NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI
Tiem nang va van de che tao thiet bi thuy dien
1. Tinh hinh tai nguyen nang lifgfng niTdfc tren the gidfi
Theo "Tiip ban dd thuy dien nam 2000". ngudn tai nguyen nffdc va tinh hinh khai thdc thuy dien ndm 1998 eda 157 qude gia va khu vi/c tren the gidi, dffdc trinh bay trong bang 1.
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tiling 2: Biing thdng kc tai nguyen ndng Iffdng nUdc c() the khai ihac cda mot sd nffdc chii yeu
(ddn vi linh: ti kWhi
(*) PGS.TS. N G U V E N VAN B A V Theo nhieu ngudn thdng tin. ede sd lieu ve ndng Iffdng nffdc chffa dffdc thd'ng nha't. ehinh thffc hod va chffa day dd. Sd bd ed the neu ede eon sd': Tiem ndng li thuyet cda nang Iffdng thuy dien Viet Nam la 300 ti kWh. trong dd, mien Bdc la 181 ti kWh, mien Trung 89 ti kWh va mien Nam la 30 ti kWh. Tiem ndng khai thdc ki thuat ve thuy ndng khoang 120 ti kWh va khai thac kinh te thuy ndng khoang 80 ti kWh (chffa ed con sd ehinh xac).
Tff nhffng nam 50 cda the ky 20 trd lai day. tde do khai thdc tai nguyen nang Iffdng nffde tren the gidi rat nhanh. Theo thdng k e . edng suat liip may thuy dien eda cdc nffdc tren the gidi ndm 1950 la 72 trieu kW. de-n ndm 1998 da dat 674 trieu kW. tdng 8.36 liin. dffng vi tri thff 2 trong ede ngudn nang Iffdng dien. sau nhiet dien. Tong Iffdng phat dien thuy dien eda ede nffde tren the gidi nam 1950 la 366 ti kWh. den nam 1998 dd dai 2.643 ti kWh. tdng 6.87 Jan. Lffdng phat dien ed the khai ihde kinh le eda the gidi la 8.082 li kWh de tinh mffe do khai thdc tai nguyen ndng Iffdng nffde. Ndm 1950 the gidi mdi ehi khai thac dffde 4.157(, nhffng de'n ndm 1998'da dat 32.7'7f.
Thuy dien nhd vdi edng suat vai kW de-n vai trdm kW dUde sff diing rdng rai d ede dia phffdng mie-n ndi.
Cae trffdng dai hoe eung ed ede bd mdn dao tao edn bd chuyen ngdnh \ e may thuy khi vd edng trinh thuy dien (Trffdng Dai hoe Bdeh khoa Ha Ndi, Trffdng Dai hoe Thdy ldi...). Lffe Iffdng can bd kT thuat dffde d a o tao d nffde ngoiii \'a trong nffde da ed nhicu ddng gdp tdt eho SLf nghiep phdt trien thuy dien (') Viet Nam. Vc edng trinh tram thuy dien, cdn bd kT thuiit Vict Nam da dd nang lffe tff quy hoach, khao sdt, thiol k e , id chffe thi edng xay dffng eae nha may thuy dien vdi eae quy md khae nhau ke ea nha may thuy dien hang trieu kW.
Thffe ra, nganh thuy ldi da ehu y dau tff nghien cffu, thiet ke che tao cdc thuy dien sieu nhd. effe nhd va nhd (N = 0.1 -^ 5,0 kW) va thiet ke xa\ dffng hang ngan id mdy thuy dien phiic vu eho nhu eau ehieu sdng. xem \ d tuyen. chay may edng eu ehe bien ndng lam san. Tieu bieu nhat la trong edng tde dau tff nghien cffu. thiet ke
\ a ffng dung cae thiet bi thuy dien sieu nhd. effe nhd va nhd d nffdc ta la Vien Khoa hoe Thuy ldi Viet Nam (VAWR). Vien da quan tam den \ a n de thuy dien gia dinh tff nhffng ndm 1960 den nay. Sudt thdi gian gan nffa the ky VAWR da ed nhieu ddng giip idi eho edng tde phat trien thuy dien nhii d nffde la.
Trong ITnh \ffe thiet bi thuy dien, Vien Nghien cffu Cd khi (Bd Cdng thffdng). Vien C<( hoe, Cdng ty Cd phan Che tao Thiet bi dien Ddng Anh... ki nhffng ddn \ i
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CD
N G H I E N C L T U • T R A O D O I
da cd nhffng de tai nghien cffu cap bd quan ly. cdc hdp ddng kinh te kT thuat ve van de thiet ke, che tao. sffa chffa thiet bi thuy dien.
Tuy nhien, ve cdc thiet bi thuy dien, de'n nay, nffdc ta chffa cd cd quan nao dau tff nghien cffu bai ban. ddng mffe, ddng tam ve ITnh vu'c nay. Cdng tac gia cdng ehe tao cung chi dffde thffe hien ddn chie'e mot so' thiet bi thuy dien cd cdng suat nhd. Hau nhff, toan bo cac thiet bi thuy dien cho cdc nha may thdy dien cdng suat tff 1 MW trd len deu phai nhap kha'u. Cac tai heu li thuyet ve tuabin thuy lffe da dffdc phd bien khdng nhieu d Viet Nam bdng Tieng Viet. Cdc tai lieu kT thuat trong ITnh vffc thiet bi thuy dien van tdn tai chu yeu xua't ban cda nffdc ngoai. Cdng ty TNHH Nha nffdc Mgt thanh vien Cd khi Ha Noi la cd sd dffng d vi tri hang dau trong ITnh vffc che tao cac thiet bi thuy dien. Dien hinh la cdc td may thuy dien Idp cho eac Nha mdy Thuy dien:
Phd Ninh, Ke Gd... Mdt so' ddn vi khac cung tham gia che tao cdc thiet bi dien (Cdng ty Cd khi dien thuy ldi, Cdng ty Cd khi 276 (Tdng Cdng ty Cd dien Xay diTng Ndng nghiep va Thuy ldi), Cdng ty Thiet bi dien Ddng Anh...).
