PHAT TRIEN KINH TE
VON VAT CHAT VA PHAT TRIEN K I N H TE a VIET N A M
ERIC IKSOON IM* VA TAM BANG VU"
Trong bdi ndy, tdc gia su dung so li^u cho cdc ngdnh kinh ti de nghien cuu tdc dpng ciia von vdt chat len tdng tru&ng kinh te & VN. Mpt tr& nggi chung cho cdc nghien ciru vi di tdi ndy Id so ligu cho von vdt chat khdng ton tgi trong thuc te. Vi vgy tdc gid gi&i thi^u mpt phuang phdp mdi di dgt dirgrc tham so cho cho tdng tru&ng von md khdng can so lifU cho von vgt chat Ket qud cho thay tdc dpng ciia tdng tru&ng vdn len tdng tru&ng kinh te giai dogn 1990-2002 cao han giai dogn 2000-2010. Tdc gid cung phdt hi^n tang tru&ng von co tdc dpng rdt khdc nhau len timg thdnh phdn kinh te riing biet. Dua tren ket qud ndy, tdc gid cung cap mpt vdi gpi y ve li thuyet vd chinh sdch ve tdng truang vdn vd phdt trien kinh te & VN.
Til'khoa: Uac luang tdng truang von. mire l(ri nhudn, hdm .sdn xudt
1. Gidi thieu
V d n vat chat, vdn n h a n lyc v i lao d d n g la b a yeu Id quan frong nhat anh h u d n g tdi p h i t trien kinh le d mgi qudc gia. Bai vidt nay tap trung nghien cuu vdn vat chat (ggi tat l i vdn) va tang trudng ldng s i n lugng qudc dan (GDP) d VN, Do V N la mdt nudc dang p h i t trien nen can t i m hidu x e m viec sir dung vdn cd hieu qua h a y khdng d e cd bien p h i p x u Ii dung mire v i n d e q u i n li vdn ciia c i c doanh nghiep.
T u y nhien, tim d u g c sd lieu vdn thai khdng d c . M a c dil sd lieu dau t u rat s i n , " d i u t u " la bi£n luu thdng (chiy) nen khdng the sii dung cho h a m s i n xual thay c h o " v d n " la bidn c d djnh (iTnh), R i t nhieu n h i nghien cihi da thir u d c l u g n g sd lieu vdn n h u nghien ciiu cua Dadkiah & Zahedi (1990), Hulten & Wykoff ( I 9 8 I ) , Hulten, C.R. (1991), Prueha (1997), G i b o r Pula (2003), Ward (1973), va O E C D (2001, 2 0 0 9 ) . . . T u y nhien, sd lieu d u g c u d c l u a n g rat nhay c a m vdi nhiing g i i thigt va djnh nghTa d u g c thiet lap bdi tirng t a c g i i nen ti le vdn/sin lugng d a o d g n g tir 0,8 - 3,2 n h u d a d u g e phan tich trong Pula (2003). VI vay, cd the ndi
" v d n " la mpt bien khd u d c l u o n g n h i t trong kinh td.
Trong b i i n i y , tac gia gidi thieu m d i p h u o n g phap mdi d6 u d c l u g n g d u o c s u lang i r u d n g cua vdn
^ A NGHIDN CUUaTRAOBOl
khdng can tdi sd lipu c h o vdn. Sau do t i c gia pban tich t i c d g n g ciia tang t r u d n g v o n ten tang tiuong cua s i n l u g n g cho cac nganh kinh te d VN.
2. Mo hinh va so lieu
T i c g i i sir d y n g h i m s i n xuat Cobb-Douglas vdi nang s u i t bien dn dinh ( C R T S ) :
Y,=Ae"K,''L'-'' Mj
Trong dd 9 = {A,T,a)' bidu thj mdt vectociia c i c tham sd u d e l u g n g d u a vao Y, ( s i n lugng cac nganh kinh t c ) . / ^ , (vdn), vaZ,, (Iao ddng). Neu udc l u g n g d u g c 6 trong p h u a n g frinh (1) ma khdng phai dimg d e n K^ thi d p tang trudng ciia K^ cd the duoc suy dien tir p h u a n g trinh (1) d u a fren sd lieu cho Y, va i , . D e c h i m g minh k h i nang nay, trudc tien lac g i i t a m Ihdi loai b d chi sd thdi gian t va viet lai phuong trinh (1) nhu sau:
trong dd y = Y IL and k = K IL.
