Cabinet Office, Department of the Premier and Cabinet, April 2004:
"A population policy for South Australia"
© Government of South Australia
This speech is made available under the CC-BY-NC- ND 4.0 license:
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A Population Policy for South Australia
Adam Graycar Head
Cabinet Office
Basic Demography
Population growth and composition are driven by
Fertility
Migration (international and interstate)
Mortality
Complex inter-relationship between the above
ABS Population Projections, South Australia, 2001-2051
1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65
2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
million persons
Series A Series B Series C
Standard ABS Series B population projection is that the State’s population will go into long-term decline within 25 years
Population debate is about
What kind of society we want
What kind of lifestyle we want
Where we want to live
What value we place on cultural diversity
What types of jobs we want
What balance we want between younger and older people
Population Challenge for South Australia
Declining population =
declining economy
less competitive business environment
restricted variety and choice of products and services
diminished ability to influence national government and non-government forums
Population Challenge for South Australia
(cont) Acting alone State Government has limited control
Decisions are a matter of individual choice
Trends are driven by economic and market forces
Many policy levers are controlled by the Australian Government
South Australia’s current challenges
Increasing imbalance between working age and dependent older population
Net loss of young people, especially skilled young people
Sustained low fertility and continued ageing could create an age structure with a
momentum for population decline – economic and social consequences
Australia and South Australia : Rate of Population Growth per Annum, 1947-2002
Source: Source: ABS 1986 and Australian Demographic Statistics Quarterlies, various issues
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Year
Percent
South Australia Australia
Current demographic trends in South Australia
(2002) Low and declining fertility (TFR* 1.7)
Low share of national migrant intake (4.2%)
Outflow of young, educated, high income professionals interstate (approx 1,500)
Population ageing (SA ‘oldest’ of all States and Territories – SA median age 37.9
compared to 35.9 nationally)
* Total Fertility Rate indicates approximately the completed total number of
Geographic distribution of South Australia’s population
Overwhelmingly concentrated in Adelaide
Strong growth in towns within
commuting distance of Adelaide and towns with intensive industries
‘Sea change’ retirement migration
Decline in Upper Spencer Gulf and non- coastal towns
SA LGAs with largest and fastest population decline
LGA No. % LGA No. %
Largest Decline (2002-03p) Fastest Decline (2002-03p) Whyalla (C)
Renmark Paringa (DC)
Clare & Gilbert Valleys (DC)
Pt Pirie City & Dist (M)
Goyder (DC)
-290-140
-110-90 -80
-1.3-1.4
-1.3-0.5 -1.8
Karoonda East Murray (DC)
Coober Pedy (DC) Goyder (DC)
Cleve (DC) Robe (DC)
-50 -60-80 -30-20
-3.8 -1.8-2.7 -1.5-1.7
Source: ABS (2004) Regional Population Growth, Australia & New Zealand,
SA LGAs with largest and fastest population growth
Source: ABS (2004) Regional Population Growth, Australia & New Zealand, 3218.0
LGA No. % LGA No. %
Largest Growth (2002-03p) Fastest Growth (2002-03p) Salisbury (C)
Onkaparinga (C) Port Adelaide Enfield (C) Playford (C)
Mount Barker (DC)
1 400 910900
730600
1.20.6 0.9 1.02.5
Light (Reg C)
Victor Harbor (C) Alexandrina (DC) Mount Barker (DC) Grant (DC)
570350 500600 180
5.33.0 2.52.7 2.3
Australia and South Australia : Education and Training, 2002
Source: ABS 2003
Participants
South
Aust % Aust % Year 12 retention rate – males 61.1 69.8 Year 12 retention rate – females 72.6 80.7 Educ participation – all 15-19 76.7 77.3 Educ participation – all 20-24 35.5 37.2 Higher educ students – all 15-24 17.1 19.8 Labour force (employed or
unemployed) with post-school qualification - 25-64
51.4 55.0
Population Ageing
Proportion of South Australia’s
population 65 and over is currently 14.7%
By 2050 population 65 and over is projected to increase to 31%
In the same time, population over 85 will increase four fold
Impacts of ageing
Smaller workforce needing to provide support to larger numbers of older citizens living
longer beyond retirement
Prospect of future labour shortages and a
labour supply unable to meet the demands of a modern economy
Increases demand for pensions, health and aged care
Need for re-skilling and retraining an ageing workforce
What is a Population Policy?