Tdm lai, cdng tdc nghien cffu, thiet ke', che tao eae thiet bi thuy dien cda Viet Nam cdn dat dffdc d mffe rat khiem td'n. Va'n de san xua't thiet bi thdy dien mang tinh hang hda, edng nghiep vdi quy md can thiel phiJC vtj cho nhu cau thiTc te trong nffdc van chffa dffde xdc dinh.
Day la van de rat can quan tam, nhdm nhanh ehdng dffa nganh cd khi che tao may thdy khi phdt trien dd kha ndng eung cap thiet bi thdy dien phue vit nhu eau thiTe te trong nffdc va xua't khau.
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Hinhl: Dff bao cdng suat lap dat ciia cac nhii may thuy dien tren the gidi
Tdng san Iffdng khai thac dien ndng dff kie'n tai cdc nha may dien sff diing ngudn ndng Iffdng tai tao (gdm eil thuy ndng), se tang 159'f/ndm trong giai doan tff 2004 den 2030. Sff phdt trien ngudn ndng Iffdng thay the viec ddt nguyen lieu khoang san diie biet hap dan dd'i vdi nhffng nffde dang ed giing phat trien nhieu mat ITnh vffc ndng Iffdng va giam thi phan khai thac dien ndng tff nhicMi lieu khoang san vdi niiie dieh tang dp an toan nang Iffdng rieng eung nhff giam Iffdng thai khi CO,.
Hinh i gidi thieu dff bao cdng sua't liip dat eda cdc nhd may lhu\' dien trC'n the gidi.
Cdng suat lap dat eda tat eii eae nha may thuy dien
trong nam 2006 tang 15.10'MW va dat 760.10'MW. Dir doan trong 15 -^ 20 nam, cdng suat cua nhffng nha mav dl/ dinh dffa vao van hdnh khoang 570.10'MW. Hien tai, thi phan cua cdc nha may dang dffdc xay dffng cd tdng cdng sua't dat 21% (126.10'MW). 80% edng suat ban dau se thudc ve cae nffdc dang phdt trien, trong sd dd dffng dau la cac nffdc Ddng Nam A \aTVIy Latinh.
2. Tai nguyen nang lirgfng niTdfc tai mpt so nirdfc tren the giofi
2.1. Nga
Tdng cdng sua't lap ddt cda cae nha may thuy dien cua Nga dat 46.10'MW. Trong tien trinh 10 ^ 15 nam lai day, kT thuat thuy ndng cua Nga tren thffc tephat trien khdng nhieu, tuy nhien, hien tai dang cd nhffng ke hoach sau rong, to ldn ve va'n de khai thdc tiem ndng thuy lffe sdn cd, dat khoang 1670 TBTC/nam (Hydropower Dams World Atlas 2006). De'n ndm 2011 Nga cd ke hoach xay dffng hang loat cac nha may thuy dien cd Idn vdi tdng cdng sua't chung la 5,5.10' MW (Hinh 2).
Nga cd tiem ndng thuy lffe dang ke, tffdng dffdng vdi tiem nang cua Braxin - la mgt trong nhffng nffdc dffng dau ve phdt trien thuy ndng cda the gidi. Ve van de eung ffng tai nguyen thuy dien, Nga dffng thff hai the gidi sau Trung Qud'c. Thi phan cda cdc nha may thuy dien theo cdng sua't lap mdy cda Nga dat 22% (thi phan thuy dien theo san Iffdng khai thdc dien ndng dat 18%).
Mac du cd tiem ndng ldn ve thuy nang nhffng Nga chi dffng thff 5 ve cdng sua't lap mdy, sau Canada, Trung Quoc, Braxin va My.
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Hinh 2: Dff bao cdng sua't quy dinh cua cac nhii may thuy dien d Nga
Hien nay, d Nga cd hdn 80 nha mdy thuy dien (khdng tinh ede tram thuy dien nhd) dang boat ddng vdi tdng edng sua't Idp mdy dat 46.10'MW' va san Iffdng khai thdc trung binh hang ndm la 180 ti kWh/ndm.
De'n nam 2015, Nga dff dinh dffa vao viin hanh 8,4.10'MW. Trong giai doan nay, mue tieu ed biin la hoan thanh nhffng dff dn dai ban xay difng eae nha may thuy dien Idn. Trong tffdng lai den nam 2020 - 2025, Nga dff dinh dffa vao boat ddng eae nha may thuy dien mdi cdng suat 12,7.10'MW. Vung Xibia. Vien Ddng \ i i [ ^
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2.2. My Latinh
Ndi ehung. day la khu vffc dae trffng bdi td'c do phdt trien nhu eau dien ndng eao va phdt trien kinh te manh me. Theo International Energy Outlook 2006, tde do tang trffdng ehung va cdng suat thuy dien d My Latinh dat 3,4%/ndm. Khu vffc nay cd nhieu nha mdy thuy dien vdi edng suat lap mdy ldn va cd tiem ndng thuy dien dang ke. Dff bao ve thay ddi edng sua't lap may d My La tinh dffdc trinh bay trong HTnh 3.
