NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

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NT Pastoral Feed Outlook

September 2014

The purpose of this quarterly outlook is to summarise information relevant to the pastoral industry such as current feed supplies, seasonal conditions, the development of drought conditions in central Australia and fire risk.

You can see the entire document and all districts by continuing to scroll through this file. If you are interested in selected sections, you can click on the links below.

Summary of current situation & trends - all districts

Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at September 2014

Individual District Summaries:

Darwin District Katherine District

Victoria River District Sturt Plateau District Roper District Gulf District Barkly District

Tennant Creek District

Northern Alice Springs District Plenty District

Southern Alice Springs District

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Summary of current situation & trends - all districts – September 2014

KEY Green = low risk Orange = watch Red = high risk

KEY ↑ = increasing trend ↓ = decreasing trend ↔ = steady

Northern Territory Pastoral Districts

Indicator Darwin Katherine VRD Sturt

Plateau Roper Gulf Barkly Tennant Creek

Northern Alice Springs

Plenty

Southern Alice Springs

Comments 2013/14 total

pasture growth

↔ ↔ ↑ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate trend

compared to the long-term median.

Current estimated

standing biomass

↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate trend since

previous quarter.

Current seasonal

outlook

↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑

Arrows indicate the trend

since previous quarter and taking into account the forecasted model predictions.

Current fire risk

↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔

Arrows indicate the trend

since previous quarter.

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Northern Territory Seasonal Outlook – as at September 2014

Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

The national outlook for September 2014 to November 2014 indicates that:

 Drier than normal across the southern NT in September and across the Top End in October

 Wetter than normal in the Southern Alice Springs region over the October- November period.

 Cooler than normal days and nights across the northern NT in September

 Warmer than normal days more likely over the Top End in October.

Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and near- average to warm temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Seasonal Indicators Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Current outlook:

Neutral

El Niño ALERT Level (50% Chance)

ENSO remains neutral however El Niño possible in 2014 Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, ENSO remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014 although reduced slightly.

These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker although reduced from ALERT, remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while

an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Current outlook:

Wetter

IOD negative but weakening

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean has shown signs of weakening. Waters to the north of Australia and in the Timor Sea have cooled over the past two weeks. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD will continue to weaken, with neutral conditions likely to return during the austral spring.

A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter conditions to inland southern Australia during winter and spring.

Chance of exceeding the median max. temp.

September to November 2014 Chance of exceeding the median Rainfall

September to November 2014

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Darwin District

Risks:

- As at 1 September 2014, 95% of the district had high fire risk 2013/14 Wet Season

Pasture Growth*

(% of district)

Below Average 37%

Average 49%

Above Average 14%

<1,000kg/ha 0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 44%

>2,000kg/ha 56%

Currently

Total Standing Dry Matter (% of district)

Below Average 67%

Average 32%

Above Average 1%

<1,000kg/ha 51%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 47%

>3,000kg/ha 2%

Fire Risk (% of district)

High 95%

Moderate 5%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

(% of district) 4% (since 1 July 2014)

* In the Top End, pasture growth tends to be similar year to year regardless of rainfall. This is because pasture growth in the Top End is typically not water-limited and keeps growing until available soil nitrogen is exhausted. For this reason, any interpretation of growth being above or below the median should be treated cautiously because the actual difference between years is relatively small.

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth (September – November 2014)

Total 2013/14 Pasture Growth (July 2013 – June 2014)

Current Estimated Total Standing Dry Matter

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Katherine District

Risks:

Pasture Growth (% of district)

Below Average 42%

Average 55%

Above Average 3%

<1,000kg/ha 0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 38%

>2,000kg/ha 62%

Currently

Below Average 62%

Average 38%

Above Average 0%

<1,000kg/ha 22%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 76%

>3,000kg/ha 3%

High 98%

Moderate 2%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2013/14 Pasture Growth (July 2013 - June 2014)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Victoria River District

Risks:

Below Average 5%

Average 44%

Above Average 51%

<1,000kg/ha 2%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 35%

>2,000kg/ha 63%

Currently

Below Average 32%

Average 48%

Above Average 21%

<1,000kg/ha 5%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 72%

>3,000kg/ha 23%

High 100%

Moderate

<1%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Sturt Plateau District

Risks:

- As at 1 September 2014, 100% of the district had high fire risk 2013/14 Wet Season