Nhu vay
*GS.TS., Tnt&ng B$ihoc Hav/ali-Hilo
*GS.TS., Tru>dfng D$ihoc Havfaii-HHo
P H A T T R I E N K I N H T E So 261, Thang Bay nam 2012
dy , I iSy = ^^ IJc = Aae k Ak
^ dk
Trong dd AA: bieu thi su bien ddi ciia vdn binh quan dau ngudi vi Ay la su bien ddi ciia sin lugng binh quan dau ngudi.
Vi mdi luong diu Ur trong kinh 16 vT md Iim glim cimg mdt lugng tidu diing ci nhan trong ciing mdt giai doan. At khdng chi bieu thi dau tu mi cdn bieu thi chi phi ca hdi cho sd lugng lieu dung ca nhan bi mat. Vi \ay mire Idi thu duoc do dau lu Aft bieu thi bangA;T dudi day, phai dimg bang su khic biet giiia Ai' va A t . dan den.
A;r = Av-Aft = / 4 e " a r " ' M - - A t = ( / l e " a r " ' - l ) A t .
Theo dd, miic Igi nhuan do diu tu At duoc viel nhu sau:
p = An:lhk^Ae"ak''-''\ (3) Neu dau tu cho mdi giai doan l i de tdi uu hda
mtic lgi nhuan, thi dau tu phii dugc tiep tyc cho tdi khi suit lgi nhuan diing bing Iai suit tiet kiem thyc td hing nam ( r ) , cy t b e , p - r , do vay, pfrong phuong frinh (3) cd thl dugc thay the bang r,
r^Ae^cdc"-^ -\. (4) Giii phuang trinh tren eho k:
\Ae a) * '
Thay thS k vao (2) va tim nghiem cho y:
y = A'-'e'-'a'-'(l + r)''-' ^^j
Vi phucrng trinh co dien cho tang truang kmh te duoc viet;
\-aG,. +(l-a)G^ (10)
(7) Lay logarit phuofng trinh (6):
trong do
fl =—!—In/I; fi,-T/(\-a); ft.a/(a-l) (X) Tim a tir phuang trinh (8);
a = A/(A-l) (9)
Trong dd Gy la tang trudng sin lugng cua mdt nginh kinh te trong bit niy, G^ la tang ning suat cic ydu to long hgp (FTP), GK li tang tnjdng vdn, vi G/, li tang trudng lao ddng, tham sd a bieu thj phin ling frudng von tic ddng den tang trudng san lugng ciia moi nginh kinh te U'dc lupng phuong frinh (7) se thu duac thdng tin can thiet de tinh toin tham sd cho tang trudng vdn binh quan dau ngudi theo phucmg trinh (9) mi khdng can phai tim kiem sd lieu cho vdn vat chat
Sd lieu ve san luang kinh te, lao ddng va lai suit tiet kicm thuc Id hang nam tir 1990 - 2002 dugc frich tir Phu luc bao cio ciia Quy Tien te Qudc tc (IMF) Sd lieu vd sin lugng dugc cung cip cho 9 nganh kinh td nhung sd lieu v6 Iao dgng chi cho 7 nginh, vi vay tic gii chi tien hinh udc lugng 7 nginh kinh te cho giai doan niy Sd lieu vd sin lugng kinh te cho 19 nginh tir 2000 - 2010 lay frr Nien gidm thong ke VN. Sd lieu vd lao ddng cho giai doan niy chi cho 9 nganh kinh le va chi 8 nganh tning khdp vdi sd lieu vd sin lugng kinh te, do dd tic gia chi tidn hinh udc lugng 8 nginh kinh le cho giai doan niy. Sd lieu ve lai suit tiet kiem thuc le hing nam tir 2000 - 2010 thu dirge tir Ngan hing The gidi. Tic gli lao dyng bien gii cho cac nganh r 1 I kinh te tucmg iing de e'-"'a:'-"(l + r)*'-' ,g, udc lugng tic dgng khic nhau len mdi nganh,
3. Ket qua va thao luan
Tic gia udc lugng phuang frinh (7) sir dung hai bg sd lieu tren. Kiem djnh Hauman cho thiy phuong phap hieu iing khdng ddi (fixed effect) li thich hgp ban ca. Cic kidm djnh Hausman dieu chinh khdng phat hien mgt bien ndi sinh nio nen khdng can thiet phai su dung phuang phap binh phuang tdi thieu hai giai doan (2SLS). Thay the /3 vao phuang trinh (9), tic gii thu dugc tham sd lap vio phuong trinh (10) de udc lugng tic dpng ciia tang trudng vdn len tang trudng tdng san lugng kinh le. Im & Vu (2012) da chi ra rang phuang phip niy thu dugc ket qua thyc nghiem cho vdn vat chat tai My rat gidng vdi ket
NGHIDN C1>U & TRAO Qdl
31
P H A T T R I E N K I N H T E
qui thu dugc tir cic phuang phap khac trong Pula (2003) va Summers-Heston (1991). Do vay, tic gii cd CO sd de tin ring phuong phip niy dang tin cay trong viec udc lugng tang Irudng von cho VN.