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Hinh 4: Mffc tang cong sua't lap dat cua cdc nha may thuy dien tinh den nam 2020 d My Latinh 2.3. Trung Quoc
Trung Qudc la nffde dffng dau the gidi ve tde do phat trien nhu eau va san xua't dien nang. Cdc nha mdy nhiet dien hoat ddng bdng than dd, chiem phiin ldn edng sua't lap ddt 80 -i- 90%. Tuy nhien. Trung Qude dang xay di/ng ke hoach phat trien nhanh nganh thuy dien.
hTinh 3: Dif bao cong suat Idp may d My Latinh Tren thi trffdng thidt bi ndng Iffdng cda cae nffdc My Latinh cd sff canh tranh manh me giffa cac doanh nghiep nffdc ngoai vd cdc cdng ty che tao trong nffdc.
Sff phdt trien thi trffdng thiet bi trong nffde bi kim ham bdi mffe dau tff thap. Tde dd tang trffdng san xuat dien nang trong khu vffc dat 3,1%/ndm. Theo sd lieu cda Cdng ty BP, trong ndm 2006, tdng san Iffdng chung cda ngdnh san xua't dien ndng d My Latinh dat 1.248,2 TBTC. cao hdn 5,3% so vdi ndm 2005 (1.1 84,7 TBTC).
Thuy dien d My Latinh giff vai trd ehu dao, ehieiii tdi 55% tdng Iffdng dien nang cda cac qudc gia. O nhieu nffde, ti le cdc nha may thuy dien chiem 60%, d mdt vai nffde khde Id ^O'/r va hai nffde ed ti le nay la 100%. (Hinh 4).
Khu vffc My Latinh ed mot vai nha mdy thuy dien ldn nha't the gidi.
- Nha may thuy dien eda Braxin 1-tai-pu edng sua't 12.000 MW, dffde xay difng d bien gidi \'di Paragoay.
Trffdc khi xay dffng nha mdy thuy dien "Tam Hiep", LTai-pu la nha mdy thuy dien ldn nha't the gidi;
- Nhd mdy thuy dien eda Venexuela - Guri cdng suat 10.300 MW.
Nhieu nffde trong khu vffc My Latinh tieh eifc sff dung tiem nang thuy dien theo hffdng nay, vi dii, Braxin thu dffde 80% dien ndng tff ede nhd may thuy dien. Tdi nguyen thuy dien eda Braxin rat Idn. Trong nffde ed cae nha may thuy dien dang boat ddng vdi tdng edng sua't la 69,6.10'MW vd dif dinh se dffa vdo boat ddng cac nha may cd tdng edng sua't hdn 40.10'MW. Hien tai, nha may thuy dien khdng Id Beldmdnte edng suat IM8.1()'MW dang dffde xdy difng. Ngodi Braxin, d Nam My eung dang xay dffng nhffng nhd mdy thuy dien tai Aehentina, Bolivia, Chile, Cdldmbia. Habana, Peru, VC-nexuela \a ede nffde khae eua My Latinh vdi tdng congsuii'lla 15.67.10'MW.
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Hinh 5: Dif biio cong suat lap may d Trung Quoc Trff Iffdng tiem ndng tdi nguyen thuy dien dat 694.10'MW, trong dd ed the khai thdc hdng kT thuat 540.10'MW. khai thde phije vu kinh le la 402.10'MW.
Hien tai. tdng edng suat liip diit eda eae nha may thuy dien d Trung Qud'c dat 1 15.10'MW (gan 20% tiem ndng thuy dien cda ca nffdc) (Hmh 5).
Thi phan eda eac nha mdy thuy dien trong tdng edng suat liip mdy cda ede nhd mdy dien la 22,6%.
Trong so eac nha may thuy dien mdi phan ldn se la cdc nha mdy cdng suat ldn dung tuabin tam true loai Francis, edt dp eao va eae td mdy dien tieh ndng ed ldn.
Vdi nhffng edt dp thap, dien tieh ngiip nhd, liet kiem ehi phi eho di chuyen dan eff thi nhffng td may Cdp-xun thffdng chiem ffu the hdn.
Nhffng so lieu thdng ke thffdng mai mdi day dd khdng dinh y kien eho rang Trung Qude dang ldng xual khau thiet bi ndng Iffdng. Trong giai doan 2001 - 2005 day la mgt trong nhffng khu s'lfe kinh le phdt trien nhanh nhat. Dieu na\ mdt phan dffde giai thich nhif lioiit ddng eda ede edng ty qude te hien dang phai tnen eae ed sdr-^^
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N G H I E N CI^U - T R A O D O I
san xua't d Trung Qude tren dien rdng nhdm san xuat nhffng san pha'm cung ffng eho thi trffdng ndi dia Trung Qud'c va cac thi trffdng ben ngoai. O mffc do dang ke. si/
tdng trffdng nay ddng thdi cung dien ra d cac nha may dien vdi ede thiet bi ndng Iffdng dffdc san xua't tai Trung Qud'c. Cdc hang san xua't ndi dia - Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Elictric, Harbin Power Equipment va BHEL cd kha nang tao dieu kien cho cdc khach hang tiep can vdi cdng nghe dot than td'i tan nha't, phu hdp vdi muc dich sff dung thffdng mai theo gid tha'p hdn so vdi cac hang GE, Siemens hay Alstom.
Trffdc bet, cdc doanh nghiep qud'c doanh hay cac cdng ty khac cda Trung Qud'c tien hanh dau tff vdn, hien dai hod cdc cd sd san xua't va cd mgt phan trd cap phi va cdc hinh thffc dng hd khac tff phia ehinh phu, dac biet la tff phia chinh quyen dia phffdng. Cdc cdng ty ldn nffde ngoai cung dau tff vd'n vao nganh san xuat dia phffdng.
