Both Oran Park and Turner Road will fulfill strategically important roles for the early success of the South West Growth Centre. Oran Park Town Centre's role in the development of the southern half of the South West Growth Center will be influenced by a number of factors.
Project Scope
Limitations
This part of the report provides a background analysis of Sydney's employment needs, particularly in South West Sydney, an overview of the Oran Park and Turner Road precincts and a discussion of MacroPlan's approach.
Background
The strategy seeks to better integrate employment and population growth in sub-regions, particularly to ensure that job growth matches population growth in fast-growing sub-regions. This strategy is important as the co-location of jobs and population encourages residents to work near their residence and in turn reduces the need for infrastructure and the cost to the economy.
Locational overview
Oran Park will include a town center with approximately 50,000 m2 of retail space (including 10,000 m2 of large goods adjacent to the town centre). An opportunity for employment land has been highlighted to the north of the Oran Park area opposite North Road. The supply of a large volume of heavy goods to this site at the beginning of the development phase of Oran Park would affect the growth of the city centre.
The district will act as a provider of employment opportunities for residents of Oran Park and Turner Road, as well as residents of Marylands and Catherine Fields. The Oran Park and Turner Road areas will occupy strategically important roles that will influence the early success of the South West Growth Centre. It will be important for Oran Park Town Center to complement and not compete with the existing Camden Town Center and Narellan.
Methodology
It offers the opportunity to provide employment for Oran Park's own residents and residents, with industries that suit the skills of many new residents. It is one of the most important parcels of non-fragmented residential land for the South West Growth Center and is crucial for the early delivery of plots. It will be crucial to create local employment opportunities in the Oran Park area to encourage sustainable commuting where possible.
While a calculation of land volume or area is important, the expected size of the market for employment land and growth in the industry must be reviewed. The calculation of the area requirement in Oran Park Town Center has been undertaken depending on the expected levels of catchment expenditure of the town centres. MacroPlan has assumed that the Oran Park area will act as a primary catchment and that households in Turner Road, Marylands and Catherine Fields will act as a secondary catchment with significant flow of expenditure to other retail centres.
Growth Centres Commission Development Code
Further detailed guidance may be considered for industrial and employment land depending on the market and character being created. In mixed-use city centers it is important to provide public transport within walking distance. The objective of the Code to provide flexibility to allow employment centers and estates to develop over time and in stages is important.
Employment lands will also need to be staged to accommodate growth over a 10-15 year period. In order to promote the economic growth of the region and to enable a high degree of regional self-restraint and control, employment lands and mixed-use retail centers should have flexible zoning. In conclusion, the Code provides initial guidelines to ensure the hierarchy of centers and the location of employment lands and town centers.
Current supply in the South West
The Department of Planning does not currently regularly report on the extent of industrial land that is zoned in South West Sydney. The South West region of Sydney has become more important to the Sydney industrial land market in recent years. Two key industrial sites, Keylink Industrial Center and Moorebank Business Pak, have the potential to add over 200,000m2 of warehouse space to the market over the next few years.
Available supply in existing nodes
Vacancies are not evenly distributed across South Western Sydney and are held tightly to limited locations and plot sizes. The South West supply equation points to a strong opportunity for Turner Road, especially from 2008 onwards.
Market overview
Annual Land absorption
The best specification of industrial land at Turner Road considering the likely workforce catchment area.
National Trends and Opportunities
Industry Segments
In this sector, there is the greatest demand for smaller blocks m2 up to 1 ha for light industry/small local businesses, e.g. SBPs attract a wide range of service providers and may include manufacturing and processing/packaging/distribution industries seeking a high amenity location as well as equipment rental, places of worship, undertakers and police and emergency services. Technology Parks - similar block sizes but high amenity values with high standards of landscaping and built, are more akin to an office park.
Drivers for South West Sydney
The Need for Industrial Land – Labour Market Demand
This allows us to predict the number of residents in Oran Park and Turner Road who will be in the blue collar workforce and therefore work in industrial premises or related industry. This section assesses the likely industrial land supply required to support labor self-sufficiency in the Oran Park and Turner Road catchments. Derived estimate of blue collar jobs per occupied hectares and blue collar jobs per hectares (including vacant land).
