The Integrated Scenarios Explorer ‘ISE’ [4]
Economic Scenarios
Agenda
•
9.00 – 9.15 Introduction•
9.15 – 9.30 Questions•
10.15 – 12.00 Airport expansion•
12.00 – 13.00 Lunch•
13.00 – 14.30 Convention centreTentative Only, Ask Questions
Sustainable pathways 2
•
2009 to 2015 MBIE funded research programme focused on achieving sustainable urban futures ($3.8 million over 6 years)•
Builds on previous ‘Sustainable Pathways’ (2003-9) and ‘Creating Futures’ (2006-10) programmes•
Collaborative policy-science research programmeSustainable pathways 2
•
Mediated Modelling (Assoc Prof Marjan van den Belt).Stakeholders directly engaged in formulating and building models.
Reduces gap between model builders and end-users.
•
Spatial Dynamic Modelling (Dr Garry McDonald). Enables end- users to simulate visually future implications. Integrates socio- economic, environmental, land use, and transport models into a spatially explicit and dynamic computer model.•
Embedding into Council Processes (Melanie Thornton GW, Regan Solomon AC and Dr Beat Huser WRC). Reduces gap between model building capacity and use of models. An end-user led objective.What is ISE?
Society Economy
Environment
ResourcesWastes Goods
Labour
Services
Stewardship
Spatially-Explicit Multi-scale
Dynamic
ISE integrated sub-modules
ISE is about integration!
Demand side
Final
demand ($)
Output ($)
Supply side
Change in final demand ($)
Reduction in output ($)
Land use allocation
- Spatial planning - Suitability
- … t-1
Land that could not be allocated
Conversion to land use demands (ha)
* Population – domestic
consumption
* Exports
* Capital
formation
How does it work?
Land useTime Loop
&
0 0.5 1
rand
tv
ln 1
& interaction weights
Suitability
&
Accessibility
&
Transition Rule
Change cells to the land use for which they have the highest transition
potential until regional demands are met
Zoning
&
Land use at time T+1
Transition Potentials
=
Stochastic perturbation
Simulating policy options
Value of a policy relevant indicator
• Problem identification
• Design of solutions
• Exploration of solutions
Policy
intervention
External event
Policy
intervention
External event Policy
intervention
• Analysis
• Evaluation
• Selection
• Authorization
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 GOAL
Alternative 4 Alternative 5 Alternative 6
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
• Recognition
• Diagnosis
What can ISE be used for?
Assessing the socio- economic and environmental impacts associated with:-
Urban issues
•
Spatial planning e.g. the Auckland plan•
Understanding the implications of zoning and road/port/airport infrastructure changes e.g. CRL, Transmission Gully, Western Link•
Residential, business and urban growth strategies e.g. Future proof•
Economic development strategies e.g. Auckland EDS•
Medium-long term planning Rural issues•
Catchment issues such as N, P loadings and sediment associated with intensive farming e.g. WRISS, EBoP, ES•
Land use change e.g. dairy conversion, carbon forestryWhat can ISE be used for?
•
Policy evaluation•
Quantifying trade-offs of different growth scenarios•
Implications of city form questions e.g. compact versus extended MULs•
Hazard impacts•
Spatial Economy•
Business land use and requirements by economic sector•
Residential land use by household type•
Infrastructure delivery programming (quanta and timing)•
Socio-Economic Impacts•
Future skills demand•
Labour force projections•
Identifies the mismatch between future jobs and skillsWho is using ISE?
•
ISE was originally developed for the Waikato Region in the Creating Futures Programme (MBIE)(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgEABCz1RrI)
•
ISE is also being developed in Auckland under Sustainable Pathways 2 Programme (MBIE)•
A similar model is also being constructed for Christchurch andAuckland under Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Programme (MBIE) covering infrastructure outages and natural hazard events
Economic model
Ecological
Energy use
Emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4) Solid waste
Land use Carbon footprint
Economic
Gross output Value added Employment (FTEs/MEC)
Multipliers
Social
Occupations
Infrastructure requirements Households
(Consumers)
Households (Labour)
Exports (Global value chains)
Capital formation
Economic model
Economic model
Household & export projections for all goods and services consumed under each scenario
Economy growth rates for 48 industries
Key socio-economic measures:
output, value added,
employment, businesses, occupations
Key environmental measures energy by type, emissions by type, land use, solid waste, ecosystem services
Economic interdependencies
$1,071m
Insuran ce Svc to
Fnn & Ins
$33m
$168m
$99m
$89m
Water supply
$84m
$108m
Communi c.Srvcs)
$274m
$113m
Non- metllc
$103m
$175m
$30m
Beverag es
$377m Wholes ale Furnitur e
Cultural
& Recr
$144m
Rub, Plst
Basic metals
$95m
Air trns
$515m
Textile &
Apparel
$134m
$112m Ptrlm
$52m
$91m
$69m
$58m
Strct
$188m
Mach &
equip
Transp Equipmt
$84m
$86m
$243m
$73m
$147m
$103m Busines
s Serv
$59m
Print, pub
& rec media
$256m
Real Estate
$281m
$147m
$219m
$159m
$173m
Industries driven by International & other region demand
Industries driven by local demand
Industries driven by intermediate demand
Demand and supply
•
Demand driven (householdconsumption, exports, capital), but with supply constrains e.g. land use, water
•
Other supply side effects are possible:labour shortages, skills shortages, peak oil, and so on
Dynamic economic model
Airport expansion scenario
•
Expansion of Wellington Airport to enable international flights (Airbus 350, 787 Dreamliner)•
This would enable people to fly directly into Wellington via several international destinations throughout the Asia Pacific region•
Initially 4 to 5 flights per week (19,000 NZR departures and 28,000 overseas visitor arrivals), within 3 years 29,000 NZR departures and 38,000 overseas visitor arrivals)Main impacts
•
Visitor impacts (direct $23.6m per year, total $43.5m per year)•
International student impacts (if increased from 4,800 to 10,000 then additional $70m per year)•
Likely increase in CBD property values increasing rates take.Within 10 years this could be $27m per year
•
Total cost $300m, direct $80-100m investment coupled with LG/CG investment of $200mVisitor impacts
•
Main economic impacts from spending by overseas visitors•
With 38,000 overseas visitors direct spend is estimated at $23.6m per year comprised of $5.3m hospitality, $7.9m retail and wholesale, culture and recreation $3m, air transport $4.9m and road transport$2.5m.
BERL vs ISE Economic Impacts
•
BERL estimate the total (direct, indirect and induced) economic impacts associated with overseas tourists to be $201243.5m•
ISE estimates the total economic impacts (direct and indirect) associated with overseas tourists to be $201235.0m; with induced impacts estimated to be $201242.1Land use change
Baseline 2031 Airport 2031
Land use change BS vs AE
Map comparison 2031 Baseline vs Airport Expansion
Airport & Convention Centre Scenario
• Based on Skycity’s proposed convention centre in Auckland
• Build cost of $402m
• Operational cost of $90m per year
• Assumptions
• Build is funded through Foreign Direct Investment
• All operational costs are net additional i.e. no displacement or transfer effects
• Overseas tourists expenditure increases by 30% above
airport expansion scenario
Economic Impacts
• Total value added $
2007116m based $
200790m + CAGR 0.5%
pa ongoing operational expenditure,
• Approximately 1900 jobs created
Land use change BS vs AE & CC
Map comparison 2031 Baseline vs Airport Expansion and Convention Centre