O Trung Qud'c da bat dau viec chuyen giao tich cffc cdng nghe thdng qua viec dau tff nffdc ngoai trffc tiep, dd'i tdc cdng nghe va md phdng chuyen giao cdng nghe.
Cung vdi thdi gian, cac cd sd san xua't cda Trung Qud'c cang ldn manh va ngay cang dffdc nang eao ve chat Iffdng. Vd'n dau tff tff ban ddi dao, kha ndng canh tranh va thieu sff thd'ng ke thffc te'cac chi phi san xua't (d day mud'n ndi de'n nganh cdng nghiep dffdc trd cap) da lam giam gid thanh san pham mae du gid thanh nguyen lieu vd vat lieu, gid dien deu ddng thdi tang gid. Ap life ve gid ca se tang do mffc tdng khdi Iffdng san pham ban ra d cdc khu vtjfc it phat trien hdn cda Trung Qudc. Mffc tdng nay se tao nen nhu cau ve cae hang hod gid re hdn.
Cdc cdng ty Trung Qud'c tiep tiie nang cao trinh do kT thuat cda minh cung vdi sff gidp dd eda cac cdng trinh nghien cffu khoa hgc va nghien cffu thi nghiem thiet ke, chuyen giao edng nghe va md phdng eae phat minh mdi "vay mffdn" eda nffdc ngoai. Cdng sua't lap may dffdc md rdng tai thi trffdng ndi dia da bao hda Idm tdng khdi Iffdng xua't khau. Ben canh dd, ffu the phii do sff chenh lech ldn giffa gid thanh san pham va gid bdn ma ede cdng ty Trung Qud'c thu dffdc tff viec xuat khau san pham cua minh cung thue day khdi Iffdng xua't khau tang len. Theo mffc do tdng kha ndng canh tranh d cdc thi trffdng nffde ngoai (vi dia nhff d Ddng Nam A), tien trinh nay can phai dffdc tiep tuc bang cdch tham nhap sau hdn vao cdc thi trffdng tieu thu nffdc ngoai rdng ldn hdn.
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2.4. An Do
Dff dodn rdng nhdm ede nffdc Chau A - dien hinh la Trung Qud'c va An Do, khdng gia nhap Td chffe Hdp tdc va Phat trien Kinh te (OECD), se la nhffng nffdc cd tdc do tang san Iffdng dien nang nhanh nha't the gidi, dat trung binh 4,2%/nam tff nam 2004 de'n het nam 2030.
O cac qud'c gia Chau A khdng thudc OECD dff dodn se dep tuc mffc tang trffdng kinh te dn dinh va mffc tang tffdng ffng ve nhu cau dien ndng de chieu sang, dd'i va lam mat, dung cho cac thiet bi dien sinh boat va cdc thiet bi dien khac ma viec su" dung chung gan lien vdi mffc tang mffc sd'ng.
Mffc tang nhu cau ve dien ndng dffdc dif dodn la ldn nhat the' gidi trong khoang thdi gian khao sat tff nam 2004 de'n het nam 2030 thudc ve Trung Qud'c va An Do. Trung Qudc la qudc gia dffng dau the gidi ve nhu cau tieu thia than da. An Do dffng thff ba sau My. Trong nam 2004, tdng khdi Iffdng tieu thu than da d An Do va Trung Qud'c bdng vdi tdng khdi Iffdng tieu thia than da cua ta't ca cac qud'c gia nam trong OECD. Den nam 2030, tdng khdi Iffdng than dd tieu thu cda hai qud'c gia nay, theo dff doan se vffdt qua tdng khdi Iffdng than da lieu thu eda OECD hdn 85%.
Trong nhffng nam gan day, d An Do xay ra tinh trang thieu hut djen ndng va de khac phtac tinh trang nay, Chinh phd An Do da soan thao ke hoach qudc gia ve dien khi hod (National Electricity Plan) dffde dff tinh cho den ndm 2017. Theo ke hoach dffa ra, den nam 2012, dff dinh se dffa vao van hanh 100.10'MW cdng sua't them (hien tai la 123.10^ MW), chiem 85% tdng cdng sua't mdi dffdc dff dodn, trong dd, cac nha mdy thuy dien dat 65.10'MW, tinh ca cdc nha may thuy dien cd tdng edng sua't 10.10'MW dang dffdc thi cdng. Trong tffdng lai xa. An Do dff dinh tdng cdng sua't lap may len 5% mdi ndm, '4 tdng dien ndng dffdc san xua't ra la thuipc ve cdc nha mdy thuy dien (Hinh 7).
lO^MW
- -
>
Hinh 6; Mifc tiing tdng cdng suiit lap may va cdng suilt may thuy dien d Trung Qudc
Hinh 7: Dff bao cong sua't liip may d An Dp Theo danh gia cua cac chuyen gia, tiem nang thuy dien cda An Do dat tff 9 0 ^ 150.10'MW.
Hien tai, tdng edng suat liip mav d An Do dat 123,9.10'MW, truong d^d, 32.10'MW'la eda eac nha mdy thuy dien. Thi phiin cda ede nha may thuy dien trong tdng edng suat liip may eua eae nhd mdy dien la
25,94%. ^
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Hinh 8: Mffc tang cong sua't lap may ctia cac nha may thuy dien cl An Do den nam 2020
Chu y: Bieu dd tffdng ffng vdi cac ke hoach qud'c gia ve phdt trien thuy dien da chi rd sff sut giam tdng Iffdng khai thdc va tffdng ffng la nhu cau trong giai doan 2011 - 2015. Day se la gi^ai doan canh tranh khd'c liet nha't trong 10 ndm tdi d An Do tren thi trffdng thiet bi thuy dien (Hinh 8).
