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nt
H.J. FOUNTJ\I!iE
1 'J72
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i i.
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ACKNO jL ;u·1 .HLWl'J
For beneficial discuaoion and euidance throughout thin :Jtudy the author is indebted to his supervisor tlr ,•,. J. '.'Ja.rd.
i i i.
L'he helpfulness of members of the Aaricul tural
~conomics und Farn Management Department is gratefully acknowledged, eapecially that of Messrs 1i..H. Hughes,
,, • G. Payne, Dr ,, • r.. Bchrodor and Professor H. J . l'ounsley.
?ina.ncial a.aaistance from the Department of Agriculture, the New ~oaland Dairy 3oard and from the
:~anawatl.' Co-oporntive 1)~1ry Cor~rany is ackno·:ledged with gratitude.
The Co-operation and interest shown by the participating fnmoro in the survey is gratefully
ackno~~lod.ged, as is the aasistanco of Hr 3. ~. Baker, General Hannger of the Hanal'latu Co-op•: ·~ati ve Dairy Com )any and
Nr D. Johnston, an advisory officer with the ~lew ~ealand
Dairy Jo •rd.
C:f'IPTE'!") III
iv.
page
i i i iv vii
X
1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Jcope of the study 3
1. 3 ,?oview of literature pertaining to
the structure of .• ·'. dairy fnrr:ting 10
1.4 OVerseas review of structural changes
affecting dairying 25
N:: ·: ~::ALAND' :1 '1GAI cu;:.·r•u:Uu ... Il'l.?trr.:J t"J'lD OUTPUT.:>. ;,r; lfi.~TO~IC.~L 1LVIr .. i
2.1 Introduction
2.2 ,:ggregative gross farn income 2.3 Gross productivity
2.4 Partial productivity trendo 2.5 Hajor inputa
2.6 Summary
rn.v .~SALAND AG:HCULTUHAL [,,dOUR .:HrUATIO l. I'A!.il' Arm i1lWJ :CT•~D
Primary and tot.al labour force
·.stimation of the total agricultural labour force
t.stimates of future manpower required in agriculture o.s made by tho
Agricultural Development Conference (1964) and the National Development Conference (1968)
Composition of the agricultural 1 bour force - ith emphasis on owner-operators Total l:;uropean owner-operators
Proj otionsa A g neral. co ent
Proj otione of' total owner•operatorsz 1966-2006
Relationship between the total number of owner-operators d employee
Dairy farmer owner-operators
Projections of' dai o ner-operators:
1966-2006
51 51 52
55 57 60 68
71
?6 78
87
·..;HAPT:.;n IV
CH.P1'ER VII
APPEttDICES
v.
4.1 Introduction 94
4.2 Jeaoription ot the ourvey rea and
comparison with other dairyin5 diatricto
o.f Hew ~eals.nd
94
4 . ;
Formation of the ;Anawatu Jo-operative~airy Company :.imited 102
4.4 .:election of survey farms 102
1~.5 ':election of tho survey period 103 Ji.G Tho quee:ti·:>nn:.drc - general background. 104 /1.7 ;onduc ting the survey 109 4.8 iesults of the survey. Cho.ra.cteriatics
of the ?3 ourvoyed tnrmo: 1963-69 110 4.9 .)ocio-oconomio .ap eta of tho aurvoy
farms 120
}Yif'Z'ii;.;SI., AND CH ·.rU.Cl'I;RISTIC~; OF 'mE
AV~:R\n!·: .:~LL ORGANI;jED t'ARH 137
5.1 Introduction 137
5.2 Th ~ypothosi 137
5.3 Identiticution of well organized farms 139 5.4 :haracteristica of the aver~:c well
orcnnized farm 142
5.5 fhe characteristics of the average well oreanizod farm compared with the 'uverabe tara• obtained !roo the
survey farms 142
5.6 ~umaary 144
CH;. :ACT' ;~:r.., ..:1:...., Jf' ~.I£ f~!:.1. I d:tA~I .... 1-:.J ·; ~1 ··-.. .'U t~E
AND A C .. :-.lt'l.RI SON 0.1<.., t'H!J s·rnUCl'UH _. . lTt! 'J.~{;u'
