chau Au, cung
chau Au cung lam dieu dung nhii'u nen kmh te khac nhu My, Nhat Ban va cac nUtfc mtfi noi, von cung co nhiing van de npi tai cua mmh. My, vcii toe dp tang truong kinh te rat thap tu nam 2010. dang dPi mat vtfi nhung rui ro suy giam t u cuPc khung hoang Eurozone. cung vdi trd ngai tai chinh Ion, chi tieu suy giam cua cac hp gia dinh, bat hmh dang dang tang len va be lac chmh t n .
Trong khi do. nhiing khiem khuyet trong mo hinh tang Irucmg cua Trung QuPc dang trd nen ro ning. Gia bat dpng san I BDS I sul g-iam dang bat dau mot phan img day chuyen, se c6 tac dong tieu cue den phat trien,
C a c nLTOC
chau Au (3eu y th(>c rSng SIT syp do cija dong Euro dong nghTa voi sir ton ra cua Eurozone.
Anh ST
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CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM Sd 159+160 - Thing 1+2/2012
KINH TE THE G I 6 I r
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UMi-Tlieo gi(fi phdn tich, 2012 se liep luc Id ndm l<ho khdn doi \pcfi nen kinh le
the «•/(//. IroiiiT l)()i
cdnh cac gidi phap dd ctifa ra cho cuoc kiiuiw' hodno' no' congcJUIU.. hi Id cliKa du.UWj
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dau t u va nguon i h u c h i n h [ihu.
Su h u n g t h i n h cua n g a n h xay dung d a n g b a t d a u c h i m g lai, khi xuat k h a u r o n g d a n g t r o t h a n h mpt trtf ngai doi vol t a n g trucmg do nhu cau s u y y e u c u a My va Eurozone. Do p h a i t i m each l a m nguoi thi t r u o n g B D S b a n g viec kiem che gia ca t a n g vpt. cac n h a lanh dao T r u n g QuPc se r a t k h o k h a n de t a i khoT d p n g t a n g truong.
Khong chl n e n g T r u n g Qudc, ve khia c a n h c h i n h t r i , My, c h a u Au va N h a t B a n c u n g d a n g p h a i tri h o a n n h i i n g cai c a c h t a i chinh, n g a n sach va k m h t e m p t each n g h i e m t u c de khoi p h u e s u tang t r u o n g l a u dai v a c a n b a n g . Viec giam don b a y t a i c h i n h c u a khu vuc n h a n u d c va t u n h a n tai cac n e n k i n h t e p h a t t n e n mtfi chi bat d a u , voi b a n g q u y e t t o a n Clia cac hp gia d m h , n g a n h a n g , cac t h e che t a i c h i n h , cac c h i n h quyen t r u n g u o n g v a d i a phucmg van cang t h d n g .
Dong thtfi, n h i i n g m a t c a n b^ng tai k h o a n v a n g lai c h u chdt, giua My v a T r u n g Qudc (va cac nen k i n h t e t h i t r u d n g d a n g ndi khac), v a t r o n g E u r o z o n e , giiia
cac nucrc h a t n h a n va cac nu'o'c ben n a , van Ion. De duy t n l a n g trucing, cac nu'oc chi lieu ipia mu'c c;in h;i gia dong noi te thu'c te va d a n h nghia de cai linen can c;m t h u o n g m;u. t r o n g kin nhirng iiiid'c (li:mg du'c;m t h u c (l;iy n h u c;ui noi (ha. n h a i la lieu d u n g . Sir d i e u c h i n h gia ca t u o n g doi t h o n g (jua cac dong thai tien te d a n g hi ne t r a n h boi vi cac nunc t h a n g d u p h a n doi viec d a n h gia hoi doai m a u n g ho viec a p dat g i a m phat s u \ thoai tai cac nuoc I h a m h u t . Cac cuoc chien lien le d a n g dien ra t r e n mot so m;it:
can thit'p ngo;n hoi, iKn long d i n h lU(ing (in i h e m lien) va k i e m soat cac luong von vao.
