• Tidak ada hasil yang ditemukan

CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2023

Membagikan "CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH"

Copied!
18
0
0

Teks penuh

(1)

CENTRE FOR

ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH

Australian National University

DISCUSSION PAPERS

:

Income-Contingent Financing of Student Charges for Higher Education: Assessing the Australian Innovation

Bruce Chapman1 and Chris Ryan2

DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 449 May 2002

ISSN: 1442-8636 ISBN: 0 7315 3519 7

1 Bruce Chapman is Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Economics Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra Australia.

E-mail: Bruce.Chapman @anu.edu.au

2 Chris Ryan is a Research Fellow, Economics Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra Australia.

E-mail: c_ryan@optusnet.com.au Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the excellent research assistance of Tony Salvage. All responsibility for the contents lies with the authors

(2)

CONTENTS

Page

Abstract iii

Introduction 1 Conceptual issues: what is the right form of government assistance? 1

Up-front fees with means-tested scholarships 2 Up-front fees with government subsidised bank loans 2

Income contingent loans 3

Implications of different financing approaches 3 Australian university financing in historical context 4

1973 to 1986 4

Introduction of HECS 4

HECS compared to conventional student loan schemes 6 What HECS Means for Students 6

Charge levels 6

Repayment parameters 7

Typical graduate HECS repayments by age 7

The Effects of HECS 9

HECS revenue 9

Effects of HECS on access for the disadvantaged: previous research 11 Effects of HECS on access for the disadvantaged: new evidence 12

Summary and a caution 13

Notes 14 References 14

(3)

ABSTRACT

In Australia in 1989, for the first time in the world, a broadly-based income contingent loan policy for the payment of higher education charges was adopted, when the government introduced the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS). This can be seen to be a watershed in terms of the relationship between economic theory and education policy. Fourteen years later it is timely to revisit the arguments for its introduction and review Australia’s experience with income contingent charging for higher education. That is the purpose of this article.

It is argued that compared to all possible alternatives, income contingent loan arrangements are preferable for both economic and social reasons, so long as the administrative context allows efficient collection of the debt. These points are explained in detail.

The political background to HECS is examined, and the paper considers the implications of the scheme for both revenue and the access of the poor to higher education. It is demonstrated that neither the introduction of the scheme in 1989 nor the radical modifications undertaken in 1997 have had any deleterious consequences for the participation of less advantaged students.

(4)

,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KHUHLVDJHQHUDOFRQVHQVXVDPRQJHFRQRPLVWVWKDWKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJ SROLF\IDFHVDSUREOHPRI³FDSLWDOPDUNHWIDLOXUH´7KLVPHDQVWKDWFRPPHUFLDOEDQNV ZLOOEHUHOXFWDQWWRXQGHUZULWHORDQVIRUHGXFDWLRQWUDLQLQJRURWKHUKXPDQFDSLWDO LQYHVWPHQWVEHFDXVHWKHUHLVQRFROODWHUDOWKDWFRXOGEHVROGLQWKHHYHQWRIGHIDXOWRQ VXFKORDQV

7KHUHDUHPDQ\DSSURDFKHVWRWKLVSUREOHPLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\7KHPRVWFRPPRQ

LQYROYHWDUJHWHGDVVLVWDQFHIRUHGXFDWLRQDOO\TXDOLILHGVWXGHQWVIURPSRRUKRXVHKROGV ZKLFKXVXDOO\WDNHWKHIRUPHLWKHURIPHDQVWHVWHGIHHH[HPSWLRQVRUWKHSURYLVLRQRI JUDQWVRUVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQVWRTXDOLI\LQJVWXGHQWV,WLVDUJXHGEHORZWKDWWKHUHDUH LPSRUWDQWZHDNQHVVHVZLWKERWKW\SHVRISROLF\

$WOHDVWVLQFHWKHVWKHHFRQRPLFVOLWHUDWXUHKDVRIIHUHGDGLIIHUHQWVROXWLRQ LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQV,&/(FRQRPLVWVVXFKDV)ULHGPDQKDYHDUJXHGWKDW WKHFDSLWDOPDUNHWSUREOHPFDQEHDGGUHVVHGE\PDNLQJWKHSD\PHQWRIWXLWLRQIHHVRU RWKHUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQFKDUJHVGHSHQGHQWRQVWXGHQWV¶IXWXUHLQFRPHVUDWKHUWKDQ FXUUHQWIDPLO\LQFRPH7KHHFRQRPLFUDWLRQDOHIRUWKLVDOWHUQDWLYHWRKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ ILQDQFLQJLVFRQVLGHUHGEULHIO\ODWHULQWKLVDUWLFOH

,Q$XVWUDOLDLQIRUWKHILUVWWLPHLQWKHZRUOGDEURDGO\EDVHGLQFRPH FRQWLQJHQWORDQSROLF\IRUWKHSD\PHQWRIKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQFKDUJHVZDVDGRSWHG ZKHQWKHJRYHUQPHQWLQWURGXFHGWKH+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ&RQWULEXWLRQ6FKHPH+(&6 7KLVFDQEHVHHQWREHDZDWHUVKHGLQWHUPVRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQHFRQRPLF WKHRU\DQGHGXFDWLRQSROLF\)RXUWHHQ\HDUVODWHULWLVWLPHO\WRUHYLHZ$XVWUDOLD¶V H[SHULHQFHZLWKLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJLQJIRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ7KDWLVWKHSXUSRVH RIWKLVDUWLFOH

$FRQFHSWXDOGLVFXVVLRQLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQH[SORUHVEULHIO\WKHUHDVRQVZK\DQ LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJLQJV\VWHPLVFRQFHSWXDOO\VXSHULRUWRDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKHV WRKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJ7KLVLVIROORZHGLQ6HFWLRQE\DGHVFULSWLRQRIWKH FLUFXPVWDQFHVOHDGLQJWRWKHDGRSWLRQRI+(&6LQ$XVWUDOLD6HFWLRQFRQVLGHUV LVVXHVRIRSHUDWLRQRIWKHVFKHPHIRFXVVLQJRQWKHQDWXUHDQGWLPHVWUHDPRI VWXGHQWV¶UHSD\PHQWV7KHHIIHFWVRI+(&6PRVWLPSRUWDQWO\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH DFFHVVRIGLVDGYDQWDJHGVWXGHQWVDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQ6HFWLRQ(QRXJKWLPHKDVQRZ HODSVHGIRUXVHIXOMXGJHPHQWVWREHPDGHDERXWWKHDSSDUHQWVXFFHVVRIWKHVFKHPH DQGWKHFRQFOXGLQJGLVFXVVLRQH[SORUHVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUVXFKDSSURDFKHVWREH DGRSWHGHOVHZKHUH,WLVDSSDUHQWWKDWWKH$XVWUDOLDQSROLF\KDVEHHQYHU\VXFFHVVIXO EXWDPDMRUTXDOLILFDWLRQLVRIIHUHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRLWVDGRSWLRQLQRWKHULQVWLWXWLRQDO FRQWH[WV

&RQFHSWXDOLVVXHVZKDWLVWKHULJKWIRUPRIJRYHUQPHQWDVVLVWDQFH"

*RYHUQPHQWVKDYHPDQ\FKRLFHVFRQFHUQLQJKRZWRILQDQFHKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ,Q ZKDWIROORZVLWLVDVVXPHGILUVWWKDWWKHUHLVDFDVHIRUSXEOLFVXEVLGLHVIRUKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQEXWVHFRQGWKDWWKHUHVKRXOGDOVREHDSULYDWHFRQWULEXWLRQWKURXJKVRPH IRUPRIFKDUJLQJDQGVXEVLGLHVVKRXOGEHOHVVWKDQWKHIXOOPDUJLQDOFRVWVRIKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQ*LYHQWKHVHDVVXPSWLRQVWKHEDVLFTXHVWLRQDGGUHVVHGLVZKDWIRUPRI