2.5. Dong Nam A
Theo "Trien vgng ndng Iffdng the gidi" (World Energy Outlook) nam 2005 eda OECD. trong 25 ndm tdi nganh ndng Iffdng the gidi se phdt trien ben vffng trong khudn khd ta't cii ede loai hinh mdy phat. Nhu eau cua the gidi ve dien ndng se tdng manh trong giai doan 2005 - 2035. Mffe tang nhu eau chu yeu dffde hinh thanh d eac nffde dang phat trien vd ede nffde Ddng Nam A se eung ffng phan dang ke nhu eiiu nay (Hinh 9).
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Hinh 9: Dff bao cong sua't Idp may d Ddng Nam A Ke tff ndm 2000 den nay. eae nffde Ddng Nam A.
sau euge khdng hoang kinh te da dat mffe tdng trffdng kinh te ben vffng. Ddng Nam A la mdt trong nhffng khu vffc dang phdt trien kinh te nhanh nha't the gidi.
Vdi mue tieu giff vffng tde do phdt trien kinh te cao.
ehinh phd ede nffde trong khu vffc dang thife hien nhffng chffdng trinh dau tff quy md rgng nham phdt trien ITnh vife ndng Iffdng. Chinh phd ede nffde mong mudn xay dffng dffde bau khdng khi dau tff thuan ldi. O eae nffde nay. tai Viet Nam va An Di). dang dien ra qud trinh cai each trong linh vife ndng Iffdng tren quy md rdng.
xay dffng thi trffdng dien nang. Vdi mue tieu thu hut tai chinh eho edng trinh \a> dffng ede nhd mdy dien mdi, ehinh plui da lien hdnh Iff nhan hod ede doanh nghiep ndng Iffdng qudc doanh va ddc biet ehu y den ede dif dn
BOO va BOT.
Tuy dat dffdc tdc do tdng trffdng kinh tc vffng manh, dn dinh va keo theo dd la sff phdt trien eda ITnh vffc ndng Iffdng. trong khu vffc van tdn tai sff edeh biet ldn giffa cdc qudc gia trong vung ve mffc do phdt trien vd cac quy dinh ve ehien Iffde cua cac nffdc ve phdt trien nang Iffdng. Lao va Campuchia la nhffng nffdc ed thu nhap binh quan cho ngffdi dan thap va kinh te phdt trien yeu kem. Mac du cd dieu kien dia li thuan ldi nhffng tinh trang kinh te yeu kem va rdi ro dau tff eao da kim ham sff phdt trien cda ngdnh ndng Iffdng d ede nffde neu tren.
Theo sd lieu cda ede cdng trinh nghien cffu, viec sff diang nang Iffdng tff cdc ngudn tdi tao, trong dd ed thuy ndng, den ndm 2030 tren toan the gidi se tang 60%.
Hdn mdt nffa mffe tdng nay thude ve Chau A va ti le dang ke la d Ddng Nam A. Mdi quan tam den sff phdt trien thuy nang d cac nffdc trong khu vffc do dieu kien kinh te, dia li va cac nguyen nhan khde Id khdng gidng nhau. Trong 15 ndm tdi day, nganh thuy dien se phdt trien dn dinh nhat d Lao va Viet Nam. Theo ede ke hoach qudc gia ve phat trien nganh ndng Iffdng, Viet Nam va Lao dff dinh khai thdc tiem ndng thuy dien san cd mdt edeh loan dien tdi ndm 2020. Trien vgng phdt trien thuy dien eda Inddnexia, nffde ed lien de dia li ldn nhat. se dat dffde sau ndm 2020. Trong khoang thdi gian nay, sff phat trien thuy dien d Thdi Lan, Campuchia va Malaysia se d tde dd han ehe.
Nhin ehung, Ddng Nam A Id mdt trong nhffng khu vffe phat trien dn dinh nhat eua the gidi vd cd ngudn tai nguyen thuy dien to ldn, tao nen nhffng trien vgng dang ke eho sff phdt trien ITnh vife thuy dien.
Lao, Inddnexia la nhffng nffde dffde dff dodn se phdt trien manh me ve dien ndng trong tffdng lai gan. O ede qude gia nay den ndm 2020, trong pham vi cdng suat rieng eda td mdy tff 15 H- 150 MW, tdng edng sua't eda nha mdy thuy dien dif kien dffa vao hoat ddng se dat tffdng ffng la 6.169 MW vd 3.900 MW.
O Nepan, miie du ed tiem nang thuy dien to ldn va dinh hffdng eua ehinh phd ve phdt trien thuy dien, tde do xay difng eae edng trinh se khdng ldn nhff d Viet Nam, Lao \d Inddnexia do nhffng nguyen nhdn kinh te xd hdi. Trong pham vi cdng suat rieng tff 15 -^ 150 MW tdng sd Iffdng edng sua't cda nha mdy thuy dien dff kien dffa vao boat ddng se dat 1.500 MW de'n ndm 2020.
Malaysia ed tiem ndng thuy dien ddng ke. Tuy nhien. theo chffdng trinh qude gia ve phdt trien ndng Iffdng, da't nffdc nay cd dinh hffdng xay dffng cdc nha mdy thuy dien ldn. Cdng trinh nha may cdng sua't tff 15 H- 150 MW se han ehe mdt each td'i da.
Tdng cdc edng trinh nhd mdy d Thdi Lan vd Campuchia ddng thdi eung khdng ddng ke do dinh hffdng tap trung vao ndng Iffdng than va khi eung nhff do ede nguyen nhan dae thu eda nen kinh te.
