CHAU MY NGAY NAY 13
THAM HUT NGAN SACH HOA KY TLTNAM 2008 DEN NAY: NGUYEN NHAN VA TAG DONG
K
e tir nam 1969 din nay, nudc My hau nhu nam nao eung hi tham hut ngan sach, chi cd mgt giai doan ngan (khoang 5 nam) la duy tri dupc mire thang du ngan sach, dd la vap thdi ky cua Tdng thong Bang dan chu Bill Clinton, Tuy nhien, sau khi khung hoang xay ra, mire tham hut ngan sach ngay cang trd nen tram trgng ban, Tinh trang nay da tao ra lire can ddi vdi sir phuc hdi va phat trien kinh ti cua My trong dai ban, ddng thai tac ddng den su dn dinh ciia nen kinh te the gidi, Bai viit trudc het se diem qua thuc trang tham hut ngan sach hien nay cua Hoa Ky, phan tich mgt sd nguyen nhan chuih gay ra miie dp tham hut hien nay va trinh bay mpt sd nhan dinh ve tac ddng eua tham hut ngan sach ddi vdi nen kinh te Hoa Ky.1. Thirc trang tham hut ngan sach hien nay ciia Hoa Ky
Trong giai doan 2008-2013, tham hut ngan sach My tang manh trong nam 2009 vdi 1400 ty USD. Sau dd, miic tham hilt nay giam din qua cae nam, din nam 2012 cdn 1089 ty va tinh din II thang diu nam tai khda 2012-2013 (kit thuc ngay 30/9) thi tham hut ngan
Dong Thi Thuy Linh Vien Nghien citu Chdu My sach cdn d miic 755 ty USD. Cu thi muc tham hut qua cae nam nhu sau:
Nam 2008, tham hut ngan sach ciia My d miic 459 ty USD nhung din nam tai chinh 2009 thi ehi vuot thu mdt khgan Idn chua tiing cd la 1400 ty USD (theo thdng ke cua Van phdng Ngan sach Quoc hpi My CBO cdng bd ngay 7/10/2009).
Miic tham hut ngan sach ky Iuc nay tuong duong vdi 9,9% GDP ciia My trong nam tai khda 2009. Den nam tai khda 2010, do Nha Tring tiip tuc dua ra cac gdi ciiu trg tai ehinh khan cap nhim duy tri sir phuc hii kmh ti sau cudc Dai suy thoai vira qua nen theo CBO thi miie tham hut nay van d miic cao 1170 ty USD, hiong duong 8,99% GDP, Tuy nhien day la mire giam nhe so vdi nam 2009, Nam 2011 la nam thit ba lien tiep ngan sach My tham hut vupt moc 1000 ty USD, udc tinh dat 1300 ty USD, Tham hut nam 2011 tuong duong 8,6%
GDP My, giam so vdi miic 8,9% GDP cuanam2010 va 10% cua nam 2009',
Theo sd Heu Van phdng ngan saeh Qudc hdi My, tham hut ngan sach nam cua nudc nay trgng nam tai khda 2012 la 1089 ty USD, Con so nay tuong dupng 7% GDP, giam 8,7% so vdi nam 2011, 9% so vdi nam 2010 va 10,1% so vdi
s o 07-2014 CHAU MY NGAYNAY^
nam 2009, Tdng thu ngan sach tai khda 2012 cua My dat 2450 ty USD, tang 6,4% so vdi nam ngoai trong khi tdng chi ngan sach dat 3538 ty USD, giam 1,7% so vdi nam ngoai do cae dieu khoan kich thich kinh ti da het han, nin kinh ti da bit dau phiic hdi, kit thuc cac hoat ddng quan sir tai Iraq va viee tiep tuc nit quan khdi Afghanistan, Trong thang 9, ngan saeh My bat ngd dat thang du 75 ty USD^, giup tham hut ngan sach ca nam 2012 thip han 207 ty USD so vdi nam ngoai, Yeu td quan trgng thir hai gdp phan lam giam mite tham hut la trong thang 9, ngudn thue thu nhap tir cac cdng ty tang kha manh cdng vdi 7 ty USD cac cdng ty tai chinh Idn nhu Fannie Mae va Freddie Mac hoan tra eho gdi ciiu trg ciia ehinh phii, Ngudn thu tit thui thu nhap ca nhan trong nam ciing tang khoang 3,4%, Tuy nhien, do tham hut ngan sach van vupt qua 3%
