x/ LOI ICH Din CHicN Liroc cun cnc cirdNG ouoc 6
RICN D O N GLirffng Van Ke*
Bdi nghien cim ndy thudc di tdi ma so 14.3-2012.10 dugc tdi trg bdi quy Nafosted. -cM Tdm tit: Khi xem xet tinh chdt dia chinh tri cua mgt khu vuc dia ly, ngudi ta khdng chi xem xet phien dien, hoac tir khia cgnh vi tri dia ly, hoac tir khia cgnh dia hinh (cdu tgo djd chdt), hay chi xem xet ve Hem ndng tdi nguyen, md cdn phdi xem xet tdt cd cdc mat tren.
Khdng nhirng the, cdn dgt viing dia ly dy trong todn bd mgng ludi ciia cdc quan hi lien ketvd xung dot qudc te khdng chi trong ndi bd khu vuc, md cdn md rdng tdm nhin ra cdc vdng cung ldn han, da tdng han, tham chi xem xet nd a tdm chien lugc todn cdu.
Bdi viet ndy xem xet vdn di tranh chdp Bien Ddng dudi gdc nhin so sanh ve lgi ich dia chien lugc cua cdc cudng qudc cd lien quan din Bien Ddng, bao gdm 6 thue thi Id Trung Qudc, My, Nga, Nhdt Bdn, An Do vd Lien minh Chdu Au (EU). Dieu ddng chd y nhdt la ndi lo sg ve chiin lugc ddi hgn ddc chiem Bien Ddng cua Trung Qudc. Tir do chung ta cd thi nhgn thicc dung ddn bdn chdt cua cdc tuyen bd vd hanh vi ung xir cua cdc cudng quoc xung quanh tranh chdp chu quyen tren Biin Ddng vd Viet Nam cd su lua chon cdc bien phdp phu hgp de gidi quyet tranh chdp vdi cdc ben lien quan, nhdt Id vdi Trung Qudc.
Tu- khda: dia chinh trj, dia chiin lugc, dia kinh ti, Biin Ddng, Viet Nam, ASEAN, Trung Qudc
1. Lgi ich dia chien luac cua Trung di xudng. Mpt sd nha nghidn cuu da so sanh Quoc tai Bien Ddng y nghia dia chidn lugc ciia Bidn Ddng ddi Khi xem xet lgi ich dia chidn lugc cila ™' '^"'"e Qudc khdng khac gi vung bidn Tmng Qudc va hanh xir cua hp d Bidn Ddng ^^* Caribbean (bao gdm Vinh Mexico) ddi cin dat yong tdng thd chidn lugc "trdi day ^°^ ^ ^ *^"^' * ^ ^^ ^^X- ^ i ring My chi c6 hda binh" hay "phat tridn hda binh" cua ^^^ ^^^^ ^'^^ •^^"g chd toan bd bien Tmng Qudc. Bidn Ddng dang thyc sy trd ^^^^^ thi mdi thdng tri dugc Tay Ban ciu thanh vu dai cho sy chuydn dpng va tranh ""^ ^^^ P^^> *^^^ ^^ "^^^^^ ^^'^ ^ ^o"g ^ ^ ^^"
chip quydn lyc toan ciu giira cac dai cudng, ^^ ^^"^ ^^° Panama xuyen hai dai duong.
trong do hai nhan vat chu chdt la mpt Tmng '^^^^ ^ ^^ the, Tmng Qudc ndu thdng tri Qudc dang ldn va mpt sieu cudng My dang ^^^'^ ^^^" ^°"S thi mdi cd ca hdi trd thanh ba chu Tay Thai Binh Duong va vuan ra An
"TSKH, Dai ligc QuSc gia Hd N^i ^ ^ Duong.
£jgi itJt ttia fJtigjn. liAfe.., 57
Khi ndi den lgi ich dia chidn lugc cua Tmng Qudc d Bien Ddng, ngudi ta thay ndi bat 4 khia canh dac bidt quan trpng:
khia canh lanh thd - tai nguydn, giao thdng, an ninh - qudc phdng, khia canh van hda - lich sir.
(i) Tren khia canh lanh tho tdi nguyen, muc dich ciia Trung Qudc khdng ed gj de nghi ngd. Hp khdng nhiing mudn chidm tit ca cac dao va bai da tren hai quan ddo Hoang Sa va Trudng Sa, ma tham chi cd da tam chidm ludn ca cac khu vyc dac quyen kinh td (EEZ) ciia cac nudc theo Cdng udc vd Ludt Bidn qudc td, trong khi cac khu vyc nay each bd bien gan nhat cua Tmng Qudc (ddo Hdi Nam) tdi tren 1.200 km. Thd ma mdt s6 hpc gia nudc ngoai - ching ban cyu Ngogi tmdng My H. Kissinger, ngudi theo chu nghTa hien thyc trong ndn ngoai giao hi?n dai va cd cdng ldn trong tbiet lap quan h? My-Tmng thap nien 1970 - vin nhan djnh ring Trung Qudc khdng cd ddng co dd qudc bdnh tmdng lanh thd, vi ban do lanh thd Trung Qudc tir hai nghin nam nay khdng thay ddi (!). Thyc td each hdnh xu ciia Trung Qudc ddi vdi cdc nudc lang gidng va khu vyc Bidn Ddng tir thap nidn 1970 den nay cho ngudi ta mdt in tugng ngugc lai. Hon niJa, cac budc tidn nhu vii bao trong qua irinh hipn dai boa va tham vpng sieu cudng kinh te va quan sy ciia Trung Qudc vugt qua trinh dO cdng nghe va hidu qua san xuat ciia n^n kinh td cua mgt nudc dang phat tridn mdi dang d giai doan diu ciia hipn dai hda,
khidn cho nhu cau nguydn lieu trd ndn biic thiet va ngay cang gia tang, nhat la nhu cau nang lugng diu khi. Trong khi dd cac nghien cuu khao sat va thyc tien khai thae tai nguyen d Bien Ddng ddu cho thay tiem nang khdng Id eiia Bien Ddng. Bidn Ddng dugc coi la mdt trong 5 bdn triing chua dau khi ldn nhat the gidi. Trong pham vi Bidn Ddng, cac khu vyc them luc dia cd tidm ndng dau khi cao la cac bdn triing Bruney Saba, Sarawak, Malay, Pattani Thai, Nam Cdn Son, Mekdng, sdng Hdng, cua sdng Chau Giang. Bdn dudi vung bidn va them luc dia Viet Nam tdn tai nhidu be tram tich ddu khi, trong do 2 be tram tich Cuu Long vd Nam Cdn Son dugc danh gid cd tridn vpng dau khi ldn nhit, dieu kidn khai thae tuong ddi thuan lgi. Tdng trii lugng du bao dja chat ve dau khi cua toan them luc dia Viet Nam dat xap xi 10 ti tan dau quy ddi, trii lugng khai thae khoang 2 ti tan va trii lugng dy bao ciia khi khoang 1.000 ti m^ (theo danh gia cua Bp Nang lugng My, lugng du trii dau dugc kidm chiing d Bien Ddng Id 7 ti thiing vdi kha nang san xuat 2,5 tridu thung/ngdy).
Ngoai ra cdn cd cac khu vyc cd tiem nang dau kbi chua khai thae la khu vyc them luc dia ngoai cira vinh Bac Bd va bd bidn mien Tmng Viet Nam.'
Hon niia, bdi canh qudc te tmdc hdt Id bdi canh dia ly va tuong quan siic manh d Ddng Nam A vd Bien Ddng qua that da kich
' http://biendong.net/gioilhieubicndong/155-bien- done-nguon-song-vo-lan.html
58 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (165).20U
thich tham vpng dia ly ciia sidu cudng dan sd nay. Ndi theo ly thuydt quan he qudc te hien dai, cdc nhan td khach quan va chu quan da khidn Trung Qudc theo dudi mpt thii lgi ich qudc gia tuyet ddi bdng mdt siic manh ciing tuyet ddi.