Tai An Dp. cuoc k h u n g h o a n g n(r c u a c h a u Au, c u n g voi da p h u e hPi y e u cua k m h te My, da k h i e n Ne'w Delhi h a d u bao t a n g t r u o n g k i n h t e c u a nuPc n a y x u P n g con 7.5'7f t r o n g tai k h o a k e t thiic vao cuoi t h a n g 3/2012, t u m u c d u doan 9^r dupc d u a r a truo'c do. T h e o Bp Tai c h m h An Dp, moi t r u o n g k i n h t e t o a n c a u n g a y m p t s a s u t d a t a c dpng x a u den k i n h t e An Dp. C u n g vcii m p t sd n h a n t d y e u k e m tf t r o n g nuPc n h u l a m p h a t cao, t i n h h i n h t h e gicji ro r a n g d a l a m suy y e u d a t a n g t r u o n g c u a An Dp t r o n g n u a d a u tai k h o a 2011-2012.
T r o n g n a m q u a , c h a u A - T h a i B i n h D u o n g la ntfi bi t h i e n tai t a n p h a n a n g ne n h a t t h e gicri.
Tai N h a t B a n , t r a n d p n g d a t va s o n g t h a n lich s u hPi t h a n g 3/2011 d a k h i e n d a t n u d c " M a t Trtfi mpc' t h i e t hai htfn 300 ty U S D , cviap di s i n h m a n g c u a k h o a n g 2 0 . 0 0 0 ngutfi. DP con c h u a t i n h d e n n h u n g a n h h u o n g k h a c t u t i n h t r a n g t h i e u d i e n s a n x u a t , k h i d p n g d a t a n h
h m m g toi n h a m a y dien h a t n h i m K u k u s h i m a , c u n g n h u n h u n g t a c dpng tic^m an tcri k m h te toan cau. Tai Thai Lan, t r a n lu lut lich sir t r o n g 50 n a m q u a q u e l (pja mien Hac va mien T n m g nuoc nay ke tU t h a n g 7/201 1 u'o'c t m h da lam hem 600 nguoi t h i e t m a n g , p h a huy h a n g ( n e u ngoi n h a va gay t h i e t hai k m h te him 3 ty U S D . K h o a n g 900 n h a m a y o' 7 k h u cong nghic'p phia Bac t h u do B a n g k o k hi n g a p lut n a n g da lam gian doiin chuoi c u n g u n g cua n h i e u cong ty quiic te. Cho d u nucrc lu da r u t d a n va C h i n h p h u T h a i Lan da n h a n h t a y t u n g r a cac g6i kich thich k i n h te tri gia h a n g ty U S D de giup d a t nUtfc khoi p h u e s a u lu lut, song n h u n g t h i e t h a i l a u dai dpi vtfi d a t nutfc c h u a V a n g cP t h e con dien r a t r o n g n h i e u n a m tai.
Ben c a n h do, h a t on chinh t r i , dac biet la cupc each m a n g " M u a X u a n A r a p ' , b a t n g u o n t u T u n i s i a va b u n g p h a t m a n h liet s a n g cac nuPc A r a p l a n can hoi cudi t h a n g 1/2011, a n h h u o n g n g h i e m t r p n g d e n mpt loat n e n k i n h t e t r o n g k h u vu'c t r o n g n a m 2 0 1 1 . Al C a p , S y r i a , T u n i s i a , Libya, B a h r a i n va Y e m e n chiu tac dpng n a n g ne, voi h e t h o n g tien t e chiu a p luc Ion, gia co p h i e u giam m a n h va t h a t n g h i e p gia t a n g , t r o n g k b i n g a n h d u lich t h a t t h u Ion. L a n song noi d a y t r o n g k h u vu'c d a gop p h a n l a m t r a m t r p n g t h e m buc t r a n h k m h te t o a n c a u vdn a m d a m .
