VAN DE HOM NAY
( So 4(69)-2009 )
K€NH DifU Tl/ N^IO Hlf U QUR
Trong khung hoong kinh te hien noy
Ths. Duvng Thj Thuy Nga Ths. Du'cng Thanh Hoa
M^\du hipu khdng hodng kinh titodn cdu kh&i ddu tir My vdo ndm 2007 trong nhieu linh virc m Mchd chot nhu tdi chinh, bdo hiim, chirng khodn. Nguyen nhdn sdu xa la tirsu khiing hodng - m - ^ ^ tin dung nhd & thur cdp tgi nin kinh ti l&n nhdt the gi&i ndy. Do su sut gidm nghiem trgng
cda gid nhd ddt - tdi sdn ddm bdo cho nhieu khodn vay mua nhd- chat luang cda cdc churng khodn ddm bdo bdng tdi sdn th i ehdp vd gidy na ddm bdo bdng tdi sdn gidm sdt mpt nghiem trgng. Hp qud Id khiing hodng tgi Hoa Ky nhanh chdng lan ra thdnh cupe khiing hodng tdi chinh todn cau khi cd td chirc tdi chinh khong Id vd lau d&i Id Lehman Brothers cdng sup do. Day dugrc cho Id cupc suy thodi nghiem trgng nhat cua My tu sau chien tranh the gi&i thu hai. n
Nghiem trgng hon Id diu hieu mat niem tin nghiem trgng eua ngudi gOri tien vdo cdc to chirc tin dyng, khi nhieu td chOre tin dyng Idn phd sdn hodc phdi chimg kiln gid cd phieu cua hg tugt dde. Do do, nhilu ngudi xep hdng rut tiln giri mgt cdch 6 at ldm cho khd khdn ciia cdc to chirc tin dyng cdng gia tdng.
Cdc lo ngai ve tinh hinh kinh te suy thodi cung Id mgt trong nhung nguyen nhan ldm cho chi sd chimg khodn tai hiu hit cdc thi trudng chimg khodn chfnh gidm manh. Nhilu gidi phap manh da dugc Chinh phu cdc nudc dua ra trong no lyc hdi phyc nin kinh tl. Ben canh cdc chuong trinh ciiru trg trye tilp, hg cung thyc hi?n ha lai suit vd ndi ldng tiln t? dl kfch thfch diu tu, sdn xuit vd tieu diing. Tuy nhien, cae nha dau tu dudng nhu lo ngai vl sy bao tdn von hon Id diu tu md rgng trong suy thodi. Trong xu hudng toah ciu hda, kinh tl Viet Nam cung khdng tranh khdi nhirng tac ddng ciia "vdng xoay"
ndy. Vay cugc khiing hodng dnh hudng nhu the ndo den nen kinh te nudc ta vd nhd dau tu nen lya chgn cdch thiirc ndo cho phii hgp trong thdi ky ndy?
Anh hu&ng den xu hu&ng ddu tu trong nu&c
Hoa Ky la mgt trong nhiing thj trudng xuit khau quan trgng cua nhieu nudc, do vay khi kinh te suy thodi, xudt khiu cua nhilu nudc bj thiet hai, dac biet la nhung nudc theo hudng xuit khau d Ddng Nam A trong dd cd Viet Nam. Ngodi ra, tam ly nhd ddu tu vd ngudi tieu dimg Viet Nam cung bj dnh hudng khi ben canh My, vd nhilu nin kinh tl Idn cua thi gidi nhu Anh, Chau Au, Nhdt Bdn v.v.. cd dau hieu budc vdo cugc suy thodi sdu.