Tdm lai, de'n ndm 2025, the gidi se ed mffe tdng trffdng dn dinh trong ITnh vffe thuy dien. Tdng khdi Iffdng ddt mua se vffdt qua 500.10' MW ddi vdi tat ed ede loai tuabin (HTnh 10).
Theo sd lieu ed dffde tff ndm 2000 - 2006. long ede hdp ddng ve tuabin loai Francis va Kaplan gan 150 MW dat 26,7% trong bieu thffe edng suat. Neu tinh ea he s d C ^
TAP CHi C d KHi VIET NAM * S' I i i h . i n y i i . l n i J i i i i ' i
NGHIEN CU^U - TRAO D d i
nay thi den ndm 2025 tdng dff tinh ddt mua tuabin thuy lffe loai Kaplan va Francis va may phat dien gan 150 MW se dat eon .so 133.10'MW.
FTinh 10: Tong thi trifdng thiet bi thuy lffe trong giai doan den nam 2025 theo tffng khu vifc cua the gidi 1, Chau Phi; 2, Chau A; 3, SNG - Cong ddng cac quoc gia doc lap; 4, Can Dong; 5, Bac My; 6, Chau IJc va Chau
Dai DUdng; 7, My Latinh; 8, Chau Au.
Theo tinh todn hang ndm thi ddn ddt hang mdi ndm trong giai doan den ndm 2025 la 7.10'MW.
Nhffng bien phdp dffdc dp dijng da nang cao md'i quan tam cua cdc nha dau tff nffde ngoai dd'i vdi ITnh vffc nang Iffdng d mffe do dang ke. Thdng 6/2005, Bd Cdng nghiep (nay la Bd Cdng thffdng) tuyen bd san sang chuyen giao 15 di/ an ndng Iffdng cd tdng edng sua't la 11,7.10'MW cho cae nha dau tff trong nffde va nffdc ngoai theo dieu kien IPP va BOT. Trong 2 den 3 ndm tdi, Viet Nam se chffng kien mffc tdng trffdng dang ke cda boat ddng dau tff vdo ITnh vifc ndng Iffdng, trong dd ed ede nha dau tff nffde ngoai se thifc hien phan ldn ede dif an. Tap dodn Dien lffe Viet Nam (EVN) lue dd se khdng edn la ddn vi ehinh diit hang eae thiet bi ndng Iffdng nffa. Vai trd eda ddn vi ddt hang ehinh se thude ve eac cdng ty ngi dia khdng phu thudc vao cdc cdng ty nffde ngoai - nhffng chd nhan eda eae dff dn IPP. Tff ndm 2007, viee hinh thdnh thi trffdng dien ndng theo tffng giai doan da dffdc biit dau.
Tiem ndng thuy dien ve mat li thuyet cda ta't ca cac sdng sudi va hd chffa nffde eda Viet Nam cd the dat 35.10' -I- 40.10' MW. Tiem ndng thffc te kmh te la 20.10'-^ 25.10' MW. Tai nguyen nffde chd yeu eda Viet Nam la he thd'ng sdng Hdng d mien Bac bao gdm ca sdng Da, sdng Ld, sdng Gam, sdng Chay va nhanh sdng Mekong d mien Nam (mdt trong nhffng con sdng ldn nhat the gidi). O mien Trung, tai nguyen nffde chd yeu la sdng Ma va sdng Ca (phiin phia Bdc), .sdng Vu Ngffa - Thu Bon, sdng Sexan, sdng Xerepd'k xa sdng Ba (phan mien Trung) va sdng Dong Nai (mien Nam).
Trong tdng cdng sua't phdt dien cua Viet Nam, cdc nha may thuy dien chiem thi phan ldn nha't (42%). Tdi ndm 2020, dif kien se dffa vao boat dgng 160 nhd may thuy dien ed ldn. lrung binh va nhd. Tong edng sua't cda ede nha mdy thuy dien mdi dat hdn 12.10'MW.
3. Tiem nang thuy nang cua Viet Nam
Nffde ta cd mdt ngudn thuy ndng rat phong phu va phan bd tffdng ddi deu tren cdc vung lanh thd ea nffde.
den nay. da ed sff ddnh gid tiem ndng ndng Iffdng eda
cdc con sdng theo 3 mffc do: li thuyet. kT thuat va kinh te.
- TrCf nang li thuyet
Trff nang li thuyet dffdc hieu la ngudn ndng lu'dng nem tang cda ddng nffdc chay tff thffdng ngudn (dffdc tinh trong lanh thd Viet Nam) de'n cffa sdng. Ngudn ndng Iffdng nay dffdc danh gia theo dien nang trung binh nhieu ndm (kWh/nam) va phu thuge vao ket qua tinh loan thuy nang theo mffc do chi bet cda cdc phffdng an quy hoach tdng the. Trong sd dd IV, tren cd sd tinh toan thuy nang eho tren 2.200 con sdng ldn nhd cd chieu dai tff 10 km trd len va dffdc chia thanh 11 Iffu vffc sdng chinh tren toan qudc, trff nang nay da dffdc phan tich va danh gia vao khoang 250 -;- 260 ti kWh/nam; trong dd.
trff nang IT thuyet cua eac he thd'ng sdng Mien Bdc la 120 ti kW, mien Nam la 140 ti kWh.
- Tri? nang ki thuat
Trff ndng kT thuat la ngudn dien ndng ma vdi trinh do kl thuat chung hien nay cho phep khai thdc dffdc.
Trong tdng trff nang li thuyet cda 11 he thdng sdng ngoi Viet Nam dffdc danh gia d tren, tiem ndng kl thuat dffdc danh gid khoang 120 ti kWh tffdng ffng vdi cdng sua't khoang 30.10'MW.
