private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without
the permission of the Author.
DEl·lOGRAPHIC CHANGE
IN 'i1HE
~ELLINGTON-HUTT URBAN
AREA 1956 - 1966
A
Contribution to the Population
Geographyof New Zealand
.A
Thesis
Presented in Partial Fulfilment ofthe
Requirements forthe DeGrce
ofMaster of
Arts in
Geography at Massey Universityby
MORRIS
Df\.VID MEAR1972
I
' I
f~CKNO :/LEDG"'.l:l·'l~NTS
In preparing this thesis I h3ve received assistanc0 from many peopl 2.
nckno1.'ll edge:
At this stag2 I wish to
Mr ~.D. Trlin for his supervision and very helpful criticism over the past two years.
1rhe Department of Geography for the help it has given i n terms of finance for r eproducing diagrams.
The technicians of the Massey University CoMputer Centre for punching and processing the fGctor analysis dnta and the Massey Uni versity Photographic Unit for preparing multiple copies of maps and
diu.graus v1hich appeo.r in thi s thesis.
Mr R. Nelson of the Department of Statistics,
~cpulation Branch, nnd his st2ff for the co-operct ion shown ~hilo prc~~ring bas~ m~no rn~ in the pr ovi si on of unpubl ished date on the Maori population.
The Department of Labour ( 11.:lnpower Planning Unit) and the Lower Hutt Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Inc.) for the information they were abl e to provide in relation to the labour shortage problem.
My wife, Marie, for her patience and never ending encouragement.
Finally, Mrs R. McGee for typing the final thesis copy.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TABLE OFCONTENTS
LISTOF
FIGURES LISTOF TABLES LIST OF APPENDICIES Hfi'RODUCTION
Chapter One
Chapter Two Chapter Three Cha pt er Four Chapter Five
CONCLUSION
APPENDICIES BIBLIOGRAPHYPOPULATION
GROWTH, DISTRIBUTION
AND DENSITY
DISTRIBUTION or R
ACIAL GROUPS
AGE-SEX CHARACTERISTICSFERTILITY
D:t:t'CGRAPHIC CW\.NGE AI.JD FLAI,TING At\ :SX/\r'.fLE
i i i .
Page ii iii iv vi vii
6
31
75 89
104 111 148
FIGURES
Following page
1. Frontispi ece - Census Sub-Divisions, Wellington- 5 Hutt Urban Area.
2. Population Growth 1956 - 1966, Total and Non-Haori.
3 .
Populat ion Growth 1961 - 1966, Total and Non-Mnori.4. Population Grogth 1956 - 1966, Maori. 5. Total Popul~tion Net Migration Gains and
Losses, 1961 - 1966.
G .
Population Gradients.7.
Residential Density PQtterns.8 .
Dwelling Densi t ies, 1956 and 1966.9. Europe~n Non-European Ratio, 1956 and 1966. 10. Indian Residential Dissimilarity, 1961 and 1966.
9
10
15 20
24 24 26
33
37 11. Chinese Residential Dissimil~rity, 1961 and 1966. 37 12. Polynesinn Residential Dissimi larity, 1961 and 37
1966.
13. Maori Residenti~l Dissimilarity, 1961 and 1966. 37 14, 14a, 14b. Maori Non-Maori Residential Dissimi- 40
larity 1966.
15. Compn.rison of f\.ge Structures of Maori nnd 50 Total Population, 1956 and 1966.
16. Total Population Age Structures, 1956. 17. Total Population Age Structures, 1966.
18. Maori Age Structures, 1955. 55
19. Maori Age Structures, 1966. 55
20 .
Age ,C;tructures: Spatial Di stribution,1956 . 21.
:~ge ,Structures; Spahc.l Di ::tri bu ti on,1966.
22 .
Chang-i ng '~ge Structures,1956 - 1966 .
23, 23a. ;p-e Specific l'Jet Licr8tion,
F •t 1- 1966.
24 .
~e~endency ~atios,1966 .
25 .
Index of ''cf,eing, 1 ';166. 26. ';ex R-:itios,1966 .
27 Vari t ion in Derived ~re 3ex Jndicies,
1966 . 28 .
Total frpulatjcn Fertility 1atterns,1c 56
and1 '.")66.
20 ./ . fertility and j arital :-)tatw;,
195G - 19C6 .
y ·~. r
on-~·8 ori .:tnd 1·'aorj ;·ert ility j-
atterns,1c66 .
