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Acknowledgements
The author is indebted to his hYo supervisors, Professor A. L. RtJe and Dr H. T. Blo1r for- invoiuat!le ossistonce ond !~llidonce in
an
oreos ofthis study.
GrC~titude is olso e;dended to Dr Vv'. \~iickhorn (N.Z. Dair!J board) and iii
R. G .. Jeckson (N.Z. Dairy board) for pro vi ding ad· ... ·1 ce and r1e 1 pfu1 crit i ci srn
on
mC~ny espects of this study and mC~ki ng t'l'/oi 1 ab 1 e the ,jato usedin
this stud!d·Fino 11 y, speci el thanks are due to Erica ~;tory_, for assi stence in computing end word processing matters and pro vi ding support throughout the duration of this stud!J.
5
s
3.1 4.1 4.2
4
.•..! 7A summary of the the previous dynEim1 c pro!~remmi ng studies.
DElta for numerical examp 1 e.
Age and stage of 1 ectat ion adjustment factors.
Spearman's n:mk corre 1 ati on within-herd for the ranki ngs of individual cows according to future mllkfat production for 5 values of \·Vith1n-herd repeotabihty.
4.4 A summary of the features of the five calving date categories.
17
39
40
44 4.5 The number of breeding chances the~t cows in a given category hove
to stay in the some category or chonge to different categories bet \·veen yee~rs in tr1e subsequent see~son.
4.6 The probe~bi! it!J of movement from tr1e present ca 1 vi ng date
category to a eel vi ng dete ce~tegor!J in the ne;<t see son. 49 4.7 Uve\"teight end carcf:!ss wei~~ht data used in the present study. 52 4.8 V·/estege for the
dairy
cov·ts according to age.4.9 Anal!JSis of variances tables for the rate of death.
55
56
4. 1 0 Analysis of variances tab 1 es for the rate of i nvo 1 untary remova 1. 56 4. 11 The observed and estimated rl3tes for death and i nvo 1 untary
removaL 57
4.12 A summary of various interest retes for the i 984- i 985 season. 59 5. 1 Trensit ion probebll it i es for 1 act at ion number.
5.2 Costs .. prices and production characteristics u:::ed in the present study.
68
69 6. t The average per cov·l annual for the uncu11 ed and cui1 ed herd. 75 7. i The effect of changes in the price per kilogram milkfat on the
average per cow annualised present value.
7 The effect of chan!~es in tJ1e price per kilogram of rnanufacturin!~
beef on the average per coY·t annuaiised present value.
7.3 The effect of changes in the price heifer replacement on the average per co·w annual i sed present ve 1 ue.
7.4 The effect of changes in interest rate on the average per cow annue!l i sed present va 1 ue.
7.5 Trte effect of changes in the rf.lte of genetic improvement on the oven:Jge per cow onnuo 1 i sed present vo 1 ue.
7.6 The pflrameters used in the testing of the response of the models
7"7 '.I
to che-mges in rnilkfflt find rnC~nufflcturing beef prices.
The effect of chflnges to the rnflnufacturing beef find milkfat
'II 81
84
85
86
88
prices on the average per cow ;:mnual i sed present va i ue. 89 7.8 The effect of ignoring the probability of fflilure and death
on the average per cow annual i sed present ve~ 1 ue.
7.9 The changes to average per CO'N annualised present value due to chages in the planning horizon.
7.10 The effect of changin!~ the definition of the celving date state 5 to em erodi c state from em nonerodi c state on the
average per CO\*t annual i sed present value.
90
91
97
i The optimum replacement time for the undiscounted and discounted case, assuming i dent i ca 1 rep 1 acement.
4. i The CO"N S!JStern di
A agram the flow of data through intraherd blup model ... ...,.,
4.3 The decision is in
1 in year 1.
a ..
t. mg 1 inthe annuity
1 i ty that a cow was in category
program.
5.1 Flo"N diagram 5.2 Fl ovt diagram
illustration
the dynarnic models prograrns.
resui the ty model
6th 1 actat ions.
illustration of for the dynamic 1 mode 1 from and tenth l
An ill on of the resui for dynamic2 model from
2nd, 6th and ions.
7.1 An illustration the of changing the mil price from
$4.60/kg on the annualised present value for cows in their lactation.
7.2 An illustration of the effect changing interest rate from 0.0001% 15% on the annualised present value for
cows in their 6th lactation.
7.3 An 111ustration of the effect of changes in the dairy and beef prices on the annuaiised present value for cows in their 6th lactation and the dynamic 1 modeL
'v'i l
7 27
38
61
76
78
82
87
92 7.4 An Hlustrat1on of the effect of igoring the probability of death and
invohmtory replocement on the onnuolised present volue for
c:o'NS in their 6th 1 actot ion. 93 7.5 An illustrt~tion of the effect of cr·,anging tr1e planning horizon from
5 to 15 years on the en nut~ 1 i sed present va 1 ue for both
dynamic models for covvs in their 6th lectt~tion. 94 7.6 An i11ustrt~tion of u·,e effect of cht~nging the definition of the
fifth calving dt~te ct~te!~ory from t~n ercujic state to em nonerodic
stt~te on the emnuallsed present vt~lue for cows in H1eir 6tr1
1 t~ctt!t ion. 95