Phin Idn cdc nhd diu tu tdi chfnh Viet Nam cd xu hudng dya vdo dien biln thj trudng thi gidi dde biet Id cdc quoc gia cd nin kinh tl phdt triln dl dua ra cdc quyet djnh. Trudc sy gidm dilm lien tyc ciia cdc chi sd chimg
khodn quan trgng nhu S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite (MJ*), FTSE 100 (Anh), CAC 40 (Phdp), Nikkei 225 (Nhdt), gidi ddu tu nudc ta mua bdn de ddt hon. Mac dii cdc co quan Chinh phu da cd nhiing dgng thai khing djnh rdng xudt khdu vd diu tu nudc ngodi cua Viet Nam cd the bj dnh hudng, con h? thong ngan hdng ciia nudc ta van vung vang, tuong ty nhu chi s6 chimg khoan tai cdc nudrc Chdu A khdc, chi so VN- Index vdn tiep tyc xu hudng gidm sdu. Gidi diu tu chuyin sang tim kilm co hgi da dang danh muc diu tu cua minh hon.
Cdc kenh ddu tu trong khung hodng
Chiing khodn Id mao hiem?:
day cung Id mgt kenh bj tdc dgng sdrm nhit tir cugc khiing hoang tdi chinh todn ciu do tam ly nha dau tu trong nuac vd sy nit von do khd khdn cua cdc nha dau tu
"ngoai". Tuy nhien, day cung la mgt kenh diu tu tilm ndng mang lai Igi nhuan cao vi gid hien nay
^ang d mirc khd re vd phii hgp
T.9P chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh ke'todn
( So 4(69). 2009 ' )
VAN DE HOM NAY
vdi dau tu djnh hudng dai han.
Cd the lua chgn trong sd nhung loai cd phieu vdi he so P/E (Price /Earning) rat thip hien nay va thj gia cd phieu chi bing 30% - 40%
so vdi gia trj sd sach de dua vao danh muc dau tu vi du nhu: co phieu ciia cdng ty cd phan sira Vinamilk (ma sd VNM) vdi chi sd P/E la 11 (thap hon mirc dugc tham khao la 15 vdi thi trudng the gidi va 30 vdi Viet Nam).
Ben canh dd, cac dy bao kha quan ve thj trudng the gidi va cac ddng thai tich cue ciia Chinh phii, cho thay day van la kenh dau tu cd the lya chgn. Cu the nhu: theo thdng tu 27 ciia Bd Tai chfnh, nha dau tu dugc gian thue thu nhap ca nhan len thu nhap tir chuyen nhugng chirng khoan din hit thang 5/ 2009. Them vao dd, cac khoan tien Idn cung dugc Chinh phii cac nudc thdng qua de ciru trg kinh te, va khang djnh ciia chii tjch Quy dy tru- lien bang My, dng Ben Bernanke la khiing hoang cd the ket thiic vao cudi ndm nay va den dau nam 2010 kinh tl thi gidi se bat dau hdi phuc. Nhu vay, nha dau tu Viet Nam cd quyen lac quan ve kha nang phyc hdi ciia thj trudng chirng khoan cudi nam 2009.
Dieu quan trgng la nha dau tu nen tien hanh danh gia dugc cac cd phieu ciia doanh nghiep cd kha nang try virng dugc trong con khiing hoang, cd dinh hudng phat triln san xuat, kinh doanh rd rang, doanh thu tang trudng dn djnh dk dua vao danh muc dau tu ciia minh.
Bit ddng san can vdn Idn:
Cung nhu chirng khoan. dau tu vao bat dgng san Idn tiem an kha nang mang lai sieu Igi nhuan trong dai han vi mac dii khdng cao nhu gia trong thdi ky hung thjnh cudi 2007, gia nha dat hien nay van cao hon tir 50%-80% so vdi dau nam 2007 va tat nhien vdi mirc lam phat nam 2008 ude tfnh la tren 20%. Tuy nhien, bat ddng san phai trudng vdn: bdi san pham ciia thj trudng nay kem thanh khoan, va cdn can mdt hanh lang phap ly de cac giao dich bat ddng san minh bach hon. Vdi sd vdn chua du Idn, de kinh doanh thi day dudng nhu chua phai la hang muc dau tu ly tudng hien nay. Cd the thay ngay cang nhieu chung cu va cac du an nha d mdi da va dang dugc trien khai xay dyng, trong khi dd nhieu cdng trinh da hoan thanh nhung van chua ban het dii gia mdt sd noi da giam den 50%.