31.
r:on-1 nori ::,nd ; aori :· erti li t y ;)if f er''"ll t ials19 66 .
v.
following page
59
66 67
6868
7879
TABLES
I Percentage Distribution of Population in
~ellington-Hutt Urban Aren,
1956 - 1966.
II Percentage Distribution of Maori Population in Wellington-Hutt Urban Area
1956 - 1966 .
III Inner-City (Zone 1) Rates of Increase.
IV Popul~tion Density Variation, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area,
1966.
V Racial Composition of Population in gellington- Hutt Urban Area
1956 - 1966.
VI Racic..l Concentr.'.1.tion in the Wellingto''-Hutt Urban Area ,
1956 - 1966.
VII Residential Dissimilarity of Non-European
Racial Groups in the ~ellington-Hutt Urban Area.
VIII Maori/Non-Maori Index of Residential Dissimilarity in Selected Inner-City and Peripheral Sub-divisions,
1966 .
IX Residential Dissimilarity and Social Distance Scaling (BoGardus) of Selected Ethnic Groups.
X Percentage Net J.1i gration Gain by Sex in
Selected Inner-City Sub-divisions,
1961 - 1966 .
XI Inner-Ci ty and Peripheral Age Specific Net Migration Gains,
1961 - 1966.
XII Intra-Urban Migrants: Place of Origin by Sex. XIII Fertility Extremes~
1966.
XIV Zonal, M.F.T. Means,
1956
and1966.
XV Total, Non-Maori and Maori Fertility, Wellington-Hutt Urban Ar~a~
1966.
XVI Peripheral Fertility Patterns, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area,
1966.
XVII Factors Influencing Labour Shortages in the Hutt Valley .•
XVIII Othogonal Varimax Rotated Factor Loadings on Twenty Population Variables.
Page
10
14 16 23
36 38
4145 61
77 79 84
93
108
A.
B.
c.
D.
E .
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
;~PPENDICIES
Concentric Zonntion of Wellington-Hutt Urban Area.
Annu~l Rates of Pophlation Increase, Wel l ingt on- Hutt Urban Area.
Total Estimated Net Mi gration, ~ellington-Hutt
Urban Area, 1961 - 1966.
Gross Populat ion Densities, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area, 1956 - 1966.
Residential Densities , ~cllington-Hutt Urban Area, 1966.
DDelling Densities, ~ellington-Hutt Urban Ar ea, 1956 and 1966.
Estimated Net i·ii GrGt ion, ii/el l ini;ton-Hutt Urban Area, 1961 - '1 966.
Dependency Ra tics, "·elJ inr:;ton-'.iutt Cr flan .,re::., 1956 - 1966
Ind0x of Ageing, Wellington-Hutt Urban ~rea,
1956 - 1966.
Sex Ratios, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area 1956 - 1966.
Marital Fertility Index, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area, 1956 - 1966.
Occupation Characteristics, Wellington-Hutt Urban Area, 1966.
vii.
Page 111
112
115
117
120
122
124
134
136
139 142
INTRODUCTION
Although a number of articles and theses dealing with specific aspects of population and popul~tion change in the Uellington-Hutt Urban Area have been written, very few
com,prehensiv~ studies have been ::i.ttempted. Ament; the latter are McGee's (1969) examination of the social-ecological forces operating in the gr eater Jellington area, and Neville's (1959) thesis which deals primarily with patterns of gro~th in the popul ation bet~een 1926 and 1956 but also exaQines changes which have taken pl ace in age-sex structures. Generally speaking, the studies conducted to date hnve been of two types; (a) point in time, and (b) period studies, both types examining n particular feature of the population such o.s ac;e-:sex structures (Franklin, Gibson and Treeby, 1963), or racial residential patterns (Trlin, 1971 a). As these studies have been conducted independently of each other, and their objectives and results unco-ordinated, i t was felt that a comprehensive study examining a number of
demographic features over ~ ten year period (1956 to 1966, the latest decade for which full population information is available) was warranted.
The aims of this thesis are thus threefold.
1. To describe and analyse the spatial distribution and inter-relationship of a number of demographic features in the Wellington-Hutt Urban Area.
2. To exrunine and, where possible, account for the variation which exists between the Maori population (as an example of a minority group) and the total population.
3.
To examine the i mplications of a changing demographic base for pl anni ng.The l atter objective arises from the perennial and increasingly chronic 'problem' of planning for people living in New Zealand's urban areas. It cannot be emphasised too strongly that the demographic base and more particul arly the spatial variation of demographic variabl es are the bases for urban planning, which has in the past tended to concentrate on the built environment at the expense of its creators and inhabitants.