(ii) Tren khia canh giao thitang quoc ti: Khi Tmng Qudc trd thdnh cudng qudc thuong mai sd mdt thd gidi ciing cd nghTa la sy dn dinh va phdn vinh ve kinh td va xa hdi cua Trung Qudc se tiiy thudc vao nhiing ddng chay thucmg mai deu dan nham dap ung day dii va kip thdi nhu cau xuat nhap khau hang hda, tmdc bet la nhap khau tai nguyen va xuat khau hang hda thanh pham tir toan bp cac khu vyc khac nhau cua thi tmdng the gidi. Vi the, trong khi giao thuong dudng bd cua Trung Qudc vdi cae qudc gia va chau luc khac gap nhidu cdn trd bdi dia hinh va an ninh, dac bidt Id cac tuyen giao . thdng Tay Nam de tidp can An Dp Ducmg thdng qua cac qudc gia Myanmar, Pakistan, An Dp thi cac tuyen hang hdi qudc td d bd Tay Thai Binh Duong chii ydu thdng qua Bien Ddng vdi cdc dia didm nhu eo bien Malacca d Nam Bidn Ddng va khu vyc giua hai quan dao Tmdng Sa va Hoang Sa theo hudng bac nam nham ket ndi Tmng Qudc vdi the gidi la nhiem vy cdt tir. Hidn nay Trung Qudc cd 29/39 tuyen dudng hang hai va khoang 60% lugng hdng hda xuit nhap khau, 70% lugng dau md nhap khiu dugc van chuydn bang dudng bien qua Bien Ddng.
Han niia, vdi muu dd 'chdt chan mat tidn'
hudng ra Bidn Ddng cua Viet Nam, Truug Qudc se bit cac nudc, trudc het Id Vidt Nam, le thupc vao quyen dieu phoi cua hp, ngay cd trong tmdng hgp nhieu dao d quan dao Trudng Sa vdn thupc chu quydn ciia Viet Nam. Didu dd chang khac gi tinh trang bi dat ciia lanh thd Palestine dudi sy chia^^cat va kidm soat cua Israel d Trung Ddng! Mat khac, vide doat dugc chii quydn trdn Bidn Ddng theo dudng ludi bd ciing giiip Trung Qudc khdng che khdng phdn trdn Bidn Ddng.
Theo do cdc dudng bay qudc td cua cac hang hang khdng trdn the gidi ddu phdi xin phep, chiu sy didu phdi va nop thud cho Trung Qudc. Dieu dd cang dac bidt cd y nghTa trong ky nguyen bung nd giao thdng hang khdng vd du lich d Ddng A va Ddng Nam A thd ky XXI.
can luu y rang, mdt khi Trung Qudc da dpc chidm dugc Bidn Ddng, thi bit chip viec nudc nay tuydn bd cam kdt duy tri ty do luu thdng tren Bidn Dong nhim dat dugc sir ddng thuan qudc te ddi vdi muc dich ciia hp, Tmng Qudc van cd the ra lenh cim thdng thuang tren vung Bidn Ddng bit ky liic nao, khi tinh hudng ddi hdi bao ve lgi ich cdt loi cua Trung Qudc va ngan ch£in Igi ich ciia nudc khac.^
^ Le H6ng Nh^t (Dai hge Qu6c gia TP.HCM): Ban chdt ciia xung dgt chu quyin tqt Biin Dong, ngn^n:
Sai Gon Tiep thi hnp://vtc.vn/311-29255I/(J^
te/ban-chat-cua-xung-dot-chu-quyen-tai-bien- dong.htin, 06/07/2011 16:19.
:^
£j^ tdt iBa eluM. itAfe... 59
(Hi) Bpng ca chien lirac qudc phong - an ninh: Lgi ich quan su va an ninh bao gid ciing gan vdi lgi ich kinh td, la cdng cu dd bdo ve lgi ich kinh te. Do do ban chit cua muu do dgc chiem Bien Ddng cua Trung Qudc, nhat la hai quan dao Hoang Sa va Tmdng Sa, la nham hai muc dich cdt loi: (a) Ngan chan ty do di lai tren bidn cua cac chidn ham nudc ngoai, nhat la cua cdc ddi thu, ngoai gidi ban 12 hai ly tir dudng co sd, nhd thd Tmng Qudc ed the day mdi de dpa an ninh tir bien ra xa bd bien Trung Qudc.
Cac tau chidn va tau do tham ciia My va cac nudc khde khdng cd didu kien tiep can bd bidn Trung Qudc dugc niia. Vu vide Trung Quoc cit cap tau do tham My Impercable nam 2008 trong thdm luc dia Trung Qudc thi hien ro ret muc dich nay; (b) Md ldi di ra dai duong xanh (luc hai) cho hai quan Trung Qudc trong didu kidn bidn Hoa Ddng dudi sy kidm sodt cua My va ddng minh Nhat Ban, Dai Loan da ngan chan dudng vuan ra Thai Binh Duong va An Dp Duang cua hg. Chi CO thdng qua Bidn Ddng ra dugc tdi dai duong xanh nhu thd thi Tmng Qudc mdi cd thd bing chidn ham ngim hay ndi dua mdi de dpa cua hp tdi gan nudc My, An Dp va cdc ddi thu tidm tang khde. Didu dd cang dac biet buc thidt khi trinh do cdng nghe ten liia d^ dao, tau ngim hat nhan va cdng nghe thdng tin lidn lac cho tdu ngim cua hp dang cdn nhieu han chd. Vdi muu dd rd rang va biic thiet nhu thd, cd thd hidu dugc t^i sao Tnmg Quoc quyet chidm Hodng Sa, Tnidng
Sa, thidt lap mdt sd can cii quan sy va vidn thdng tren cac dao cua Hoang Sa va Tnidng Sa ciing nhu mua sam va ddng mdi cac tau san bay de bd tri tren Bidn Ddng. Tit ca nham 'ndi dai' tdm vuon ciia phao ham vdi tam ban hidu qua nham vao ddi thu.
(iv) Bong ca vdn hda - lich sA: Ngoai cac dpng CO then chdt ndu tren, cd mdt nguyen nhdn lich sir va van boa sau xa thiic day Trung Qudc budng ra bien Hoa Ddng vd Hoa Nam (Bidn Ddng) de 'Idy lai the dien' mdt dan tdc vT dai. Nhu da biet, can tinh cua van hda Trung Hoa tmyen kidp Id van hda gia trudng cua Nho giao. Theo dd md hinh cau tnic gia tdc/gia dinh hay chd dp tdng phap theo each gpi cua gidi nghidn cuu dugc loai suy thanh md hinh trat ty the gidi, trong dd cac qudc gia dugc phan tdn ti (thu bac cao thap) khac nhau tiiy vao sire manh thyc td. Diing chdt trdn dinh quydn uy la de chd bd chu va duong nhien dd chi cd the Id Tmng Qudc. Md hinh hinh Kim tu thap nay trai ban vdi cau tnic 'mang ludi' theo chidu ngang cua ly thuyet quan he qudc te hidn dai ma phuong Tay de xudng va qudng dai cac qudc gia hidn dai ddu ddng thuan. Mdt qudc gia da timg dimg trdn tdt dinh vinh quang nhu the trong ca thien nien ky bdng dung dimg budc kd tir the ky XVI dudi tridu Minh chi bdi niem tin rang dudi khap gdm trdi nay khdng dau van minh bang Hoa Ha. Sudt ba thd ky ngap chim trong cdn benh 'bao hda d dinh cao' da khidn dd chd Tmng Hoa roi vao vdng tri trp, suy ydu va bj phuong Tay 'xd thit' ke
60 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 {U5).2014 tir giiia thd ky XIX. Ndi si nhuc hang the ky
nay ("century of humiliation") tao mdt dau an vd cimg sau sac trong tu duy cua gidi tinh hoa Tnmg Qudc den tan bdm nay. Vao the ky 19, khi nha Thanh suy ydu, Tmng Qudc da dd tudt khdi tay chu quydn lanh thd d nhieu vimg vd thu hep pham vi anh hudng d hau het cac khu vyc lan bang vdn la cac vung anh hudng 'tmyen thdng' cua minh:
mat cac chu hau phia Tay Nam cho Nepal;
Myanmar cho Anh; mat Ddng Duong d Ddng Nam vao tay thyc dan Phap; mat Dai Loan, Han Qudc va Sakhalin cho de qudc Nhat Ban; mat Mdng Cd, Amuria va Ussuria vao tay de che Nga. Dau the ky 20, Nhat Ban cdn danh chidm ban dao San Ddng va Man Chau vdn la que huang ciia thien tridu nha Thanh. Khdng nhiing the, Tmng Qudc cdn hi ep budc ky cac thda thuan nhugng dia cho cac nudc phuang Tay quyen kiem soat nhieu thanh phd ven bien quan trpng nhat cua nudc nay - gpi la Hiep udc Hai cang Md (Treaty Ports). Bdi ly do lich sii bat thudng do, gidi tinh hoa Tmng Qudc ngay nay trong khdng hiem dip cd Idng ghep ndi si nhuc nay cua hp vdi qua khii thupc dia cua hau het cac nudc Ddng va Ddng Nam A, gpi dd la 'ndi si nhuc Ddng A' (trir Nhat Ban), nhu trong phat bidu cua hpc gia Trung Qudc Su Hao tai Hdi nghi khoa hpc qudc te vd Bien Ddng Ian thii 3 tai Ha Ndi thang 11/2011.'