Using the benchmark of 40 blue-collar jobs per hectare of industrial land (as highlighted above), the following table provides an indication of the potential industrial land supply required for Oran Park and Turner Road to achieve self-sufficiency in blue-collar employment. The industrial land required for self-sufficiency in blue-collar employment is estimated at approximately 148ha by 2023. Many of the blue-collar workers at Oran Park and Turner Road will look for medium- to longer-term jobs at Lowes Creek or Bringelly if those industrial nodes begin development.
Supply of Industrial Land
Timing
Further, assuming that Turner Road can deliver up to 15 per cent of this employment need in the south-west region of Sydney over its development cycle, the following delivery timeframe could be established. This could be accelerated to 8 years (or 10 acres per year) if Turner Road played a more important role in providing local blue collar jobs.
Segmentation
The requirement for a smaller size environment can be achieved with a Master planned property (or several properties) with appropriate amenity controls including building materials, foundations, landscaping and car parking and storage. In the short term, this could be directed at meeting the demand from local businesses for areas between 1,500 and 4,000 m². There are a number of grounds that indicate there may be a strong market for this activity.
Typical examples of successful world-class Business Park developments include areas in the order of 30 hectares to create critical mass in the supply of office components. However, the type of office likely to be provided on Turner Road would be ancillary to other uses, including manufacturing and warehousing.
Supply and product mix in Turner Road sites
This section provides an assessment of future retail opportunities for a proposed town center at Oran Park in the context of outer south-west Sydney. The retail assessment will identify the most appropriate size of the town center in terms of retail space. It will also provide advice on increasing demand for retail space in the designated trade area based on averages.
Trends in Retailing
The format from which retail is supplied is only part of the story when analyzing changes in the retail industry. Understanding consumer lifestyles and household structures helps develop the overall picture of the dynamic retail environment. Predominant lifestyle changes include increased female participation in the workforce, increased disposable income and increased expenditure on services and luxury items, declining household sizes (single-person households), reduced traditional families and the aging of the population.
Current Supply in Outer South-Western Sydney
NSW / ACT Shopping Centre Directory
This assessment reveals that the main retail competition for Oran Park is to the south, which includes Narellan Town Centre, Mt Annan Market and Camden Central Shopping Centre.
Projecting Retail Demand
The projected population for the Oran Park shopping area is given in the table below. The Camden SLA is used to project the expenditure profile of future residents of Oran Park and Turner Road. In reality not all retail spending by residents of the shopping area will be captured in Oran Park.
Many residents will spend money outside Oran Park in areas such as Narellan, Campbelltown, Liverpool and the proposed Leppington town centre. As illustrated in Table 13 below, the results of the sustainable floor area assessment for the Oran Park Trade Area, combined with potential retention levels, indicate that the trade area categories will generate demand for 58,156 m² of retail floor space by 2026 and 77,278 m² by 2036. If the delivery of Leppington is delayed, committed expenditure at Oran Park Town Center will be higher.
Retail Assessment Outcome
Oran Park Town Centre Configuration and Employment
Retail configuration outside Oran Park Town Centre
The later stages from 2030 provide the opportunity for further supply of large goods trade in connection with the city centre. McIntosh Land Northern local center has been provided since 2011 due to its longer distance from Oran Park Town Centre. A limit of 1,500m2 on supermarket floor space would be appropriate to ensure that full line supermarkets operated in Oran Park Town Center are the primary 'retail anchors' in the region, consolidating spending in that centre.
In addition to providing a hardware store (which would be in keeping with industrial uses in the area) there may be an opportunity to provide some bulky goods adjacent to Badgally Road and Camden Valley Way at Turner Road in the medium to longer term. Lots are being released at Catherine Fields from 2015 at a rate of around 300 per annum or more adding to the retail expenditure pool and providing impetus for the sustainability provision of additional retail. Marylands are also coordinated and released with a rapid lot supply of up to 500 lots per year from 2015 providing additional support for the Oran Park Town Center but this is unlikely given the supply of lots envisaged from Oran Park and the competition they face would provide.
Oran Park and other town centres
Land Use at Turner Road