GDP, cao hon mire 1000 ty USD, vi vay nen kinh ti van bi danh gia chua i n dinh trong thdi ky dai ban,
Theo thdng bao cua Bd Tai chinh My ngay I3/9/20I3, miic tham hut ngan sach cua nudc nay trong thang 8 giam 22,5% so vdi mdt nam trudc, dat 147,9 ty USD, dua miic tham hut trong II thang diu tai khda 2012-2013 xuing 755 ty USD, giam 35% so vdi mire 1,2 nghin ty USD ciia cimg ky tai khda trudc' Trong U thang dau nam tai khda 2013, thu ngan sach tang 13% len 2,47 nghin ty USD, trong khi ehi giam 3,9% xuong 3,19 nghin ty USD, Tang
trudng kinh t i dn dinh da giup nhiiu ngudi My quay trd lai Iam viec khiin lpi nhuan doanh nghiep tang. Ben canh do, Qudc hdi va nha Tring da dat duge mdt thda thuan trong thang I nhim giai quyet vin de "vach da tai chinh" dd la cho phep tang thui thu nhap ca nhan ddi vdi ngudi cd thu nhap tir 400.000 USD/ nam trd len va cac cap vg chdng cd thu nhap tir 450.000 USD/nam trd len. Dieu khoan giam 2% diem cua thue an sinh xa hgi eung h,et ban do do viec tang thue gan nhu la ddi vdi tit ea mpi ngudi. Ca hai xu hudng nay da lam tang thu ngan sach cua My. Trpng khi do, viec cat giam chi tieu tu dpng 85 ty USD bat dau dupe thuc hien tir thang Ba, sau hai thang duge Quoc hgi cho phep tri hoan. Kinh t i dn dinh hon khien cho cae khoan trp cap that nghiep ciing vdi mpt so chupng trinh khac cua chinh phu giam da lam giam mire chi ciia chinh phu. Tuy nhien miie tham hut se vin d mire cao do thi he thdi bimg nd dan sd ve huu va cae khoan chi tra eho Medicare va an sinh xa hpi ciing vdi viee thitc hien dao luat cham soc y te nam 2010 (2010 Health Care law).
2. Nguyen nhan dan din tham hut ngan sach
Tham hut ngan saeh cua My tang len mire cao ky Iuc nhu hien nay la do hau qua tir tham hiit ngan sach lien bang keo dai triin mien trgng nhieu nam, Ngay tir thdi cuu tong thing CW.Bush sd np da tang them 4900 ty USD, Din thdi tong
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
thdng Obama eon s i nay la 2400 ty USD Mdt sd nguyen nhan chinh gay ra miic tham hiit ky Iuc hien nay la:
Thir nhdi Hoa Ky Iudn duy tri mdt mdi trudng kinh doanh tu do va ban che cac can thiep cua chinh phu bang each khdng thirc hien viec danh thue eao. Vi vay, so vdi cac nudc phat trien khac khgan thu ngan sach eda My tir thue la thap hon lihieu. Quan diem ciia cac nha lanh dao nudc My qua rit nhieu ddi tdng thdng la duy tri mdt miic thue thap qua dd kich thich kinh te tang trudng manh me va tir do tang thu ngan sach chir khdng theo dudi chinh sach danh thue cao de tang thu ngan sach.
Thic hai, chuang trinh cat giam thue tir thdi ciia tdng thdng Bush khien cho ngudn thu tir thue thap, Viec cat giam thue khien cho thui suat thu nhap hen bang cua tat ca mpi ngudi giam, thue suat tren thu nhap cd tire giam, timg bude xda bd thue ca nhan ddi vdi ddi tugng npp thui ed thu nhap eao va va loai bd thui bat ddng san. Viec cat giam thue nay tac ddng rd ret len ngudn thu thui cua Lien Bang. Nam 2000, tdng thu thui lien bang dat 20,9% GDP, mire cao nhit ke tir nam 1970. Tuy nhien, din nam 2004, thui lien bang da giam xudng edn 16,3% GDP, day la miie thip nhit ki tir nam 1959. Dieu nay cd nghla la ting ngudn thu tir thue hen bang giam 4,6% GDP trong giai doan 2000-2004."