v.UR! .3'1'~1J>J'L'UR!~ v3..:.~l;'~V'SD 1'0 .lS Ir\ };:I';T NCB
ll: THV. .. iUJVE. / •. EA 'HZ 1968-69 14-8
6.1 Introduction 148
6.2 Aasumptiona in constructing th
hypothetical rationalized truotur 148 6.) Basis
tor
re-organization 1496. 4
Char cterietics of the rationalizedstructur 150
6. 5
CoQp ison and a consequences in movina tro thoo
erved1963-69
etructure to the r tionali truoture 153
6. 6
Rejection or ace ptanoe of hypothe i ?160 6. 7
R sons for r tionali ing sub•optimallJ 1626. 8
Soma 16~SUJ.D-1ARY AUD CONC.:.USI N~
7.1 Is rationali ation of th pre nt structur worthw ile?
7.2 Future pro poet ot e small hord
165
170 17)
s .. ;
1·'Cl'£D BI LIOGRAP178 192
(i)
(11)
•
?he refercnceo for the t bles and for tho toxt arc independent, e.g. where Ibid. app~ars in a t~bl refere~ce, it
-
refers to n pr vious tabl reference. 1h& signs liated below have been used throuchout the thesis and have the following interpretation:<:. loss than
~ leGs than or eqU!Ll to
> Greater than
~ere~ter than or equal to
vi.
.. 'able
?ereentnge or dairy forms with net farm incomes of less tha:1 ·2,000 per annum
Dair-y ?n.rmcr•J • tC!r"'ls of exchange
Ca ·ita.l ex)enditure on .1. ;. :.>airy .tams
Averace net r~rm lnc~es for factor-; supply farms with difforinv acr~ageo
Data pertaininG to tho .r •. ~. dairy indust r,n 1750 - 1970
:·iumbcr of holdingc in each herd size group in .. nr;land and · los a.nd 11c. ;~eal0l'1d
F'arms of one hectare and over, nwnoer and average :ize
;haro of persons o~ployed i n agriculture as percenta ,c of total numberc in employ~ent
Annual avcraee compound gro h ratoe. Pcr cent per
ye~
7he ch!Ulging com:)osition of real inputs making up total non-factor inputs. Averages tor 1921-23, 1946-48 o.nd 1964-66
Index numbers of coota and of noninal award ndult me.le ago rate
.~-'rimcry produc rs as poro ntage of breadvinnors and ot tot l population
Total agricultural 1 bour force 1926-1966
3. 3
Agricultural De.olopment Conrorence•a osti te of labour requireoenta 19723. 4
v. timatea o m po er require e-nta tor t ingvii.
Page 3 4 5 16
20 27
31 40
46
(includi t m contr cting) 57
Total .r..uropean omer-op r tora. Ori inal dat up to and including 1966
Comp iaon
ot
total owner-op rator d the numberot
holcU. :;. 11 crea Proportion of totnl .uropage grou o er-oper to
61
,,
6S
'fable
:;. 8
?er cent not rnteo of entry and withdrawal betwe n decennial ceneuoeo. 1916-1966Results of three multiple regression equations of total owner-operators on time
,Juomary of projections
Jatio of employees to total owner-operatoro 1396-1966
~otel .uropoan dairy owner-operntora.
da to. up to and including 1966
.\ctuo.l
3.13 A com~r~~ieon between n bar of herds with ten or
~ore cows and the total nuober of suppliers to
Page
68
77
80
dairJ companies
82
3.14 7wo estimatos o! herd size average 83 3.15 ~roportions of total ·urope d·iry o nor-operators
OJ at;o ~oups 85
.}.16 .;orn.Joncnto of tho perccntn,.-;o c!lant;e in the totnl number of do.iry owncr-operutoro between t~o
succ ssive decennial censuses 89
3.17 lesu1ts of four multiple regression equationo of
dairy ower-operators (excluding ~1aorio) on time 89
}.18 5~~
or
projections 91~~.1 Hor::1a: temperature (0./), {ailU'all (inches) nnd
sunshine (hourn) 97
4.2 Nuober
or
herds by herd Gizo. 1<J5v-S1, 1960-61and 1968-69. .~ielecte4 diatricta 100
4. 3
The n ber and percent e of milking cows b7ae~octed diotriete aa at 31st January 101
4. 4
Compa.ri on ot herd size diotributions: 1?68-69 1134.5 of re ults 119
~.6 Age dio~rioution of the
98
farmers 1Z14.? a.ey of three possible duey otructuree that
could ld.ot in th suryey ar a 1 19 0 1 127
4. 8
P~duction Bt ti ticn tor tho w tu Co-operntivDairy CompQDJ.