T r u d c cac t h a c h thiic dP, k i n h te t h e giiii t r o n g n a m 2 0 1 1 , t u y bi suy yeu, n h u n g k h o n g hi roi vao k h u n g h o a n g n a n g n e n h u n a m 1929, bcii cac c h i n h p h u d a biet ngoi lai vdi n h a u de c u n g
89
Sd 159+160 - Thang' 1+2/2012 CH^Jr-JO KHOAN \: TNAM
r
naraE ™ KINH TE THE Gldl
tim giiii |)hap. Mot loai cac cuoc h o p ban doi jiho \'oi k h u n g h o a n g k i n h te da chen ra o'caj) k h u vue Vii t h e gio'i. T u \ \ a w cac cuoc hop t r e n chi giai (|ii\el moi cach nh.il thoi v:in de cua k h u n g hoaii^;
k m h te con L;OC I'C cua no \ a n chu'a (hro'c giai (|u\('t. Nguyen nh;in c h i n h (aia caioc khiing;
h o a n g no' eong, la cac cac (jiioc gia cliiiu Au \"a M\' d a n g co muc song cao ho'n k h a naiiL; kinh le
"thuc" cua ho. \ i s u suy Ihoai lir n h i e u n a m troiif; san \u;it \;i c u n g c;ip (hch \ u co gi.i I n tlnrc.
CUOI c u n g d u a den n ^ a n sach hoi chl tliuoiig \ u \ e n . C^ua cac cuoc hop giai ciu\et k h u n g h o a n g k m h te vua c|ua. cac nu'o'c lr(>n t h e gun chl t a p I r u n g lam sao cho Hy L a p t r a n h hi vtf ncr va d a m bao cho n e n k i n h te cua n h i i n g nucrc d a n g ben bo' vuc vir n(r n h u Italia, BP Dao N h a , A d e n , T a y Ban N h a k h o n g hi dP vtf t h e o . T u y vay, k h o n g mpt nUtfc n a o de cap tdi v a n de can tai cau t r u c lai n e n k i n h t e .
Cac d i n h che t o a n c a n n h u N g a n h a n g T h e gicri (WB) va I M F . gicii c h u y e n gia, c u n g n h u n h i e u h a n g p h a n tich co uy t m d e u d u bao k i n h te t h e gicri t a n g t r u P n g c h a m lai t r o n g n a m 2 0 1 1 , dPng thoi d u a ra " d a n h gia bi q u a n ' ve t r i e n vong t r o n g n a m 2012.
V i d n cdnh d m d q m t r o n g N d m mdi
T h e o gitfi p h a n tich, 2012 .se t i e p t u c la n a m khP k h a n ddi vcri n e n k i n h te t h e gicii, t r o n g boi c a n h cac giai p h a p d a d u a r a cho cupc k h u n g h o a n g n p cPng c h a u A u la c h u a dii, t r o n g k h i cac
"tien bp" d a t dupc t a i Hpi nghi t h u p n g d i n h E U mcii d a y vdn chi
n a m "Iren gi.'iy'' va can chro'c t h a o luan I hem Tli.al n g h i e p can o' cac neu k m h le jilial liieii va l.iiii
|)h;il leo I liaii^', ()• cac nUirc d a n ^
|)h,il I n e n v.iii chira t h e )',iai (piyel iigay "moi s(rm mot chieu Kich han x.iu iih.il la Liiro/.one do \()'.se a n h liinrng n g h i e m t r o n g den lo.in ho nen k m h le the'' gicVi.
To (hire I hrj) lac va I'hal t n e n K m h le (()K( 'I)) c a n h h.io cuoe k h u n g h o a n g lUV cong o' Kiiro/.one
\ a I m h I l a n ^ I hat chal lai c h i n h a My d a n g la nhu'ng nguy co' lo'n day cac nen k m h te h a n g d a u vao inol cuoc suy t hoiii s a u rong.
()K( '1) (I.l ha du' hao tani4 I n n r n g kinh te n a m 201 1 doi v(ri .'M nUo'c t h a n h vien cua to cliUc nay t u 2,9'/' truo'c do x u o n g 1,9'/- va t u 2,37r xuimg 1,6'/^ cho n a m 2 0 1 2 .
N h a k i n h te t r m i n g cua N g a n h a n g S t a n d a r d C h a r t e r e d , G e r a r d Lyons d u hao k m h te Lien m i n h c h a u Au ( E U ) se nri vao s u y thoai t r o n g n a m 2 0 1 2 . t r o n g khi cac qucic gia c h a u A, di d a u la T r u n g Qucic, se g u i vai Iro t h u c day n e n k i n h t e t o a n cau.