should be a comprehensive set of objectives, strategies and actions intended to influence population growth, size, distribution and
composition, while supporting the
community’s broader economic, social and environmental objectives
Delivering a Population Policy
Requires a partnership involving the community, business, the volunteer sector, education and all levels of government
A population vision
Improve South Australia’s stature as an attractive place to live and work
Enhance living standards of all people – current and future
Secure and nurture a population for long- term development
Need to achieve a sustainable age profile and halt momentum toward population decline
Responsible population growth
Provides benefits of economies of scale and greater competition
Supports more viable firms and greater choice
Provides variety of creative activities, including innovation and R&D
Responsible population growth
(cont)
Maintains ability to influence decisions made in national government and non- government forums
Provides larger tax base to fund services and environmental programs
Maintains Commonwealth funding levels to Local and State Government and non-
government
Objectives of a State Population Policy
Support economic and social initiatives
Environmental sustainability
Social justice
Achieve a balanced age structure
Increase or stabilise fertility
Reduce net interstate migration loss
Increase intake of overseas migrants
Lift the skill level of the whole population
Objective of South Australia’s Population Policy
To build a skilled, prosperous and sustainable South Australia that
supports its people in their career, lifestyle and settlement choices
Requires joint government, business and community action
State Population Policy’s targets
Maintain our current national population share
Effectively double our current population growth rate
Achieve a population of 2 million people by 2050
A sustainable age structure
Requires improving SA’s net migration performance by:
Increasing the State’s share of the national migration intake
Increasing the number of expatriates and potential interstate migrants returning or relocating to the State
Reducing the net outflow of young and skilled people
A sustainable age structure
(cont)
Improving parents’ abilities to balance the
imperatives of work and family life to improve workforce participation and work-hours
options
Responding to the needs of, and improving the prospects and choices of, mature aged people
Improving the skill level in the State and using to the full the talents of all of our people
International migration
Highly competitive
Several European countries have
Record low fertility
Skill shortage
Significantly older population
South Australian Share of Australia’s Migrant Intake by Visa Class 2002-03
Source: DIMIA
Visa Class Non Permanent
Arrivals in SA Share of Australian Total
Family Skilled Business
Humanitarian
1,243 1,239 93 686
4.4 3.9 1.7 7.2
Total 3,261 4.2
State Sponsored Regional Migration Figures
Australia South Australia
Year Number Number Percent
1998–99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
2,804 3,309 3,846 4,136 7,941
1,034 702 750 703 1,324
58.426.9 24.2 20.5 16.7
Immigrants are predominantly attracted to live near earlier generations of immigrants
Immigrant concentration tends to follow spatial shifts in economic growth rather than create them
State immigration policy can be effective in attracting small numbers of people with key skills
Immigrants
Who should we attract to South Australia?
Immigrants settle where there are earlier generations of immigrants
SA will in the short term attract only small numbers of immigrants
Most potential immigrants will know little about SA
Why not concentrate on people with knowledge of SA
Former residents – elsewhere in Australia and overseas
Other Australians
Why can South Australia attract people?
OECD nations are decentralising
Information and Transport Technology
Economic Restructuring
Housing and Living Costs
Environmental Costs
“Greasing the Rails”
Migration Targets
By 2008
Increase five-fold or better (to 600) the number of business migrants
Double or better (to 2,500) the intake of independent skilled migrants
Increase to at least 10% (to 1,200) our share of humanitarian migrants
New actions to attract and retain international migrants
New visa categories
Encourage community-sponsored migration
Increased support for the Migrant Resource Centre
Matching business migrants with business opportunities
Joint overseas students/migration promotions
New actions to attract and retain international migrants
(cont) Federal Government Regional Migration Officer
Suitable rural location for humanitarian migrants
Improve settlement services
Overseas qualification recognition
Skill matching database/Job Network pilot
New actions to attract and retain interstate migrants & expatriates
Establish an expatriate database
Upgrade Immigration SA website
Develop a register of business needs for matching with expatriates
Employment promotion to expatriates
Expand Business Ambassadors Network Program
High calibre researchers
Opening up public sector employment
New role for Government
Broader role for Immigration SA
Promotion campaign
Regional migration workshops
Fertility and ageing targets
Sustain fertility at around the Australian average or better so as to at least match Australian fertility levels
Achieve a balanced and sustainable age structure through population growth
Improve work participation and work-hours decisions by assisting with better work-
family-education options and choices
New actions to strike a better work-life balance
Stakeholder workshop on workplace flexibility
Awareness raising program
Develop a range of resources and tools
Remove disincentives for work participation of older workers
New actions to strike a better work-life balance
(cont) ‘Managing an Ageing Workforce’
seminar program
Establish a ‘Work and Life’ accreditation and award
Public sector lead
Cooperative care
Influence the Federal Government
Recently announced children’s services
Home Visiting Program
Integration of child care facilities
Child Care Scholarships
Targets to improve workforce participation and skill level
Increase the proportion of the South Australian labour force with non-school
qualifications from 50.7% in 2002 to 55%
(the national average) by 2013
Exceed Australia’s average productivity growth
Achieve a rate of employment growth in South Australia equal to or better than the Australian average
New actions for labour force and skills development
‘Return to Work’ credit
Cadet Scheme
A Talent Strategy for South Australia
State budget and the impact of population ageing
Significant and increased demands for
Public hospitals
Community health services
Public housing
Public transport
More emphasis on education and training
Planning for a healthy population
Improving healthy life expectancy
Diseases and injuries relating to ageing are on the rise
Emphasis on prevention, early
intervention, health promotion and reducing health inequalities
Health system with a focus on the needs of the population
Social inclusion
Social Inclusion Board working towards more socially inclusive South Australia
Developing a society where all people feel valued and empowered
Improving skills and retraining key to addressing under-utilisation of current population
Initial focus has been school retention, homelessness and drugs
State Housing Plan
Will address emerging housing needs
Outline a 10 year strategy
South Australians should be able to find affordable, appropriate and quality
housing
In response to major demographic trends
Planning and Infrastructure Strategies
A growing population and economy require a responsive planning system that
supports land use requirements of population and industry
promotes protection and sustainable use of natural resources
Focus on government and business investment in strategic infrastructure
Population growth is conditional
Relationship between population and environment is deeply complex
A sustainable society is one that is far- seeing enough, flexible enough and
wise enough not to undermine either its physical or its social systems of support
Population growth is conditional
(cont) Proposition that responsible population growth is achievable in South Australia is conditional on the State’s
environmental challenges being addressed
Resource efficiency and environmental protection policies and programs will be implemented along side population
growth
Local government partners
A significant role for local government
State/Local Relations Agreement will build closer and more productive and collaborative working relationship
Will develop a State/Local partnership approach to the Population Policy
Conclusion
Need to recognise the significance of population issues for the State
Population issues are a part of improving our human resources, innovation and
competitiveness
Need for vigorous informed debate – inclusive of all groups
Need to integrate Population Policy with other areas of policy
Long lead times require action now