(5)

JRYHUQPHQWDVVLVWDQFHVKRXOGEHSURYLGHGWRSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVZKRDUHXQDEOHWR SD\"

7KHHVVHQWLDOUHDVRQWKDWJRYHUQPHQWVDUHLQYROYHGLQWKLVSURFHVVLVWKDWLQWKH DEVHQFHRILQWHUYHQWLRQWKHFDSLWDOPDUNHWZLOOQRWRIIHUORDQVWRILQDQFHWKH

SDUWLFLSDWLRQRIWKHSRRU7KLVLVWKHFULWLFDOLVVXHGHILQLQJWKHUROHRIWKHSXEOLFVHFWRU LQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJ7KHUHDUHWKUHHEURDGDSSURDFKHVXSIURQWIHHVZLWK PHDQVWHVWHGVFKRODUVKLSVXSIURQWIHHVZLWKJRYHUQPHQWVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQVDQG XQLYHUVDOO\DYDLODEOHLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQV:KDWQRZIROORZVVXPPDULVHVWKH EHQHILWVDQGFRVWVRIWKHVHDOWHUQDWLYHV

8SIURQWIHHVZLWKPHDQVWHVWHGVFKRODUVKLSV

$JRYHUQPHQWFRXOGUHDFWWRWKHFDSLWDOPDUNHWSUREOHPE\RIIHULQJH[HPSWLRQV IURPSD\PHQWIHHVFKRODUVKLSVWRVRPHSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQW(OLJLELOLW\FDQWDNH PDQ\IRUPVZLWKWKHPRVWFRPPRQEHLQJEDVHGRQPHDQVWHVWVRIIDPLO\LQFRPH :KLOHVXFKDQDSSURDFKKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRDVVLVWVRPHSRRUSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVLW LVQRWQHFHVVDULO\JRRGSROLF\IRUWZRUHDVRQV

)LUVWPHDQVWHVWHGVFKRODUVKLSVFRPELQHGZLWKXSIURQWIHHVKDYHWKHIROORZLQJ SUREOHP6RPHSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVQRWTXDOLI\LQJIRUH[HPSWLRQPD\IDFHD VLWXDWLRQLQZKLFKWKHLUIDPLOLHVZLOOQRWEHSUHSDUHGWRSD\WKHIHHVIRUH[DPSOHLI WKHUHDUHGLVDJUHHPHQWVEHWZHHQIDPLO\PHPEHUVFRQFHUQLQJWKHYDOXHRI

XQGHUWDNLQJKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ0HDQVWHVWLQJRIHOLJLELOLW\LPSOLHVWKDWVRPH

LQGLYLGXDOVLQWHUHVWHGLQDQGZLWKWKHFDSDFLW\WREHQHILWIURPKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQZLOO EHH[FOXGHG

$VHFRQGSROLF\VKRUWFRPLQJRIVHOHFWLYHIHHH[HPSWLRQUHODWHVWROLIHWLPHLQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ7KHPDMRULW\RIVWXGHQWVZLOOHYHQWXDOO\EHLQUHFHLSWRIUHODWLYHO\KLJK OLIHWLPHLQFRPHV)HHH[HPSWLRQVFDQWKHUHIRUHEHVHHQDVUHJUHVVLYHDQ\IRUPRI IHHH[HPSWLRQRIIHUVLPSRUWDQWEHQHILWVWRWKRVHVXEVLGLVHGWKHPDMRULW\RIZKRP DUHFRQVLGHUDEO\PRUHDGYDQWDJHGWKDQWKHDYHUDJHWD[SD\HUVSURYLGLQJWKHVXEVLG\

,QGHHGWKHFDVHIRUDFKDUJHUHVWVRQWKLVEDVLFHTXLW\LVVXH

8SIURQWIHHVZLWKJRYHUQPHQWVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQV

$GLIIHUHQWVROXWLRQWRWKHFDSLWDOPDUNHWSUREOHPLVXVHGLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVIRU H[DPSOH&DQDGDDQGPDQ\SDUWVRIWKH86DQGLQYROYHVJRYHUQPHQWDVVLVWHGEDQN ORDQVEHLQJDYDLODEOHWRVWXGHQWVIURPORZIDPLO\LQFRPHV3XEOLFVHFWRUVXEVLGLHVLQ WKHVHFRXQWULHVWDNHWZRIRUPVSD\PHQWRILQWHUHVWRQWKHGHEWEHIRUHDVWXGHQW JUDGXDWHVDQGJXDUDQWHHGUHSD\PHQWRIWKHGHEWWRWKHEDQNLQWKHHYHQWRIGHIDXOW

7KLVIRUPRIDVVLVWDQFHVHHPVWRDGGUHVVWKHFDSLWDOPDUNHWIDLOXUHSUREOHPLQWKDW EDQNVZLOOQRWEHFRQFHUQHGZLWKVWXGHQWV¶FROODWHUDOEHFDXVHWKHJRYHUQPHQWWDNHV RYHUDOOWKHULVNVDQGFRVWVRIGHIDXOW+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOVLJQLILFDQWSUREOHPV QRZFRQVLGHUHG

7KHILUVWLQDGHTXDF\RIJRYHUQPHQWJXDUDQWHHGEDQNORDQVUHODWHVWRWKHIDFWWKDWORDQ HOLJLELOLW\LVW\SLFDOO\PHDQVWHVWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIIDPLO\LQFRPH7KLVUDLVHVWKH LPSRUWDQWLVVXHH[SODLQHGDERYHRIWKHVKDULQJRIILQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVZLWKLQIDPLOLHV 7KLVSUREOHPFRXOGEHDGGUHVVHGE\PDNLQJWKHORDQVDYDLODEOHWRDOOSURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWVVLQFHWKHQWKHVKDULQJRIILQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVZLWKLQIDPLOLHVEHFRPHV

(6)

LUUHOHYDQWWRDVWXGHQW¶VFDSDFLW\WRSD\IHHV+RZHYHUGHIDXOWJXDUDQWHHVWREDQNV DUHH[SHQVLYHEHFDXVHRIWKHUHODWLYHO\KLJKSUREDELOLWLHVRIGHIDXOWDQGWKLVKDV HQVXUHGWKDWWKH\DUHW\SLFDOO\QRWXQLYHUVDOO\DYDLODEOH,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKH IDFWWKDWJRYHUQPHQWVJXDUDQWHHGHIDXOWFRYHUDJHLVOLNHO\WRPLQLPLVHWKHHIIRUWWKDW EDQNVSXWLQWRORDQUHFRYHU\ZLWKWKLVLQWXUQOHDGLQJWRGHIDXOWUDWHVWKDWDUHKLJKHU WKDQZRXOGRWKHUZLVHEHWKHFDVH

7KHVHFRQGLVVXHLVWKDWVRPHSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVTXDOLI\LQJIRUORDQDVVLVWDQFHZLOO EHXQZLOOLQJWRWDNHRXWDORDQ7KHPDMRULVVXHLVWKDWUHSD\PHQWVLQPRVWVWXGHQW ORDQVFKHPHVDUHIL[HGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHWLPHDOORZHGIRUUHSD\PHQWDQGDUHWKXV QRWVHQVLWLYHWRDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VIXWXUHILQDQFLDOFLUFXPVWDQFHV7KXVERUURZHUVZKR FDQQRWPHHWWKHVHUHSD\PHQWVZLOOLQFXUWKHSHQDOWLHVRIGHIDXOW7KHPDMRUSHQDOW\

