Mediated Modelling
Integrating the four aspects of well-being in Auckland
to support Spatial Planning
Sustainable Pathways 2 Project
Goal: to provide synergistic tools to support integrated, decision making in Auckland and Wellington.
Outputs:
1. A system dynamics model that can be used by a wide range of stakeholders
2. A spatial decision support system operated by council staf
Both models allow the simulation of development pathways and
visualisation of future change.
The System Dynamics Model
• This model was developed using mediated modelling and therefore reflects the views of the stakeholders involved
• It integrates the four aspects of well-being (cultural, social, economic and environmental)
• The feedback loops and delays can be described using a
Causal Loop Diagram as follows:
The Story of the Auckland Region in a
Causal Loop Diagram
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Under the anticipated population growth scenarios about 60,000 new students will need education. When more children are educated, they have more chance of being employed resulting in more economic activity and therefore a more attractive region. The latter will foster more migration to the region resulting in a reinforcing feedback loop.
Education
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding + +
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Education also improves health which in turn improves employment, the regional economy and the attractiveness of the region.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding + +
+
+
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
More people employed and an attractive regional economy increases the public funds (such as taxes due to more inhabitants) that can be derived from this economy. More funds can e.g. Be spend on the restoration of natural capital. However, it takes time to restore natural capital and derive ecosystem service benefits!
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
The next loop in this diagram is a balancing loop as population growth puts pressure on the health care system (e.g. more people, as a fraction of a growing population, require health care services. How well the healthcare services meet the demand for healthcare services, in turn impacts employment and the regional economy. If demand is higher than supply a negative impact on the attractiveness of the region emerges through increased unemployment affecting migration flows lowering the population.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
A second balancing loop is related to population growth negatively affecting natural capital though urbanisation.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
-
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
-
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population density is
currently chosen as a proxy
for deprivation and poverty
influencing “housing”. This
impacts ethnic groups
differently and thereby
impacts on Education (and
Health).
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Population growth also demands more transport.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
- +
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Natural Capital affects active mode in transport, which impacts on Health, i.e. Reducing the fraction of young and elderly requiring health care services.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
- +
+
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Transport impacts health through active mode (and emissions).
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
- +
+
?
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
External factors (e.g., climate change) impact population growth.
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
External Factors (e.g., climate change)
+ +
+
+
-
+ +
+
- +
+
+
?
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Cultural
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
External Factors (e.g., climate change)
+ +
+
+
-
?
+ +
+
- +
+
+
?
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Reminder to link the
“Cultural sector” into this causal loop diagram
-
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
Population
& cultural diversity
+
R1
Education Drives Growth
Education
health
Employment Economics Attractiveness
Funding
Cultural
Governance or policies solutions
Natural Capital Transport
External Factors (e.g., climate change)
+ +
+
+
-
?
+ +
+
- +
+
+
?
R2
Education Improves Health which Drives Growth
R3
Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital
B1
Population Growth sets pressure on Health System
B2
Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital
Social (e.g., Housing
crowding) +
-
B3
Crowding impacts education
