Sensitivity study for the simulation of Tornado/Nor’wester during pre-monsoon season over Bangladesh using high resolution WRF-ARW model

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the Department of Physics, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology. Mahbub Alam, Professor, Department of Physics, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology, Khulna, for his kind guidance and supervision and for his constant encouragement throughout the research work. Shibendra Shekher Sikder, Head, Department of Physics, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology for his strong support in various ways during the entire period of my study in this department.

52 and (i-j) LFC using six different MP schemes joining the KF and BMJ schemes in Dhaka on 7 April 2012. WDM6 WRF dual-moment SBU class 6 : Stony Brook University SLP Sea level pressure RH : Moisture relative MR : Maximum Reflect Numerical Weather Forecast Air Force AFWA Weather Agency. RWMR : Rain Water Mixing Ratio CWMR Cloud Water Mixing Ratio LFC : Free Convection Level MWS : Maximum Wind Speed LCL : Elevated Condensation Level.

Abstract

Introduction

The meteorological parameters simulated by the model are consistent with each other and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of intense convective activity. The results were encouraging in terms of time and place of occurrence. 2014) showed in a study that the incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) together with the release of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at lower levels leads to the development of lower instability over India. .

Review of Literatures

Pre-monsoon Rainfall
Pre-monsoon Temperature
Convective Inhibition (CIN)
Level of Free Convection (LFC)
Lifted Condensation Level (LCL)
Latent Heat (LII) Flux
Nor'westers
Thunderstorm

Single-cell Thunderstorm

Squall line thunderstorms

Nor'westers are more frequent in the late afternoon due to the influence of surface heating in producing convection currents in the atmosphere. The additional uplift of the moist air at the Meghalaya Plateau causes higher amounts of rainfall in the northeast. The level of free convection is the height in the atmosphere where the ambient temperature drops faster than the moist adiabatic lapse rate of a saturated air parcel at the same level.

Fig. 1 .1: Single cell thunderstonu 2.9.2 Multi-cell clusters

IIIIIL1

Tornado

Life Cycle of Tornado
Damage by a Tornado
Favorable conditions for tornado genesis

A tornado is a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the Earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. By twisting due to uneven wind speed within the very narrow band of the circulation. The advice given in tornado safety rules in the US is to open doors and windows on the opposite side of the building to that of the approaching tornado, thus facilitating the equalization of atmospheric pressure.

Climatological aspects of nor'westers

Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model

Kessler Scheme
WRF Single-Moment 6-class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6)
Thompson Scheme
Stony Brook University (SBLT) Microphysics
WRF Double-Moment 6-class Microphysics Scheme (WDM6)
Cumulus ParameterizatiOfl

Kain-Fritsch (1(F) Scheme

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL)

Yonsei University (YSU) scheme

Map Projection

Mercator projection

Arakawa Staggered C-grids

The memory, i.e., the size of the fourth dimension in these arrays, is allocated depending on the needs of the selected scheme, and the species attachment is also applied to all those required by the microphysics option. This is one of the first schemes to parameterize snow, graupel and mixed phase processes. The WRF-single-moment-6-class (WSM6) microphysics scheme has been one of the microphysics process options in the WRF model.

Methodology

Methodology of Stability Index .1 Cross Total Index (CT)

Total Totals Index (TT)
K-Index (1(I)

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is a measure of atmospheric instability and defines the vertically integrated positive motion of a rising parcel. It is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if it rose a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere. Convective inhibition (CIN) is a measure of the stability of the atmosphere and defines the vertically integrated negative motion of a rising parcel.

Model Setup

The model is configured in single domain, 3 km horizontal grid spacing with I 73x225 grids in the east-west and north-south directions and 28 vertical planes. Time step of integration is set to 15 seconds for maintaining computational stability as the model uses third-order Runge-Kutta time integration scheme. The detail of the model and domain configuration is given in Tableland, the model domain is shown in Fig.

3.1 : WRF model domain for Nor'wester/Tornado simulation in Bangladesh Table 1: Observed and studied Squall line/Nor'wester in Bangladesh. Initial conditions Three-dimensional real data (FNL: 1 0 x 1°) Lateral boundary condition Defined options for real data. In this research, we used six different MP (e.g., Kessler, Lin et al., WSM6 class graupel scheme, Thompson graupel, SBU, and WDM6,) schemes combined with two different CPs (Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller-Janjic). schemes.

The time period is not more than one hour for the formation to the distribution of the system. For the study of these short-period events, one must simulate/analyze the data within the time of occurrence of the events. The elevated condensation level (LCL), latent heat flux (LH), total cross index (CT), total vertical index (VT), total total index (TT) and K index (KI) were calculated at the stations where squall/ nor 'west/ Tornado occurs.

We also calculated the maximum vertical velocity from the model output, which indicates the maximum convection.