UHODWHVWRWKHGDPDJHWRWKHJUDGXDWH¶VFUHGLWUHSXWDWLRQDQGWKXVKLVRUKHUHOLJLELOLW\

IRURWKHUORDQVVXFKDVDKRPHPRUWJDJH

,QFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQV

$WKLUGDSSURDFKWRWKHKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJSUREOHPLQYROYHVWKHXQLYHUVDO SURYLVLRQRILQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQV7KLVSROLF\KDVVHYHUDODGYDQWDJHVRYHUERWK VFKRODUVKLSDQGEDQNVXEVLGLVHGORDQV

)LUVWJLYHQXQLYHUVDOLW\LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQVDYRLGWKHLQWUDIDPLO\VKDULQJLVVXH ,QGLYLGXDOVLQWHUHVWHGLQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQFDQFKRRVHWRSDUWLFLSDWHZLWKRXWUHIHUHQFH WRHLWKHUIHHH[HPSWLRQVRUEDQNORDQHOLJLELOLW\7KLVKDVWKHDGYDQWDJHRIDYRLGLQJ WKHFRPSOH[LWLHVRIPHDQVWHVWLQJRQWKHEDVLVRIIDPLO\LQFRPHDQGDVVHWV6HFRQG VLQFHUHSD\PHQWDUUDQJHPHQWVGHSHQGRQDSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQW¶VIXWXUHFDSDFLW\WR SD\,&/KDYHQRGHIDXOWULVNVIRUERUURZHUV7KLVLVWKHHVVHQWLDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFRI LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQF\±WKHFRQVLGHUDEOHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ LQYHVWPHQWVDUHDVVXPHGE\WKHOHQGLQJDJHQWWKHJRYHUQPHQW7KLUGXQOLNHRWKHU SRVVLEOHJRYHUQPHQWLQWHUYHQWLRQVLQHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQV FDQEHGHVLJQHGWREHSURJUHVVLYHLQDOLIHWLPHLQFRPHFRQWH[W7KDWLVVXFKVFKHPHV FDQEHRUJDQLVHGLQDZD\WKDWUHVXOWVLQJUDGXDWHVZLWKUHODWLYHO\KLJKIXWXUHLQFRPHV UHSD\LQJPRUHWKDQGHEWRUVZLWKUHODWLYHO\ORZOLIHWLPHLQFRPHV2QHZD\WRPDNH VXUHWKLVKDSSHQVLVWRFKDUJHOHVVWKDQDPDUNHWUDWHRILQWHUHVWRQWKHGHEW

,QFRPHFRQWLQJHQWUHSD\PHQWDUUDQJHPHQWVDUHQRWDOZD\VVXSHULRUWRDOWHUQDWLYHV 2QHPDMRULVVXHFRQFHUQVDGPLQLVWUDWLRQDQGWKHFROOHFWLRQPHFKDQLVPFRQVLGHUHG IXUWKHUEHORZ$QLPSRUWDQWSRLQWLVWKDWLIDFRXQWU\¶VLQVWLWXWLRQVDUHVXFKDVWR SUHFOXGHUHODWLYHO\HIILFLHQWLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFROOHFWLRQRIGHEWWKHQRWKHU

DSSURDFKHVWRILQDQFLQJDUHSUHIHUDEOHHYHQWKRXJKWKH\PD\EHFRQFHSWXDOO\LQIHULRU WR,&/

,PSOLFDWLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWILQDQFLQJDSSURDFKHV

7KLVVXPPDU\RILPSOLFDWLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWSXEOLFVHFWRUILQDQFLQJDSSURDFKHVWR KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQVXJJHVWVWKDWXQLYHUVDOLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFROOHFWLRQRIVWXGHQW FKDUJHVKDVLPSRUWDQWDGYDQWDJHVRYHUWKHPRUHXVXDOIRUPVRIJRYHUQPHQWDVVLVWDQFH LQWKLVDUHD+RZHYHUWKLVLVQRWWRVXJJHVWWKDWDQLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHSROLF\LV DOZD\VVXSHULRUWRVFKRODUVKLSVRUVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQSURYLVLRQRIVWXGHQWFKDUJLQJ DVVLVWDQFH,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWLQVRPHFLUFXPVWDQFHVLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQVIRU KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQPLJKWEHYHU\SRRUSROLF\LQGHHG±IRUH[DPSOHZKHQLWLVQRW SRVVLEOHWRFROOHFWWKHGHEW

(7)

1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHDERYHGLVFXVVLRQKLJKOLJKWVWKHUHDOSRVVLELOLW\WKDWLQFRPH

FRQWLQJHQWORDQVIRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQKDYHSRWHQWLDOO\GHVLUDEOHSURSHUWLHV,QWKHOLJKW RIWKLVLWLVDSSURSULDWHWRFRQVLGHU$XVWUDOLD¶VVSHFLDOH[SHULHQFHZLWKDQLQFRPH FRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHSROLF\IRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ

$XVWUDOLDQXQLYHUVLW\ILQDQFLQJLQKLVWRULFDOFRQWH[W

WR

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

7KHUHYHQXHUDLVHGIURP+($&ZDVWULYLDOLQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHWRWDOFRVWVRIKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQ±DPRXQWLQJWRRQO\DURXQGWKUHHSHUFHQWRIWHDFKLQJFRVWV,Q WD[SD\HUVVWLOOSURYLGHGSUDFWLFDOO\DOOWKHILQDQFHIRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ$WWKLVWLPHD FRQMXQFWLRQRIIRUFHVPDGHLWLQHYLWDEOHWKDWWKHJRYHUQPHQWZRXOGVKLIWPRUHRIWKH FRVWVRIKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQWRVWXGHQWV7KHVHIRUFHVZHUHDVIROORZV

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

DOOWD[SD\HUV\HWVWXGHQWVERWKFDPHIURPUHODWLYHO\SULYLOHJHGEDFNJURXQGVDQGDV JUDGXDWHVWKH\UHFHLYHGUHODWLYHO\KLJKSHUVRQDOHFRQRPLFEHQHILWV,WLVLPSRUWDQWWR UHFRUGWKDW3HWHU:DOVKDQG-RKQ'DZNLQVZHUHWKHQUHVSHFWLYHO\LQFKDUJHRIWKH FULWLFDO0LQLVWULHVRI)LQDQFHDQG+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ

,QWURGXFWLRQRI+(&6

,Q-RKQ'DZNLQVLQYLWHGRQHRIWKHDXWKRUVRIWKLVDUWLFOHWRSUHSDUHDUHSRUW RXWOLQLQJWKHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWRWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDµXVHU SD\V¶KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQV\VWHPIRU$XVWUDOLD7KHUHSRUWSUHVHQWHGWRWKHPLQLVWHULQ 2FWREHUSUHVHQWHGDQDO\VHVRIVHYHUDOILQDQFLQJPHFKDQLVPVLQFOXGLQJXS IURQWIHHVZLWKVFKRODUVKLSVXSIURQWIHHVZLWKJRYHUQPHQWVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQV DQGDQLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHV\VWHP7KHSDSHUUHFRPPHQGHGWKHODVWRIWKHVH

(8)

ZLWKUHSD\PHQWVEHLQJPDGHYLDWKHGLUHFWWD[V\VWHP'HWDLOVZHUHSURYLGHGRIKRZ VXFKDV\VWHPPLJKWZRUNLQFOXGLQJSRVVLEOHIHHOHYHOVDQGUHSD\PHQWSDUDPHWHUV

