IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Steve Maharey
Vice-Chancellor, Massey University
THE ENGINE OF THE NEW
NEW ZEALAND
MEGACHANGE
MEGACHANGE
FUTURE NZ
POPULATION
MASTER HEADING
UNDERSTAND & RESPOND
UNDERSTAND and RESPOND
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Prof Paul Spoonley
Pro Vice-Chancellor, College of Humanities and Social
Sciences,
Massey University
The Emergence of a New New Zealand
PAUL SPOONLEY
PRO VICE-CHANCELLOR
COLLEGE OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES MASSEY UNIVERSITY
The 21st century will bear witness to a sea change in population growth, composition and dispersal
Sarah Harper Demographic Trends and Implications for Employers Mercer, 2013
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION
DECLINING/SUB -REPLACEMENT
FERTILITY IMMIGRATION
AND
SUPERDIVERSITY REGIONAL DIVERGENCE/
PRIMATE CITY DOMINANCE
STRUCTURAL AGEING
HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR AN
AGEING POPULATION?
AGEING
WORKFORCE
Experience
Older workforce
Skills relevant?
Seniority
COSTS
Public debt
Health provision Demographic
liability Pension provision
POTENTIAL Healthier
More active
Better educated Encore
employment
DOMINANCE
Decline of prime age workforce
Silver economy
Age friendly
Dependency ratio
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
MONTHLY PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MIGRATION
SEPTEMBER 2004-2014
A QUARTER OF OUR POPULATION IS
COMPRISED OF IMMIGRANTS.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
IMMIGRATION AND SUPERDIVERSITY
IDENTITY
Multiculturalism
Who is a NZer?
POPULATION GROWTH
Replacement
Regional dispersal
SKILLS SUPPLY
Innovation/entrepreneurs Homeland connections
Global and mobile talent
AUCKLAND EFFECT
Super superdiverse
Immigrant dependent
Economic benefits
REGIONAL DIVERGENCE
POPULATION STAGNATION
Deaths
exceed births
Modest
immigration
Loss of younger cohorts
Service retention
65+ dominant REGIONS
Vision
Governance Wealth
(household)
Access to
education/R+D
AUCKLAND
Immigrant destination Internationally
connected
Disbenefits Agglomeration
effect
Ideapolis
60% population growth
SKILLS
Local supply Immigrants Depth of labour
market
Clusters
REGIONAL DIVERGENCE
SECULAR STAGNATION
(DECLINING POPULATION GROWTH WILL INHIBIT OR EVEN DEPRESS ECONOMIC GROWTH)
… NATURE IS GIVING US… AN INCREDIBLE AUSTERITY MEASURE, A NON-FISCAL CONTRACTION
Paul Krugman
“Secular Stagnation”
November 2014
POPULATION CHANGE, YEAR ENDED JUNE 2014
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Auckland Canterbury Waikato Wellington Otago BOP Rest of NZ
Natural Increase Net Migration
IN THE NEXT DECADE
THE GROWTH IN 65+ WILL ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF POPULATION GROWTH IN 56 OUT OF 67 TERRITORIAL AUTHORITIES
65+ WILL BE LARGER THAN 0-14 AGE GROUP
MORE WORKERS WILL RETIRE THAN ENTER THE WORKFORCE
IMMIGRATION WILL CONTRIBUTE MORE TO POPULATION GROWTH – IF IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
ASIAN COMMUNITIES WILL BE LARGER THAN THE MAORI COMMUNITY
REGIONAL SURVEY
HOUSEHOLDS, EMPLOYERS, YR 13 STUDENTS
AUCKLAND, WELLINGTON, CANTERBURY, WEST COAST AND SOUTHLAND
HOUSEHOLDS
LIVING WITH DIVERSITY Enjoy and engages
with diversity
LIBERAL TOWARDS DIVERSITY Benefits of diversity,
but not part of own lives
RESISTENT TOWARDS DIVERSITY
Concern about non-English language use, implications for
neighbourhood/community change, need to manage
immigration
EMPLOYERS
LABOUR MARKET MATCHING, INCLUDING
DATABASE FOR MATCHING (WITH TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS) INFLUENCING IMMIGRATION SKILLS SHORTAGE LIST
EMPLOYERS
IMMIGRATION AND WORKFORCE DIVERSITY
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THOSE WHO VALUED AND SOUGHT IMMIGRANTS
NO INTEREST: IMMIGRANTS NOT SUITABLY QUALIFIED, LOCAL LABOUR SUPPLY ADEQUATE, NOT CULTURALLY SUITED
SCHOOL LEAVERS
POSITIVE TOWARDS DIVERSITY
o ALTHOUGH DIVERSITY DEFINED IN DIFFERENT WAYS IN DIFFERENT AREAS
CONCERN ABOUT INTEGRATION
o ENGLISH LANGUAGE COMPETENCY
o ATTITUDES OF COMMUNITY (GENERATIONAL)
SAW COMMUNITY/NZ BECOMING MORE DIVERSE
CHALLENGES
DO WE NEED A POPULATION POLICY(IES)?
STRUCTURAL AGEING?
GROWING REGIONAL DIVERGENCE?