Below Average 13%

Average 60%

Above Average 27%

<1,000kg/ha

<1%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 56%

>2,000kg/ha 44%

Currently

Below Average 18%

Average 80%

Above Average 2%

<1,000kg/ha 4%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 92%

>3,000kg/ha 3%

High 100%

Moderate 0%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

Total 2013/14 Pasture Growth (July 2013 – June 2014)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Roper District

Risks:

Below Average 30%

Average 63%

Above Average 7%

<1,000kg/ha 0%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 33%

>2,000kg/ha 67%

Currently

Below Average 36%

Average 62%

Above Average 2%

<1,000kg/ha 10%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 76%

>3,000kg/ha 15%

High 99%

Moderate 1%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Gulf District

Risks:

Below Average 8%

Average 57%

Above Average 35%

<1,000kg/ha

<1%

>1,000 & <2,000kg/ha 32%

>2,000kg/ha 67%

Currently

Below Average 23%

Average 68%

Above Average 9%

<1,000kg/ha 5%

>1,000 & <3,000kg/ha 77%

>3,000kg/ha 18%

High 100%

Moderate 0%

Low 0%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Barkly District

Risks:

- None to report 2013/14 Wet Season

Below Average 2%

Average 78%

Above Average 20%

<500kg/ha 21%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 33%

>1,000kg/ha 46%

Currently

Below Average 8%

Average 78%

Above Average 14%

<500kg/ha 23%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 41%

>1,000kg/ha 37%

High 74%

Moderate 22%

Low 4%

Area Burnt

(% of district) <1% (since 1 July 2014)

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Tennant Creek District

Risks:

- None to report 2013/14 Wet Season

Below Average 9%

Average 83%

Above Average 8%

<250kg/ha 32%

>250 & <500kg/ha 43%

>500kg/ha 24%

Currently

Below Average 23%

Average 69%

Above Average 9%

<500kg/ha 18%

>500 & <1,000kg/ha 31%

>1,000kg/ha 51%

High 87%

Moderate 12%

Low 1%

Area Burnt

Median Pasture Growth (kg/ha) (Running Total)

Total 2013/14 Pasture Growth (July 2013 – May 2014)

0 250 500 750 1000

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Northern Alice Springs District

Risks:

- None to report 2013/14 Season

Below Average 9%

Average 69%

Above Average 22%

<250kg/ha 20%

>250 & <500kg/ha 22%

>500kg/ha 58%

Currently

Below Average 11%

Average 74%

Above Average 15%

<250kg/ha 5%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 37%

>1,000kg/ha 57%

High 83%

Moderate 15%

Low 2%

Area Burnt

Chance of exceeding Median Pasture Growth (September – November 2014)

0 250 500 750 1000

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Plenty District

Risks:

-

The district has experienced consecutive poor seasons. Both the 2012/13 and the 2013/14 seasons were well below average. As at 1 September, 43%

of the district had below average total standing dry matter and 22% had extremely low levels (<250kg/ha).

2013/14 Season

Below Average 70%

Average 30%

Above Average 0%

<250kg/ha 73%

>250 & <500kg/ha 27%

>500kg/ha

<1%

Currently

Below Average 43%

Average 51%

Above Average 6%

<250kg/ha 22%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 62%

>1,000kg/ha 16%

High 41%

Moderate 54%

Low 5%

Area Burnt

Total 2013/14 Pasture Growth (July 2013 – May 2014)

0 250 500 750 1000

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Southern Alice Springs District

Risks:

- None to report 2013/14 Season

Below Average 11%

Average 77%

Above Average 12%

<250kg/ha 53%

>250 & <500kg/ha 32%

>500kg/ha 15%

Currently

Below Average 18%

Average 63%

Above Average 18%

<250kg/ha 5%

>250 & <1,000kg/ha 59%

>1,000kg/ha 37%

High 82%

Moderate 17%

Low

<1%

Area Burnt

0 250 500 750 1000

Median 2012/13 2013/14

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Pasture Information

The pasture and fire risk information in this document is derived from AussieGRASS.

AussieGRASS is a model that simulates pasture growth and standing biomass using climate data, vegetation mapping, fire history and regional estimates of grazing pressure. The model can be used to track simulated pasture growth and total standing pasture biomass at the landscape scale.

Note that the model does not use stocking rate data for individual properties. Where stock numbers are significantly higher or lower than typical for a district, model estimates of total standing dry matter may be erroneous.

Disclaimer

While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of production, changes in circumstances after the time of distribution may impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained herein, or that it is suitable for your intended use.

You should not rely upon information in this document for the purpose of making any business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation.

The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards

any person for loss of damage caused by any use of or reliance on this information.