Thir ba, ke tir sau cudc tan cdng ngay 11/09, My bat dau chu frpng han tdi cude chiin chdng khimg bo. Viec ehi
tieu cho eae cudc chien tranh d Iraq, Apganishtan, Libya cung tae ddng khdng nhd den tinh trang tham hut ngan saeh va sir phuc hdi kinh te ciia My.
Mae cho sir suy giam ve ngudn thu do khimg hoang gay ra, chi phi lien quan den an ninh quan su van tang hang nam.
Nam 2012, ehi phi lien quan den an ninh quan su len tdi 909 ty USD.*
Thit tu, tham hut ngan saeh eua My tang do ehi phi bat huge tang. Viec chi tra cho ITnh vue an sinh xa hdi.
Medicare va cac chupng trinh bat budc khac chiem khoang 2 nghin ty USD mdi nam ke tir nam 2011. Cac khoan ehi tra nay chiem phan Idn ngudn ehi hang nam va dieu nay se khd thay ddi neu khdng cd bat ky thay ddi nao cua Qudc hdi.
Thie nam, tac ddng eda cudc khung hgang tai ehinh xay ra nam 2008 khien cho tinh trang tham hut ngay cang tram trpng hpn. Suy thpai kinh te khiin eae khoan chi cho cae gdi kich thieh kinh te va mdt loat eae chuong trinh ciia du trir Lien bang, Kho bac, va Lien hiep bao hiem tien gui lien bang Corporation (FDIC) da dugc tung ra nhu: Qudc hdi ban hanh mdt gdi kich thieh kinh te tri gia 152 ty USD (Ecpnpmic Stimulus Act 2008) de kich thich tieu diing, Tdng thdng Obama da phai dua ra gdi kich thich kinh t i tri gia 787 ty USD va Dao luat tai dau tu va phuc hdi nen kinh te My nam 2009 udc tinh tdng cdng la 831 ty USD. Kem theo dd la ehi tra cho cae khoan trp cap that nghiep, bao hiim that nghiep, bao hiem vd ng va eung
16 SO 07-2014 CHAUMYNGAYNAY_
cap kinh phi cho cac dir an tao cdng an viec Iam mgt each true tiep. Viec md rdng chinh sach tai khda nay la rat can thiet de khdi ddng nen kmh te thoat khdi suy thoai.
Suy thoai kinh te cdn khien thu nhap lien bang hi giam do ngudn thu tir thue giara. Thu nhap eua chinh phu giam tir mire thap ky Iuc la 2568 ty USD trong nam tai ehinh 2007 xudng cdn 2,1 nghin ty USD trong nam tai chinh 2009. Cho den nam tai chinh 2012 thi ngudn thu nay van chua dupc phiic hdi, chi dat 2,45 nghin ty USD.'
Thir sdu, mdt trong nhiing nguyen nhan niia khien cho tham hiit ngan sach ciia My ngay eang phinh to la do viec tra lai cho chinh cac khoan ng edng dg.
Trong nam 2011, Hoa Ky da chi 227 ti USD hay 1,5% GDP cho eae khoan lai rdng do no gay ra'. Chinh phii tra Iai phu thupc vap lai suat thi trupng ciing nhu quy md va thanh phan cua eae khoan ng hen bang. Mgt sa nha kinh ti da bay td lo ngai rang chi phi chi ha lai hen bang cd the tang manh khi kmh t i phue hoi va diiu nay se dem lai ganh nang ehp ngan sach.