- Tri? nang kinh te'
Trff ndng kinh te la ngudn ndng Iffdng thuy dien cd kha nang khai thac mdt each chac chan va kinh te, tren cd sd trinh do va kha ndng thiet ke', xay difng va thi cdng hien cd. Tren thffc te, de sff dung ngudn thuy ndng vdo phdt trien he thdng dien trong thdi gian 15 den 25 ndm tdi, thi trff ndng kinh te cda thdy dien ddng vai trd rat quan trgng va quyet dinh. Cac cd sd cd the di sau danh gia tiem nang nay nhff sau:
Theo bao cao quy hoach va phat trien dien Iffc (1996 - 2005) cd xet de'n trien vgng nhffng nam 2015 tren cd sd dffa vao cdc he thd'ng sdng thuge 3 mien cda dat nffde, da tien hanh xdc dinh dffdc trff nang kinh te tren 11 he thdng sdng ngdi Viet Nam. Thdng ke cac phffdng dn nghien cffu, khai thac tren 100 cdng trinh thuy dien trung binh va Idn da, dang va di/ kien se xay dffng tren cae Iffu vifc da xac dinh dffdc tdng cdng sua't lap may eda ehung la
13.931 MW va dien Iffdng hang ndm la 68,917 ti kWh.
Bao cao quy hoach phdt trien dien Iffc qud'c gia giai doan 2006 - 2015 cd xet de'n trien vgng 2005 da di sau phan tich ngudn cda 10 he thd'ng sdng chinh va cdc tram thdy dien vffa va nhd da va dang dinh xay dffng cho tha'y trff nang kl thuat thuy dien Viet Nam khoang 123 ty kWh tffdng dffdng cdng sua't lap ddt la 31.10'MW.
Tuy nhien, neu xem xet cdc yeu td kinh te-xa hdi va tac ddng mdi trffdng thi tiem ndng kinh te - kT thuat ciia 10 Iffu vffc sdng chinb cd cdng sua't liip mdy la 17.55.10' MW tffdng ffng vdi dien ndng 70,77 ti kWh. neu xet den cac tram thuy dien vffa va nhd tren loan lanh thd Viet Nam thi tdng cdng sua't liip mdy dat tdi 20,56.10'MW va tffdng ffng vdi dien ndng la 83,42 ti kWh.
Viec sff dung trff ndng kinh te eda thuy dien. tham gia vao he thd'ng dien, se phu thudc chd yeu vao viec canh tranh giffa thuy dien vdi cac ngudn dien khae, chu yeu la thdng qua gid thanh dau tff cdng trinh, ddng thdi cd tinh den kha nang eung cap nang Iffdng va phd dd thi phu tai. Tuy nhien, qua phan tieh sd bd ve trff nang mdt sd cdquan tham gia chffdng trinh ndng Iffdng 2001 - 2020 da nhan xet rang: trong tffdng lai 15 -i- 2 0 C ^
TAP CHi C d KHi VIET NAM "^ " I n Huini: n.lm JOIW
NGHIEN ciiu - TRAO D O I nam tdi. trff nang kinh te eda thuy dien da quy hoach
cung ehi ed the khai thac td'i da khdng qud 40 -H 45 ti kWh/ndm (da sd thudc cac cdng trinh sieu cap I. va mdt it edng trinh cap II). Dieu nay eho thay mdc dd tiem nang thdy ndng eua chdng ta phong phd nhffng
viec khai thdc edn phia thude vao nhieu yeu td va thife te trff ndng kinh te thuy ndng dang can kiet tdi gidi han. nen kinh te nffdc ta se phai dffa vao cac ngudn ndng Iffdng khac.
Tai thi trffdng Viet Nam, tinh hinh tana gia thiet bi
1
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n
Nftm difa yAo si} d^ng
(2)
Tong cong sua't c^c nh^ m^y dien nSm 2005
Cong suat cac nhd m^y dien bat dau van hanh
Nam 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
£2006 - 2010 NSm 201 1
2012 2013 2014 2015
£2011 - 2015 Nam 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020 I20I6 - 2020 Nam 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025 12021 • 2025 12006-2025
Thay di^n ndng li/^rng tai tao
(MW)
( 3 1
4.120
401 746 1.551 1.239 2 190 6.136 1,901 2,754 1,759 1,752 1,022 9.188 767 625 0 1.582 1.300 4.274 1.100 1.450 850 1.450 1.150 6.200 2S.798
Nhift difn va difn liat nliSn
(MW)
( 4 i
7.328
150 1.150 1.720 2.154 3.970 9.144 4.100 4,400 6,550 9,225 9900 34.175 9.300 11,400 11.400 11,500 11.500 55.100 14,20(1 15.000 17,000 17.000 17.000 80.200 178.619
Dif n nhSp kbiu tU Trung Qutfc
(MW)
1,^1
310 200
510
700 700 700 2.100
2.610
TS'ng cdng sntft (MW)
l 6 l
11.448
861 2.096 3.271 3.393 6.160 15.781 6,001 7,154 8,309 10.977 10,922 43.363 10.067 12.025 12.150 13.782 14.250 62.274 15,500 16.450 17.850 18.450 18.150 86.400 207.818
1
Bang 3: Quy hoach \(in hanh nhii may thuy ilien (.iia Viet Nam giai doiin 2f)06 - 2025 (theo .Sd dd quy hoach dien VI)
TAP CHi Cd KHi VIET NAM • s,. I n ni.iii.i.; " n.lm _' '
N G H I E N ciiu - T R A O D O !
thuy dien cda Trung Qudc da va dang trd thanh van de bffe xde (mac dd chat Iffdng khdng tdng). Dieu do cang yeu cau chinb sdch cda nha hoach dinh chie'n \Mc phat trien ngdnh ed khi ndi chung va cd khi che tao thiet bi thdy dien ndi rieng cua Viet Nam phai chu y quan tam.