O n g Lyons noi; "Do la mot t h e gioi hai loc dp, nuil phir(mg T a \ m o n g m a n h , s o n g k h o n g ai co t h e tach roi khoi cac s u kien k m h te d a n g dien r a trcMi l o a n cau Kho k h a n cua c h a u Au co t h e keo k m h le t o a n ciiu di x u o n g t r o n g n i u r n g t h a n g d a u n a m 2 0 1 2 , song l a n g trucing tai c h a u A va T r u n g Quoc so keo mpi t b i i trtf lai quy d a o vao cuoi nam"
T r o n g b a n d u b a o thuffng nien moi cong bo, n g a n h a n g S t a n d a r d C h a r t e r e d dii bao k i n h te K h u vuc cac nUtfc s u d u n g dPng tien c h u n g c h a u A u cP t h e s u t g i a m toi 1,5% n a m 2 0 1 2 , t r o n g k h i k i n h t e A n h c u n g rtfi vao s u y t h o a i vcd m u c s u t g i a m
1 ,^''/r, con sc')' bi q u a n htfn nhieu so voi d u cloim c u a Bp trutfngTai c h m h A n h G e o r g e O s b o r n e . Buc I r a n h k m h t e t o a n cau do tao ra sir nluin tliuc d a n g gia t a n g t r o n g c h m h ciic nen kinh te phat I n e n r a n g sue m a n h k i n h te clang (hell c h u y e n s a n g phia Dong, kill ()hu(rng T a y van dang phai v a t Ion viii sUc ep ve tin (lung, s u y g i a m k i n h te va dd vd lon^ t i n t rong ngU(ri tieu d u n g va n h a s a n x u a t .
I ' h a n lim cac c h u y e n gia kinh le Iron t h e gicri deu co c h u n g mpt ket l u a n la n a m 2012 se con la n a m kho k h a n doi vol k h u vuc c h a u Au. O My c u n g se kho khan t r o n g viec khm p h u e tPc dp phat t ric'P k m h te va se k h o n g co thay doi gl hm t u n a y cho toi ky bau c u T o n g t h o n g mcri. TPc dp tang truerng k m h le t h e gioi se tren 3 ' ' n h o vao s u n a n g dpng cua cac qucic gia mcri nPi, n e u n h u nhdng nutfc n a y biet k h o a lap nhiing t h i e u h u t ve t h i t r u o n g tieu thu Iron t h e gioi b a n g thi t r u o n g tieu t h u quPc npi.
Kmli le t h e gicri n a m 2012 se phai doi pho vcri n h i e u thach i h u c t r o n g p h a l t n e n dP la van de can kiet n g u o n nguyen lieu, t h a t n g h i e p , k h u n g h o a n g xa hoi, chu n g h i a bao hp d a n g gia t a n g I r o n g t h u o n g m a i qudc te va dic^u n a y se a n h h u d n g tdi b o a t d p n g x u a t n h a p k h a u ,
I M F moi d a y d a h a du bao t a n g t r u o n g k i n h t e t h e gioi nam 2 0 1 1 va 2 0 1 2 l a n l u p t t u 4,3% va 4,59c dupc d u a r a t r u d c dd, xudng m u c c h u n g la 4 % . IMF cho r&ig d u cP t h e t a n g n h e t r o n g nam 2 0 1 2 , s o n g k i n h t e t h e gioi co the lai roi vao s u y t h o a i n e u kinh te cac n u d c p h u o n g T a y khong di d u n g h u d n g .
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CnmiG KHOAN VIETNAM Sd 159+160- Thing 1+2/2012
KINi^
rff^- 4 W •-J^ZJtUi.tJj.
i ( O ) su KIEN KINH TE THE
GIOI NOI BAT N i 2011
My fan dau tien bj ha miic xep hang tin nhiem uy tin nhat
Hang danh gia tin dung quoc te Standard and Poor's (S&P) ngay 5/8 ian dau tien trong lich su'da tia miic xep hang tin nhiem uy tin nhat the gidi cua My tu "AAA" xuong "AA+", do nen kinh te ldn nhat the gidi nay dang ddi mat vdi nhieu van de nghiem trong nhu no cong "ngat ngu'dng" va tham hut ngan sach khong 16, trong khi thi tru'dng viec lam khong cai thien nhieu va tien trinh ra quyet sach lai khong du manh. Ngoai ra, S&P con ha muc tnen vong cua My xuong "tieu cu'c", lu'c cd quan nay co kha nang tiep tuc ha diem tin nhiem cua My trong tu'dng lai.