1964/ 65 -
19?1/?2135
'!'able
5.1 Th nverag total net farm income derived froo average total oas farm income tor diff rent
ix.
Page
herd sizes 140
5.2 .Jpecifications of the 'avcrase well organiz d
taro• 143
.5.3 ;'Grccnt.nge increase in reapoctive ehara.ctcriatics or the average 'Or far.. character.istioa formed from tho ')L tarz:1u, conpa.!"ed with the oharactori.:;tica ot
the nveraee well organized fart~. (,. : • • F.) 145 6.1 :;o •. .u-isvn of the oricin l and rationali~cd
atructurc 153
6.2 _;ompooltion of the labour !orce under the two
Gtructur s 157
Jiff rcnccs in inputo as betwe n the orieinal rationalized structures
~.4 laluoa of added not tara 1~coMe (~74,631) when cad tclized in per::etuit· il t different ratoo
or
Lstcrcst
rot~ortion of milkfat sup)lied by herds r;l th
<.100 cows ·nd tho~~e with ~ 100 cows for three
scaoono, 1?68-69, 1969-70 ~md 19? ?1
t\verQ€·& net and averaee roal not farm inco· e pc ..
dair-J fc:.r 1 )60-G1 to 1970-71
..,..,cu·· n.tion~ ropreaenting own r-opero.tors
Code number. ocoupatione and numbers in e ch as group for all ot tus cl sos
d
God n r , oocupationa group for 'emp oy r • and tho occupations li t d occupation o e o in t
d numb rs in each
ooount• olaeoo. tor blo B.1. ot. or
H Jtandard val e and da·r cow equivale t ooeftici nt
161
162
175
178 130
182
191
Figure
1.1 (b)
-.'ercontage number of hold.inzs ~~rincipally in dairyin... by o.crenge size groupe for years:
1966, 196'1, 1~)68 a.nd 1%9
: ercent ~e number of holdin;:;s ":lili-:int herds itn 10 or more cows on Jan. 31, in 1951, 1961 and 1969
•rotal nur.'lber ot aup...,lier , horde with ~ 10 cows and averaGe herd size: 1950/51 - 1970/71
Aver~1e production per cow, tot 1 butterfat 'at :)ttll' and number of d irJ cows in milk: 1950/.51 - 19'10/71
;rosn and net fnrrn income, 1921-67. out;)ut ( 1 )4')/50 ?ricesJ, 1921-67
Jrosa output, agp:regato inpu: .. s and erosa prJ(;uct.i..vity, 1')21-67
. artial )ro:.iucti vi ty ratios. ·1 ')~1-6l
ie.ll ;;;rowth of aac~1inerv, fertilizer and limo.
1 }~1-67
2.5 Tot:-..1. no:1-fo.ctor 1n;H1ts, real capi to.l and la:>our.1921-67
Nucuor ot Lu!"o"e n owner-operators. 1 '196 and 1?16 cohort ·
Total nunb r of owner-op rator (excluding
.~oris). Actual data and v iou projection
<
• ooo >
Th n ber of owner-op ratora and nloy
1896-1966 •
Nu b r of dairy o er•oper tore. 1906, 1926 I.Uld 1946 cohort
... otal n
t ori ).
( '000)
er ot dairy o cr-op rator (excludin Actual t and Y oua projection •
M p of t
Di tribution of f
un 1
t
aai~e {by cr )
tor •
x.
19
19
23
24
41 42
66
75
79
86
92
95
112
"'if"Ure
!t.3
4. 4
4. 5
(a)4. 5
(b)4 •
.5 (c) 4.5 (d)fage
Distl" bution of r::irdng cows by herd. size for
the survey fnrmo 112
Distribution of crosa farm income for the
survey f ~trtns
)iatrlbut ton o.._ CJil!d•nt/cow ratios
;)ir.:trl lUtion of ·•ilkfat/total correct d
· Cl"OD.· 'f'> Nttioe
vintri~ution ot cows/total corrected acronee rn.tioo
Dintrl~ution of cown/labour unit ratios
115 117
117
11'1 11?
