f H n ThiTc tiln - Klnh nghiem
Nhan dinh xu the
thien tai khi tutfng thuy van nam 2017
O HOANG D U C ClidNG
Gidm die Trung tam Dtfbdo Khf tUtfng Thdy vdn Trung Udng
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tf dau nim din nay, Trung tam Dtfbdo KTTV Trung Udng da theo ddi chgt che tinh hinh KTTV trin phgm vi ca nudc, phdt hign vd dtfbdo kip thdi dc hign tUtfng thdi tiit, thuy vdn nguy hiim. Cdng tdc dnh bdo sdm dugc die bigt chd trgng; dc ban tin thien tai ludn kem theo cip dg rui ro thien tai gdp phin quan trgng trong cdng tdc phdng, chong.Theo ddnh gid cDa hdu h i t cdc Trung tdm kht hdu Idn trdn t h i gidi. nhidt dd mat nude biln tgi khu vffc trung tdm xfch dgo Thdi Binh Dffdng (NINO 3.4) cd xu hffdng tdng nhanh tff ede thdng dau ndm 2017. Hign tgi, chuin sai nhigt do mat nffde biln khu vffc NINO 3.4 dang cao hdn so vdi gid trj trung binh ehuan la 0.1 °C. Nhu vdy hign nay, ENSO dang d tt^ng ttidi trung tfnh vd dang ed d i u hi0u ehuyin tff pha lgnh sang ndng cDa hidn tffgng ndy.
Ting hgp d c k i t qud dff bdo cDa d e md hinh, Co quan Khf tffgng Uc (BoM) nhgn djnh.
ENSO se dgt ngffdng bit diu cffa hidn tffpng El Nino vdo khodng ttldng 7/2017 vdi xde suit khodng 70%. Tuy nhidn, BoM eung khuyen edo ve do ttn cdy thip cDa d e md hinh dff bdo vdo thdi dilm nay trong nam. Trung tam Dff bdo Khf hdu Hoa Ky (CPC/NCEP) dff bdo xde suit xult hidn El Nino vdo khoang 50 - 60% trong nhffng thang dau mua he va xac suat ndy tdng Idn
vdo thdi k^f euli ndm 2017. K i t qud dff bao t l hgp nhilu thanh phdn cDa Trung tdm Du bdo Thdi ttIt hgn vffa Chdu Au (ECMWF) eho thiy, ehuin sai nhiet dd mat nffde biln khu vffc NIN03.4 se dgt ngudng El Nino vdo khodng thdng 6/2017. Trung tdm Khi hdu Tol<yo, Nhdt Bdn (TCC) dff bao, khd ndng xult hien El Nino trong mua he vdi xac suit khodng 50%.
Nhu vdy. theo cde dff bdo mdi nhit thi da so cac Cd quan dff bdo khf h^u tren t h i gidi d i u eho ring, hien tffgng ENSO se ed xu hffdng chuyen sang trgng thai El Nino tff nffa cuoi nam 2017 vd n l u vdy. se Id nam thff 3 lidn ttip xult hi&n Ei Nino chl sau mdt thdi ky tffdng doi ngin chuyen sang trang thdi La Nina.
Bdo vd dp thip nhiit ddi: N l u hidn tffgng ENSO chuyin sang Tdi nguydn vd Mdi tru'dng | Kyi-Thing 5^017 ^ 1
trgng thii El Nino v i o nl!ra culi n i m 2017, se tac dpng thed hudng giim sp hdat ddng ci!ia b i o v i i p thap nhiit ddi (ATND) tren Bien Ddng cung nhu i n h hudng true tilp d i n d i t liln nudc ta. Tuy nhien, t i c ddng nay ehl rd ret v i o nila culi mua bao.
Dp b i o trong c i mua bao nam 2017 cd khding 13-15 cdn b i d v i ATND hoat ddng trin Biln Ddng, nhilu hpn so vdi trung btnh nhilu nam (TBNN cd khoing 12 edn). Hogt dOng cDg b i c se nhieu hdn sd vdi TBNN v i d n^a dau mua b i d tren khu vpe Bie Biln Ddng.
Dp b i o cd khoing 3 - 4 cdn bio, ATND d l b i , i n h huSng trpe tilp den di't liln nude ta, it hdn so vdi TBNN v i t i p trung d khu vpe Trung Bp. Ngoii ra, tinh bit quy lugt cCia bio se tang cao vio nhijfng nim chju tic dpng cCia Et Nino.
Lugng mUa: Thdt ky mua nhieu, tap trung 6 khu vpe Bac Bp cd k h i nang mudn v i ngan hdn so vdl TBNN. Lupng mua trdng thing 5 v i thing 9 -10/2017 p h i biln thi'p hdn TBNN tU 10 - 30%
cung thdi ky. Dp bao, lupng mua 6 mdc x i p xITBNN trong thing 6 -8/2017.