Vi Nhat Ban khong bi tro thanh thugic dia hay ban thupc dja ciia phuong Tay, ma lai con tro thanh mpt d^ quoc va timg di xam lugc va no dich nhi^u dan tpc
Trung Qudc da vugt qua con ac mdng do va da dat den vi tri cao nhat cua m$t cudng qudc dai luc va dn dinh lanh thd chua timg thay ke tir trieu dai nha Minh the ky thii XVI. Cac dai hpi dang cua Tmng Qudc gin day (tir Dai hgi XV nam 2003) deu nhin manh ca hdi 'ngan nam cd mpt' cho sy trdi day trd thanh sieu cudng the gidi ciia Trung Qudc.'' Hp se khdng bao gid cd y dinh dd cho nudc ngoai "de dau cudi cd" lan niia nhu trong hai the ky trudc.
2. Lpi ich dia chien lugc cua My Ngoai Tmng Qudc va cac nudc khac d Ddng Nam A ra, y nghTa dia chien lugc cua Bien Ddng ddi vdi cac cudng qudc Hen quan nhu Nhat, My, Nga, Australia, An Dp ciing qua ro rang nhu nhidu nghien cuu da chi ra.
Tuy nhien mdi quan tam ciia cac nudc thupc 'vdng ngoai' nay chii ydu d khia canh giao thdng hang hai va an ninh hon la van de chii quyen lanh thd, nhu gidi chiic My da nhieu lan mydn bd thang than va ro rang.
Lgi ich dia chien lugc ciia My d Bidn Ddng bao gdm nhiing gi? CJ day trudc het phai dat Bidn Dong trong tdng thd didu chinh
khac 6 chau A, nen Nhat Ban dugc cac hpc gia Trung Quoc xem la ke tong pham, ciing hpi ciing thuyen vdi chu nghTa thirc dan phuang Tay. Bdi 12 dd Nhat Bin ngay nay khong co tu each phe phan Trung Qu6c trong hanh xii 6 Bi6n Dong.
" Bai hpi 16 (2003) Trung Qu6c nhan djnh bdi canh qu6c t^ hien nay la thoi c o ng^n nSm c6 mpt cho phgc hung Trung Hoa, liy lai 5 thg ky bj ddnh mat. T^ii D?' hoi 16 Trung Quoc de ra tu tuong tiSn cimg th6i 6^\
tr6i day hoa binh. Tham khao: Nguyen Trung: Chd dung cua Viet Nam Irong thi giai da cftc. Tc. Th&i dai moi, s6 11,7/2007.
£j^i ijth. itia ehien. ItM^.. 61
chidn lugc toan cau ciia My. Trong didu chinh chien lugc toan ciu cua My, chau Au dugc My xem la ddng minh then chdt va ed dii dp tin cay sau khi khdi NATO da trai qua 63 nam phat tridn va ngay cang hung manh, ngay cang cd su nhat tri cao giua hai bd Dai Tay Duong. Long tin cua My ddi vdi cac ddng minh chau Au trong NATO dua tren thii thach thyc tien va trdn niem tin vd he gia tri chung ma ca hai ben theo dudi. Nd ciing dua tren kha nang ty ve dang tin cay cita chau Au tmdc cac mdi de dpa cd the den tir ben ngodi. Han niia, sy sup do mpt di khdng trd lai ciia khdi quan sy Warsawa do Lien Xd cdm dau, su suy yeu tuong ddi va cd lap ciia nudc Nga den nay khidn cho My khdng cin phai tap trung sue manh d chdu Au niia.
Ddng thdi cue dien hai cupc chidn tai Iraq va Afganistan dang dan di den nhiing ket cue ma My mong dgi: giam can thiep, giam qudn, giam chi phi va nit lui trong danh dy, trao trach nhiem an ninh eho ddng minh bdn dia. Trong khi dd su vuon len ciia Tmng Qudc va tham vpng sieu cudng the gidi ciia hp ciing vdi siic anh hudng manh me cua Tmng Qudc vd ca kinh te va quan su ddi vdi khu vyc chau A da va dang thach thirc vi Mi sidu cudng duy nhit cua My. Ve mat ddi ndi, chinh phu My dung tmdc siic ep cat giam chi tidu quan sy va tap tmng eho khdi phuc kinh te sau khimg hoang. Tit ca cac nguyen nhdn bdn ngodi va bdn trong ndi b-dn da khi^n cho chinh phu cua Tdng thdng My Obama di ddn quydt dinh dieu chinh chidn
lugc toan cau, tap tnmg sue manh ma chu yeu la hai quan vao trpng didm Chau A-Tbdi Binh Duang.
Diem khac biet can ban ve lpi ich chien lugc cua My d Bidn Ddng so vdi Trung Qudc la d chd: My khdng cd tham vpng lanh thd va tai nguyen d Bien Ddng, ma chi gidi ban d quyen tu do va duy tri an ninh bang hai cho ca tau budn va tau chien ciia My va cdng ddng qudc td. Lgi ich chidn lugc toan cau cua My, ndi ngan gpn la duy tri trat ty quyen lyc tren bien do My thdng tri, tmdc hdt la d Thai Binh Duong vd An Dp Duong.
Chinh dac diem then chdt ndy qui dinh tinh chat va muc dp san sang cua quan he ddng minh giiia My vdi cac nudc khac. Nd dd tao ra su ddng thuan, nhat la tir cac nudc nhd dang diing tmdc mdi de dpa tu Trung Qudc.