Vdng vd ngoai te
Hien nay, gia vang giao dich ngay thang 4/2009 giam
djch chii yeu la Euro va Dd la My). Do vay, dau tu vao loai hinh nay khdng nhieu riii ro nhung khd thu Igi nhuan Idn.
Them vao dd, dau tu vao vang va ngoai te ddi hdi cd kien thirc chuyen mdn va su nhanh nhay vdi thdng tin khdng chi trong ITnh vuc kinh te ma ca chfnh trj - xahdi.
Gui tiet kiem an toan nhung lai thap: Lai suat co ban do Ngan hang Nha nudc Viet Nam cdng bd da giam kha manh trong thdi gian vua qua nham muc tieu khdi phuc kinh te, duy tri san xuat, kfch cau tieu dimg va tao viec lam. Trong khi lai suat co ban ciia nhieu nudc da giam xudng cdn 0,l%-0,25% , he thong tin dung an toan thi mirc lai suat 7%
ciia Viet Nam van la hap dan cho nha dau tu khdng mao hiem, vira an toan, nhan ha lai thanh khoan cao.
Nhu vay, cd the thay rang khdng cd mdt kenh dau tu tdi uu duy nhat nao, viec khdng "bd tat cd 8,1OUSD so vdi cudi phien giao trirng vao cimg mdt gid" ket hgp djch ngay 16/3 xudng odn
922USD/ounce tai san giao djch d New York, trong khi 1 nam la khoang 935USD/ounce. Nhu vay cd the thay ve dai han, dau tu vang cd lai, an toan nhung khdng Idn. Gia vang trong nhCrng ngay giu'a thang 3/2009 thiy, mua ban vang cd the thu lgi nhuan viia phai trong ngan han va la kenh dau tubd sung.
vdi viec lua chgn bd bao nhieu vao "gid" nao quyet djnh ban cd la nha dau tu tai ba hay khdng.
Mgt trong nhijng chien luge dau tu dugc chirng minh la cd hieu qua cao tren the gidi la Contrarian strategy, tam djch la chien luge dau tutrai chieu tire la lam ngugc lai xu hudng cua da phan cac nha dau tu tren thj trudng. Tuy nhien, de thyc hien Ngoai ra cd the thay ngoai te dugc chien luge nay can phai khdng bien dgng Idn trong hon I tien hanh cac nghien ciru phan ndm qua (chi khoang -6% den tich thj trudng. do vay can cd + 10% ddi vdi 2 ngoai te giao kien thiic chuyen mdn sau va dac
( Xem tiep trang 68 )
T a p c h i n g h i e n ciifu Tdi c h f n h k e t o d n <165
VAN DE HOM NAY ( So 4(69)-2009 )
Vuong qude Anh dl md cac khda dao tao Thac sy Tai chfnh va Thuong mai quoc te tai Viet Nam. Day la chuong trinh dao tao thac sy kinh tl dugc giang day theo chuong trinh, giao trinh, tai lieu, sach tham khao cua dai hgc Leeds, do dai hgc Leeds giam sat theo quy trinh dam bao chit lugng cua Anh va cip bing Thac sy cho hgc vien tdt nghiep. Cac mdn hgc trong chuong trinh se dugc cac giang vien ciia dai hgc Leeds va Hgc vien Tdi chfnh giang day hoan toan bing tiing Anh vdi ty le gid giang ciia hai ben tuong duong nhau. Luan van tdt nghiep do giang vien hai ben cimg hudng dan va cham diem.