7KH0LQLVWHUEHOLHYHGWKDWWKLVUHSRUWZRXOGKDYHDGLIILFXOWUHFHSWLRQIRUWKUHH UHDVRQV)LUVWWKH$XVWUDOLDQ/DERU3DUW\LQJRYHUQPHQWKDGDEROLVKHGXQLYHUVLW\IHHV LQDQGWKLVKDGKDSSHQHGXQGHUWKHODUJHUWKDQOLIH/DERULFRQIRUPHU3ULPH 0LQLVWHU*RXJK:KLWODP6HFRQGDWWKDWWLPHWKH/DERU3DUW\SODWIRUPLQFOXGHGD VWDWHPHQWWRWKHHIIHFWWKDWµDOOHGXFDWLRQVKRXOGEHIUHHRIFKDUJH¶7KLUGWKHLQFRPH FRQWLQJHQWSD\PHQWV\VWHPUHFRPPHQGHGZDVERWKUDGLFDODQGXQWHVWHGWKHUHZDVQR VLPLODUVFKHPHLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\DQGWKXVQRHPSLULFDORUSROLWLFDOEDVLVWRDVVHVVLWV OLNHO\HFRQRPLFVRFLDODQGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQV

0LQLVWHU'DZNLQV¶UHVSRQVHZDVWRVHWXSDFRPPLWWHHFKDLUHGE\DSRSXODUIRUPHU VWDWH/DERUSUHPLHU1HYLOOH:UDQWRH[DPLQHWKHUHODWLYHPHULWVRISRWHQWLDORSWLRQV ,WZDVFOHDUIURPWKHWHUPVRIUHIHUHQFHWKDWWKHJRYHUQPHQW¶VLQWHQWZDVWRVHWWKH VFHQHIRUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIFKDUJHV,Q0D\WKH:UDQFRPPLWWHH

&RPPRQZHDOWKRI$XVWUDOLDUHFRPPHQGHGWKDWDOO$XVWUDOLDQXQGHUJUDGXDWHV VKRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRSD\DXQLIRUPFKDUJHZLWKWKHWLPLQJDQGOHYHORISD\PHQW EHLQJGHSHQGHQWRQLQFRPH7KLVEHFDPHSROLF\LQZLWKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRID FKDUJHRI$SHU\HDUURXJKO\WRSHUFHQWRIDYHUDJHXQLWFRVWV7KLV FRXOGEHSDLGHLWKHUDVDQµXSIURQW¶IHHLQZKLFKFDVHWKHFKDUJHZDVGLVFRXQWHGRU VWXGHQWVFRXOGGHIHUSD\PHQWXQWLODIWHUJUDGXDWLRQ±ZKHQWKHFKDUJHZRXOGEH FROOHFWHGRQDQLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWEDVLVWKURXJKWKHWD[V\VWHP7KLVIHDWXUHRIWKH +LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ&RQWULEXWLRQ6FKHPH+(&6ZDVDWWKDWWLPHXQLTXH

LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\,QWKHLQFRPHWKUHVKROGIRUUHSD\PHQWZDV$SHU DQQXPDURXQG$LQWHUPV$WWKLVOHYHORILQFRPHJUDGXDWHVKDGWRSD\

SHUFHQWRIWKHLUWD[DEOHLQFRPHHDFK\HDUZLWKSD\PHQWVULVLQJWRRUSHUFHQWDW KLJKHUOHYHOVRILQFRPH7KHVHSURSRUWLRQVKDYHVLQFHEHHQLQFUHDVHGDVVKRZQ EHORZ

/DERUORVWSRZHULQEXWWKHQHZ&RQVHUYDWLYHJRYHUQPHQWPDLQWDLQHGWKH HVVHQFHRI+(&6+RZHYHULQFKDUJHOHYHOVZHUHLQFUHDVHGE\DERXWSHU FHQWRQDYHUDJHGLIIHUHQWLDOFKDUJHVE\FRXUVHZHUHLQWURGXFHGDQGWKHILUVWLQFRPH WKUHVKROGDWZKLFKJUDGXDWHVEHJDQWRUHSD\WKHLUORDQVZDVGHFUHDVHGWRDURXQG

$SHUDQQXP6HH&KDSPDQDQGIRUDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHVH FKDQJHV

+(&6KDVEHHQLQRSHUDWLRQQRZIRU\HDUVDQGLWLVWKXVWLPHO\WRH[DPLQHLWV RSHUDWLRQDQGHIIHFWV,QDQWLFLSDWLRQRIZKDWIROORZVLWLVLQVWUXFWLYHWRQRWHWKDW +(&6LVGLIIHUHQWLQLPSRUWDQWUHVSHFWVWRFRQYHQWLRQDOKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQVWXGHQWORDQ VFKHPHV7KHVHGLIIHUHQFHVDUHQRZQRWHG

(9)

+(&6FRPSDUHGWRFRQYHQWLRQDOVWXGHQWORDQVFKHPHV

+(&6DVLWQRZH[LVWVLVDVWXGHQWORDQVFKHPHDQGZDVPRWLYDWHGE\WKHVDPHVRUW RIFRQFHUQVDVXQGHUSLQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLDOVXSSRUWPHFKDQLVPVRIRWKHU FRXQWULHV+RZHYHU+(&6LVRSHUDWLRQDOO\GLVWLQFWFRPSDUHGZLWKVWXGHQWORDQ VFKHPHVLQPRVWRWKHUFRXQWULHVZKLFKRIIHUZKDWDUHRIWHQFDOOHGµPRUWJDJHW\SH¶

ORDQV7KHREYLRXVGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ+(&6DQGQRUPDOVWXGHQWORDQVFKHPHVLVWKDW +(&6UHSD\PHQWVGHSHQGRQIRUPHUVWXGHQWV¶LQFRPHV7KLVLVWKHGHILQLQJ

FKDUDFWHULVWLFRIWKHSROLF\

6HFRQGVXEVLGLVHGEDQNORDQVFKHPHVRIRWKHUFRXQWULHVW\SLFDOO\RIIHUDVVLVWDQFH WRDPLQRULW\RIVWXGHQWVZLWKHOLJLELOLW\GHSHQGLQJRQDUDQJHRIIDFWRUVLQFOXGLQJ IDPLO\LQFRPHDQGDJH,QFRQWUDVWWKHDYDLODELOLW\RILQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWSD\PHQWRI IHHVWKURXJK+(&6KDVQRHOLJLELOLW\FULWHULRQ±LWLVRIIHUHGWRDOOSURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWV7KDWLVQRPHDQVWHVWLQJRURWKHUHOLJLELOLW\FULWHULDDUHQHFHVVDU\6WXGHQWV ZLVKLQJWRDYRLGWKHGHEWFDQSD\WKHIHHXSIURQWDQGUHFHLYHDGLVFRXQWRULJLQDOO\

ODWHULQFUHDVHGWRSHUFHQW7KHHIIHFWVRIWKLVRQUHYHQXHDUHFRQVLGHUHG EHORZ

7KLUGVWXGHQWORDQVV\VWHPVLQPRVWFRXQWULHVJHQHUDOO\RIIHUILQDQFLDODVVLVWDQFHWR VWXGHQWVIRUWZRVHSDUDWHSXUSRVHVWKHSD\PHQWRIXSIURQWWXLWLRQFKDUJHVDQG LQFRPHVXSSRUW+RZHYHU+(&6LVRQO\DERXWWKHUHSD\PHQWRIGHIHUUHGWXLWLRQ FKDUJHV7KLVPHDQVWKDWDVVHVVPHQWRILWVHIIHFWVVKRXOGEHXQGHUWDNHQZLWKRXW UHIHUHQFHWRWKHLQFRPHVXSSRUWSRWHQWLDORILQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQPHFKDQLVPV,W VKRXOGEHUHFRJQLVHGWKDWVXFKV\VWHPVFDQHDVLO\EHH[WHQGHGWRFRYHULQFRPH VXSSRUWIRUDQH[DPLQDWLRQRIWKLVLVVXHVHH&KDSPDQ

:KDW+(&60HDQVIRU6WXGHQWV

&KDUJHOHYHOV

6WXGHQWV LQWHQGLQJ WR HQURO LQ $XVWUDOLDQ XQLYHUVLWLHV LQ IDFHG WXLWLRQ FKDUJHV WKDWYDULHGE\FRXUVH7KHEDQGVDUHQRZVKRZQLQ7DEOH