Ket qui tdng quit cho cac bien trong phuong trinh (7) va tham sd udc lugng cho lang trudng von dugc ghi lai frong Bang 1 Chiing cho thay tang trudng vdn quyet djnh 33,59% tang trudng long sin lugng d VN frong giai doan 1990-2002 nhung chi quyet dinh 19,94% tang trudng niy trong giai doan 2000-2010. Vi tic ddng ciia ting Irudng von ten ldng sin lugng qudc gia tren the gidi vio khoang 33%, ket qui cho thay tang Irudng vdn ldn tdng sin lugng qudc gia giai doan 2000-2010 d VN qui thap.
Day khdng phii la mot diu hidu tdt vi cd the phan anh sy ddi vdn hoac vice sii dung vdn thieu hieu qua ciia cic doanh nghiep frong giai doan sip tdi. Vi VN cd ve nhu klidng thieu vdn trong hau bet cic nam tir 2000 - 2010, Ii do thir hai cd le de dugc cac nhi nghien ciiu chap nhan hcm.
Sir dyng nganh cdng nghiep lam nhdm co sd, tic gii tao dyng 6 bien gia cho cic nganh kinh te khac trong giai doan 1990-2002, bao gdm xay dyng, giao thdng van tii-thdng tin, thuong nghiep-siia chira- miy mdc, giio duc-siic khde-nghe thuat, ndng -lam- ngu nghiep, va cac nginh khac. Ket qui cho tirng nganh kinh te dugc thl hidn trong Bing 2. Sd lieu nghien ciiu cho thay tham sd udc lugng ciia nganh cdng nghiep cao hon miic trung binh 13%. Nganh cd hieu suat cao nhat la giio duc-siic khde-nghe thuat vdi tham sd udc lugng cao ban nganh cdng nghiep 14% va cd y nghia thdng ke cao. Tham sd cho cac nginh khic Urong ty nhu cho nganh cdng nghiep. Tham sd cho cac nganh cdn lai thip hon nganh cdng nghiep. Thii frr xep hang ciia cac nganh nay, bi cao nhat tdi thip nhit nhu sau: thuong nghiep-sua chira-miy mdc, xay dyng, giao thdng van tai-tbdng tin, va ndng - lam - ngu nghiep.
Tiep tuc sii dung nginh cdng nghiep lam nhdm CO sd, tic gii tao dung 7 bien gia cho cac nginh kinh te khic trong giai doan 2000-2010, bao gdm thuc pham-nhi d, xay dung, giao thdng-kho bai-thdng tin, thuong nghiep, giao duc-siic khde-van hda, ndng - lam -ngu nghiep yi cac nganh khac. Kdt qua cho tirng nganh kinh td dugc bao cao trong Bang 2. Thii ly xep hang ciia cac nganh tuong ty nhu trong giai
do^n 1990-2002 vdi cic ngoai Ig sau: (1) thyc phim- nhi d li nginh mdi vi cd tham so udc lugng thap han nginh cdng nghipp 19%. (2) Nganh giao dyc- siic khde-van hda vi thuong nghi?p cd tham so ir6c lugng tuong ty nhu nginh cong nghiep vi cd y nghTa thong ke cao. Nhin chung, tham so udc Iirgng ctia giai do^in niy thap hon cita giai doan trudc.