cac ham dpi ciia My van dugc xem la hiing manh nhat the gidi, nhung nay da trd ndn qua nhd be (tir gdn 600 tau chien nay chi cdn 285 tau) va td ra dudi siic trong vide bao dam an ninh cac viing bien chung va cac hai trinh quan trpng tren eac dai duong. Bien Ddng khdng nhiing ty than la mdt vimg bien ma cac nudc ed lgi ich ehien lugc giao nhau, ma xet vd vi tri chien lugc hai qudn nd con la hanh lang ndi ket giira hai dai duong, cho phep cac lyc lugng My di chuyen nhanh chdng giiia hai dai duong nay. Nd ciing la diem ndi kdt quan trpng trong tam giac Guam - Bien Ddng - Australia ciing nhu ddi vdi chuoi dao thii nhat d Tdy Thai Binh
62 NGHIEN CCU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (165).2014
Duong bao vay Trung Qudc (va Nga) keo dai tir Ddng Bic A ddn Australia. Khdng nhiing thd, xung quanh long chao Bien Ddng cdn cd mdt sd vi tri cang bien mang tam chidn lugc dd cac tau hdi quan khdng Id cua My cd thd ddn tni, bao duang va thyc hien cac chidn thuat cdng-thu hdt siic lgi hai, ching ban vinh Cam Ranh va Da Nang d midn Trung Viet Nam. Didu dd cang cd y nghTa khi md nudc My dang ddi mat vdi nhiing khd khan vd tai chinh do ngan sach qudc phdng bi cat giam (gan 500 ti USD trong 10 nam tdi) trong khi chi phi cho cdng vide duy tri, va bao dudng chi phi ddng tau tang cao. My cang khdng the tinh den vide xay dyng can cii hai quan mdi d khu vyc, ma chii ydu phdi dya vao co sd ha tang ciia cac ddng minh. Vi thd My budc phai keu gpi sy hd trg cua cac ddi tac bdn dia. Dd la cac ly do dd Bien Ddng trd thanh mpt lieu diem hgp tdc an ninh bien qudc te ciia My, tmdc bet la cac ddng minh d Bien Ddng. Vi the, ngay tir ndm 2007, My da dua ra Chiin lugc hgp tdc sue mgnh biin the ky 21 (gpi tat la CS-21), giao su menh bao dam an ninh hang hai toan cau vdi tu each nhiem vy cdt loi cho hai quan, linh thiiy danh bp va lyc lugng bao ve bd bidn My. Trong chien lugc do, khu vyc Tay Thai Binh Duang va An Dp Duong vdi viing Vinh d Trung Ddng la cdc san khau chinh ciia sue manh bien ciia My, bao gom ca cdc chiic nang canh sat va quan sy. Didu dac biet la My cam ket se "ciing vdi cdc qudc
gia cd chung chi hudng bdo ve vd duy tri A|
thdng kit ndi todn cdu md nhd do chung ta thinh vugng"^
Sy gap go vi lgi ich chien lugc da diy My va cac nudc d Bidn Ddng den gan nhau, vugt qua mpi chudng ngai to ldn ma trong hodn canh biidi thudng khd cd the lam dupc.
Nhu mpi ngudi van nhd, sau khi ket thiic Chidn tranh Viet Nam, cac ddng minh cua My da dd nghi My nit het cac can cii quan sy (hai quan va khdng quan) khdi lanh thd ciia hp nhu: PhiUipine thu hdi can cii Subic, Thai Lan thu hdi can cii khdng quan U-Tapao.
Thd ma ddn nam 2012 nay ca hai nudc hen ddu da cam kdt, tham chi thiic giuc My trd lai. Lai ciing khdng phai ngdu nhidn ma Bp tmdng Qudc phdng My L. Panetta da dugc Viet Nam mdi ddn tham vinh Cam Ranh dau thang 6/2012, nai da timg la td hgp can cii quan su khdng Id mang tinh chidn lugc trong sudt cugc chidn tai Viet Nam vd la noi ma Viet Nam timg tuyen bd khdng cho nuoc ngoai nao dugc thud lam can cii quan sy. Tai ddy dng da tuyen bd ve tam quan trpng ehien lugc cua vinh nay ddi vdi chidn luge chuyen dich dai bg phan hai quan ve Thai Binh Duong cila My. Trong khi dd, chua mdt lan nao tau chien Tmng Qudc va mdt sd nudc khac dugc phep ghe lai cang nay. Tham chi ddi voi Cam Ranh, sy vide chi mpt vai ngudi Tmng Qudc boat ddng tren danh nghTa hanh
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-
tri/tuanvietnam/71406/chinh-sach-bien-cua-mv.htnd
£al ieh HAUL ehuh. Uof^.. 63
nghd nudi ca be d cua vinh, da trd thanh mpt con sdt phdn ung ciia cdng luan Viet Nam hdi thang 6/2012. Dong thdi, cac cudc tap tran hai quan d cac quy md khac nhau giua My va cac ddng minh d Ddng Nam A didn ra ddn dap, nhdt la tir nam 2010 trd lai day, kd ca vdi Viet Nam du dudi danh nghia nay hay khac. Chi cd the hidu diing each hdnh xii trdn khi dya trdn nhan thue ve sy thdng nhat cac lgi ich chidn lugc giiia My vd cac nudc d Bien Ddng trong tinh hudng xuat hidn mdi de dpa ngdy cang ldn, vugt trdn kha nang ty ve cua cac nudc d khu vyc nay.
3. Lgi ich dia chien lugc cua Nhat Ban Cd ciing lgi ich chidn lugc vdi My la Nhat Bdn trong vin de duy tri ty do giao thuong tren Bidn Ddng. Ve mat nao dd, Bidn Ddng ddi vdi Nhat Ban cdn quan trgng hon nhidu, vi ndn kinh td dua tren xuat nhap khau cua Nhat phai dya vao hang hai ndi kdt Thai Binh Duong va An Do Duong. Theo tinh toan ma hpc gia Nhat Ban Shigeo Hiramatsu dua ra, ndu chi tinh rieng Nhat Ban da cd khodng I. I ti tin hang hoa di lai hang nam tdi Nhat qua Bidn Ddng, trong dd 900 trieu tin nhap vao Nhat va khoang 200 trieu tan xuit tir Nhat. Tire la cd khoang 3 trieu tan hing va 15 con tiu trpng tai 200 ngan tan hang ngay di qua viing bidn nay. Chi ndi tdi diu thd khdng thdi, Nhat phai nhap khdu 238,37 tri?u tin bang nam, tuong ducmg vdi 650 ngdn tin hang ngay, tire la 3,3 con tiu
trpng tai 200 ngan tan. Trong do 90% phai van chuyen qua eo Malacca va eo Bashi.*
Viing Bien Ddng cd tam quan trpng thiet than vdi ca muc tieu giao thdng va chidn lugc quan su. Vi the, chi can de doa cac dudng giao thdng bien Id Trung Qudc da giang mdt ddn chi tu ddi vdi Nhat Ban, Dai Loan va Han Qudc ma khdng can cd mpt hanh ddng quan sy true tiep nao. Tren Bien Hoa Ddng, dpc theo quan dao Senkaku, thupc chu quydn Nhat nhimg Tmng Qudc cung tranh chu quydn, la mdt them luc dia cd trir lugng dau ldn. Ndu Trung Qudc chidm ddng toan bd tuyen hanh lang ndi Bidn Ddng va Bidn Hoa Ddng thi hp cd the tao dnh hudng ldn ddi vdi cac nudc xung quanh, ngan chan khdng gian boat ddng cua cac ham dpi Nhat Ban - cudng qudc hai quan sd 2 thd gidi va sd I chau A; va cd the tien cdng xa ban vao cac bidn thupc An Dp Duong va Thai Binh Ducmg trong tuong lai.''
Do tim quan trpng chien luge cua Bidn Ddng ddi vdi eac nudc Ddng A vd Ddng Nam A, va de ngan ngira kha nang xung dot Bien Ddng md Tmng Qudc chit ddng gay ra, hpc gia Shigeo Hiramatsu kdu gpi cdc qudc
* Xem: Shigeo Hiramatsu: China's Advances in the South China Sea: Strategies and Objectives", Asia Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No, 1, May 2001, U 40-50.
(Trung Quoc lien cong Iren Bien Nam Trung Hoa (Bien Dong): Chien IUQC va muc lieu); Nguoi djch:
Vu Quang Viet, tren: Viet-Studies - Tgp chi Thtri dgi moi, s6 4, thing 3/2005.
' Shigeo Hiramatsu. tai lif u da dan.