7DEOH

+(&6&RVWVE\%DQG

+(&6%DQG +(&6&RVWIRU (DFK)XOOWLPH

\HDU$

'LVFLSOLQHV

%DQG

$UWV +XPDQLWLHV 6RFLDO 6WXGLHV

%HKDYLRXUDO 6FLHQFHV (GXFDWLRQ 9LVXDO3HUIRUPLQJ$UWV1XUVLQJ-XVWLFHDQG /HJDO6WXGLHV

%DQG

0DWKHPDWLFV &RPSXWLQJ RWKHU +HDOWK 6FLHQFHV $JULFXOWXUH5HQHZDEOH 5HVRXUFHV

%XLOW (QYLURQPHQW $UFKLWHFWXUH 6FLHQFHV (QJLQHHULQJ 3URFHVVLQJ $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ

%XVLQHVVDQG(FRQRPLFV

%DQG

/DZ 0HGLFLQH 0HGLFDO 6FLHQFH 'HQWLVWU\

'HQWDO6HUYLFHVDQG9HWHULQDU\6FLHQFH

6RXUFH&RPPRQZHDOWK'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ7UDLQLQJDQG<RXWK$IIDLUV+(&6<RXU 4XHVWLRQV$QVZHUHG

(10)

7KHVHFKDUJHVPHDQWKDW$UWVJUDGXDWHVZKRFRPSOHWHWKHLUFRXUVHLQWKUHH

\HDUVZRXOGLQFXUD+(&6GHEWRIEHWZHHQ$DQG$D6FLHQFH JUDGXDWHDGHEWRIMXVWRYHU$DQGD/DZJUDGXDWHW\SLFDOO\DIRXU\HDU FRXUVHDURXQG$7KHVHGHEWVDUHLQGH[HGWRLQIODWLRQWKH&RQVXPHU3ULFH ,QGH[DQGWKXVWKHUHLVD]HURUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHRQWKHGHEW

5HSD\PHQWSDUDPHWHUV

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

7KHPDMRULW\RIVWXGHQWVFKRRVHWRGHIHUSD\PHQWRIWKH+(&6FKDUJHDQGIRUWKHP UHSD\PHQWVFRPPHQFHZKHQLQGLYLGXDODQQXDOLQFRPHH[FHHGVDPLQLPXPWKUHVKROG OHYHO,QWKHWD[DWLRQ\HDUWKLVPLQLPXPWKUHVKROGZDV$SHU DQQXPRUDERXWSHUFHQWRI$XVWUDOLDQDYHUDJHZHHNO\HDUQLQJV&XUUHQW UHSD\PHQWFRQGLWLRQVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH

7DEOH

+(&6,QFRPH7KUHVKROGVDQG5HSD\PHQW5DWHV

+(&65HSD\PHQW,QFRPHVLQWKH 5DQJH$

3HUFHQWRI,QFRPH$SSOLHG WR5HSD\PHQW

%HORZ 1LO

±

±

±

±

DQGDERYH

6RXUFH$XVWUDOLDQ7D[DWLRQ2IILFH5HSD\LQJ\RXU+(&6GHEW

:KDWWKHVHSDUDPHWHUVPHDQIRUW\SLFDOJUDGXDWHVLVQRZGHVFULEHG

7\SLFDOJUDGXDWH+(&6UHSD\PHQWVE\DJH

,WLVLQVWUXFWLYHWRLOOXVWUDWHWKHHIIHFWRIWKHVHFKDUJHOHYHOVDQGUHSD\PHQWSDUDPHWHUV RQWKHDIWHUWD[LQFRPHVRIJUDGXDWHVE\DJH,QZKDWIROORZVWKH+(&6

(11)

UHSD\PHQWSDUDPHWHUVKDYHEHHQDSSOLHGIRUPDOHDQGIHPDOHVWXGHQWVDVVXPLQJ WKH\EHJLQDIRXU\HDU6FLHQFHGHJUHHDWDJHJUDGXDWLQJDWDJHDQGDIWHU JUDGXDWLRQWDNHDIXOOWLPHMREHDUQLQJWKHDYHUDJHLQFRPHE\DJHRIJUDGXDWHVRI WKHLUVH[7KHHDUQLQJVIXQFWLRQGDWDKDYHEHHQGHULYHGIURPWKH$XVWUDOLDQ%XUHDXRI 6WDWLVWLFV,QFRPHDQG+RXVHKROG6XUYH\XSGDWHGWR$XVWUDOLDQGROODUV 7KHUHVXOWVIRUPDOHVDQGIHPDOHVUHVSHFWLYHO\DUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUHVDQG

)LJXUH

(DUQLQJV%HIRUHDQG$IWHU+(&60DOHV$

$JH

$\U

*URVV,QFRPH

$IWHU+(&6

6RXUFH6HHIRRWQRWH

(12)

)LJXUH

(DUQLQJV%HIRUHDQG$IWHU+(&6)HPDOHV$

$JH

$\U

*URVV,QFRPH

$IWHU+(&6

6RXUFH6HHIRRWQRWH

7KHGDWDRI)LJXUHVDQGLOOXVWUDWHWKHIROORZLQJPDOHVFLHQFHJUDGXDWHVHDUQLQJ DYHUDJHJUDGXDWHLQFRPHVZLOOUHSD\+(&6LQDERXWRU\HDUVHTXLYDOHQWIHPDOHV ZLOOUHSD\+(&6DIWHUDERXW\HDUV7KHDERYHGDWDDUHRIIHUHGWRLOOXVWUDWHW\SLFDO +(&6UHSD\PHQWV2IFRXUVHWKHUHZLOOEHDODUJHYDULDWLRQLQUHSD\PHQWSURILOHV JLYHQWKDWDQQXDOFRQWULEXWLRQVGHSHQGRQLQGLYLGXDOJUDGXDWHV¶LQFRPHV0LFUR VLPXODWLRQDQDO\VLVRIUHSD\PHQWSURILOHVRI+(&6LOOXVWUDWHVWKLVSRLQW6HH+DUGLQJ

7KH(IIHFWVRI+(&6

,QWHUPVRISROLF\DVVHVVPHQWWKHUHDUHWZRFULWLFDOTXHVWLRQVWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRI +(&6IRUWKHOHYHODQGVWUHDPRIJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHDQGWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH VFKHPHIRUDFFHVVWRKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQRIWKHVRFLDOO\GLVDGYDQWDJHG7KHVHDUHQRZ FRQVLGHUHGLQWXUQ

+(&6UHYHQXH

7KHILUVWLVVXHUHODWHVWRWKHVWUHDPRIUHYHQXHUHFHLYHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWIURP +(&6$VQRWHGDERYHVWXGHQWVKDYHWKHFKRLFHRISD\LQJWKHLU+(&6FKDUJHVXSRQ HQUROPHQWRUWKURXJKWKHWD[V\VWHP)LJXUHVKRZVWKHUHYHQXHUHFHLYHGE\WKH JRYHUQPHQWIURPWRDQGSURMHFWLRQVRIIXWXUHSD\PHQWVWR

(13)