IMMIGRATION LEVELS AND DISTRUBUTION
What [we] really ought to be
doing are counterintuitive things [given secular stagnation]…
Paul Krugman November 2014
DO WE NEED A
POPULATION POLICY(IES)?
• STRUCTURAL AGEING?
• GROWING REGIONAL DIVERGENCE?
• IMMIGRATION LEVELS AND DISTRUBUTION
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Prof Paul McDonald
Pro Vice-Chancellor, College of Health,
Massey University
Our Future, Our Health
Professor Paul McDonald
Massey University College of Health
• Health care consumes 10% of GDP and growing
• How should we invest in health to maximize health and economic returns?
FUTURE HEALTH CHALLENGES
• Expensive drugs, diagnostics, and technologies for chronic diseases and end of life care are driving costs, not the
number of seniors
FUTURE HEALTH CHALLENGES
• Nutrition alters current &
future illness risks, AND the risk of our offspring for every human
• Climate change + population growth + urbanisation + growing middle class = nutrition and water insecurity
The rise of food poverty in the UK.
From Taylor-Robinson et al, 2013
FUTURE HEALTH CHALLENGES
Health is a set of social, economic,
political, and environmental challenges with medical implications.
NEW LENSES FOR HEALTH
• Complex systems thinking + large data bases + linkage and analytical methods
NEW LENSES FOR HEALTH
Impact of 30%
improvement in proportion under low income cut off, proportion with strong connections to
community, proportion with easy access to primary care, proportion who smoke or obese, proportion living in crowded homes on the number of Torontonians age 24 to 64 who
experience daily functional limitations (disability)
From: Mahamoud, etal.,2013
Behaviour and housing Access to primary health care
Improved social cohesion
Reduced poverty
The simulated relative
impact of a 25% reduction in poverty, 75% improvement in people with strong
connections to community, 80% improvement in
smoking and obesity rates, 70% improvement in
persons living in crowded homes on the number of Torontonians age 24 to 64 who experience 2 or more chronic illnesses
From: Mahamoud, et al., 2013
Baseline Behaviour Housing
Cohesion Income
• Post harvest processing, storing, shipping to reduce waste and enhance safety
• Policies to incentivise the development and distribution of nutritious foods and beverages
• Functional foods and bio-technologies
• Microbial therapies, especially the micro-biome
• Pro Bio Life (deliver probiotics thru more products)
• Remove unhealthy bits, add healthy bits (fortification)
• Ferri Pro & Ὠmelife to fortify food with iron and omega 3
• Improve nutritional bio-availability (absorption)
• Specialised foods for seniors, clinical populations, etc.
NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEALTH
HOW DO WE DELIVER HEALTH CARE DIFFERENTLY?
HOW DO WE BUILD SOCIAL CAPITAL AND NUTRITION SECURITY?
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Dominick Stephens
Chief Economist, Westpac
Average GDP growth by decade
The rising cost of National Superannuation
Labour force participation rates, age 55+
Contributions to annual population growth (%)
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Prof Richard Shaw
Associate Professor, Massey University
21
stcentury challenges:
20
thcentury tools
Why we need a step-change in the new New Zealand
Challenge 1: Housing
home ownership dream has become an expensive nightmare for some
houses are ‘over-priced and expensive by international standards’
annual fall in affordability in the year to September is 11.4%
LVRs reduce house price inflation by 4%, but Auckland bounces back 1st home buyers take out 10% all mortgage lending in September 2014
and will forever remain a dream for others
453,000 households now rent – a 26% increase on 2001 figures an Auckland household earning median income pays 35% on rent 13% of our elderly live in rented property – up from 2% in 2001
NB: All data in this show from 2014 BIMs (Treasury; RBNZ); StatsNZ Census
Challenge 2: Politics
we resolve housing (& other) issues through politics
but our 20th century political model is creaking for 2 reasons
Life in Auckland
30%
household s
> $100K
47%
pop. think they have sufficient
income
50%
national IT jobs
40%
tourism spend
42%
national patents
52%
tax paid on incomes
> $1 million
People not voting in 2011
23%
earning
< $30K
42%
aged 18-24
60%
recent migrants
5%
aged
35% 65+
unemployed
67%
all unenrolled voters aged < 30
Challenges for the new NZ
dominant voices in politics: Auckland, old people & older New Zealanders
our present political system is marginalising the regions, young people &
recent migrants
without those voices, how do we rise to the challenges we face in the new New Zealand?
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
Q+A
PANEL DISCUSSION
Brett O’Riley
CEO, ATEED
Maj Campbell Roberts
Director,
Social Policy and Parliamentary Unit
Michelle Boag
boagallansvg
Prof Paul Spoonley
Pro Vice-Chancellor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey University
Q&A PANEL DISCUSSION
DO WE NEED A POPULATION POLICY? AND WHAT SHOULD IT CONSIDER?
HOW DO WE DELIVER HEALTH CARE DIFFERENTLY?
HOW DO WE BUILD SOCIAL CAPITAL AND NUTRITION SECURITY?
HOW DO WE MAKE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM MORE INCLUSIVE?
QUESTION SUMMARY
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM
IT’S OUR FUTURE
THE NEW NEW ZEALAND FORUM