64 NGHIEN CUTU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (165).2014
gia d Ddng A can cung cd thanh nhdm ddng minh than thiet vdi sy hien dien cua lyc lugng quan su My trong vimg; Can cd sy hgp tdc quan su va chinh tri chat che giiia My, Nhat, Nam Tridu Tidn, Dai Loan va cac nudc Ddng Nam A.^ Ngoai ra, Nhat Ban cdn hgp tac vdi cac nudc Ddng Nam A khac thdng qua vide ban thidt bi quan su nhu tau ngam, vii khi cho cac nudc ven Bien Ddng, su dyng cac hai cang cua cac nudc ven Bidn Ddng cho cac chidm ham Nhat. Thii tudng Nhat Ban Noda ngay 05/10/2011 da dd nghi Hdi nghi Thugng dinh Ddng A 11/2011 tai Indonesia thiet lap mdt ca che chung vd an ninh bdng hai. Sang kien nay khdng dan thuan la mpt dien dan thao luan, ma la mdt CO che xem xet cac bidn phap cu the de bao dam van de an ninh tren bien, trong dd cd viec giai quyet tranh chap Bien Ddng. Thii tudng Noda hy vpng lanh dao 10 nudc ASEAN ciing nhu 7 nudc khac la An Dp, Han Qudc, Hoa Ky, Nga, New Zealand, Tmng Qudc va Australia se dat dugc ddng thuan trdn ke hoach cua Nhat Ban, dd khdi ddng CO che nay va ghi nhan trong ban Tuyen bd chung. Co chd mdi vd an ninh hang hai nay boat dpng tren co sd cac cupc hpp cap quan chuc cao cdp va chuyen gia den tir 18 qudc gia thanh vien Hdi nghi Thugng dinh Ddng A. Tokyo tin tudng ring, CO chd nay se din ddn mpt khudn khd da phuong mdi de giai quydt cac tranh chip
h ^ g hai d Bien Dong va cac viing bien 13n can. Dd la bg Qui tac iing xur tai Bien Ddng mang tinh chat rang budc. Dd la mdt cd ging khac ciia Nh^t nham ddi phd vdi thai do quydt dodn ngay cang tang cua Bac Kinh tren cac viing bien trong khu vyc.
Tuy nhidn, nhu ngudi ta thiy, sang kidn ciia Nhat Ban da khdng trd thanh hien thue do bat ddng sau sac giiia cac nudc tham gia Thugng dinh Ddng A nam 2011. Tdi Hdi nghi thugng dinh Ddng A nam 2012, sang kien nay cang khdng dugc dd cap trudc lihiing bat ddng sau sac giiia eac nudc, nhit la thai dp thieu xay dyng cua Tmng Qudc va nudc chu nhd Campuchia.^
4. Lpi ich dia chien lu-gc ciia LiSn bang Nga
Nudc Nga vdn kin tieng thi nay ciing da bay td lap tmdng khdng can thiep va phan ddi can thiep cua My, iing hd each tidp can timg cap song phuong ciia Trung Qudc (md hinh tryc - nan hoa), ma chi quan tam chu yeu den hgp tac kinh td vdi cac nudc tren Bidn Ddng tmdc het \a vdi Viet Nam hdn ITnh vyc khai thae diu khi d thdm lyc dia Viet Nam. Khia canh lgi ich kinh ti va an ninh dugc long ghep vdi nhau tinh ti trong chinh sach thyc dung cua nudc Nga. Didu de thay la Nga da tim thiy mdt thi tmdng xuit khiu vu khi ldn d cac nudc Ddng Nam A,
Shigeo Hiramatsu- tai lieu da d3n.
Nguon: Viet.rfi.fr. dang tfftl http://boxitvn.blogspot.com/2011/I0/nhat-ban-se-e- nghi-thanh-lap-mot-co-che.htm
£jdl ieh ttSa ehieit igrtfe,.. 65
trong dd chu yeu la may bay chidn diu, tau ngim va td hgp ten lira bidn dai. Hgp ddng trang bi quan sy ndy mang lai cho Nga nhidu ti ddla mdi nam. Chang han viec mua cua Nga 6 tau ngam tang hinh Idp Kilo budc Viet Nam phai xay dyng can cir va ca sd bao dudng cho cac tau do. Vay la Nga se cd mpt hgp ddng xay dyng can cii tau ngam cho Viet Nam d Cam Ranh cd kinh phi nhieu ti ddla. Tinh hinh tranh chap d Bien Ddng cang ndng len bao nhieu, nhu cau nhap khau vii khi ciia cac ben, ke ca Tmng Qudc, ciing tang len bay nhieu, nhat Id tmdng hgp Viet Nam, khi ma My van cam van vu khi sat thuong ddi vdi Viet Nam. Cd ngudi Nga da len tidng khd thing than rang Nga diing ngoai xung dot d Bien Ddng giiia Viet Nam va Tmng Qudc nhung se cung cdp vu khi cho phia Viet Nam.
Quan didm chinh thdng cua Nga thd hien trong tuyen bd ciia Bd trudng Ngoai giao 1. Lavrov: "Nga khdng ddt nhiem vu bdo ve cdc dudng hien gidi phia Nam hdng cdch lam suy yeu an ninh cita cdc nudc khac.
Nga khdng co ki hogch xdy dung cdc cdn cir quan su lgi Chdu A-Thai Binh Duang, ciing nhu khdng cd y dinh cgnh tranh dnh hudng vdi bdi ky ai. Nd luc ciia Nga trong viec cung cd hgp tdc vdi ASEAN khdng nhdm chdng lgi cdc nudc ihic 6a."'° Phdn tich sy di^u chinh chidn lugc ddi ngoai va an ninh
'" DSn theo D 5 Minh Cao: Vdn di Bien D6ng_ Quan mim dia Nga. T?p chi Nghien cihi ChSu Au, so 3(138)/2012, tr. 17.
Ciia Lien bang Nga trong tnmg han ke tir nam 2012 trd di dudi thdi Tdng thdng Putin cho thay tim quan trpng chien lugc ciia quan he ngoai giao Nga-Tmng em thim ddi vdi viec phat trien kinh td cua Nga va bao dam an ninh bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc d Vien Ddng. Dd la uu tien sd mdt. Sd dT Nga cd mpt chinh sach nhu the ddi vdi Tay Thai Binh Duang la do vi tri dia chinh tri dac bidt ciia Nga: Ddi tdc thuang mai quan trpng nhat ciia Nga chinh la lang gieng Trung Qudc d phia Ddng va Lien minh Chau Au d phia Tay.
De tiep can An Dp, Nga khdng can thdng qua Bidn Ddng d Ddng Nam A, ma chu yeu qua nga chau Au va mdt phdn qua cac nudc Tmng A vdn thudc khdng gian Xd viet cu. NghTa la sy thdng thuang vdi the gidi cua Nga khdng Id thupc vao Bien Ddng nhu cac nudc Nhat Ban, Han Qudc hay Tmng Qudc. Vi the, Nga khdng cd y djnh xac lap quyen kiem soat Bidn Ddng, nhung yeu cdu quydn ty do luu thdng tren Bidn Ddng. Han niia Nga biet ty lugng siic minh:
Thdi dai md Nga la sieu cudng toan cau chua tdi va chap nhan nhudng vj tri canh tranh tay ddi vdi My cho Trung Qudc - hai nen kinh te Idn nhat the gidi va chira dyng nhung xung dot lgi icb ehien lugc khd dung hoa.
Tuy nhien, nhiing dau hieu gan day ve tang cudng mat thiet quan he chien lugc vdi Tmng Qudc xung quanh van dd khiing hoang Ukraina (tir thdng 11-2013 den nay) va Nga im l^g trudc vipc Trung Qudc d^t gian
66 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 n65).2014
khoan diu HD 981 vao vimg dac quydn kinh td ciia Viet Nam (tir ngay 1/5/2014) - mdt ddi tac chidn lugc vd ddng minh tmyen thdng eua Nga - da bpc Id nbiing toan tinh danh ddi Igi ich chien lugc thyc dung cua Lien bang Nga trong tinh trang Nga bi phuong Tay cd lap. Do la chua ke den muc tidu thyc dung ciia 'ldi siing' Nga trong xuat khau vii khi cho tat ca cac bdn tranh chap dang chay dua vii trang hidn dai hda hai quan va khdng quan nham budng lgi khdng Id tir do. Vd van de nay, nha nghien cim M.L. Titarenko da neu nhan dinh rang: Ddi vdi nhidu nudc ASEAN, vide hgp tac ve mat ky thuat - quan sy vdi Nga Id dieu cd y nghTa sdng cdn, trudc tien la thudng xuyen mua may bay chien dau, ky thuat tbiet giap, tdn lira phdng khdng va phu tiing, linh kidn dy trii ciia Nga.