)LJXUH

$FWXDODQG3URMHFWHG+(&65HYHQXH$

P

8S)URQWDQG9ROXQWDU\5HSD\PHQWV

&RPSXOVRU\5HSD\PHQWV 7RWDO

6RXUFH&RPPRQZHDOWK'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\

8SIURQWµYROXQWDU\¶SD\PHQWVDQGUHSD\PHQWVWKURXJKWKHWD[V\VWHP

µFRPSXOVRU\¶DUHVKRZQVHSDUDWHO\LQWKH)LJXUH,WLVRILQWHUHVWWKDWHYHQLQWKHILUVW

\HDURI+(&6DURXQG$PLOOLRQZDVUDLVHGIURPXSIURQWSD\PHQWVHQFRXUDJHG E\WKHWKHQSHUFHQWGLVFRXQW7KHSROLF\LPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKLVDUHVLJQLILFDQWLW VKRZVWKDWWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDQLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHVFKHPHFDQSURYLGH VXEVWDQWLDOUHYHQXHWRJRYHUQPHQWVTXLWHTXLFNO\

1RWVXUSULVLQJO\UHSD\PHQWVWKURXJKWKHWD[V\VWHPZHUHPRGHVWLQWKHHDUO\\HDUVRI WKHRSHUDWLRQRI+(&67KLVLVEHFDXVHYHU\IHZJUDGXDWHVHDUQHGLQFRPHVKLJK HQRXJKWRUHTXLUHUHSD\PHQW+RZHYHULQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWUHSD\PHQWVLQFUHDVHG VXEVWDQWLDOO\DVPRUHJUDGXDWHVEHFDPHHOLJLEOHIRUUHSD\PHQWWKUHVKROGVZHUH ORZHUHGDQGDKLJKHUSURSRUWLRQDQGQXPEHURIJUDGXDWHVIDFHGKLJKHUUHSD\PHQW UDWHV

7DNHQWRJHWKHUXSIURQWIHHDQGLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWUHSD\PHQWVWKURXJKWKHWD[

V\VWHPQRZUHSUHVHQWDYHU\VLJQLILFDQWDQGJURZLQJSURSRUWLRQRIWKHFRVWRIKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQLQ$XVWUDOLD,QVWXGHQWVSURYLGHGRYHU$PLOOLRQZKLFKLV DURXQGSHUFHQWRIWKHWRWDOUHFXUUHQWFRVWV,QLWLVSURMHFWHGWKDWWKLV SURSRUWLRQZLOOULVHWRRYHUSHUFHQW

(14)

(IIHFWVRI+(&6RQDFFHVVIRUWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHGSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFK

+(&6ZDVGHVLJQHGWRPLQLPLVHWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHLPSRVLWLRQRIDFKDUJHZRXOG SUHFOXGHWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRISRRUSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWV7KLVLVDFULWLFDOLVVXHIRU SROLF\)RUWXQDWHO\WKHUHLVQRZFRQVLGHUDEOHHYLGHQFHRQWKHHIIHFWVRI+(&6RQWKH DFFHVVRIWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHGWRKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ

7ZRDSSURDFKHVKDYHEHHQXVHGLQWKHH[LVWLQJOLWHUDWXUH7KHILUVWKDVEHHQWRDVN SURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVDERXWWKHIDFWRUVVKDSLQJWKHLUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQ GHFLVLRQV&KDSPDQVXPPDULVHVDQXPEHURIVWXGLHVZKLFKW\SLFDOO\VKRZ WKDW+(&6KDVQRWEHHQDGRPLQDQWIDFWRULQIOXHQFLQJLQGLYLGXDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ HLWKHULQDJJUHJDWHRUIRUVWXGHQWVIURPGLVDGYDQWDJHGEDFNJURXQGV

7KHVHFRQGDSSURDFKWRDVVHVVLQJWKHLPSDFWRI+(&6RQWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIWKHSRRU KDVEHHQWRWHVWVWDWLVWLFDOUHODWLRQVRQWKHTXHVWLRQRIZKHWKHURUQRWKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ SDUWLFLSDWLRQEHKDYLRXUGLIIHUHGEHWZHHQVRFLRHFRQRPLFJURXSVDIWHU+(&6ZDV LQWURGXFHGDQGDIWHUWKHFKDQJHVLQWURGXFHGLQ6RPHRIWKHVHDQDO\VHVDUHQRZ GHVFULEHGEULHIO\

$QGUHZVPHDVXUHGFKDQJHVLQSURSRUWLRQVRIILUVW\HDUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ VWXGHQWVIURPUHODWLYHO\SRRUEDFNJURXQGVDVPHDVXUHGE\WKHDYHUDJHLQFRPHRI WKHLUORFDODUHD+LVUHVHDUFKVKRZHGWKDWWKHVKDUHRIVWXGHQWVIURPWKHORZHVW LQFRPHTXDUWLOHGLGQRWFKDQJHDIWHU+(&6FKDUJHVDQGUHSD\PHQWFRQGLWLRQVEHFDPH OHVVJHQHURXVIRUVWXGHQWVLQ$QGUHZVDOVRDQDO\VHGDWWLWXGHVWRGHEWE\

LQGLYLGXDOVDFFRUGLQJWRLQFRPHDQGFRQFOXGHGWKDWSDWWHUQVLQ$XVWUDOLDWHQGWR UHIOHFWDQXUEDQUXUDOGLFKRWRP\UDWKHUWKDQDQ\YDULDWLRQE\LQFRPH$QGUHZV FRQFOXGHGWKDWQHLWKHUKLJKHU+(&6FKDUJHVQRUWKHORZHULQJRIWKHLQFRPH

UHSD\PHQWWKUHVKROGVDIIHFWHGWKHKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQRISRRUJURXSV

2WKHUVWXGLHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIWKHSRRUKDYHXWLOLVHGLQGLYLGXDOO\EDVHG LQFRPHPHDVXUHV/RQJ&DUSHQWHUDQG+D\GHQDQG0DUNV)OHPLQJ/RQJDQG 0F0LOODQXVHSDQHOVRIORQJLWXGLQDOGDWDIURPWKH<RXWKLQ7UDQVLWLRQ6XUYH\

FRQGXFWHGE\WKH$XVWUDOLDQ&RXQFLOIRU(GXFDWLRQDO5HVHDUFKWRLGHQWLI\WKHH[WHQWWR ZKLFKHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQFKDQJHGLQ$XVWUDOLDIURPWKHVWRWKHODWHV 7KHVHVWXGLHVXVHDQLQGLUHFWZHDOWKLQGH[FRQVWUXFWHGIURPUHVSRQVHVE\LQGLYLGXDOV WRTXHVWLRQVDERXWWKHSUHVHQFHRIPDWHULDOSRVVHVVLRQVLQWKHLUKRXVHVDWDURXQGDJH

1RWVXUSULVLQJO\WKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDERYHVWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDWZHDOWKLVVWURQJO\

SRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWRLQGLYLGXDOV¶KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQ:KLOH/RQJHWDO IRXQGDOVRWKDWKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQGLIIHUHQFHVE\ZHDOWKZLGHQHG LQLWLDOO\WKH\VXJJHVWWKDWWKLVWUHQGZDVHYLGHQWLQWKHHDUOLHUFRKRUWVDQGQRW REYLRXVO\UHODWHGWR+(&67KH0DUNVHWDOUHVHDUFKDGGHGDQHZFRKRUWWR WKHVDPHSDQHOVHPSOR\HGE\/RQJHWDO7KHLUUHVHDUFKVXJJHVWVWKDWVRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXVEHFDPHOHVVLPSRUWDQWLQGHWHUPLQLQJKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKHODWH VWKDQZDVWKHFDVHIRUHDUOLHUFRKRUWV7KDWLV+(&6GLGQRWVHHPWREH

DVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZHUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDOSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIUHODWLYHO\SRRUSURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWV

(15)

(IIHFWVRI+(&6RQDFFHVVIRUWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHGQHZHYLGHQFH

