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Science in the Social Sphere: Weather-Modification and Public Response Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2292/575 Authors: Matthewman, Steven David Issue Date: 1999

;Scie,nce in the Social Sphere:

\Meather*Modjfi eation and Public Response

$teveir David Matthevrman

Athesis

submitred

in

frxlfiin@'t

of

therequire_meoh for the-degree of Doortrorateof

Fhilosophy

The

Univerc(y

of

Aucklmd

19W

Abstract

This thesis is organised around two questions: how do we explain planned weather- modification's shifting scientific status, and how do we explain public opposition to weather-modification programmes?

The last four

decades have seen weather- modification _oscillate

wildly

between pseudo-science, orthodox science, and now apparently, bad science. Paradoxically, widespread private scientific scepticism towards weather-modification has been matched

by

wholesale public belief

in

its efficacy.

Weather-modifiers have been accused of causing drought instead of creating rain,

of

ruining harvests rather than encouraging cultivated wealth. Public groups have objected to this most social science on aesthetic, cultural, economic, environmental, legal and theological grounds.

Far from being an interesting aside in meteorological history, weather-modification lurks perpetually on the policy horizon. To therefore ignore the circumstances under which weather-modification was fnst legitimised is foolish, since the recurrence ofthese material conditions could reinstate its scientific position despite scanty evidence of its efficacy. Not only is the current practice of weather-modification a waste of time and money, it postpones pressing decisions regarding water allocation and conservation, and

it annoys a lot of people in the process.

In

the

final

analysis, attempts at weather-modification illustrate many key issues surrounding the relationships between and among science, technology and society, for the weather-modification story tells us important things about the problems that arise when there

is no time

lag between

a

supposed breakthrough and

its

subsequant application, the difficulties which scientists encounter when working

in

politically charged atmospheres, and the problems that follow when such work intrudes upon the public domain.

Acknowledgements

for

Jessica, Sophie, Caitlin and Emma

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors, Professors lan Carter ^and Geoff Austin,

of

the Departrnents

of

Sociology and Physics respectively,

for

their guidance, support and assistance throughout this project. This thesis could not ^have taken place without

them.

Despite the isolation imposed by thesis writing, and the intellectual and financial challenges which accompany it, I do not regret ernbarking upon

a programme ofdoctoral research. The academic rigour and the sense ofhumour ofboth of my supervisors made a difficult process so much easier. Many thanks.

In

some respects supervisors have

to

help

you.

There are other people under ^no obligation to assist you who still choose

to.

For this reason I offer profound ^and heart- felt thanks to the following people: Mr Garry Tee of the Deparfment of Mathematics, and Dr Ravi Arvind Palat and Associate-Professor Nick Perry of the Department

of

Sociology at The University of Auckland.

All

of these people lent time, effort ^and resources. Hopefully ^some day I

will

be able to repay them. Likewise, thanls ^{go to} Dr George Green

of

the Water Research Commission, Pretoria, Neville Beeton

at

The Lowvelder,Nelspruit, and the late Dr Graeme Mather of CloudQuest (Pty), Nelspruit, South Africa. Research in the Republic of South Africa would ^{have been} impoverished,

if

not impossible, were

it

not for their ^generous contributions.

I

would also like to record my appreciation of Professor Daniel R. Headrick and Jean-Louis Brodu. ^I thank Professor Headrick of Roosevelt University, Chicago, the United ^States of America, for commenting upon a draft of Chapter

2. I

thank Jean-Louis, doctoral student at the Laboratoire d'anthropologie visuelle et sonore du monde contemporain, Universiti Paris for commenting upon a draft of Chapter 6. ln addition, I ^thank our Departmental Technician, Justin Leef, for valuable computer assistance throughout my time as a graduate student, and I thank our former Departmental Manager, Gaynor van Beurden, for her assistance in formatting this thesis upon its completion, and for her help and her friendship throughout its composition.

Finally,

I

would like to thank my

family. I

acknowledge the emotional ^and financial support of my parents Dot and Dave Matthewman, ^and my parents-in-law, Nan ^and Mike Gardner, Particular thanks go to Nan Gardner, without whom this final

difficult

year would not have been possible. I thank my wife Jessica, and my daughters Sophie, Caitlin and Emma for their love and patience. I offer my love and this thesis in return.

ul

Table of Contents

Abstract

Acknowledgements

chapter l: Histories of Meteorology

and

weather-Modification

^I

Meteorology:

TheliteratureReviewed ...

I

MeteorologyasScience ...1

Meteorologyasldeology? ....7

MeteorologyasTechnology

.... ...11

Synopsis ...

¹⁴

Weather-Modification: The Literature

Reviewed

. .

.