To fulfi l the above aims the following hypotheses wil l be examined.
1. That the Wellington-Hut t Urban Area has experienced patterns of demographic change over the decade
1956 -66
compar able t o those observed in other New Zealand Urban Areas.
2. That the patterns of demographic change observed in the Wellington-Hutt Urban Area can be attributed to the
concurrent processes of family formation, suburbanisation and State planning and direction.
3.
That patterns of demographic change are inter-related.4.
That minority groups (in this case the Maori) will be at variance with the demographic changes that have taken5.
Th3t mi nority group variance wil l be great est in theinner urban ar ea and wi l l deminish t oward the periphery, e.g.
( Q)
the growth rate of the Maori populati on will be positive i n many of the inner-city sub-divi sions, whil e that for the total popul ation vi l l be negative, and (b) growth for the Maori
popul ati on wi l l be great est at the periphery o.s i t is for the total popul ation.
6.
That the spatial distribution of demographi c phenomena and the variations whic~ exist between the Maori and t ot al population can be explained by the ecologi cal forces operating within the urbnn environment.The thesis i s divided into si x chQpters. Chapter one examines the patterns of popul~tion growth, distribut ion and densit y changus over the period 1956 - 1966. Three popul ation groups are exami ned - t ot al, non-Maori and Mo.ori - and o.n
assessment i s made of net int ernal migration as a factor contri- buting t o the observed patterns. Chapt er t wo is concerned with racial mi nority r esidential patterns. An examination is made of the concentration of non-Europeans in rel ation to Europeans and then a more detailed exami nation of each of the major non-European racial groups (Maori, Polynesian, Chinese and Indian) is undertaken in order to assess the extent of residential integration.
Chapter three is conoerned basically with the intra-urban distribution of age-sex structures and the changes which have taken place over the period under study. To show the variation
4.
which exists between Maori and total population age structures at the sub-division level, tri-graph analysis of both population groups was carried out. A number of indicies derived from the basic age-sex profile information are al so plott ed spatially to give a more accurate picture of the intra-urban variation which exists between the two croups. In Chapter four fertility patterns are examined for the total, non-Maori and Maori population.
Spatial patterns are established for the total popul~tion in order that changes which occur over the period can be assessed and non- Maor i /Mnori differentials are presented (a) t o illustrate the variation in fertility which exists between the t wo groups, nnd
(b) to show wh~t effect f~aoli fertility has on the total
population fertility pattern. Chapter five draws on the findings of the previous chapters i n that i t illustrates the implications demographic change can have for pl anning in the community.
Finally, in the concluding chapter, the results of the thesis are assessed in terms of the initial hypotheses proposed. In addition factor analysis is appli~d to ascertain the degree to which the variables discussed are inter-related, and to establish (or confirm) the factors underlying the vari ation in the demographic variables examined.
Given the nature of the study and the material being examined, special efforts have to be made to avoid presenting an indigestable mass of statistics. Accordingly, considerable use has been made of maps and other illustrations to present the results of data analysis as clearly and concisely as possible.
Such visual aids, however, though facilitating easier reporting and comprehension, do have the disadvantage of requiring the
readers, detailed r esul t s of analysis are included in a set of statistical appendicies which should be regarded o.s an integral part of the study.
Lioi tntions i mposed on a study such as this nr e those which ~re common to most studies dependent on census reports or other offici~l stati stics as the primnry source of data.
this means in real i ty i s th~t conclusi ons dr~wn are based
DriLl~rily on the analysis of qunntit~tive data not sp0cifically dcsi0ncd for deuogro.phic r esearch. To some extent the results obtai ned, nnd sp,:;ti al pat terns identified r,ni.y reflect the no.ture or forM of the informntion provided i n the census r eports. For example, inform~tion on the age structure of the no,ulntion is oft en he&ped artificially at five year i nterval s . i,:hil e this practice may wel l be i n the i nt er ests (and refl ect the
capabilities) of official data col lection and publicat ion, i t
neverthel ess pl aces r estricticins on subsequent analyses, especiully as individual census schedules are classed as confident ial
documents beyond the reach of research workers both inside and outside government departments. Similarly, variations in the size of census sub-divisions and the uneven distribution of the population within them will mean that patterns established are probably more generalised than those that would pertain had a smaller areal unit such as the mesh block been used. The above mentioned factors should therefore be kept in mind when reading the thesis.
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