7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURIPHWKRGRORJLFDODQGPHDVXUHPHQWTXHVWLRQVLQERWKWKH/RQJHW DODQG0DUNVHWDOH[HUFLVHV7KHVHLVVXHVDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQ&KDSPDQDQG5\DQ LQH[HUFLVHVXVLQJWKHVDPHGDWDVHWV%DFNJURXQGWHFKQLFDOH[SODQDWLRQVDUH QRWDSSRVLWHKHUHZKDWPDWWHUVIRUWKHFXUUHQWH[HUFLVHLVWKDWRXUUHYLVLRQVDOORZ DGGLWLRQDOLQVLJKWVLQWRWKHHIIHFWVRI+(&6RQWKHDFFHVVRISRRUSURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWVDQGWKHVHDUHQRZVXPPDULVHG

:LWKZKDWLVDUJXDEO\DQLPSURYHGDSSURDFK&KDSPDQDQG5\DQDGGUHVVWKH IROORZLQJTXHVWLRQV:KDWZDVWKHOHYHORIXQLYHUVLW\SDUWLFLSDWLRQZLWKUHVSHFWWR IDPLO\ZHDOWKRI\HDUROGVEHIRUHWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRI+(&6DVPHDVXUHGLQ VRPHWLPHDIWHUWKLVDVPHDVXUHGLQDQGDIWHUWKHPDUNHGFKDQJHVWRWKH VFKHPHLQ

)RUHDFK\HDUZHFRQVLGHUHGRQO\\HDUROGVDQGWKHVHJURXSVZHUHFODVVLILHGLQWR WKUHHZHDOWKFDWHJRULHVWKRVHIURPWKHERWWRPTXDUWLOHWKRVHIURPWKHWRSTXDUWLOH DQGWKRVHIURPWKHPLGGOHWZRTXDUWLOHV7KHVHFODVVLILFDWLRQVDOORZHGPHDVXUHPHQW RIWKHSURSRUWLRQRI\RXQJSHRSOHHQUROOHGLQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQIURPGLIIHUHQWZHDOWK EDFNJURXQGV)LJXUHVKRZVWKHUHVXOWV

)LJXUH

3URSRUWLRQRI\HDUROGV8QGHUWDNLQJD'HJUHHE\)DPLO\:HDOWK

/RZHVWTXDUWLOH 0LGGOHTXDUWLOHV 7RSTXDUWLOH

6RXUFH6HHIRRWQRWH

(16)

7KHGDWDRI)LJXUHVKRXOGEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVIROORZV)RUHDFKRIWKH\HDUV DQGWKHEDUVVKRZWKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKRVHDJHGZKRZHUHHQUROOHGLQ KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQIURPWKHWKUHHZHDOWKFDWHJRULHV7KHUHDUHWKUHHVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWV )LUVWEHIRUHWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRI+(&6WKHUHZDVDFOHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ HQUROPHQWLQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDQGPHDVXUHVRIIDPLO\ZHDOWK6SHFLILFDOO\WKH SURSRUWLRQVHQUROOHGIURPWKHORZHVWPLGGOHDQGKLJKHVWJURXSVZHUHUHVSHFWLYHO\

DURXQGDQGSHUFHQW6HFRQGWKHGDWDVKRZWKDWKLJKHUHGXFWLRQ

SDUWLFLSDWLRQUDWHVGLGQRWIDOOIRUVWXGHQWVIURPDQ\IDPLO\ZHDOWKJURXSDIWHUWKH LQWURGXFWLRQRI+(&6(YHQVRWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHSURSRUWLRQRI\RXQJSHRSOH DWWHQGLQJXQLYHUVLW\ZDVFOHDUO\ODUJHUIRUWKRVHIURPWKHPLGGOHDQGKLJKHVWZHDOWK JURXSV7KLUGWKHODUJHFKDQJHVWR+(&6LQWURGXFHGLQKDGQRDGYHUVHHIIHFWV RQSDUWLFLSDWLRQIRUPHPEHUVRIDQ\ZHDOWKJURXSLQGHHGWKHUHZHUHODUJHKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQFUHDVHVIRUWKRVHIURPDOOIDPLO\ZHDOWKEDFNJURXQGV

7KHFRQFOXVLRQVIURPERWKWKHSUHYLRXVDQGQHZUHVHDUFKDUHDVIROORZV L7KHUHODWLYHO\GLVDGYDQWDJHGLQ$XVWUDOLDZHUHOHVVOLNHO\WRDWWHQG

XQLYHUVLW\HYHQZKHQWKHUHZHUHQRVWXGHQWIHHV7KLVSURYLGHVIXUWKHUVXSSRUW IRUWKHYLHZWKDWDQRFKDUJHSXEOLFXQLYHUVLW\V\VWHPWKDWLVILQDQFHGE\DOO WD[SD\HUVLVUHJUHVVLYH

LL7KHLQWURGXFWLRQRI+(&6ZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDJJUHJDWHLQFUHDVHVLQ KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLRQ

LLL+(&6GLGQRWUHVXOWLQGHFUHDVHVLQWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRISURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWVIURPUHODWLYHO\SRRUIDPLOLHVDOWKRXJKWKHDEVROXWHLQFUHDVHVZHUH KLJKHUIRUUHODWLYHO\DGYDQWDJHGVWXGHQWV

LY7KHVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVWR+(&6LQWURGXFHGLQZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK LQFUHDVHVLQWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOVLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUIDPLO\ZHDOWK

6XPPDU\DQGDFDXWLRQ

*RYHUQPHQWLQWHUYHQWLRQLVUHTXLUHGLQWKHILQDQFLQJRIKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ:LWKRXW SXEOLFDVVLVWDQFHWKHUHZLOOEHDGYHUVHHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOFRQVHTXHQFHVWDOHQWHG SRRUSURVSHFWLYHVWXGHQWVZLOOEHXQDEOHWRILQDQFHWKHSD\PHQWRIIHHVDQGWKLV QHFHVVDULO\PHDQVERWKHFRQRPLFZDVWHDQGWKHSHUSHWXDWLRQRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO LQHTXDOLWLHV

7KLVLVJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGDQGKDVUHVXOWHGLQYDULRXVIRUPVRIJRYHUQPHQWILQDQFLDO DVVLVWDQFH6RPHFRXQWULHVFKRRVHWRVXEVLGLVHIXOO\WKHFRVWVRIKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ ZKLOHRWKHUVRIIHUJRYHUQPHQWDVVLVWHGEDQNORDQVWRDSURSRUWLRQRISRWHQWLDOKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDQWV,WKDVEHHQDUJXHGDERYHWKDWIRUUHDVRQVRIHTXLW\DQG HIILFLHQF\WKHVHDSSURDFKHVKDYHVLJQLILFDQWZHDNQHVVHV(FRQRPLFWKHRU\LOOXVWUDWHV WKDWFRQFHSWXDOO\WKHSUHIHUUHGDSSURDFKLVLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJLQJ

6XFKDV\VWHPZDVDGRSWHGLQ$XVWUDOLDLQDQGWKLVFRXQWU\¶VH[SHULHQFHLVWKXV RIVLJQLILFDQWSROLF\LQWHUHVW7KHPDMRUUHVXOWVDUHDVIROORZV)LUVW+(&6KDVUDLVHG DQGFRQWLQXHVWRUDLVHFRQVLGHUDEOHUHYHQXH7KLVKDVEHHQXVHGWRKHOSILQDQFHD ODUJHH[SDQVLRQLQ$XVWUDOLDQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ6HFRQGWKHUHKDYHDSSDUHQWO\EHHQ QRDGYHUVHFRQVHTXHQFHVIRUWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIUHODWLYHO\GLVDGYDQWDJHGSURVSHFWLYH VWXGHQWV,QGHHGWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQRI\RXQJSHRSOHKDVH[SDQGHGIRUPHPEHUVRIDOO VRFLRHFRQRPLFJURXSV

(17)