Trong chuong trinh nay, Hgc Vien Tdi Chinh lya chgn ddi tac dai hgc Leeds la mdt trudng dai hgc Idn ciia Vuong qude Anh cd ljch sir gan 200 ndm va qui md dao tao tdi hon 50.000 sinh vien, trong dd khoang 10% la hgc bac cao hgc (thac sy). Dai hgc Leeds cQng la mdt trudng cd uy tfn tren the gidi vdi hon 1.500 sinh vien
quoc te tir hon 60 nudc den du hgc. Ngoai ra dai hgc Leeds cdn cd cac chuong trinh lien ket ddo tao ca dai hgc va cao hgc vdi vdi nhilu nudc, trong dd cd cac nudc chau A nhu Trung Qude, Hdng Kdng, An do...
Chuong trinh lien ket dao tao vdi dai hgc Leeds ciia Hgc Vien Tai Chfnh khdi dau vdi qui md kha khiem tdn, chi mdt khda hgc trong nien khda 2009-2010, dy kiln se dao tao dugc khoang 25 thac sy. Lgi fch dem lai khdng chi la sd lugng thac sy se dugc chuong trinh ddo tao cho dat nudc mdi nam ma cdn thdng qua chuong trinh, Hgc vien se cd nhilu kinh nghiem hon trong hgp tdc quoc te ve dao tao, uy tfn cua Hgc vien d trong vd ngoai nudc se dugc nang len. Cung qua chuong trinh hgp tac nay mgt sd giang vien tham gia chuong trinh se cd CO hdi trao ddi kinh nghiem vdi ddng nghiep, tiep can vdi giao trinh, cdng nghe, phuong phap dao tao tien tien ddng thdi cd djp thir thach trong mdi trudng dao tao quoc te, dac biet
viec giang day bang tieng Anh cQng gdp phan nang cao ky nang cua cac giang vien. Nhung kinh nghiem dd neu dugc tdng ket, phd bien rdng rai trong ddi ngu giang vien se se giiip cho viec ddi mdi phuong phap, nang cao chat lugng giao trinh, chat lugng giang day va se rat bun ich trong cac chuong trinh hgp tac quoc te sau nay.
Khda dao tao thac sy Tai chfnh vd Thuong mai quoc te, hgp tac vdi dai hgc Leeds mdi la budc diu tien cua chuong trinh hgp tac va hgi nhap quoc te ciia Hgc Vien Tdi Chfnh, dung theo chii truong ciia Nhd nudc.
Chuong trinh nay neu dugc thuc hien thanh cdng se tao ra mgt khdi diu thuan lgi vd md ra ca hgi cho nhilu chuong trinh hgp tac dao tao quoc te tiep theo cua Hgc vien, khdng chi d mgt bac dao tao ma ca d cdc bac khac nhu cao ddng vd dai hgc, khdng chi trong ITnh vyc tai chfnh va thuang mai ma ca cac ITnh vuc kinh te khdc./.
K€NH D^U T J N|!|0 H I € U QUA ...
( Tiep theo trang 65) biet la ngudn thdng tin ddi dao,chfnh xdc. Ben canh chien luge da dugc cdng nhan rdng rai, cac quyet djnh dau tu linh hoat cQng td ra dac biet hieu qua trong cac hoan canh khd khdn.
Nha dau tu kiem sieu lgi nhuan Id ngudi sang sudt lya chgn cac chien luge phii hgp cung nhu thdi diem de dp dyng cdc chien
luge dd. Viec ket hgp hgp ly cdc chien luge dau tu, phan bo vdn tren nhieu kenh khdng chi giiip chia se riii ro ma cdn mang lai Igi nhuan cao cho dii nen kinh tl d giai doan nao.
Tai lieu tham khao: • • -Reully, F. K. and Brown, K. C.
(2003). "Investment Analysis Portfolio Management", 6' edition. USA. Shepherd, Inc.
- Website.www.vneconomy.net www. vietbao. com,
www. wikipedia. org
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