Cd ba khi nang giii thich hipn tugng niy. Thii nhat, ng cdng cao cd the tam tang lai suit cho vay trong giai doan 2009-2010 nen nhieu doanh nghidp klidng the vay von, Thii hai, tam phit cao frong giai doan 2008-2010 Iim lai suat thyc te giam khien cho cic ngan hing khdng huy dgng dugc dii von cho vay. Cudi ciing, vdn khdng dugc su dung cd hieu qui do khiing hoing tii chinh toin ciu, tham nhiJng, hoac thieu kinh nghiem quan li ciia cic doanh nghidp. Mac dii VN da va dang dya rat nhieu vao vdn de tang trudng kinh tc, kel qui udc lugnghamy cic doanh nghipp d VN da bat dau bi ddi von va c6 the gap phii tinh frang luong tu trong thdi gian tdi, 4. Ket luan va gtfi y chinh sach
Ve mat li thuyet, ket qua thu dugc ham y cac tham sd frong ham sin xuat cd the dugc udc lugng mdt cich gian tiep ma khdng cin tdi sd lieu cho v6n vat chit va nhi nghien cim cd the dua vao do phan tich tic ddng ciia tang trudng vdn len tang ttirong san tugng kinh te. Phuong phip nay cung co the dugc ip dung dd udc lucmg sd lieu vdn nhu duac trinh bay trong nghien ciiu ciia Im & Vu (2012) ma khdng can phai dat ra nhicu gia thiet thieu linh thuyet phuc nhu frong cic phuong phap cd dien.
Cd mgt vai ggi y chinh sach. Thii nhit, cd the giam ng cdng dd lam giam lai suit cho vay tang kha nang cho doanh nghiep vay thdm vdn. Thii hai, Ngan hing Nha nudc cin kiem soil lam phat de nang lai suit thyc Id thu hiit ngudi tieu dimg gtii tiel kiem nhieu hcm va giiip cho cac NHTM thu hut von cho vay dugc de dang. Cudi ciing, chinh quyen tmng uong va dja phucmg can day manh phong trio chong tham nhiing va khuyen khich doanh nghiep nang cao trinh do quan li vdn nham dat hieu qua cao trong viec sir dung vdn. Dieu nay dac biet quan frgng cho ndng - lam - ngu nghiep vi cac nganh nay thudng d cac viing xa thinh pho vi bao gom nhieu hp ngheo, Vi cac hp ngheo khdng sd hiiu ngudn vdn ddi dao, hp rat can hpc each quin li vdn mgt cich huu hieu
3 2 '^°"'^N c u u & TRAO DPI
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE
I So 2 6 1 , T h a n g B d y n a m 2012
nham nang cao nang suit vdn va theo do nang .cao san lugng cua mdi nganh kinh te. Vdn vat chat se ludn ludn la mdt trong ba yeu td quan trgng frong sin xuat nen vide sii dyng vdn mdt each hiiu hidu se
gdp phan xda ddi giim ngheo vi Ihuc day phat frien kinh td d VNB
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
Dadkiah, K and Zahedi, h. (1990), "Estimating a Cross Country Comparison of the Capital Stock." Empirical Economics, Vol. 25, 383-408.
Fernaid J, & Ramnath, S. (2004), "The Acceleration in US Total Factor Productivity after 1995: The Role of Information Technology." Economic Perspectives. 52-67.
Gomme, P, & Rupert, P (2004), "Measunng Labor's Share of Income," Policy discussion papers. Number 7, 11/
2004, Federal Reserve Banit of Cleveland.
Hulten, C.R. (1991), "The Measurement of Capital," Fifty Years of Economic Measurement, (Ed) Berndt-Triplett, Chicago
Im, E, I & Vu, T.B. (2012), An Econometric Shortcut to Capital Stock Estimation. Worlting paper at Uhinersity of Hawaii-Hilo
Nehru, V. and A. Dhareswar (1994), "New Estimates of Total Factor Productivity Growth for Developing and Industrial Countnes," World Bank, WPS 1313.
OECD Manual (2001), Measuring Capital. Measurement of Capital Stocks. Consumption of Fixed Capital and Capital Sen/ices, OECD, Paris, France.
OECD Manual (2009), Measunng Capital. OECD, Paris, France,
(http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2009doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00000962/$FILE/JT03258144.PDF)
Pula, G. (2003), Capital Stock Estimation in Hungary. A Brief Description of Methodology and Results, Working paper 2003/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest, Hungary,
Summers, R. and A, Heston (1991). "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988", Quarrer^y Jouma/of £conom/cs, Vol.106, 23-39
Ward, M (1976). The Measurement of Capital: The Methodology of Capital Stock Estimates in OECD Countnes.
OECD, Paris, France.
N G H I E N c d u & TRAO Ddi