3. Tac dong ciia tham hut ngan sach toi nen kinh te Hoa Ky trong dai han
Khi tham hut ngan sach xay ra, chinh phii thudng phai di vay mugn di bu dip cac khpan tham hut dd. Niu tham hut ngan saeh vin tiip tue tang len se khiin ng cdng tang nhanh han, diiu nay se gay hai dang ki din hoat dgng ngan
sach va nin kinh ti. Mdt sd ehuyen gia kmh te cho ring, niu My duy tri tham hut cao khien ng edng tang cd the gay ra nhiing hau qua sau day:
Anh hu&ng din tSc do tang trucmg ktnh te
Ban diu, tham hut ngan sach va no cdng se thiic day tang trudng kinh ti Dieu nay dae biet diing khi suy thoai kinh t i xay ra bdi vi tham hiit ngan saeh se bam mdt lupng tiin nhit dinh vao nin kinh ti. Tuy nhien, neu tham hiit va ng cdng eang tang se Iam sut giam tic do tang htrdng kinh ti. Theo eae nha kinh te Keimeth Rogoff va Carmen Reinhart, trong nam 2010 trong si 20 nude phat trien dupe khao sat se cd toe dp tang GDP hang nam trung binh 3-4%
neu ti le no d miie tuong dii hoac thip (die la dudi 60% GDP) nhung con so, tang trudng se chi edn 1,6% niu ty le no d muc cap (tiic la tren 90% GDP)"
Lai sudt vay na co the cao hon, diiu nay ldm cho chi tieu hen bang ddnh cho cdc khodn thanh todn lat rong cao han.
Khi xay ra tham hut Idn, np edng tang cao, Chinh phu My cd the se de cho gia tri cua ddng USD giam xudng de viec tra ng bing dong USD re ban va it tin kem, Neu dieu nay xay ra thi chmh phu va eae nha dau tu nudc ngoai se it san sang mua trai phieu kho bae cua My, dieu nay khiin lai suit trai phiiu tang len, Mdt nguyen nhan niia khiin Iai suit tang eao do la chu ng mudn Iai suit Idn hpn de bu dip cho nguy co nii ro ngay eang tang do la hp sp ring hp se khdng
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
dugc hoan tra Iai tiin, Chi phi tra Iai them nay se la nhan td khien chinh phu cd gang gia np trong gidi han hpp Iy, Mac dil. My van chua phai ddi mat vdi lai suat qua cao nhung Qudc hgi da nhan ra la My dang phai ddi mat vdi mdt cugc khiing hoang ng,
Thdm hilt ngdn sdch se tdc dong tieu arc den vdn de an sinh xd hoi, khiin cho nen kinh te bi phdt tnen chdm lgi trong tirang lgi.
Social Security Trust Fund dat dugc nguon thu Idn thdng qua cae laai thue thu nhap tir Baby Boomers (the he dupe sinh ra trong thdi ki bung nd dan sd). Ly tudng nhat, sd tien nay se dupc dau tu di cd thi ehi tra khi the he dupe sinh ra trong thdi ki bung nd dan so nghi huu. Nhung tren thuc te, Quy nay da duge chinh phu mugn de tai trg cho tham hut ngan sach dang gia tang, Vin de se trd nen nghiem trgng hon khi cac khoan np din ban liic thi he dugc smh ra trong thdi ki bung nd dan s i nghi huu, diiu nay ddi hdi cac quy se can lupng tien Idn de chi tra cac khoan tien trp cap huu tri ehp hp, Trong 20 nam tdi, Quy Social Security Trust Fund se khdng ed du tien de trang trai cae khoan rien huu tri eho the he dupe sinh ra trpng thdi ki bung nd dan sd. Do dd, chi tieu cua ehinh phu se phai danh nhiiu ban cho viec chi tra bat bude nay, Diiu nay ed the lam nen kinh te phat triin cham lai.
No cdng cua My chi yeu do nudc ngodt ndm gtirsegdy hat cho nen kinh te.
Nhieu ngudi lo ngai rang phin Idn cac khoan ng qudc gia do td chiic nudc ngoai nam giii cd tiem nang gay hai cho nin kinh te My. Cu the, neu ngudi nudc ngoai bat ngd quyet dinh dimg gid trai phiiu kho bae My hoac quyet dinh da dang hda viee nam gift cua hp thi ding USD cd the giam manh vi gia tri va Iam ty le lai suat se tang, dieu nay cd the se lam giam tang trudng kinh te. Ben canh do, cd nhirng lo ngai ve su tich luy cac tai san My cua ehinh phu nude ngoai, chang ban nhu Trung Qudc, se cung cap ddn bay cho chinh phu eae nude nay gay thiet hai cho lgi ich cua My. Mgt sd nha kinh te cho rang miic vay np nudc ngoai cua My d miic hien tai la khdng ben virng va cd the gay ra tac ddng xau ehp nin kinh te My trpng tuang lai.
