The current research contributes to the heuristics and biases literature related to military decision-making processes. Both instructors and a key informant believe that the checklist will help them improve the use of the MAP by junior officers.
INTRODUCTION
- Research Background
- Research Objectives
- Research Questions
- Outline of the Report
Instructors of junior officers in the NZ Army acknowledge that the use of the MAP is subject to bias. The instructors believe that a heuristics and biases checklist can be developed to improve the use of the MAP by junior officers.
LITERATURE REVIEW
- Introduction
- The Initial Research
- Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics
- Summary
- The Updated Research
- Gilovich, Griffin, & Kahneman (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of
- Summary
- Kahneman and Gigerenzer
- Kahneman, (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and
- Summary
- Military Papers
- Janser (2007). Cognitive Biases in Military Decision Making. Carlisle, PA: U.S
- Checklist
- Synthesis
- Conclusion
Worse, the influence of heuristics and biases is due to the artificiality of the laboratory environment. Do they agree with a distribution (based on a literature synthesis) of the main heuristics and biases towards particular MAP steps.
METHODOLOGY
- Research Philosophy
- Informing Research
- Usefulness vs Truth
- Research Perspective
- Perspective/Approach Adopted
- Research Method
- Semi-structured Interviews
- Closed Card Sort
- Research Credibility
- Credibility
- Limitations
- Bias
- Planning
- Participants
- Access
- Resources
- Schedule
- Time-line
- Conclusion
These concepts align well with the idea of working with MAP instructors to improve the use of the MAP by non-commissioned officers. The context of using the map sorting tool is directly related to the nature of the intended improvement. A qualitative methodology was applied to answer research question 2, the most important last sentence of which reads: Do the instructors believe that a checklist for heuristics and biases could be developed to improve the use of the MAP by non-commissioned officers?
The world in this context was their understanding and experience of the application and use of the MAP. However, this was offset by the literature review and the use of the steps (but not the biases) in the synthesized model in Table 5 as target for map species. Researcher bias is further discussed when using the closed card sorting method used in part two of the interview structure.
Demographic details of each participant were recorded during the interviews to provide average experience and expertise in using and teaching MAP (Table 7). Do instructors tend to agree with the assignment (based on a theoretical reference model synthesized from the literature) of key heuristics and biases to specific MAP steps.
DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Analysis of Interview Data
- Profile of the Participants
- Purpose and usefulness of the MAP
- Strengths and Weaknesses of the MAP
- Problems with Initial Use and Common Issues
- Usefulness of a Checklist
- Conclusion
So MAP is doing two things; it is helping planning and helping decision making in executing the plan. MAP enables you to balance, in the time available, the use of slow-thinking analysis against fast-thinking intuition. Maybe I didn't explain this very well, but my point is that the MAP tool can be used in either a smart or dumb way for planning and decision making.
For those new to the military and lacking in experience, MAP is confusing, as this comment shows; "new and inexperienced are faced with military culture (now learning), a. Therefore, a smart checklist to mitigate bias at those critical points in MAP that require assumptions and deductive reasoning would be very helpful. A strong theme was that participants felt that a checklist would be very useful as junior officers could improve the use of MAP.
MAP is a useful tool for solving complexity and developing useful solutions. Instructors strongly believe that the checklist has positive benefits for both them and the students and that it could lead to better awareness of decisions and use of MAP.
Analysis of the Card Sort Data
- Reference models
- Parameters
- Levels
- Analysis at the step level (Table 10 and Appendix D)
- Analysis at the step OR cluster level (Table 11 and Appendix E)
- Analysis at the cluster level
45 For Step 1, a total of 5 of 7 tasks (71%) matched the requirements of the consensus model, and 6 of 7 (86%) met the requirements of the theoretical model. Five assignments were captured in the worst-fitting model (i.e., empirical consensus model) (WFM=5), and the additional fit when moving from the empirical model to the theoretical model is one (6-5) (MI=1). More importantly, five assignments were captured by the empirical consensus model of card sorting (EM=5), six assignments were captured by the theoretical model (TM=6), and six assignments were captured by the best-fit model (i.e., theoretical model). in Table 5) (BFM=6).
For group 1, evaluated strictly at the level of each step, a total of 57 of 81 tasks (70%) met the requirements of the consensus model, 41 tasks (51%) met the requirements of the theoretical model, and 58 (72%) met the requirements of the best-fitting model (ie, the empirical consensus model of card classification). For step 1, a total of 6 of 7 tasks (86%) met the requirements of the consensus model and 7 of 7 (100%) met the requirements of the theoretical model. Six tasks were captured in the best-fitting model (i.e., the empirical consensus model) (WFM=6), and the additional fit in moving from the empirical model to the theoretical model is one (7–6) (MI=1).