Trong dd quan trpng nhat la Indonesia, Viet Nam," va cd the ca Malaysia. Tir dd dd hidu tai sao Nga cd mpt lap trudng khac han My va An Dp. Nha nghidn ciiu ngudi Dire Felix Seidlier khang dinh rdng, Nga se khdng bao gid can dy vao xung dot Bien Dong, mpi dy doan tmdc kia ve sy can thiep cua Nga ddu sai hoan toan. (Als vdllig falsch erweist sich heule die damalige These, Russland werde im Siidchinesischen Meer milspielen. Das isl nichtpassierl iind wird es auch nicht).^^
Thai dp 'nudc ddi' cua Nga cdn the hien qua hgp tac khai thae dau khi vdi Viet Nam d thdm luc dia Viet Nam, bat chip Trung Quoc phan ddi, trong khi dd lai dien tap hai quan ldn chua timg cd vdi Trung Qudc. Gin day tuyen bd cua dai sii Nga tai Philippine thang 5/2012 rang Nga phan ddi cdc nudc ngoai khu vyc Ddng Nam A can dy vao tranh chap chu quyen trdn Bidn Ddng va gian tiep ung hd phuang thiic 'song phuong' ciia Tmng Qudc... cang lam day len lo ngai ve su phan liet ciia cdng ddng qudc te, pha buy xu the tap hgp sire manh ciia cac nuoc ASEAN, tao co hdi don phuang lan tdi ciia Tmng Qudc trong thyc hien chidn thuat 'chia de tri, 'be timg chiec diia' cua Tmng Qudc. "•
5. Lpi ich dia chien lupc ciia An Dd Gidng nhu cac cudng qudc khac d Chau A-Thai Binh Duong, An Dp cd lgi ich chidn lugc quan trgng tren Bien Ddng xet ca d khia canh kinh td thuang mai va an ninh qudc phdng khi nhin tir gdc dg dia kinh te va dia chinh tri. Xet ridng tren khia canh an ninh qudc phdng, phai dat vin dd Bidn Ddng ddi vdi An Dp trong tdng thd quan he dia chinh tri giiia An Dp, Tmng Quoc va Ddng Nam A. Lich sir hang thd ky nay da chiing kidn cac xung dot bien gidi lanh thd giiia hai dai qudc nay, ma phan chiu o ep va thua thiet la M.L. Titarenko: Y nglua dia chinh tri vung ViSn
Dong, nudc Nga. Trung Quoc va cdc nudc chdu A khac. Do Minh Cao djch. Nxb Tir di^n bach khoa. Ha Noi, 2012, trang 495.
'' Fehx F. Seidler httpV/aussen- sicherheitspolitik.de/8Q97/rei;ioneii/asien/es-wird- noch-enger-im-suedchinesischen-meer
' Tham chi mgt s6 hoc gia Nga cdn cho ring Vi^
Nam khong co kha nang chong i^i y d6 ciia Trung Qu6c va_khuyen Viet Nam 'khong nen chai vdi lira'.
Xem: Do Minh Cao: Vdn di Biin Dong: Quan dtim cua Nga. Tap chi Nghien ciiu Chau Au, s6 3(138)/
2012, tr. 12-19.
£j^ (eh itia ehien liide.,.. 67
phia An Dp. Cudc tranh chip bien gidi tren lyc dia van cdn ndng bdng va cd ve nhu An Dp van chua tim ra doi sdch hiiu bieu dd ddi phd vdi Trung Qudc. Tinh hinh cang trd nen kich tinh hon khi Tmng Qudc gia tang hien dien va anh hudng trdn An Dp Duong vdi vide hinh thanh 'chudi can cii ngpc trai' nhim khdng che An Dp Ducmg vao bao vdy An Dp. Vi the, viec An Dp vach ra chien lugc 'pha vay' va tim ddi tac ddng minh d Ddng Nam A nham ddi trpng vdi Tmng Qudc va 'chia lua' vdi An Dp cd tdm quan trpng dac biet. Khdng len tieng dn ao nhu My, nhung An Dp da vach ra chinh sach
"hudng Ddng" tir kha lau. Chinh sach nay cho phep An Dp ngam thu hiit va dan thidt lap anh hudng ddi vdi cac qudc gia trong khu vyc. Bidn Ddng la mdt viing bien rdng ldn ma nhieu nudc phu thudc vd boat dpng thuang mai tren bien ciing nhu vide qua lai ciia tdu thuyen. "Nbiing nudc nam ngoai ASEAN cd thd thach thirc y dd ba chii Bien Ddng cua Trung Qudc chu yeu bao gdm Han Qudc, Dai Loan, Nhat Bdn, My, cac nudc Idn d chau Au, Australia va An Dp." Do la nhan dinh cua vi tudng An Dp (nghi huu) Vinod Saighal.''' Ong cung cho ring, My va An Dp ddu tuyen bd cdng khai la cd Igi ich ve cdn cir hdi qudn a midn Nam Viet Nam.
Dang ndi nhit la, trong nhiing thang gan day. An Dg da dat dugc nhiing budc dot pha
an tugng trong vide tang cudng quan he quoc phdng vdi cac nudc d khu vyc Ddng Nam A.'^ Danh sach cdc ddng minh trong khu vyc cua An Dp gia tang nhanh chdng. Thang I nam 2012, An Dp va Philipines da td chiic Hdi nghi hgp tac Qudc phdng tai Manila, day manh quan he trdn ITnh vyc quan sy. Ngoai ra, cac qudc gia trong khu vyc khong ai xa la vdi cac dgt tap tran chung thudng nien giiia An Dp va dao qudc su tu Singapore.
Singapore va An Dp vira ky Ban ghi nhd (MOU) vd Hgp tac qudc phdng ngay 13/2/2012 nhim thiic day hgp tac song phuang trong cac ITnh vyc nhu chinh sach qudc phdng, giao due va ddo tao quan sy, nghien ciiu va phat tridn, hau can. Ben canh dd, tuy ndn cdng nghiep qudc phdng An Dp cdn khiem tdn, nhung nudc nay ciing gianh dugc nliieu hgp ddng mua ban trang thiet bi qudc phdng cho cac qudc gia trong khu vyc khi cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A tang ngan sach qudc phdng va hien dai hda quan dpi, trong dd tieu bidu la Indonesia, Philippine va Viet Nam.'^
Trong quan he vdi Viet Nam, An Dp da dat dugc nhidu cam ket quan trpng vdi tu each ddi tac chidn lugc ciia nhau. Ve vai trd cua Viet Nam d Ddng Nam A, giao su Bharat Kamad (Trung tam Nghien cuu
" http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/toa-dam-hoi-thao/hoi- thao-quoc-te-ve-bien-dong-lan-2-ho-chi-minh- li2010/U53-tinh-hinh-bin-ong-nm-2010-anh-gia-i-n-
hltp://baodatviet vn/Home/ihe^ioi/Vai-lro-cua-An- Do-troni;-tro-choi-quven-luc-huong-
done/20123/195966.datviel
"' hiip:/f'baodatviel.vn/Home/thegioi/Vai-tro-cua-An- Do-trona-tro-choi-quven-iuc-huon^-
dont;/20123/195966-datviet
68 NGHIEN Ciru CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 (165).2014
Chinh sach tai New Delhi) cho rang: An Do xem Viet Nam "nhu tiin tuyin cua An Do vd do vdy, mang tdm quan trong ddc biet. "
Vdi hai quan An Dp, vide dugc Viet Nam cho phep sir dung cang Nha Trang tai Bien Ddng cd y nghia vd cimg to ldn ve ca chinh tri vd qudc phdng. Cang Nha Trang nim ciing kinh dp vdi can cii cua Ham dpi Nam Hai cua Trung Qudc tren dao Hai Nam.