¹⁵

WhyStudyPlannedWeather-Modificarion? ...

Zl From Pluviculture to Precipitation-Augmentation: Striking the

Spark

^{. . . .}

.

22

Synopsis ....24

Chapter

2:

Science and Society in the Nineteenth Century O:

Climatology

and

the Colonial Impulse

. .

. ... ..

zs

Introduction ...25

ScienceintheNineteenthCentury ,...26

Classical Climatology into the Enlightenment: Climate Makes the

Man

^. ,

.

30 Our WeatherA.{ationalism: _The Civilized Temperate

Climate

. . . .

.

37 TheirWeather/Racism:

TheUncivilizedTropicalClimate ...44

The European Body in the Colonies; The Emergence of

PropagandisticClimatology... ...

52

New Zealand and North

America

. .

.

⁵⁵

Scientific Climatology and the

Colonies

. . .

.

60

Synopsis ...

65

Science and Society in

the

Nineteenth Century (II):

Chapter

3:

Weather-Modification

Introduction: Man Makes the Climate Climatology _{and the} Colonial Impulse

(II)

. .

The Civil Climates of North America

Modern Improvements: Rainmaking as Technology _{. .} .

Destiny and Cultivation: Agricultrue rs Pluviculture . . . ^.

Destination Civilization: eflling in at Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas and Montana Artificial Rainmaking

Chapter

4:

In the Company of Newton and Cuvier: James Pollard Espy

(HisCompetitors)andRainrnaking ...

⁹⁷

Synopsis

106

Science

and

Weather-Modification in the Twentieth Century (I):

Whig History

and

Critique

110

Introduction

I

l0

ThePluviculturalists'LastPost .... ll0

Weather:WordsandDeeds ...114

Discussing Mother Goose with Professor Einstein:

Weather-Modifi cation's All-American Story ^. Literature

Other Forms of Weather-Modification: Fog Dispersion, Hail Reduction and Lightning Suppression . . . .

Laboratory, Military, Mainstream Meteorology and Society

'Langmuir the Indomitable' Versus 'One of the Greatest Meteorolosists of Our Time' . .

Synopsis ...

68 68 75 78 83 83 87 94

ll6

t20 r24 t25

131 138

Chapter

5: Science and

Weather-Modification in the Twentieth Century (II):

An Actor-Network History

Introduction: ( Sub-Aquatic) A ctor-Netrvorks

The Science of Weather-Modification in America: 1946 to the present Insiders Out: Counting Allies and Resources . . . . ^.

Weather-Modifiers .

Consumers The Military

Water Flows Uphill to Money: The Bureau of Reclamation . . ^. Clouds

Out of the Onery. From Order ts Chaos; The Evaluations of the Scientific Community

.

164

From Callon to Cold War and

Drought

. . .

.

l7Z

General Historical Conditions: The Cold War .

.

^.

.

l7Z

General Arnospheric Conditions: The Role of

Drought

^.

.

l7S

Fujimura and "Doable"

Science

. .

.

¹⁷⁷

Synopsis .... l7g

Introduction: Nothing but Conflict and Ill

Will

. .

. l8l

WeatherPanic

. ....

¹⁸⁵

ColoradoGusher ,..186

A Gallic Panic Follows Hysteria in

Ahneria

. . . . .

.

¹⁸⁸

ScapegoatsintheMaking

.... ....192

The Iberian Influence: Hard Tornatoes por las Multinacionales,

HardTimesporlosCampesinos.. ...

195

TheFrenchFolkTradition... ...198

The PhantomPlane and the

Panic

.

.

²⁰¹

Synopsis:

Society,theFinalFrontier ...204

Studying Science in the Social ..

. .

.

²⁰⁶

Introduction ...206

Diffusion Theory and the Discovery of

Society

. .

.

^ZO7

Fears, Doubts, and Superstitions: Diagnosing weather-Modification's opponents . . . .

.

zog Who Owns the Clouds over Fulron

County?

. . .

.

210 The Poverty of Diffusion Theory: Coloradan Sociology and the Making of the

BadWeatherCitizen ,...21s

The End of the Golden

Wearher

. .

.

²²⁶

The Rapid City Flood and its Anri-Science

Alluvium

^. . . .

.

Z3O Instrumental Rationality and Rainrnaking: The Eclipse of

Season?

^. . . . .

.

234

Synopsis

.

...240

I4l

l4l

145 147 147

r52

153 156

l6l

Chapter 6: Society

^and

Weather-Modification in the Twentieth Century (I):

North America

and

Western Europe l8l

Chapter

7:

Chapter

8:

Society

and

Weather-Modification in the Twentieth Century flI):

The South African Reception

Introduction

South Africa's Water Problem

The History of Scientifrc Weather-Modification in South Africa Hail Suppression: 1971-1981 . ^.