Fig. 3.1 : WRF Model Domain for simulating Nor'wester/Tornado in Bangladesh Table 1: Observed and studied Squall line/Nor'wester in Bangladesh

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Nor'wester of 07 April 2012

Sea Level Pressure (SLP)
Temperature at 2m Level
Vertical Velocity
Vorticity
Relative Humidity (RH)
Maximum Reflectivity (MR)
Cross Total Index (CT)
Vertical Totals index (VT)
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)
Latent Heat (LH) Flux
Rain Water Mixing Ratio (RWMR)
Cloud Water Mixing Ratio (CWMR)
Maximum Wind Speed (MWS) at 10 m Level
Vertical Velocity
Relative Humidity (RH) at 2m Level
Vertical Totals Index (VT)
Klndex(KI)

All other MPs associated with the KF and BMJ schemes simulated RH up to 200 hPa. After that, it slowly decreased and fluctuated continuously for all MPs associated with the KF scheme until 1000 UTC. It then decreased and then fluctuates continuously for all MPs associated with the KF scheme.

After that, it is found oscillating and decreasing for all MPs connecting with BMJ scheme. After that, it is found in an irregular pattern for all MPs connecting with BMJ scheme. After that it increased and varies continuously for all MPs connecting with KF scheme.

After this, it has increased significantly and also fluctuates for all members of the Norwegian Parliament who connect to the KF scheme. The maximum updraft for all MPs connecting to KF and BMJ schemes on 28 April 2012 is shown in Fig. CAPE fluctuates (Fig. 4.2.8a) in an irregular pattern for all MPs connecting to the KF scheme.

Model simulated time variation of C[N for six different MPs linking with KF and BMJ schemes at Chittagong is shown in Fig. After 1200 UTC, the simulated LH flux is almost zero for all LPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes. All other MPs that couple to KF and BMJ schemes are simulated CWMR up to 200 hPa.

Fig. 4.1.2: Time variation (5 minute interval) of SLP at (a-b) Chittagong and (c-d) Dhaka and comparison of observed and model simulated 3-hourly SLP at (e-f) Chittagong and Dhaka using six different MP schemes coupling with KF and BMJ schemes respectiv

Nor'wester of 27 April2014

Sea Level Pressure

IEi 30

Vorticity
Relative Humidity (RH)
K Index (K!)
Relative Humidity (RH) at 2m Level

The maximum RH is found after 1800 UTC for all MPs associated with the KF and BMJ schemes. Reflectivity (dBZ) at Sylhet is not simulated for six different MPs associated with KF and BMJ schemes. From 06:15 UTC, the KI increased to around 07:40 UTC for all MPs connecting to the KF and BMJ schemes.

4.3.7(c-d)) and then decreased sharply towards zero for all MPs associated with the KF and BMJ schemes. The LFC for six different MPs associated with KF and BMJ schemes at Sylhet is shown in Fig. Model of simulated temporal variation of SLP for six different MPs connecting to KF and BMJ schemes in Barisal are presented in Fig.

The model's simulated time variation CT for six different MPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes at Barisal is presented in fig. 4.4.7(g-h)) KI is nearly constant and then fluctuates for all MPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes. Model-simulated time variation of CAPE for six different MPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes at Barisal is shown in Fig.

Model-simulated time variation of C[N for six different MPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes at Barisal is presented in fig. Time variation of LCL for six different MPs coupling with KF and BMJ schemes at Barisal is shown in fig. All other MPs coupling to KF and BMJ schemes have simulated CWMR up to 200 hPa.

Fig. 4.3.2: Time variation of(a-b) SLP, (c-d) MWS at lOm, (e-f) Temperature at 2m, (g-h) RH at 2m and (i-j) MR using six different MP schemes coupling with KF and BMJ schemes at Khulna on 27 April 2014

Conclusions

MWS at lOm level is simulated by Thompson-KF and WSM6-BMJ almost half an hour later than the observed time of occurrence of nor'wester at Dhaka and WSM6-KF at the time of observation at Chittagong on 7 April 2012. KS-KF , Lin -KF, WSM6-KF and WDM6-KF combinations have simulated higher wind speed at 10 m level on 28 April 2012 outside Chittagong and Dhaka stations. After 0925 UTC, the simulated MWS is found closer to the observed time of squall at Barisal for WDM6-KF, WSM6-KF, Lin-BMJ, and WSM6-BMJ combinations at Chittagong on 15 May 2014.

The maximum temperature at 2 meters height is simulated by Lin-KF, WSM6-KF and WDM6-KF combinations at the time of observation in Dhaka and in Chittagong; the temperature suddenly dropped after the observed time of nor'westerly occurrence using the combinations Lin-KF, WSM6-KF and WDM6-KF on April 7, 2012. The maximum temperature is found for all MPs coupling to the KF schedule at 0640 UTC, which is too early than the observation time of the shower at Barisal on May 15, 2014. The maximum reflectivity (MR) is found after 0900 UTC for SBU-KF, WDM6-KF and WSM6-KF combinations in Chittagong and around 0500 UTC for Lin.

CIN is found at a minimum around the time of observation of nor'westers in Chittagong and Dhaka for all MPs associated with the KF and BMJ schemes on 7 and April 2012 and 15 May 2014. The bulk of LHF is found by the WSM6 and WDM6 schemes joining with KF and BMJ schemes at various stations close to the time of observation of the squall/nor'westers under study. The simulated LCL is located at a minimum near the time of the squall/nor'westers observations for the WSM6-KF, WDM6-KF, and Lin-BMJ combinations on 7 and 28 April 2012 and 15 May 2014.

The simulated LFC is found at a minimum in and around the time of observation of showers/nor'westers for WDM6-KF, WSM6-KF and WDM6-BMJ combinations on April 7 and 28, 2012 and May 15, 2014.

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