7KHVHILQGLQJVVWURQJO\SURPRWHWKHFDVHIRURWKHUFRXQWULHVWRDGRSWVLPLODU DUUDQJHPHQWV,QGHHGVLQFHWKLVKDVKDSSHQHGLQGLIIHUHQWIRUPVLQ1HZ

=HDODQGWKH8.*KDQDDQG1DPLELDDQGLVFXUUHQWO\XQGHUDFWLYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQLQ RWKHUVIRUH[DPSOH(WKLRSLD+XQJDU\0DOD\VLDDQG5ZDQGD,QFRPHFRQWLQJHQF\

VHHPVWREHKHUHWRVWD\

1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHUHUHPDLQVDQLPSRUWDQWTXDOLILFDWLRQZKLFKLVUHODWHGWR

DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ$QLQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWORDQDSSURDFKUHTXLUHVWKDWDJRYHUQPHQWLV DEOHWRGRDWOHDVWWZRWKLQJVHIILFLHQWO\)LUVWLQGLYLGXDOVWXGHQWV¶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

1RWHV

:KLOHDVLPLODUH[HUFLVHLVUHSRUWHGLQ&KDSPDQWKHFXUUHQWSDSHURIIHUVERWK DQXSGDWHRIWKDWDQDO\VLVVSHFLILFDOO\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHHIIHFWVRISROLF\FKDQJHV LQWURGXFHGLQDQGQHZUHVHDUFKFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHDFFHVVRIWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHG WRKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ

7KHEDVLVIRUWKLVFDVHLVZHOONQRZQDQGLVH[SODLQHGIXUWKHULQ&KDSPDQ

7KHHYLGHQFHRQGHIDXOWUDWHVIURPVXFKORDQVLOOXVWUDWHVWKHDVVRFLDWHGJRYHUQPHQW FRVWV)RUH[DPSOH+DUULVRQVKRZVWKDWLQWKH86DURXQGSHUFHQWRI VWXGHQWORDQVIRUFROOHJHHGXFDWLRQDUHGHIDXOWHGDQGWKDWWKHSHUFHQWDJHLQFUHDVHVWR DURXQG IRU WZR \HDU 3URSULHWDU\ 6FKRRO ERUURZHUV LH WKRVH WDNLQJ SULYDWH YRFDWLRQDOFRXUVHV

6HH IRU H[DPSOH WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH &DQDGLDQ V\VWHP LQ)LQQLH DQG 6FKZDUW]

%UXFH&KDSPDQDQG7RQ\6DOYDJHSUHSDUHGWKHHVWLPDWHVIRUWKLVSDSHU

5HIHUHQFHV

$QGUHZV/'RHV+(&6'HWHU")DFWRUV$IIHFWLQJ8QLYHUVLW\3DUWLFLSDWLRQ E\/RZ6(6*URXSV+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ'LYLVLRQ2FFDVLRQDO3DSHU)&DQEHUUD 'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ7UDLQLQJDQG<RXWK$IIDLUV

&KDSPDQ%UXFHDQG77&KLDµ)LQDQFLQJKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSULYDWHUDWHVRI UHWXUQDQGH[WHUQDOLWLHVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHWHUWLDU\WD[¶&HQWUHIRU(FRQRPLF 3ROLF\5HVHDUFK'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU1R&DQEHUUD$XVWUDOLDQ1DWLRQDO 8QLYHUVLW\

&KDSPDQ %UXFH $8678'< 7RZDUGV 0RUH )OH[LEOH 5HIRUP&DQEHUUD 'HSDUWPHQWRI(PSOR\PHQW(GXFDWLRQDQG7UDLQLQJ

&KDSPDQ%UXFHDQG6DOYDJH7RQ\µ&KDQJHVLQFRVWVIRU$XVWUDOLDQKLJKHU HGXFDWLRQVWXGHQWVIURPWKHEXGJHW´+RFKVFKXOILQDQ]LHUXQJ+LJKHU

(18)

(GXFDWLRQ)XQGLQJLVVXHRIWKH$XVWULDQ-RXUQDORI3XEOLF3ROLF\

&KDSPDQ%UXFHµ&RQFHSWXDOLVVXHVDQGWKH$XVWUDOLDQH[SHULHQFHZLWK LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHVIRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ¶7KH(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO9RO

&KDSPDQ%UXFHµ$XVWUDOLDQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQILQDQFLQJLVVXHVIRUUHIRUP¶

$XVWUDOLDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ9RO

&KDSPDQ%UXFHDQG&KULV5\DQµ7KHDFFHVVFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKH$XVWUDOLDQ LQFRPHFRQWLQJHQWFKDUJHV\VWHPIRUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ´&HQWUHIRU(FRQRPLF 3ROLF\5HVHDUFK$XVWUDOLDQ1DWLRQDO8QLYHUVLW\PLPHR

&RPPRQZHDOWKRI$XVWUDOLD5HSRUWRIWKH&RPPLWWHHRQ+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ )XQGLQJ&DQEHUUD$XVWUDOLDQ*RYHUQPHQW3ULQWLQJ6HUYLFH

(GZDUGV*HRIIµ7D[LQJIRUPHUVWXGHQWV¶0HOERXUQH/D7UREH8QLYHUVLW\

PLPHR

(GZDUGV0HUHGLWK6RFLDO3ROLF\3XEOLF3ROLF\)URP3ROLF\WR3UDFWLFH 6\GQH\$OOHQ 8QZLQ

)LQQLH5RVVDQG6DXO6FKZDUW]6WXGHQW/RDQVLQ&DQDGD3DVW3UHVHQWDQG )XWXUH:LQQHSHJ&'+RZH,QVWLWXWH

)ULHGPDQ0LOWRQµ7KHUROHRIJRYHUQPHQWLQHGXFDWLRQ´LQ$6RORHG (FRQRPLFVDQGWKH3XEOLF,QWHUHVW1HZ%UXQVZLFN1-5XWJHUV8QLYHUVLW\

3UHVV

+DUGLQJ$QQµ)LQDQFLQJKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDQDVVHVVPHQWRILQFRPH FRQWLQJHQWORDQRSWLRQVDQGUHSD\PHQWSDWWHUQVRYHUWKHOLIHF\FOH¶(GXFDWLRQ (FRQRPLFV9RO

+DUULVRQ0DUNµ'HIDXOWLQ*XDUDQWHHG6WXGHQW/RDQ3URJUDPV¶-RXUQDORI 6WXGHQW)LQDQFLDO$LG9RO

+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ&RXQFLO6L[WK5HSRUWWRWKH1DWLRQDO%RDUGRI(PSOR\PHQW (GXFDWLRQDQG7UDLQLQJRQWKH2SHUDWLRQRI6HFWLRQRIWKH+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ )XQGLQJ$FWDQGWKH+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ&RQWULEXWLRQ6FKHPH&DQEHUUD +LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ&RXQFLO

/RQJ03&DUSHQWHUDQG0+D\GHQ3DUWLFLSDWLRQLQ(GXFDWLRQDQG 7UDLQLQJ±/RQJLWXGLQDO6XUYH\VRI$XVWUDOLDQ<RXWK5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW1R0HOERXUQH$XVWUDOLDQ&RXQFLOIRU(GXFDWLRQDO5HVHDUFK

0DUNV *1 1 )OHPLQJ /RQJ 0 DQG - 0F0LOODQ 3DWWHUQV RI 3DUWLFLSDWLRQLQ<HDUDQG+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQLQ$XVWUDOLD7UHQGVDQG,VVXHV /RQJLWXGLQDO 6XUYH\V RI $XVWUDOLDQ <RXWK 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW 1R 0HOERXUQH

$XVWUDOLDQ&RXQFLOIRU(GXFDWLRQDO5HVHDUFK

Referensi

Dokumen terkait

The results of this study indicate that 1 Profitability has no effect on External Audit Fees, 2 Company Complexity has a significant positive effect on External Audit Fees, 3 Audit