Day la mdt thdng diep vdi Tmng Qudc ring cd nhieu cudng qudc cung cd quydn lgi tai Bidn Ddng, va viing bidn ndy khdng phai "ao nha" cua Tmng Qudc. Sy kien Tmng Qudc bach sach tau hai quan An Dp INS Airavat (tdu ndy khi tren dudng tir Nha Trang ra Hdi Phdng dd hi Trung Quoc cdnh hdo la vdo viing biin cua nudc ho - BBC) hdi thang 7/2011 da chiing td hai dieu: Mdt la. An Dp san sang chap nhan riii ro chinh tri-qudc phdng dd giiip Viet Nam tai khang dinh chu quyen trong viing bien cua minh; Hai Id, An Dp Cling sin sang giiip cung cd nguyen tdc vd tu do luu thdng bang hai trong khu vyc.'"
Ciing theo BBC, hien Delhi dang cdn nhac mdt each tich cyc ydu cau cung cap tdn lira hanh trinh Brahmos cho Ha Ndi, va day ciing la tin hieu khien Bac Kinh se phai can nhac lai mpt lin niia chinh sach bien hung hang ciia minh.
6. Lpri ich chiin lirgc cua Lidn minh Chau Au (EU)
EU cd mdi quan tam ldn ddn Biin Ddng ndi rieng va Ddng A ndi chimg d hai khia canh la hod binh an ninh va hgp tdc kinh ti.
Ngudi ta tinh ring, su ddi dau d Dong A se anh hudng ldn tdi EU bdi lgi ich eiia 28 nudc d khu vuc, vdi 18,1% xuit khiu va 30,1% nhap khiu.'^
Trdn khia canh kinh ti, giiia EU va Nhat Ban, Han Qudc cd quan he diu tu va thuang mai ciing rit ldn: 18,1% xuat khiu ciia EU la tdi Ddng A, trong khi todn chau A la 21,4%.
EU nhap khiu 30,1% hang hda tir Ddng A yong tdng sd 34,3% tir chau A.^° Qua do cho thiy su phu thupc lin nhau vd thuong m?i giGa EU va Ddng A da tao ca hdi ldn, nhung Cling rui ro cao. Vdi Tnmg Qudc, vi mat kinh ti, cd thd thiy su rang budc ldn voi EU, mgt khu vuc dang phai ddi dien vdi nhflng khd khan rit ldn, trong khi Tmng Qudc lgi la mpt thd lyc kinh td mdi ndi, cd du trfl ngoai td rdt ldn va mdt cdng xudng san xuat hang boa cho toan the gidi. Do dd, mpt trong nhiing muc tidu an ninh trong chinh sach ddi ngoai cua EU la thiic day hda binh va dn dinh d Ddng A.
Ve mat hod binh vd an ninh, moi quan ngai cua EU chu yeu xuat phat tir bdn sac cua minh vdi tu each la mgt khdi cudng qudc
" http://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vietnani/2011/10/
111010 president mdiavisit_analysis.shtml '^ http://www,bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vietnam/2011/10/
111010 president Jndiavisit analvsis.shtml
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/84013/ffii-o-daM:
tronp-xung-dot-bien-dong-.html
^^ http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/R4nn/eu-o-dati:
trong-xunp-dot-bien-done-.btml
£)^ ieh ftia ehien tjUtfe... 69
yeu chudng hoa binh chuin myc. Vi thd, mac du lam an Idn vdi Trung Quoc, nhung cac nuoc EU v i n nhin Trung Qudc khdng chi la mdt the lyc hung ban dang trdi day, ma cdn vi bdn chat he gia tri tieu cue ma nd theo dudi: Nen cai tri phi dan chu vdi mdt chu nghTa tu ban hoang da vd ban chit, ludn vi pham cac cam kdt vd an toan thyc phim cung nhu luat Id qudc td va nhdn quydn ndi chung chi de thyc hien cac tham vpng lgi ich cua minh.^' Do dd, neu cac nudc chau A tien hanh cac cai each kinh te va chinh tri theo hudng nha nudc phap quyen va dan chu thi EU sin sang danh cho nhiing uu dai va giiip dd. Myanmar vdi nhiing cai each dugc dau tu han mdt nam qua la mot vi du tieu bieu.
Hidn tgi Ddng A la khu vyc ciia bdt dn do cac qudc gia tang cudng trang bi vii khi quan sy, va bat ddng gia tang giiia Trung Qudc va Dai Loan, de dpa eiia vdn de hat nhan trdn bdn dao Tridu Tien va xung dot Nam Bdc Tridu Tien. Cac tranh chap d cac quan dao giap ranh giiia cac nudc Ddng Bac A vdi nhau, tranh chip chu quydn tren Bien Ddng v.v... ddu dugc EU quan tam theo ddi vdi sy lo ling sau sdc.
Tuy nhidn, do khdng tap tmng no lyc vio xay dyng lyc lugng quan sy va phdng thu rieng vi n i m chii ydu trong khdi NATO dudi sy chi huy cua My, EU khdng the cd
bidn phap quan sy va an ninh cu the de thiic day hda binh va dn dinh d Ddng A, va tmdc sau gi thi Chau Au ndi chung, ca EU va Nga, ddu khdng can thiep vdo van dd Bidn Ddng, nha nghien cuu cuu Felix Seidler khang dinh.
Tuy vay van dd an ninh khu vyc Ddng A vdn dac biet quan trgng vdi kinh td EU va the gidi ndi chung. Do dd, mdt kbi xung dot xay ra d Bien Ddng, rdt cd the cac qudc gia EU se hanh ddng don le de duy tri luat phap va trat ty, hoac dd dam bao an toan hang hdi nham bao vd lgi ich thuang mai d khu vyc ndy. Ddng thdi, vdi tu each toan khdi, EU cd the can du thdng qua NATO. Dii sao, ca Anh va Phap van cd the hanh dpng ridng neu dd thudc vd lgi ich cua hp. Ca Anb vd Phap deu cd luc lugng bai quan manh, bao gdm ca kha nang hai nudc trien khai tau san bay.
7. Ket luan
Lgi ich ciia cac cudng qudc trdn the gidi tai Bidn Ddng rat da dang, nhidu cap dp, cd sy khac bidt nhdt dinh gifla hp vdi nhau va vi the cac chinh sach ciia timg nudc ciing khac nhau. Nhung giira cac cudng qudc van cd nhung lgi ich chung tao nen tidng ndi chung trong kien tao hoa binh d Bien Ddng, trong dd Trung Qudc la cudng qudc duy nhat cd tham vpng ba chiem lanh thd va tao ra cac xung dot ddy kich tinh d khu vyc.
" U Nguyen: D6i di?n vdi Tmng Quoc, nudc c6 nao cho Vi^t Nam tren ban c6 th^ gidi hi^n nay?
hrtp://www. vanhoanghean.com vn/. chu nh|t, 15 thing 7 nam 2012, 15:20
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tn/84013/eu-o-dau- trong-xung-dol-bien-dong-. html
70 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 {U5).2014
Nguyen nhdn chinh khien Tmng Qudc ngay cang ty tin va manh bao trong cdc hanh ddng gay ban vdi hai nudc Viet Nam va Philippine, ngang nhidn tbuc hien nhieu bidn phdp, chinh sach khac nhau, ca vide diing sue manh ciing va siic manh mem nham ddc chiem Bien Ddng, la d chd, cac nudc cd tranh chap vdi Tmng Qudc va ca khdi ASEAN ddu khdng phai Id ddi thii can sue vdi hp. Hon niia, thai dp thieu quydt liet va diit khoat ciia mdt sd cudng qudc, kd ca My, the hien trong sy qua mem mdng vdi Tmng Qudc tai Hpi nghi thugng dinh ASEAN 17 thang 11/2012 cung kliidn Tmng Qudc ty tin vao chien lugc ddc chiem Bidn Ddng ciia minh. Mdi lo chinh bien nay cua 4 nudc ASEAN cd tranh chap tryc tiep vdi Tmng Qudc chinh la kha ndng thoa hiep cua cac nudc ldn vdi Trung Quoc vi tam nhin thidn can va lgi ich qudc gia cyc bp ciia hp. Mpt sd hoac tat ca cac nudc ldn nay cd the chip nhan dd Bac Kinh khang dinh chu quydn
"cua minh" ddi vdi mpt phan Idn hay toan bd ca hai quan dao Hoang Sa va Tmdng Sa vdi dieu kien Trung Qudc bao dam sy ty do luu thong tren cac tuydn hang bai d Bidn Ddng.
