GBRMPA ELibrary: The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2013: Drivers of change in the Great Barrier Reef

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TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS hub

The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2013

Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef

Erin Bohensky, Matt Curnock, Sarah Gillet, Jeremy Goldberg, Margaret Gooch, Nadine Marshall, Petina Pert, Lea Scherl, Samantha Stone-Jovicich and Renae Tobin

Interim Report

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The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program

(SELTMP) 2013

Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef

Erin Bohensky

¹

, Matt Curnock

¹

, Sarah Gillet

¹

, Jeremy Goldberg

^1,2

, Margaret Gooch

³

, Nadine Marshall

¹

, Petina Pert

^1,4

, Lea Scherl

⁵

, Samantha Stone-Jovicich

¹

and Renae Tobin

⁴

1CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences / Wealth from Oceans Flagship;

2School of Business, James Cook University; ³Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority;

4School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University;

5NQ Dry Tropics NRM

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This report should be cited as:

Bohensky, E., Currnock, M., Gillet, S., Goldberg, J., Gooch, M., Marshall, N., Pert, P., Scherl, L., Stone-Jovicich, S., Tobin, R. (2014) The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2013, Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef. Report to the National Environmental Research Program. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited, Cairns (51pp.).

Published by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre on behalf of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program (NERP) Tropical Ecosystems (TE) Hub.

The Tropical Ecosystems Hub is part of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program. The NERP TE Hub is administered in North Queensland by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited (RRRC). The NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub addresses issues of concern for the management, conservation and sustainable use of the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and its catchments, tropical rainforests including the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA), and the terrestrial and marine assets underpinning resilient communities in the Torres Strait, through the generation and transfer of world-class research and shared knowledge.

This publication is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, information or educational purposes subject to inclusion of a sufficient acknowledgement of the source.

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities.

While reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.

This report is available for download from the NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub website:

http://www.nerptropical.edu.au/research 2014

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SELTMP 2013 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 2

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SELTMP 2013 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 4

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B. Human and

Community Wellbeing

Opportunities, Empowerment, Security

D. Direct Drivers of Change

Climate change

Primary resource industry activities

ob al, Re gi on al & Lo ca l S ca les

A. Reef Relation-

ship

Who?

How many?

Where?

How?

When?

Why?

Worth?

C. Indirect Drivers of Change

Economic, Social & cultural, Demographic, Politics &

management, Communication &

media, science & technology

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0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1

USD per 1.00 AUD, monthly average

Value of Australian dollar

2011 2012 2013

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-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M o n th ly p e rc e n ta ge c h an ge (tu rn o ve r)

Total Retail

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Food

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Household Goods

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories

1.0 1.5 2.0

c h an ge (tu rn o ve r)

Department Stores

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

h an ge (tu rn o ve r)

Cafes, restaurants and takeway food

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Total Retail

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Food

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Household Goods

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Department Stores

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Cafes, restaurants and takeway food

23

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846

347

745

559 598

423 425 417

321 194

1003

1006

496

546 400

447

279 231

134

204

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70 63 63

36

53

39

27 35

29 33

34

26 21

42

23

22

18 9

15 2

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Legislation, regulation or plan Implementing agency and level

Great Barrier Reef Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2012-2017

GBRMPA (Federal)

Strategic Plan 2012-16 GBRMPA (Federal)

Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Strategic Assessment

GBRMPA (Federal)

Reef Water Quality Protection Plan 2013 Australian Government/QLD Government (Federal/State)

QLD Ports Strategy (released for public comment 2012) Department of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning (State)

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Information is at the core of decision-making, and communication and media provide mechanisms for information flows among and between managers, resource users and the public. Media outlets regulate

visibility of information, and are instrumental in reflecting and shaping public perceptions about the reef.

“Wishlist” Indicators

• Top news stories

• Web searches

• Use of social media

• Media representations of GBR

• % of population using internet for information

• Sources of and trust in information and networks

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600

number of articles

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

number of articles

2011 2012 2013

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

2011 2012 2013*

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

number of articles

2011 2012 2013

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

number of articles

2011 2012 2013

80 100 120 140

f articles

100 120 140 160

f articles

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

United Nations

CSIRO AIMS GBRMPA

Number of articles

January Febraury March April May June July August September

October 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Number of articles

January February March April May June July August September October

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1 3 3

9 7

17 24 1

2 3

5 7

10 12 2

5 5

7 8

12

13 2

7 7

7 8

12 10 8

21 19

15 19

20 18 7

14 15

12 14

10 9 14

15 18

15 14

9 6 22

16 16 16

12

5 5 20

6 8 7

5 1

1 23

11 6 7

5 2 2 Research Instutions

Friends, family, colleagues

NGO's / similar

Government managers

Industry groups / reps

Media

Social media

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Images: www.terminalu.com; www.designboom.com; shoppingcartandshopper.blogspot.com

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SELTMP 2013: Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef

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