Phan tich thi phan cua tuabin cac loai banh cdng tdc khac nhau trong tdng thi trffdng toan cau giai doan 2000 - 2006 cung cho tha'y tdng cdng sua't phat dien cae hdp ddng dffde ki ket bdi cac ddi thd canh tranh dat 141.10' MW trong giai doan 2000 - 2006. So Iffdng tuabin thuy Iffc/mdy phat dien theo cdc hdp ddng dffdc ky ke't la 3.488 td may. Ket qua phan tich dffdc tnnh bay d Hinh 11. Tuabin Francis chiem phan ldn yeu cau tren thi trffdng thiet bi thuy Iffc.
Hinh 11. Thi phan tuabin thuy lffe cac loai theo cac hdp dong ky ket trong giai doan 2000 - 2006 (MW)
1, Tuabin cot nUdc thiip Capsun; 2. Tuabin tam true;
3, Tuabin hu'dng true (Kaplan); 4, Tuabin gao;
5, Tuabin tich nang (bdm - tuabin); 6. Cac loai tuabin khac Phan tieh thi trffdng loan ciiu ve tuabin thuy Iffc loai Francis va Kaplan theo dffdng kinh bdnh cdng tdc trong giai doan 2000 - 2006 dffde gidi thieu tren Hinh II.
4. Ket luan
The gidi cd tiem ndng sff diang ndng IffcJng nffdc de phdt dien phuc via phdt trien kinh te va cac muc dich khae eda eac qud'c gia. Viet Nam eung cd he thd'ng sdng
sudi day dac vdi tiem ndng thuy dien khd ldn vdi tdng cdng sua't lap may thffc te dat tdi 30.I0'MW, chiem ti trgng khdng nhd trong tdng cdng sua't cac ngudn dien qudc gia.
De'n nay, Viet Nam da tff nghien cffu, khao sat, thiet ke va xay dffng cac cdng trinh thuy dien tff quy md nhd de'n Idn tdi hang trieu kildoat vdi cha't Iffdng tdt. Da cd nhieu ddn vi dau Uf xay dffng cac dff an ve thuy dien cd ldn d nffdc ngoai. Tuy nhien, cac thiet bi lap cho cac nha may thuy dien, ndi chung, deu phai nhap kha'u tff nffdc ngoai.
Can nhanh chdng xay dffng ke hoach ngan han.
trung ban va dai ban cac cd sd nghien cffu, thiet ke va che tao eac thiet bi thuy dien phuc vu viec lap ddt cho cae tram thuy dien mdi eung nhff cung ca'p cac phia tung thay the' sd'a chffa cho eac thiet bi cu dang boat dgng tren pham vi ca nffdc. Nhu cau ve thiet bi cho cdc nha may thuy dien vdi quy md cdng sua't khac nhau la rat ldn va ca'p bach vdi gia tri kinh phi tdi hang tram trieu ddla My mdi nam. D
Tai tieu tham khao:
[ I ] Bo mon thiet bi thtly nang (2004). Gido trinh tuabin thuy It/c. NXB Xay duYig. Hii Npi.
12] PGS.TS Nguyen Thi Xuan Thu, PGS.TS V6 Sy Huynh ( ), Tuabin thuy lire. NXB. Khoa hpc ky thuat.
Ha Npi. 2005.
| 3 | TS Vu HtTu Hai (2007), Nang cap hieu qua khai thac va sur dung nguon thiiy nang trong he thong nang lu'dng Viet Nam. De tai nghien cull khoa hpc B2005 -34-77- TD, Tru'dng Dai hpc Xay difng Hii Npi.
|4] Dir an To hdp che tao thiet bi nang lu'png ctia lien doanh Tong cong ty Co dien - xay dirng nong nghiep va thuy lpi (Viet Nam) - Tap doan May nang liTpng (Nga), Ha Npi. 2007,
|5| CD.<E.ryp6MH • riiflpo3neKTpMMecKMecTaHL(Mn"- BHeprwn- MocK8a,1972,
|6| Kosanee, H, H 'TMflpoTypenHa" - M ocKsa- 1971.
|7| JI, M, MuxaiinoB "Manaa rHflposHepreiHKd' - 3HeproaTOMn3flaui M,I989,
|8| M. H. CMMPHOB ••rMflpaBnnMecKMeTyp6nHbi M Hacocbi"- M. "Bbicmafl ujKona".l969.
[9] H. M, lllanoe "Typ6nHbie o6opyflOBaHMe
rMapocTaHL(nn" - MocKsa - /leHMHrpafl- 3Heprnal961.
MJS:^} JV^
Dia chi: 236 Hai Phong, quan Thanh Khe, thanh pho Da N i n g * Di^n thoai: (0511)2223166 " Fax: (0511) 3826166 Giam doc xi n g h i e p : Ky su NGO NGQC TUAN
Nhiem vu chinh:
Hoan cai, nang cap, suTa chffa Idn, sffa chffa nhd tat ca cac loai toa xe chay tren cac tuyen dffdng sat Viet Nam
Kham xet, sffa chffa dam bao an toai^M^H^H^HHH^tiku qua lai khu doan tff ga Dong Hdi den ga D i e u - S ^ a H H I ^ I ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ '
Gia cong cac mat hang cd khi
TAP CHi Cd KHi VIET NAM • 111 rh.uTj n:ltll 2009