Precipitation-Augmentation: _I 981 Onwards Of Clouds and Calvin: Religious Cornplaints Environmental Opposition to Weather-Modifi cation Black Opposition . .

Red-Ons-Re€n (Save Our Rain) The Rain Trust .

Would the Mystery'oDerde Mag" Please Contact Major Botha on Nelspruit 27120 .

Synopsis

242

242 243 2M 245 248 252 253 255 258 260 262 264

Conclusions ...

Why Does Weather-Modification Have Such a Precarious Scientific Status?

How Dow We Explain Public Opposition to Weather-Modification?

Bibliography .. ...

²⁷⁸

267 268 271

vt

Figure 1:

Figure 2:

Figure 3:

Figure 4:

Figure 5:

Figure 6:

Figure 7:

Figure 8:

Figure 9:

Figure l0:

Figure 1l:

Figure 12:

Figure 13:

Figure 14:

Figure

l5:

Figure

l6:

Figure l7:

Figure 18:

Figure 19:

Figure 20:

Figure

2l:

Figxe22:

Figure 23:

Figure 24:

Figure 25:

Figure 26:

Figure 27:

Figure 28:

Figure 29:

Figure 30:

Figure

3l;

Table of Figures

The"Classical"EurocentricTrajectory.. ...

⁸

GentlemenScientists ..,...27

The World's Climatic Zones, 5ft Century

BC

.

.

^. .

. 3l

Globallncidenceoflslam ...45

Dry Climates of the

World

.

.

⁴⁶

AdvertisementforColonialClothing ...50

InternationalMigrations,

1820-1910 ...

⁵⁵

Problematization: Actors cannot Attain what They want by Themselves . . . .

.

¹⁴³

The Devices of "Interessement" or How The Allies are Locked into place _{. . . .}

. lM

Problematization: Actors Cannot Attain what They want by Themselves . . . .

.

¹⁴⁶

The Devices of "Interessement" or How The Allies are Locked into place _{. . . .}

.

¹⁴⁶

Hole Cut in Cloud Deck by Cloud

Seeding

¹⁴⁷

OvalPattemMadeinCloudsbyDrylceSeeding ...

¹⁴⁸

Regions Where Clouds Were Seeded (US), 1948

-

1964

.

¹⁵³

The hon Cage of Meteorology: Rationalization of the

Weather

¹⁶⁴

'I

Wonder

if

it's Their's or

Ours' .

¹⁶⁶

Number of Seeded Cases Needed to Identify a Seeding Factor at Various

Significance

Levels l7l

Thaw in the Cold

War .

174

Aligrung Levels of

work

organization to construct Doable

problems

_l7B

WAGishTechnocracy

....

lg4

The New Commercial

Indushry

lg6

Gallic Panic

. l9l

Categorization and distribution of Adopters of lnnovation . . .

.

^.

.

²¹⁷

Federal SupportofWeather-ModificationResearch, 1963

-

1985

.

^{. .} . .

.

²³³

'Frankly, I Don't Like the Look of the

Weather...'

. . . .

.

²³⁷

'Front Porch

Forecasters' .

²³⁷

Insti tutional Framework Governin g South African precipitati on- AugmentationProgrammes . . . .

Hambra!

'Little

Bear to Plane. Start Seeding' . . . .

'SaysWho?'...

Shooting the Cloud Seeders: 'Di6 Verpesting Sal Ek Nog Aflcry'

251 256 258 260 265

vii

The history of meteorology has had less attention,

I

imagine, than scientific discipline of comparable scope.

W.E. Knowles Middleton,

A

History of the Theories of Rain and Precipitation.

that

of

any other Other Forms

of

Within this century meteorology has emerged as one of the most active and important branches of the physical sciences .... Yet, notwithstanding the increased interest in the history of meteorology, very little was written about it, and most of the work was done during the first quarter of this centu4/.

H. Howard Frisinger, The History of Meteorologt: To i800.

Historians of science have showed little interest in meteorology.

Jim Burton, 'Robert Fitzroy and the Early History of the Meteorological

office.'

Meteorology ... has been overlooked by historians, perhaps because ofits relatively low prestige as an "appliedn'branch ofphysics.

James

Rodger Fleming, Meteorologt in america, I814-1874:

Theoretical, Observational, and Institutional Horizons.

History

of

meteorology science.

Frederick Lee Nebeker.

has until recent$ been a neglected branch

of

the history

of

The 2 0t h- C e n tury Transf,o rmati on of M et eo r o I o

gt.

Meteorology and oceanography are ... problematic disciplines that have been ignored except by specialists.

Peter J. Bowler, The Norton History of the Environmental Sciences.

vlu