Ket luan
Tham hiit ngan sach se tac dpng tieu circ din nen kinh te trong dai ban, do dd Chinh phii Hoa Ky dang nd lire Iam giam tham hut va xu ly van de ng cdng.
Tuy nhien, cho du tham hut ngan sach d mue Idn nhung nude My van chua ph4i ddi mat vdi kha nang lam phat ky vgng se tang cag trong tuong lai, Tham hiit ngan saeh Idn se dan den lam phat cao neu Fed bat dau hd trp tai chinh ehp cac hoat ddng ciia chinh phu bing each tang cung tien, Theo luat hien hanh, dieu nay se dupe ngan cam bang Muc 14 cua Dap luat Du trir Lien bang, trong dd cam Cue du tru lien bang mua cac khoan np tnre tiep tu Bd tai chinh, va muc 2A quy
s o 07-2014 CHAU MY NGAY NAY dinh FED CO nhiem vu giu: lam phat a
muc thap. Cac nha kinh te Thomas Sargent va Neil Wallace da quan sat thay rang ngan hang trung uong cu6i Cling cung c6 the bupc phai tien te hoa cac khoan no neu cac nha dau tu tu nhan khong san sang tai trgf cho cac khoan no do va chinh phu tu chdi tang thue hoac cit giam chi tieu. Nha dau tu co the cam nhan duoc tuoiig lai nay va tang lam phat ky vpng cua ho ngay hom nay. NSu cac nha dau tu dir doan rang cac khoan no se hi tien te hoa, ho se yeu cau lai suat cao hon de tai tra cho no, vi vgy lam phat cu6i cung se cao hem neu tham hut bi tien te hoa •
Tai lieu tham khdo:
1 Bloomberg, U S . Deficit Increased to $1.3T in Fiscal 2011, http//www bloomberg com/
news/2011-10- 14/u-s-budget-dbficit- mcreased-to-1 -3 -tni lion-m-fiscal-2011 html 2 Bloomberg, US budget deficit narrow as
stronger growth boost revenue, http.//w\vw.bloomberg com/news/2013-09- 12/u-s-budget-deficit-narrows-as-stronger- growth-boosts-revenue html
3 Foxbusiness, US budget deficit narrow in 2012, http //www.foxbusmess com/industr ies/2012/10/12/us-budget-deficit-narrows-in- 2012/
4. Mindy R Levit 2012, The Federal Budget:
Issues for FY2013 and Beyond
5 Tax policy center. Urban Institue and Brooking Institution, The Bush Tax Cuts How have they affected tax revenue'',
http;//www taxpolicycenter org/briefing- book/background/bush-tax-cuts/revenue.cfm 6 US house of representatives republican
Caucus (2010), The perils of nsing government debt. Republican caucus committee on budget
7 Useconomy, Current U S. Federal Budget Deficit, http //useconomy about,com/od/fis calpohcy/p/deficit-htm.
Chii thich:
1. Bloomberg, U.S. Deficit Increased to $1.3T m Fiscal 2011, http://viww bloomberg com /news/2011-10-14/u-s-budget-deficit- mcreased-to-l-3-trillion-in-fiscal-2011 html 2. Foxbusiness, US budget deficit narrow in
2012
http //www foxbusiness com/industries/2012/
10/12/us-budget-deficit-narrows-in-2012/
3 Bloomberg, US budget deficit narrow as stronger growth boost revenue, http //www.bloomberg com/news/2013-09- 12/u-s-budget-deficit-narrows-as-stronger- grow1h-boosts-revenue.html
4 Tax policy center. Urban Institue and Brooking Institution, The Bush Tax Cuts How have they affected tax revenue"?, http7/www taxpolicycenter org/briefing- book/background/bush-tax-cuts/revenue.cfrn 5. USeconomy, Current U S . Federal Budget
Deficit, http //useconomy.about,com/od/fis calpolicy/p/deficit.htm
6. Useconomy, Current U S Federal Budget Deficit, http://useconomy.about.com/od/fis calpolicy/p/deficit htm
7 Mindy R Levit 2012, The Federal Budget:
Issues for FY2013 and Beyond
8 US house of representatives republican Caucus (2010), The perils of rising government debt. Republican caucus committee on budget