Y kien cua mot hpc gid Australia gin day vd viec cac cudng qudc ndn chip nhan anh hudng dpc tdn ciia Trung Qudc ddi vdi ban dao Ddng Duong la mdt hien tugng bao hieu khuynh hudng day riii ro nay. Day la mdt
khuynh hudng bat lgi va nguy hiem nhdt cho cac nudc, nhat la Viet Nam. Van de kha nang thda, hiep cua cdc nudc ldn vdi Trung Qudc can dugc gidi nghien cuu chidn lugc vd hoach dinh chinh sach nghien cuu toan dien va than trpng nhat.
Tuy nhidn nhiing chuydn ddng dia chidn lugc tLT dau nam 2012 vdi tuydn bd 'Trd Igi chau A' ciia My cho den khdng khi cua diln dan Shangri-La tai Singapore (6/2012) va Hdi nghi thugng dinh ASEAN 17 tai Phnom Penh thang 11/2012 da cho thay van con nhieu ca hpi cho cac ca che hgp tac da phuang mdi dd tdng cudng dn djnh va thue diy thuang mai va an ninh chung d Bidn Dong.^^ Xu thd da phuang hoa, qudc td hoa vin dd Bien Ddng la khdng thd dao ngugc cho dii ndi bd khdi ASEAN ham chiia khdng it bat ddng giiia cac nhdm nudc cd lgi ich khac nhau va sy can thiep diy tham hidm ciia Trung Qudc trong nam Campuchia lam chu tjch luan phien cua ASEAN. Quan diem qudc te hoa van dd Bidn Ddng da duoc Bp tmdng Ngoai giao Viet Nam tuydn bd rd rang sau khi kdt thue Hdi nghi Thugng dinh ASEAN 11/2012.^"
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh:
tri/tuanvietnam/61019/hQD-tac-tren-rn-so-suc-manh:
tai-bien-dong.html. Chau Giang djch tir CNAS http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh:
tri/tuanvietnam/98199/asean-va-chnYen-quoc-te-hoa:
-bien-dong.html
£ai ieh itia dden itttfe... 71
Cac dien bien gan day xung quanh tranh chap Bien Ddng, quan didm ciia cdc qudc gia, trudc het la cua cac chidn lugc gia deu cho thiy Bidn Ddng la nai dang tap trung nhflng xung dot ldn nhit, ndng bdng nhat cua thdi dai va bao hidu xu hudng xung dot chu yeu trong tuang lai ciia the gidi. Noi ddy - trung tam dan sd va tang trudng kinh te ciia thd gidi - tap tmng khdng chi cac mau thudn Igi ich dia chinh tri, ma cdn la nai tap trung xung dot vd he gia tri, ve cac md hinh chinh tri xa hdi cua cac cudng qudc the gidi, xung dot gifla
toan cau hoa va khu vyc boa, giua chu nghia dan tdc va chu nghia qudc td, giua md cua va ddng cua, giiia can bang vd cyc quydn... Vi the, viec giai quydt cac ximg dot vd chu quyen va an ninh trdn Bidn Ddng ddi hdi nd luc ldn va kien tri, chinh sach kidn djnh va khdn ngoan cua tat ca cac ben, trong dd viec lya chpn chidn lugc va chinh sdch cua Viet Nam trong quan he qudc td can phdi ket hgp va trdn bet dua vao tang cudng ndi lyc ciia dan tdc la yeu td quydt dinb. Cd the tdm lugc cac Igi ich cua cac cudng qudc d Bien Ddng theo bang dudi ddy:
Tieu chi Vi icli Nudc Trung Quoc My NMt Ban Nga An Dp EU
Kinli t l
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Chu thich: Dau +/- bieu thi miic id quan tam.
Tai lieu tham Idiao
1. Do Minh Cao: Vdn de Bien Bong:
Quan diem ciia Nga. Tap chi Nghien ciiu Chau Au,s6 3(138)/2012, tr. 17.
2. Felix F. Seidler: Es wird nich enger im suedchincsischen Meer, in: http://aussen-
sicherheitspolitik.de/8097/regionen/asienyes- wird-noch-enger-im-suedchinesischen-meer 3. Le Hong Nhat.- Ban chii ciia xung dot chit quyen lai Bien Dong, Nguon: Sai Gon Tiap thi http://vtc.vn/311-292551/quoc-
72 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6 {165).2014
te/ban-chat-cua-ximg-dot-chu-quyen-tai- bien-dong.htm, 06/07/2011
4. Le Nguydn: Ddi dien vdi TQ, nudc ca ndo cho VN tren bdn cd the giai hien nay?
http://www.vanhoanghean.com.vn/, Chii nhat, 15 Thang 7 2012.
5. Luang Van Kd: Chuyin ddng dia chinh tri Bien Ddng vd lua chgn cua Viet Nam. Tap chi Ly luan chinh tri, sd 10/2012.
6. Luang Van Kd: Cdc he hinh chuyin ddng dia chinh tri. Tap chi Nhung vin dd kinh td va chinh tri thd gidi. Sd 8/2012.
7. Nguydn Trung: Chd dung cua Viit Nam trong thi gidi da cue. Tap chi.Thdi dai mdi. sd 11,7/2007.
8. Shigeo Hiramatsu.- China's Advances in the South China Sea: Strategies and Objectives", Asia Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, May 2001, tr. 40-50 (Tmng Qudc tidn cdng yen Bidn Nam Trung Hoa (Bidn Ddng): Chidn lugc va myc tidu); Nguai dich:
VU Quang Viet, tren: Viet-Studies - Tgp chi Thdi dgi mdi. Sd 4 - Thdng 3/2005.
9. Titarenko, M.L.: Ynghia dia chinh tri vung Viin Ddn, nuac Nga, Trung Qudc vd cdc nudc Chdu A khac. Dd Minh Cao dich.
Nxb Tir dien bach khoa. Hd Ndi, 2012
10. htQ>://baodatviet.vn/Home/thegioi/V ai-tro-cua--An-Do-trong-tro-choi-quyen-luc- huong-dong/20123/195966.datviet
11. http://boxitvn.blogspot.com/2011/10 /nhat-ban-se-e-nghi-thanh-Iap-mot-co- che.html
12. http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/toa- dam-hoi-thao/hoi-thao-quoc-te-ve-bien- dong-lan-2-ho-chi-minh-l 12010/1153-tinh- hinh-bin-ong-nm-2010-anh-gia-t-n-
13. http ://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh- tri/tuanvietnam/61019/hop-tac-tren-co-so- suc-manh-tai-bien-dong.html, Chau Giang dich tir CNAS
14. http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh- tri/tuanvietnain/98199/asean-va-chuyen~
quoc-te-hoa—bien-dong.html
15. http ://vietnamnet. vn/vn/chinh- tri/84013/eu-o-dau-trong-xtmg-dot-bien- dong-.html
16. http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh- tri/84013/eu-o-dau-trong-xung-dot-bien- dong-.html
17. http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh- tri/tuanvietnam/71406/chinh-sach-bien-cua- my.btml
18. http://wviTv.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vi etnam/2011/10/111010_j)resident_indiavisit_
analysis, shtml
