party authoritarian governments, this challenge has frequently been overwhelm- ing”(278). Xi’s track record for the past four-and-half-years does not bode well for his administration’s ability to tackle this formidable challenge.
Willy Lam
Chinese University of Hong Kong
China’s Future, by David Shambaugh. Cambridge: Polity, 2016. ix+203 pp.
US$111.95 (cloth), US$33.95 (paper), US$27.99 (eBook).
China’s future! What is it? No one quite knows what the answer would be. David Shambaugh is upfront on this:“None of us are able to peer into China’s future with any precision or great clarity”(xviii). It is an intriguing question, though, be- cause as a rising power, what China does in the future is likely to have a great im- pact on us all.
Shambaugh prognosticates in the hope that“some insights may result”(xviii).
The result of his probing is a lucidly written book. It is well organized and its interpretations are analytical and nuanced, bearing the hallmarks of an experi- enced astute observer of Chinese politics.
Shambaugh is somewhat “pessimistic”about China’s future, as the Chinese leadership has shown little or no indication that it will loosen its grip on political control of the country, which will make the sustainability of China’s economic growth difficult:“economic success is not attainable absent significant political loosening and liberalization”(53). His assumption is that economic moderniza- tion and a rise in the standard of living will lead at some stage to a societal demand for political democratization. This assumption seems to hold for the development trajectory of many countries, but will it hold for China? That has yet to be tested.
The book’s greatest contribution is the framework that Shambaugh puts for- ward to examine China’s future. This framework consists of four possible“path- ways”(a term used quite effectively): he labels them neo-totalitarianism, hard au- thoritarianism, soft authoritarianism, and semi-democracy. Shambaugh is of the view that China is currently on the hard authoritarianism path. To use a traffic analogy, he sees that the country has now reached a roundabout (a critical junc- ture in its path of development) where it has to decide which of the four path- ways to take in order to move forward.
This framework is elaborated upon in chapter 1, and Shambaugh uses it to ex- amine China’s economy in chapter 2, China’s society (chap. 3), its polity (chap. 4), and its future in a global context (chap. 5, the last chapter). In these chapters, Shambaugh employs the framework of the four pathways more vigorously to an-
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alyze China’s polity than its economy or society. He estimates that“hard Author- itarianism will prevail until the Nineteenth Party Congress in 2017. After that the chances of a return to Soft Authoritarianism will rise”(136), due in the main to a change of China’s top leadership.
On China and the world, Shambaugh anticipates“that China’s regional pos- ture in Asia and (more broadly) internationally will look a lot like a continuation of the current situation—assuming a war does not break out. . . . The possibility of war is not to be discounted. It is, in fact, a distinct possibility”(171–72). The likelihood of this scenario constitutes a source of his pessimism.
Overall, Shambaugh has chosen the approach of an outsider looking into China, rather than an insider looking at China and outwardly. If we were to take the in- sider’s point of view as well, then we might possibly take into consideration the Chi- nese leaders’desire to maintain the political, economic, and social stability of China, the tenacity of the meritocratic system in China’s leadership recruitment and suc- cession, and the effects of the legacy of tradition on Chinese society. This is not to suggest that the four pathways chosen as political indicators lack efficacy, only that they may become more meaningful if cast against the background of the insider’s view.
Shambaugh does not give explicitly clear reasons for choosing the four path- ways to form his analytical framework. They seem to have been taken for granted to ascertain what happens inside the country when looking in from the outside.
His occasional reference to the possible collapse of the regime may raise the eye- brows of the insider.
All this does not amount to any major deficits to the possible future scenarios that Shambaugh has so carefully and diligently laid out. Quite the opposite, he is to be commended for stating his case in such a forthright way. The book deserves a good read and good dissemination.
Gerald Chan
University of Auckland, New Zealand
Forecasting China’s Future: Dominance or Collapse?, by Roger Irvine. Ox- ford: Routledge, 2016. 206 pp. US$148.00/£95.00.
“The future is unknowable and anyone who says otherwise is lying,”journalist Larry Elliott cautioned—a one-sentence preamble preceding a bold prediction of the imminent collapse of China’sfinancial system. Judging by the best-selling books and widely read articles regarding China, Elliott is not the only China watcher to cursorily acknowledge the“thou shall not predict”commandment either implicitly
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