3.
B IK
Khung hoang np khu vu'c dong Euro tiep tuc tram trpng them
Cupc khung hoang no cdng cua Eurozone, bat nguon tu" Hy Lap, khong nhu'ng chu'a dMc giai quyet triet de, ma cdn cd nguy CO lan rong sang cac nen kinh te "loi" nhi/ Italia, Phap. Nhieu giai phap da di/dc du'a ra nhu'ng khong dem lai ket qua can thiet. Viec cai each manh me EU, su'a doi Hiep u'dc Lisbon da du'dc tinh den nhutig khong gianh du'dc sUdong thuan. Hoi nghi thu'dng dinh EU trong hai ngay 8 va 9 thang 12/2011 thoa thuan se dam phan, ky ket hiep dinh lien chinh phu de lap ra Lien minh ngan sach va thue CO sptham gia cua 26 ni/dc, trP Anh. Day di/dc coi la mpt bi/dc di lich sPva "EU 2" khong cd Anh se ra ddi trong Idng EU nham giai quyet mot each can ban can benh nd cong.
Gia vang bien dong manh vdi cac ky luc mdi Bien dgng manh, vot len dinh cao va lui xudng rat nhanh dd la tdm tat ngan gc)n v'e dien bien cua thi tru'dng vang the gidi trong nam 2011. Von chi sat tren ngu'dng 1.400 USD/ounce luc khdi dau nam 2011, vang bat dau lao vun vut tii giiia nam va dat mdc cao lich sii 1.923 USD/ounce trong phien 6/9, roi nhanh chdng rut khdi dinh cao va chi cdn giao dich d gan 1.600 USD/ounce tru'dc them nam mdi 2012. Tuy nhien, gidi chuyen gia nhan dinh: vang cd the vot len 2,000 USD/ounce do nhu'ng khd khan kinh te hien nay.
: : ^
(tj^liieo tning 90)
Trong bao cao dinh ky cdng bd cudi nam 2011, WB du doan kinh te khu vuc Ddng A se chi tang trudng 7,8% nam 2012, giam dang ke so vdi mure tang 9,7% cua nam 2010, chu yeu do nhu cau tieu thu hang hda tit cac thi tnidng xuat khau trong yeu Clia Dong A nhu My va chau Au tiep tuc sut giam. Tuy nhien, nhd ngudn du trii ngoai te ldn va thang du tai khoan vang lai cao, hau het cac qudc gia trong khu vuc Dong A cd the vupft qua cac
siic ep nay. Theo WB, khu vuc Ddng A, bao gdm Tnmg Qudc,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thai Lan, Viet Nam
va Campuchia, cd tdng du trii ngoai te (khdng ke vang) len tdi 4.900 ty USD tinh tdi thang 9/2011, trong dd rieng Trung Qudc da sd hthi 3.200 ty USD.
WB cho rang cac nen kinh te phu thupc vao xuat khau tai Ddng A da bi anh hudng tii cupc khiing hoang tai phutfng Tay, dac biet la linh vuc dien tii khi nhu cau tieu thu suy yeu. WB
nhan dinh, trong bdi canh hai true kinh te ldn tren the gidi la My va chau Au phai vat ldn vdi khiing hoang np cdng, Trung Qudc da ndi len la thi trudng xuat khau chii chdt va gid vai trd la dpng luc cua kinh te toan cau. Du kien, kinh te Trung Qudc vin cd the tang trudng 8,4% nam 2012, bat chap cac bien phap kiem che lam phat Clia Bdc Kinh, trong do cd tang lai suat va tang ty le du trd bat bupc, nham dn dinh kinh te vi md. ®
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