Latest weather and climate news

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CottonInfo: Moisture Manager, 27 April View this email in your browser

In this edition:

Australian rainfall analysis (19-26 April 2015) Summary of climate indicators

Rainfall and temperature guidance summary The BOM/POAMA rainfall predictions for May

International El Niño-Southern Oscillation modelling for winter/spring Using seasonal models in winter/spring 2015

Latest weather and climate news

Multi-week models showing an easterly change at the end of April for most cotton growing areas, followed by average to below average rainfall during the month of May.

Warm local sea temperatures in the Coral Sea and Arafura/Timor Seas contributing to atmospheric moisture supply, contrary to a developing El Niño condition in the equatorial Pacific.

The latest BOM/POAMA monthly prediction showing average to below average temperatures for central/eastern Australia during May.

A summary of ENSO predictions by international research agencies shows consensus on a developing El Niño event for the winter and spring

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of 2015.

Rainfall guidance: BOM/POAMA research shows increased model accuracy during La Niña and El Niño events from ENSO neutral years.

Australian rainfall analysis (19-26 April 2015)

Summary of climate indicators

For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here.

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CottonInfo moisture manager: Easterly change predicted for late April

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Rainfall and temperature guidance summary

The BOM/POAMA rainfall predictions for May

The BOM/POAMA monthly outlook for the remainder of May looks favourable for cotton picking with average to below average rainfall predicted.

Temperatures are forecast to achieve average levels during the month of May.

The map below shows Indian Ocean moisture streaming through western central Australia, producing rainfall in central and western areas of the

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continent.

International El Ni ñ o-Southern Oscillation modelling for winter/spring

El Niño conditions continue to dominate global commentary for the start of the ENSO calendar commencing in May. The atmospheric conditions coupled with sea surface temperatures during the last three week period with some research agencies claiming a 70 percent chance of El Niño conditions through Australian winter and spring seasons.

Table. Summary of Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperatures commencing July 2015 from various international research agencies (source: BOM, 2015)

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Using seasonal models in winter/spring 2015

With the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation calendar year about to commence, the accuracy of using computer guidance can vary depending on which ENSO

‘State’ we are in. The Figure below shows the skill of predicting a rain event at 7-14 day lead time improves noticeably during defined El Niño or La Niña conditions. With El Niño conditions predicted for the winter and spring of 2015, accuracy of multi-week guidance will likely be enhanced during this period.

Figure 3. For rainfall forecast in the second fortnight, there is higher skill when ENSO is in an extreme and when the IOD is strong (June, July, August, September, October, November. Source POAMA, 2015).

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Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances. Header photo courtesy Cotton Australia and Jamie Condon.