Improving Human Well-Being on a Resource- Limited Planet – Can we Do It?
Professor Sir David King
Chair, Future Cities Catapult, London Director, Cambridge Kaspakas
Senior Science Advisor, UBS
Chancellor, University of Liverpool
Chief Scientific Adviser’s work
• Reactive
– Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) – BSE
– Natural Hazards – Avian flu
• Proactive and strategic
– Global warming
– GM Science Review – Horizon Scanning
– Post 9/11 resilience and detection – African Development
– Flu pandemic
The Loess Plateau, China
Source: CSIRO
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
Loess Plateau: The Mother River
21 st Century Challenges
Conflict and terrorism
Water resource
Energy
security and supply
Health and developmen
t
Food production
Climate change
Ecosystem s
Minerals
Population – the driver
Conflict and terrorism
Water resource
Energy
security and supply
Food production
Climate change
Ecosystem s
Minerals
Population – the
driver
Total Population of the World in Billions
Source: IIASA
Middle Class*
*Middle class here
defined as daily per
capita spending of
between $10 and $100
in PPP terms
• 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today
• 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030
• 90% of that growth coming from the Asia- Pacific region
Rising Middle Class
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999- 2001=100)
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
“Circular Economy”
Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009
Global Water Demand
Global Food Demand
Source: FAO
Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA
The Arab Spring
Source: Chuquicamata in Chile
Copper Reserves
Oil Production:
Has Oil Passed its Tipping Point?
Source: K. James/Bloomberg/Getty
Volume of conventional oil discovered Volume of conventional oil consumed
B il li o n s o f b a rr e ls [G b ]
Year 50
40 30 20 10
2000 1980
1960 1940
0
1920
1900 2020 2040 2060
Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026
Conventional Oil Supply and Demand
Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth
Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present
Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435
Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies
Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility
The Global Flow of Energy
Source: J.M. Cullen and : J.M. Allwood, University of Cambridge Energy Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.054
Energy
Technologies Institute
• Public-Private partnership
between UK Government and industry
• BP, Shell, EDF, E:On,
Caterpillar Inc, Rolls Royce, S&SEG all core partners
• Will invest over £1bn in energy research, design, demonstration and
development over 10 years
• Looking to develop links with
other countries
389 ppm
Interglaci al period
Glacial period Carbon
dioxide
Temperature
Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485
Source: ML Design. From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009
60 million years ago
40 million
20 million 0.5
million Present
175ppm 200ppm 275ppm 250ppm
Carbon dioxide
2.5
million
2
million 1.5 1 million
million 5
4 3 2 1 0
225ppm
3
million
400,000 years ago 300,000 200,000 100,000 Present
Temperatur e
0ºC -2ºC -4ºC -6ºC -8ºC
-300ppm -325ppm δ18 0 (ppt)Temperatur e
Observed Global Temperatures
Sea Level and Temperature Measurements
Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool
European Temperatures 1900 – 2100
Source: Hadley Centre
Destruction of forests
Source: World Research
Institute
Protection Areas
CAPE COD
Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service
Foresight projects
Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs
Detection and Identification of Infectious
Diseases
Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
Tackling Obesities:
Future Choices
Cognitive
Systems Flood and Coastal Defence
Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Sustainable
Energy
Management and the Built
Environment Mental Capital
and Wellbeing
Source: Foresight Future Flooding 2004
• Catchment wide Storage
• Land-use planning
• Realigning Coastal Defences
Flood and Coastal Defence Foresight
‘water has an economic value…absence of a water
management system costs more than the implementation of such a system’
On average, every £1 currently invested in new and improved flood risk
management assets reduces the long-term cost of flooding and coastal erosion damages by around £8.
Investment in Water Infrastructure
Source: Resource, 2012
Source: Environment Agency, 2009
Collective response Global governance
Sustainable consumption Science, technology,
innovation and imagination The Paradigm Shift
A Twenty First Century Renaissance
Global Action on Global Warming • I P
C C , 1 9 8 8
• U ni te d N at io n s F ra m e w o r k C o n v e nt io n o n cl i m at e c h a n g e, 1 9 9 2
• K y ot o, 1 9 9 7
• U K G o v er n m e nt
’s 6 0
% ta r g et , 2 0 0 3;
th e n 8 0
% in 2 0 0 7
• E U : E m is si o n s tr a di n g, 2 0 0 4
• G
8
+
5,
G
le
n
e
a
gl
e
s,
2
0
0
5
(20 07)
Bus ines s as usu al (2 009)
The Rise in Emissions to 2100
Source: Adapted from Defra
Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2009 (Tonnes)
Source: International Energy Statistics
Largest Interregional Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y −1 )
Source: Davis and Cladeira (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions, PNAS
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
Timeline of Climate Change Action
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1992 UNFCCC
formation
1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Marrakesh – Kyoto Protocol implementation
rules agreed
2005 Kyoto Protocol
enters
into force 2012
Kyoto I ends 2010
Cancun Agreement 2009
Copenhagen Accord
National and Regional Commitments
Global Process
Fi rs t A cc or d Co m m itm en t pe rio d fo r 7 6 na tio ns 20 09
10 0 he ad s o f s ta te s at Co pe nh ag en 2003
UK unilaterally
declares 60%
emissions reduction target for
2050
2004 UK Internal
ETS established
2005 European
Union adoption of
the ETS 2005 Gleneagles G8+5
National:
UN:
20 08
UK C lim at e Ch an ge A ct
2011
Durban
Platform
Source: Adapted from Marchal et al., 2011
Emissions Trajectories from 2010-2050 under BAU
Scenario and a Global Cap-and-Trade System
National Actions on Climate Change
Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements.
‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action.
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
National Action: Rwanda
Historical Development of Advanced Economies
Imported goods Innovation
Science, Technology,
Engineering
Manufacturing
Offshore
Manufacturing
Smart green advanced manufacturing
sector
Innovation Science,
Technology, Engineering
Emergence of Smart Green Advanced
Manufacturing Sector
The International Fusion Project: ITER
Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy
Plastic photovoltaics
Richard Friend
Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust
Low Carbon Vehicles
Source: Gordon Murray Designs
Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST
Source: Aviation and the Environment March 2010
Hybrid Airship
People vs. Cars
Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa
Economy
Environment
Quality of Life
Integration
T ra ns po rt W at er a nd W as te
E ne rg y H ea lth ca re
E du ca tio n S ec ur ity
C om m s B ui ld in gs
Quality of
Life
Low
Impact
Economy
Progress in China
• 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward
• 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in their development
• 2012 - 15 th November – Changed their
constitution
‘Unsustainable Boom’
Equitable wealth distribution
Instabilities due to resource scarcity
‘Renaissance World’
Good use of technology Behavioural transition Accounting for common good
‘The Frog Boiler ’ Degraded planetary system
Resource scarcity
‘Gates and Ghettoes’
Only low level of the population achieves
well-being Society in reverse
State of Resources and Global Commons Human
Well- being
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being
Scenarios
Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