Trong thing 5 6/2017, iupng mua d khu vpe Bie Trung Bp, Trung Trung Bd p h i biln thip hdn TBNN tU 10 - 20%, 6 khu vpe Nam Trung Bd xap xi TBNN eung thdi ky. Trong thing 7 - 8/2017, lupng mua S eac khu vpe thuoc Trung Bp pho bien d mUc TBNN ciing thdi ky va thap hon TBNN tu 15 - 30% trong thing 9 - 10/2017. Du bao, miia mua nim 2017 d Tiy Nguyen va Nam Bd d i n sdm nhung co khi nang se k i t thuc sdm. Trong thdi ky ta thing 5 - 8/2017, lupng mUa
p h i biln b mUe cao hdn TBNN khding 30% nhung d i n thing 10/2017 lai thip hdn khoing 30%
Sd vdi TBNN.
Ning ndng vi cie hign tdgng thdi tiSt nguy hiSm: Nhiet dd trung binh tu thing 5-10/2017 t r i n pham vi tdin quic pho bien cao hdn TBNN, d i e biet l i khu vpe phig Bac lanh tho. Ning ndng tgi c i c khu vpe trin tcin quic ed xu hudng khong gay g i t v i it cd kha ning k i d dai.
Trong thdi ky ehuyin mUa (thing 4 5/2017) se thudng xuyin xult hien ddng set, tic xoiy, mUa d i , d i e biet la trung du, vung nui Bae Bd, Bic Trung Bp va khu vpe T i y Nguyin, Nam Bd.
ThOy vin: Trong nda culi thing 4 va thing 5/2017, k h i nang xay ra lu tieu man nhd khdng dong bp t r i n cac song d Bae Bp va Bic Trung Bp.
TU thing 6 - 8/2017, d hg luu cic sdng ven biln Trung Bo k h i nang se xuit hien mpc nudc thap nhat trong chudi s l lieu quan trie cung thdt ky hoae thap nhit Ijch si!r.
Mua ID n i m 2017 t r i n cac sdng 6 Bac Bp k h i ning xuit hien mudn hdn so vdi TBNN; eie song d khu vpe Trung Bp, T i y Nguyin v i sdng M i Cong den sdm hon so vdi TBNN. Dlnh lii nam tren cac song Bie Bd pho biln nhd hOn TBNN. Tren eie sdng chlnh thudng luu he thong song Hong, song Hoing Long v i thupng tuu sdng Thai Btnh co khi nang d mOc bao ddng (BD) 2 d i n dudi BB3. Hg tuu song Hong tgl H i Not va ha luu song Thai Binh S mUc dudi B D I . M6t so sdng suit nho, d miln nut phia Bic ed the xui't hien dlnh lu vupt mUc
BD3. Lu quet, sgt Id dat cd khi ning xui't hiin nhilu hdn so vdi n i m 2016.
Dlnh ID n i m t r i n cae sdng ehinh d Trung Bp, T i y Nguyen p h i bien t h i p hon dlnh lu nim 2016,6 hg luu c i o sing til Thanh Hda den H i TTnh cd k h i ning 6 rnCle b i o d|ng BB1 - BD2, x l p xl dlnh ID TBNN; eic sing tU Quing Binh den Binh Thuin va khu vpe T i y Nguyin b mUe BD2 - BB3, tUdng dUdng TBNN; nguy cd eao x i y ra ID ldn, ID quit b thupng luu c i c sdng chinh va tren cac sdng suli nhd.
Dlnh ID nam b dau nguon sdng Cijfu Long 6 mUe BD2 - BD3, tuong dUdng dlnh ID TBNN, nhung tilm an nguy cd x i y ra 10 len nhanh hdn binh thudng do mua Idn t i p trung k i t hpp vdi dilu tilt ddng ehiy tU thppng luu.
Hii vin: N i m 2017, biin dd thDy trilu b dpc ven bien nude ta b mUc TBNN, trieu cudng tgi ven biln Nam Bd xuat hiin v i o thing 10. Trudng sdng cd k h i ning eao hdn Sd vdi trung binh cDng thdi ky dd hdgt dong mgnh cua gid mua T i y Nam. Khoing thing 5/2017, sdng Idn ed t h i xuit hien trin khu vpe Bie Biln Dong dd t i c ddng eDa bao d i u mDa va vDng biln T i y Nam do hogt ddng sdm eiia gid mUa T i y Nam. Nguy ep nudc d i n g do b i o se t i p trung d ven bien Trung Bp.
Thdi tilt tren biln, vDng ven bd cd k h i ning d i l n bien phde tap hdn so vdi nam 2016. Bao d l bp v i o vung ven bd ed nguy CO g i y ngip lut v i xdt Id bd bien cao hdn nam 2016. Ngoii ra, e i c dpt gid mtia mgnh kit hpp vdi trtlu eudng, sdng Idn se tilp tuc ta nguy co g i y ngip Ipt tai c i e khu vpe trung ven bd va cDa sdng.H
4 2 Tdt nguyen vd tvlol trudng | Ky 1 - Thing 5/2017