Most importantly, six tasks were captured in the empirical card-sort consensus model (EM=6), seven tasks were captured in the theoretical model (TM=7), and seven tasks were captured in the best-fit model (i.e., theoretical model in Table 5) (BFM=7). For group 1, assessed using the OR logic, a total of 69 of 81 tasks (85%) met the requirements of the consensus model, 70 tasks (86%) met the requirements of the theoretical model, and 73 (90%) met the requirements of the model most appropriate (ie, the theoretical model . in Table 5).
Conclusion
DISCUSSION
- The Purpose of the MAP
- The MAP Strong Points
- The MAP Weak Points
- Common and Persistent Problems
- The Benefit and Usefulness of a Checklist
- The Assertion
It emerged from the responses that there is a robust and general consensus on the purpose and usefulness of MAP. A central weakness of MAP and identified by most, centered on the lack of responsiveness to changes in the environment. Instructors observed that new users are unconsciously exposed to bias in the steps of MAP where key decisions are made that affect problem definition and solution development.
They believe it could allow them and students to have focused discussions about the effect of bias in the MAP steps. Yes, NCO instructors in the New Zealand Army admit that the use of MAP is subject to bias. Yes, they usually agree on assigning (a theoretical reference model synthesized from the literature) key heuristics and biases to specific MAP steps.
Most importantly, the instructors believe that a checklist of heuristics and biases could be developed to improve the use of MAP by junior officers. This follow-up trial can test the benefit and usefulness claimed by the participants in this research and the belief that it can improve the teaching and use of MAP.
CONCLUSION
Responses to the Research Questions
54 . 55 on a theoretical reference model synthesized from the literature) from key heuristics and biases to specific steps of the MAP. The effective understanding and use of the MAP is also dependent on the knowledge and experience of the user (which is minimal), thus making them vulnerable to the effect of biases. Therefore, common standards and shortcuts are used by students to compensate for insufficient experience, knowledge and time allocation for learning and application.
Therefore, in response to the questions: first, there has been no research on identifying heuristics and biases in MAP steps; second, a MAP instruction checklist can now be developed that instructors believe could improve junior officers' use of the procedure.
Implications
The steps in the MAP are subject to the effects of biases and without knowledge of them will unconsciously influence the user's decision-making: The implication is that formal awareness of relevant biases identified in this study would influence the instruction and use of the MAP can improve. A checklist developed for use in instruction and subsequent student application could contribute to better decision-making under the uncertainties of military planning. This research also has implications for other TRADOC training elements, such as the Tactical School, where the MAP is applied in professional development courses.
Outside the military, JMAP is used within the NZ Defense Collage (NZDC) where interest in this research has been expressed by the Leadership Development Institute and the NZDF Command and Staff College.
Contribution of this Research
58 Finally, this research found a rich set of similarities and differences between the consensus model of participant card sorting, the theoretical model (based on literature synthesis), and the best-fit model, which, when summarized in a deceptively simple table (Table 12). ), is the basis of a useful checklist.
Limitations
Therefore, the participant responses refer only to opinion and experiences with biases affecting the MAP in this organization. This means that wider application in how it affects the MAP in other units and formations within the Army and NZDF is not included. Second, a semi-structured interview and card sorting activity was used as a research instrument, which has its own limitations.
The questions, however carefully constructed to be clear and concise, remain open to participant interpretation and the writer's biases.
Future Research
Interview tapes and transcripts are kept in a locked office and destroyed at the end of the study. With your permission, the interview will be recorded and a summary of the report will be provided before the project is submitted for review. I understand that none of the opinions or statements I make during the interview will be attributed to me personally and that I may withdraw from the study by August 29.
I was informed that a summary report would be provided before the project was submitted for review. What is the purpose of MAP and how useful is it for making decisions using MAP in critical situations. Evaluate the enemy's actions and reactions from your own perspective (beliefs, values or attitudes) and not from the enemy's.
This increases your cognitive load and can expose you to errors in selecting and emphasizing the wrong information. You have chosen an action on identifying the survival rate (a profit) forecast for the plan. Note that assignments based on the empirical model EM=BM+EO and assignments based on the theoretical model TM=BM+TO.
There was 100% agreement that all 10 biases should be included based on the empirical model (the inclusion of biases in the MAP as a whole required 15 assignments, or three times the number required to include each component group).
